Sign in to follow this  
The Big Bat Theory

Boston Red Sox 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2018-11-05. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

Message added by tonycpsu

tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

Message added by tonycpsu

Recommended Posts

I was coming here to post something similar and saw your post. They are so fun to watch and really are such a complete team. 

 

Offensively I don't think there is a team that brings to the table what they do on a nightly basis. They have power from both sides of the plate and they have speed throughout the lineup from top to bottom. They're aggressive both at the plate and on the basepaths. All around a nightmare for pitchers. 

 

On the defensive side they have one of, if not, the best outfields in the game. The infield defense has been pretty good of late as well and the addition of Kinsler, though he's injured now, is going to be a big boost for them in the post season. 

 

The starting rotation is one of the better ones in the AL of the contenders and the addition of Eovaldi has proven to be huge so far. I don't think he'll continue to be this dominant the rest of the season but he's proven he can give them some good innings and miss bats. Also, last night was a huge step for Price after his last two outings against the Yanks were disastrous. Now they just need Sale to be healthy, which though he's not coming back when scheduled to, it sounds like they're just being extra cautious with him especially with the lead they have right now.

 

Then there's the bullpen, which is really the only weak area of the team but when you dig a little deeper it's really not as bad as many people think when just looking at the surface. You cannot just look at the entire season's body of work and say they're bad. Like @Red Sox Nation just pointed out of late both Hembree and Barnes have been very good. They also just got Thornburg back recently and though he hasn't been that good in his limited innings (SSS) he has great career numbers so the potential is there. I still do believe they need to add another arm before the waiver deadline to really put the finishing touches on this team. 

 

Now, that being said, I have witnessed some very large leads get blown late in the season so it ain't over til the fat lady sings. Just as an exercise I decided to break down the remaining schedules for both ball clubs. Here's what they're up against. 

 

The Sox still play 49 games and the Yankees 52. Here are the Sox 49 remaining games (24 at home). I have highlighted their playoff caliber opponents in BOLD. They have 21 remaining games against playoff caliber teams and 10 of them will be played in Boston, which is good because they hold the leagues best home winning percentage. 

 

3 at TOR / 4 at BAL / 2 at PHI / 3 vs TB / 4 vs CLE / 3 at TB / 2 vs MIA / 4 at CWS / 3 at ATL3 vs HOU / 3 vs TOR / 3 vs NYM / 3 at NYY3 at CLE / 3 vs BAL / 3 vs NYY.

 

The Sox have a record of 13-9 against the playoff teams they have to face the rest of the way while they hold a record of 32-11 against the non-playoff teams they face the rest of the way. They do face playoff teams more than the Yanks before the playoffs but if they can keep bullying the lesser teams like they have they should be able to hold this lead. 

10-3 vs TOR, 10-2 vs BAL, 1-1 vs PHI, 9-4 vs TB, N/A vs CLE, 2-0 vs MIA, 1-2 vs CWS, 2-1 vs ATL, 2-2 vs HOU, N/A vs NYM, 8-5 vs NYY.

 

Now here's a look at the same information but for the Yankees. They have 52 games left (25 at home). I have highlighted their playoff caliber opponents in BOLD. The Yankees only have 12 remaining games against playoff caliber teams and of those only 3 will be played at home where they too hold one of the best home records in the game.

 

3 at CWS / 4 vs TEX / 1 vs NYM / 3 vs TB / 3 vs TOR / 2 at MIA / 4 at BAL / 3 vs CWS / 2 vs DET / 3 at OAK / 3 at SEA / 3 at MIN / 3 vs TOR / 3 vs BOS / 3 vs BAL / 4 at TB / 3 at BOS

 

Here are New York's records vs these teams so far this season. The Yanks have a record of 10-9 against playoff caliber teams they have to face the rest of the way and a record of 32-22 against the non-playoff caliber teams they face the rest of the way. They have plenty of opportunity to beat up on the lesser teams the rest of the season but so far they have performed poorly at times against those same teams. To have a .500 record against both BAL and TB is surprising. The good thing for them is they have to face far fewer playoff caliber teams than the Sox do before the playoffs. 

N/A vs CWS, 1-2 vs TEX, 3-2 vs NYM, 6-6 vs TB, 9-4 vs TOR, 1-1 vs MIA, 6-6 vs BAL, 2-1 vs DET, 2-1 vs OAK, 3-0 vs SEA, 4-0 vs MIN, 5-8 vs BOS. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^  Liked your post but yeah I still think they need a left-hander in the bullpen for sure.  Maybe another arm as well.  I don't trust Barnes or Hembree.  They are yo-yos.  Up for a period then stink for a period.  Not consistent enough.

 

Nor do I trust anyone else there.  Even Kimbrel managed a bad inning this series though he is certainly the best guy by far in the pen and still an elite closer and usually money in the bank.  They absolutely need to upgrade the pen.

 

And the only reason Price came back out in the 7th vs the Yankees was because Cora can't trust his pen.  It would have been far better for Price's fragile ego if Cora could have trusted the pen and let Price exit with 6 innings of shut-out ball against his kryptonite team.

 

I know Dombrowski was kicking lefty arm reliever tires a lot pre trade deadline but he couldn't pull off a deal but hopefully he will via waivers.  His other three trades have been really good ones -- Pearce, Kinsler and Eovaldi. 

 

Kinsler could be huge down the stretch.  Just look what bad fielding did to the Yankees this series.  You need good defense up the middle.  And it frees up Nunez to come in as a late innings defensive replacement for Devers at 3B when the Red Sox are leading.

 

I hope they keep Eovaldi in the rotation and move Pom to the pen when Eddie comes back.  Eovaldi is the better starter right now and a needed righty in the rotation and Pomeranz adds a lefty to the pen too.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd love to see Liriano in the Sox pen. Gotta think he could be had in a waiver deal. 

 

Last I heard Lefties were hitting .113 against him this season. 

Edited by mjb03003
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great, great post @BostonCajun. Regarding Sale, heck I'd give him at least another week. Let that guy risk. He's flamed out the past few years, especially last year. No need to rush him for a start against the Orioles or Blue Jays. 

 

And @The Big Bat Theory they'll have a lefty come October, likely Rodriguez. All though I wish it was Price. He was a monster in that role last year. Sale Porcello locked into rotation spots. If Eovaldi keeps pitching well, he deserves a spot. With the way Price is pitching, they won't send him to the pen like I want. So, it'll be Eddie as the odd man out. Question is, can he relieve? As @mjb03003 mentioned Liriano has smothered lefties. That's the low-key type of move that could really tie this pen together. Even though the big boppers on the Astros/Yanks/Indians are righty, it's nice to have that lefty. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I'd rather be in the Wild Card game than on cruise control / coasting along for 1.5 months.

 

Boston's going to draw in a five-game series a confident, quality opponent fresh off dispatching another quality opponent in a pressure packed one game playoff.

 

Yea it's counterintuitive but the whole baseball playoff system is counterintuitive.

Edited by My Dinner With Andre
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

I think I'd rather be in the Wild Card game than on cruise control / coasting along for 1.5 months.

 

Boston's to draw in a five-game series a confident, quality opponent fresh off dispatching another quality opponent in a pressure packed one game playoff.

 

Yea it's counterintuitive but the whole baseball playoff system is counterintuitive.

 

Image result for grimace gif

  • Haha 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

I think I'd rather be in the Wild Card game than on cruise control / coasting along for 1.5 months.

 

Boston's going to draw in a five-game series a confident, quality opponent fresh off dispatching another quality opponent in a pressure packed one game playoff.

 

Yea it's counterintuitive but the whole baseball playoff system is counterintuitive.

???

I got no skin in this game. But you’re a Yankees fan, aren’t you?

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

???

I got no skin in this game. But you’re a Yankees fan, aren’t you?

 

No. I just think the Wild Card teams typically enter the Division Series with a lot of confidence coming off the WC game win.

 

Indeed. In its history, teams that have won the WC game have a winning record against division winners in the Divisional round: 26 wins, 24 losses.


Couple that with the fact that the Red Sox are going to be playing very low leverage baseball over the next month and a half, idk, it makes for risky combination if you ask me.

Edited by My Dinner With Andre

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

No. I just think the Wild Card teams typically enter the Division Series with a lot of confidence coming off the WC game win.

 

Indeed. In its history, teams that have won the WC game have a winning record against division winners in the Divisional round: 26 wins, 24 losses.


Couple that with the fact that the Red Sox are going to be playing very low leverage baseball over the next month and a half, idk, it makes for risky combination if you ask me.

Fair enough. I just think almost no one would agree that they’d rather take their chances in a one-game playoff and, even if they win, use up their ace and then start a series against a division winner without your ace until ~ game 3.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Fair enough. I just think almost no one would agree that they’d rather take their chances in a one-game playoff and, even if they win, use up their ace and then start a series against a division winner without your ace until ~ game 3.

 

Let me phrase it in a way that's less controversial: Would I trade the division for the Wild Card game? Of course not. But, if you could guarantee me a Wild Card win, and the momentum that comes from it, I would probably take that over home field advantage and whatever other intangible boost you get from winning your division.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

 

Kinsler could be huge down the stretch.  Just look what bad fielding did to the Yankees this series.  You need good defense up the middle.  And it frees up Nunez to come in as a late innings defensive replacement for Devers at 3B when the Red Sox are leading.

 

Hands of stone Eduardo Nunez is a defensive replacement ? Yikes 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Hands of stone Eduardo Nunez is a defensive replacement ? Yikes 

 

Please read my post before you try to tell me I said the opposite of what I said.  Thank you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Please read my post before you try to tell me I said the opposite of what I said.  Thank you.

What? When I read this—- And it frees up Nunez to come in as a late inning defensive replacement for Devers at 3B when the Sox are ahead. 

 

 To me that means Nunez is your defensive wizard .. 

 

I wonder how others diagnosis what you wrote 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

What? When I read this—- And it frees up Nunez to come in as a late inning defensive replacement for Devers at 3B when the Sox are ahead. 

 

 To me that means Nunez is your defensive wizard .. 

 

I wonder how others diagnosis what you wrote 

 

He is a defensive replacement.  Devers is the one still struggling with his fielding.  Or would you rather suggest the Sox trade for hands of hard diamonds Andujar instead?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Great, great post @BostonCajun. Regarding Sale, heck I'd give him at least another week. Let that guy risk. He's flamed out the past few years, especially last year. No need to rush him for a start against the Orioles or Blue Jays. 

 

And @The Big Bat Theory they'll have a lefty come October, likely Rodriguez. All though I wish it was Price. He was a monster in that role last year. Sale Porcello locked into rotation spots. If Eovaldi keeps pitching well, he deserves a spot. With the way Price is pitching, they won't send him to the pen like I want. So, it'll be Eddie as the odd man out. Question is, can he relieve? As @mjb03003 mentioned Liriano has smothered lefties. That's the low-key type of move that could really tie this pen together. Even though the big boppers on the Astros/Yanks/Indians are righty, it's nice to have that lefty. 

 

Liriano could be a sneaky good acquisition but he'd have to be a loogy.

 

I've watched a lot of eovaldi this season and his ball is moving all over the place.   Which is crazy since before it was straight as an arrow.

 

I can't see anyway barring injury that Sale, Porcello, and Price aren't 1 to 3 in the playoffs.

 

Pomeranz definitely should be bullpen bound.

 

Toss up between Eovaldi and Erod for the 4th guy.   You could make it opponent driven.   Houston/Oakland/Seattle=Eovaldi.  Cleveland Erod.  Yankees dunno.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Toss up between Eovaldi and Erod for the 4th guy.   You could make it opponent driven.   Houston/Oakland/Seattle=Eovaldi.  Cleveland Erod.  Yankees dunno.

 

This was sort of my thought when they acquired Eovaldi. The Astros, Yankees and Mariners are so right hand heavy a guy like Eovaldi made sense.  Even if he reverts to past form he has always been pretty tough against righties. It's traditionally been lefties that have been his achilles ( sans this year ). There's not a lot of scary lefties on those three teams.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Should be a pretty good world series. I am rooting for the Brewers but I think the Dodgers would probably be the tougher opponents. Hard to envision those MIL SPs surviving that BOS lineup. Hader can't pitch every inning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, papasmurf said:

Should be a pretty good world series. I am rooting for the Brewers but I think the Dodgers would probably be the tougher opponents. Hard to envision those MIL SPs surviving that BOS lineup. Hader can't pitch every inning.

 

agree the brewers wont be able to pitch to boston

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's Dodgers v Red Sox.  The best teams after the crazy stuff that happened in the LCS.  I think the Red Sox are favored because of pitching and home field advantage.  That said, I only got two games right in all of the LCS games played.  Before that, I had predicted all of the wild card and playoff games right.  My projections have the Red Sox to win it all, so I'm going the opposite and pick the Dodgers. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Steve Pierce trade looks good.  Betts  demolished LHP but h'es the only guy who hit better against LHP. Benny Can't hit them all neither can JBJ or Devers.

 

Dodgers will probably use Kershaw, Ryu and Hill at some point as starters.  Very LHP heavy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

The Steve Pierce trade looks good.  Betts  demolished LHP but h'es the only guy who hit better against LHP. Benny Can't hit them all neither can JBJ or Devers.

 

Dodgers will probably use Kershaw, Ryu and Hill at some point as starters.  Very LHP heavy.

 

JD crushes lefties and hit .336 vs. this year and .376 last season against them. 

 

He also has the advantage of playing them last year in the division, so he has a track record against a lot of the Dodgers pitching that nobody else on Boston will have.  Dodgers will be very careful with him all series and I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get a ton to hit, even at the expense of getting walked quite a bit.

 

Oddly enough, Ian Kinsler can't hit lefties at all.  .191 on the season with zero power.  They may be better off playing Holt over him, who has reverse splits and hit .292 against lefties this year.  They lose a little bit with the glove though, so Kinsler will probably get the nod for that reason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, The Czar said:

 

JD crushes lefties and hit .336 vs. this year and .376 last season against them. 

 

He also has the advantage of playing them last year in the division, so he has a track record against a lot of the Dodgers pitching that nobody else on Boston will have.  Dodgers will be very careful with him all series and I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get a ton to hit, even at the expense of getting walked quite a bit.

 

Oddly enough, Ian Kinsler can't hit lefties at all.  .191 on the season with zero power.  They may be better off playing Holt over him, who has reverse splits and hit .292 against lefties this year.  They lose a little bit with the glove though, so Kinsler will probably get the nod for that reason.

 

he did.  but he hit about 90 points better in OPS against RHP, albeit small sample.

 

Kinsler kind of sucks I'd rather take a chance with Brock Holt too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

he did.  but he hit about 90 points better in OPS against RHP, albeit small sample.

 

Kinsler kind of sucks I'd rather take a chance with Brock Holt too.

 

I had no idea they were talking about moving Betts there when I suggested Holt.  What a crazy time to make that switch, but Betts is an elite athlete.  As a Betts owner in a dynasty, I'd love to see him get second base back.

 

Dodgers hit a ton of flyballs, so I'm not sure it makes sense to weaken that outfield defense to get the extra bat in there.  Is this only for the NL games maybe?  So they can get JD in the OF and still have all their key bats?  Of will this be all series because Kinsler can't hit lefties?  Either way, interesting development.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, The Czar said:

 

I had no idea they were talking about moving Betts there when I suggested Holt.  What a crazy time to make that switch, but Betts is an elite athlete.  As a Betts owner in a dynasty, I'd love to see him get second base back.

 

Dodgers hit a ton of flyballs, so I'm not sure it makes sense to weaken that outfield defense to get the extra bat in there.  Is this only for the NL games maybe?  So they can get JD in the OF and still have all their key bats?  Of will this be all series because Kinsler can't hit lefties?  Either way, interesting development.

 

It is just for LA where they have to play with old fashion rules from the 1800's so have to find a way to get JD's bat into the line-up different than the norm.  (NL, grow up and join the 21st century).    And I imagine it will have a lot to do with how the two games in Boston go.  They could well stick with Kinsler for D or go with Holt who is a decent 2B.  Maybe wait and make moves in mid-game.  But Mookie has been taking a lot of infield reps at 2B the last few days with Pedroia out there working with him. And he played 2B a few innings this season.  So if it makes sense to Cora he will play Mookie at 2B.

 

Of course this is just for the Series.  No intention of moving him to 2B going forward has ever remotely been mentioned or even speculated about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.