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Kevin Gausman 2018 Outlook

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On 4/14/2018 at 12:08 PM, Members_Only_76 said:

Anyone have the gull to start him in weekly leagues with the 2 starts?

 

 

I am. 

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1 minute ago, Akecheta said:

I am. 

 

I was...but no longer as now he's only getting 1 start @ DET. 


Good luck to the brave.

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On 4/1/2018 at 11:06 AM, The 7th Beatles said:

94c3ddfa75b2ac0fb54c2add48125446.jpg

This meme perfectly describes the relationship between Gausman and I over the last year or two. It's like owning Amari Cooper in football. You go in with high expectations, then once the season starts you say, "Why did I draft him?" Then you proceed to draft him again the next year. This year I'm glad I passed.

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10 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

I was...but no longer as now he's only getting 1 start @ DET. 


Good luck to the brave.

Oh yeah, I just saw that this morning. Go figure. 

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6 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

This meme perfectly describes the relationship between Gausman and I over the last year or two. It's like owning Amari Cooper in football. You go in with high expectations, then once the season starts you say, "Why did I draft him?" Then you proceed to draft him again the next year. This year I'm glad I passed.

As a Raider fan, I feel the same way. But the difference is, Amari was a 2-3rd round pick in fantasy last year, whereas Gausman's ADP approached 200 this year. The risk is much less than Gausman, he was worth a dart throw, until the game today was postponed. Now, he only has 1 start this week. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Akecheta said:

As a Raider fan, I feel the same way. But the difference is, Amari was a 2-3rd round pick in fantasy last year, whereas Gausman's ADP approached 200 this year. The risk is much less than Gausman, he was worth a dart throw, until the game today was postponed. Now, he only has 1 start this week. 

Yeah, you're right about the difference in ADP. I just meant Gausman is one of those guys who gets hyped up every year and you believe in, then things go south quickly and you regret drafting him. At least with Gausman he was pretty much free.

Edited by RedRaider27
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1 minute ago, RedRaider27 said:

Yeah, you're right about the difference in ADP. I just meant Gausman is one of those guys who gets hyped up every year and you believe in, then things go south quickly and you regret drafting him. At least with Gausman he was pretty much free.

 

He's basically old school Lucas Giolito.

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1 minute ago, RedRaider27 said:

Yeah, you're right about the difference in ADP. I just meant Gausman is one of those guys who gets hyped up every year and you believe in, then things go south quickly and you regret drafting him. At least with Gausman he was pretty much free.

True. But Gausman did heat up in the 2nd half (7 wins, 3.49 ERA), whereas Coop only had 1 big game, but never really got it going. I'm banking on the 2nd half Gausman, and if not, I can just drop him without a 2nd thought. 

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Posted (edited)

So 3 good starts (aka not blowups) for the Gausman in a row now. 

 

Can anyone who saw him vs. Detroit today fill me in? Didn’t catch the game, box score looks like a lot of hits (9 in 6ip) but no walks, 4 K’s meh but only 2 er and a QS overall. 

 

How did he look? I just traded Gioloto for him last week 

Edited by loro1991

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Posted (edited)

I don't own Gausman, haven't watched his starts, etc. but I was looking to trade for him and I would be interested in somebody who follows him more to weigh in on some of his struggles. The first thing I notice is that his fastball velocity is down by 3 mph from 2017 and from previous seasons. Most seasons he has hit ~95, but so far he's sitting at about 92.Yes, I realize that most pitchers start out with low velocity, but 3 mph off his fastball for a guy that usually hits 95-96 seems like a lot, no? This might also explain why batters are pulling the ball more on him, since they are able to catch up to his fastball more easily. Batters pulled the ball 33% of the time on him in 2017, but they are pulling the ball 48% of the time so far in 2018. His hard contact is up from 32% to 35%. His fastball usage is down from 65% in 2017 to 60% in 2018. 

 

You can see in the graph of his fastball velocity below, that most of the MLB pitchers are down a couple ticks, but he looks significantly down so far.

 

image.png.d0dbffcd5144cc7809ce05ef71e0f491.png

 

 

Edited by ktierne3
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Who knows - no injury has been noticed or mentioned. 

 

Maybe he's going for more of a controlled approach. If he incorporates a bit more control rather than sheer speed he will be better for it. 

 

I expected a QS today @DET and got it so I'm pretty satisfied so far. I'll be more worried about velo stats once games are consistently played over 40 degrees. 

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34 minutes ago, ktierne3 said:

I don't own Gausman, haven't watched his starts, etc. but I was looking to trade for him and I would be interested in somebody who follows him more to weigh in on some of his struggles. The first thing I notice is that his fastball velocity is down by 3 mph from 2017 and from previous seasons. Most seasons he has hit ~95, but so far he's sitting at about 92.Yes, I realize that most pitchers start out with low velocity, but 3 mph off his fastball for a guy that usually hits 95-96 seems like a lot, no? This might also explain why batters are pulling the ball more on him, since they are able to catch up to his fastball more easily. Batters pulled the ball 33% of the time on him in 2017, but they are pulling the ball 48% of the time so far in 2018. His hard contact is up from 32% to 35%. His fastball usage is down from 65% in 2017 to 60% in 2018. 

 

You can see in the graph of his fastball velocity below, that most of the MLB pitchers are down a couple ticks, but he looks significantly down so far.

 

image.png.d0dbffcd5144cc7809ce05ef71e0f491.png

 

 

I watched his start today on mlb gamcast and he was sitting 91-92 early, and then as he got into 6-7 it jumped all over.  To John Hicks in 6th he blew him away with a 96 MPH fzsfball.  But batter before he was 91.  Then against Jacoby Jones in 7th he threw 94-96 and then to next batter (Iglesias) who was his last he threw 89.  His velocity variation is wild.  I don’t know if mlb.com isn’t tracing a 2 seam/cutter or what, but I’ll have to actually tune into a start to watch him.

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I didn't see the game, but based on what I saw on Twitter, Orioles fans were saying he had a quality start, but the offense didn't support him at all. To me, I feel like you could do worse for a back end starter. He pitched nearly 186 innings last year, good for 24th in the league, and 179 K's, good for 25th in the league. I'm not saying he's a top 25 pitcher based on those stats, but it shows that he's reliable, and in a day and age where pitchers are pitching less innings, I'll gladly take 180+ innings from a pitcher whose worth is only a late round pick, or a waiver wire pick up. I hope I don't regret writing this post, but that's how I feel about him right now. 

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1 hour ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Lined up for a two start week pending no schedule changes (again). 

 

Yep both home dates with CLE and then DET again.

 

No reason at this point not to roll him out for both imo.

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3 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

 

Yep both home dates with CLE and then DET again.

 

No reason at this point not to roll him out for both imo.

Agreed

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22 minutes ago, Mickey Donovan said:

Throwing 95-96 tonight. Great sign

I tuned in to watch the game. He looks fine. I'm buying. 

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24 minutes ago, Mickey Donovan said:

Throwing 95-96 tonight. Great sign

He started out first few innings 90-92, then has dialed it up.  I think he could hit 96+ with regularity but it burns him out so he slowly builds up through each outing.  I’m still optimistic he can be a solid 3 starter in baseball, but I’m kind of intrigued in what he could do as a closer in short stints.  

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This start is why I can’t let this guy sit on my wire. Got stronger as the night went on. Top of the rotation stuff tonight.

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Studly outing for Gausman. The alleged velo issues magically disappeared once he got to pitch in a game above 40 degrees.

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