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jfazz23

Greg Bird 2018 Outlook

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His Hype train was huge(yuge) going into 2017.  Had a crazy spring and a terrible start to the season and eventually needed ankle surgery for a fracture.

 

He looked very good the last few weeks of the season and his Homer off of Andrew Miller in a 0-0 game in the post season is no joke.

 

I firmly believe this guy hits 40 homers if he plays 140+ games next year.  Health is obviously the factor.  I will be targeting him at (hopefully) a discount in all leagues, even with 1b being deep.

 

Let's Discuss

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Will draft him everywhere. Just like this year. Can't be any worse!

Edited by MugsyBogues

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5 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

His Hype train was huge(yuge) going into 2017.  Had a crazy spring and a terrible start to the season and eventually needed ankle surgery for a fracture.

 

He looked very good the last few weeks of the season and his Homer off of Andrew Miller in a 0-0 game in the post season is no joke.

 

I firmly believe this guy hits 40 homers if he plays 140+ games next year.  Health is obviously the factor.  I will be targeting him at (hopefully) a discount in all leagues, even with 1b being deep.

 

Let's Discuss

 

I think 40 is too high, but I do respect the bold prediction.  I can't see myself reaching for him because of how deep the position is, but I do think he will come at a discount and not needed to be reached on.... unless you have a lot of Yankees fans in your league.

 

 

40 is just a lot to ask from someone. Only 5 guys hit 40 HRs this year despite HR being at an all time high.

 

The only people I would project for 4 next year are Judge, Stanton and maybe JD depending on his park.  I think Cruz, Arenado Khris, Edwin, or Bellinger could get there (others too), but projecting them for that is tough for me.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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I fear the hype will bump him higher than he should go. First base is deep next season and I don't mind taking him with one of my last picks but I'm not seeing how you're getting any realistic value taking him higher than that. 

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13 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I think 40 is too high, but I do respect the bold prediction.  I can't see myself reaching for him because of how deep the position is, but I do think he will come at a discount and not needed to be reached on.... unless you have a lot of Yankees fans in your league.

 

 

40 is just a lot to ask from someone. Only 5 guys hit 40 HRs this year despite HR being at an all time high.

 

The only people I would project for 4 next year are Judge, Stanton and maybe JD depending on his park.  I think Cruz, Arenado Khris, Edwin, or Bellinger could get there (others too), but projecting them for that is tough for me.

I think Donaldson will be around 40 as well missed a big chunk of time still hit 33

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7 hours ago, azeri98 said:

I think Donaldson will be around 40 as well missed a big chunk of time still hit 33

KB also being a candidate

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There are no shortage of candidates, the difference is actually projecting someone for 40. Josh Donaldson has done it one time, sure he could do it again, but I would not project it with his recent injuries and age. 

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I agree with you on your post above RE: the three players who I would project around 40.  I see Bird as more of a 28-35 HR possibility for 2018

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2 hours ago, STLSU said:

I agree with you on your post above RE: the three players who I would project around 40.  I see Bird as more of a 28-35 HR possibility for 2018

nothing hes done when health suggests this

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Our boy just took 100 miles Giles way deep, and has 2 of the Yanks' 5 hits on the night.  Certainly pumping his stock up with his postseason play.  Loving it as a dynasty owner, hating it as a guy who was hoping to get him late in redrafts.

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7 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Our boy just took 100 miles Giles way deep, and has 2 of the Yanks' 5 hits on the night.  Certainly pumping his stock up with his postseason play.  Loving it as a dynasty owner, hating it as a guy who was hoping to get him late in redrafts.

It's like he's cursing me with every swing, I was way early on him this year. My Tribe was supposed to win and keep Greg a sleeper

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On 10/12/2017 at 11:35 PM, jfazz23 said:

nothing hes done when health suggests this

 

But his park and swing suggests it, if Bird reaches his reasonable 2018 potential 

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On 10/12/2017 at 10:35 PM, jfazz23 said:

nothing hes done when health suggests this

I was arguing against 40 HR next year.  However 28ish seems reasonable given a full season of AB's which he has not enjoyed in the bigs.  He's a pull hitter perfect for that park.  The top players in MLB with HR rates near 9-10 HR per 100 AB or so and those are the 40ish HR guys.  Generally those guys are hitting the ball to all fields nowadays although IMO he has a decent shot in 2-3 years at 40 even with his current swing.  I'd say he's not going to be in that JD/Bellringer/Judge on a consistent basis until he makes some plate and swing adjustments.  

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im saying when healthy, nothing suggests he stalls at 28 in a year where didi gregorious his 26 without playing in april, and a guy like lindor hit 33

 

bird has effortless power compared to those guys and is left handed in yankee stadium.

 

40 is the new 30 IMO....and i think bird gets there or very close of he plays in 145+ games

 

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

im saying when healthy, nothing suggests he stalls at 28 in a year where didi gregorious his 26 without playing in april, and a guy like lindor hit 33

 

bird has effortless power compared to those guys and is left handed in yankee stadium.

 

40 is the new 30 IMO....and i think bird gets there or very close of he plays in 145+ games

 

Assuming the HR trend continues into next year, I agree with this. 

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18 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

Assuming the HR trend continues into next year, I agree with this. 

ya this is what i mean, assuming they dont toy with the baseball again...greg bird is substantially more of a HR hitter than Lindor, who just hit 33

 

remember, bird was on pace for like 44 in 2015 when he replaced Tex at 1b, and had a huge spring in 2017....

this september (and playoffs) he has looked very good too.  he really hasnt ever looked bad when healthy...

 

for those projecting 28, nothing to me suggests he and DIDI are equal in the power department.  remember, if DIDI didnt mess his shoulder up in the WBC causing him to miss spring, he probably hits 30 this year. 

 

i dont even think 40 is all that bold tbh

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in January of this year I thought Bird would be a cheap source for 30HR and .340 OBP. I'll go with those numbers but he probably won't be as cheap. Proceed with caution. 

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It is going to be so hard to justify his draft position with the injury history.  

 

Are his past injuries chronic or things that heal completely?

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16 hours ago, jwblue said:

It is going to be so hard to justify his draft position with the injury history.  

 

Are his past injuries chronic or things that heal completely?

Mostly freakish. The back from before last year would concern me way more than the two foul balls he hit himself with

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Based on where I see him going in some expert mock drafts this offseason (not even top 200?!), Greg Bird is going to be an absolute steal in 2018 drafts.

 

His entire 2017 season was derailed by the injury, including when he played... until September of course, when he finally got back in a rhythm. He hit .260/.314/.623 in his last 25 regular season games and followed that up with a .250/.421/500 performance in 14 postseason. And lest we forget his .453/.556/1.098 line in 23 Spring Training games!

 

He's going to be in a stacked lineup and probably hitting alongside Judge and Stanton in some order. He might even be wedged between them to break up the righties.

 

If he can manage to play 150 games, I think something like .260, 30-40 HRs, 100 RBI, 100 R is super attainable.

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I'm a fan of Bird (which burned me last year). It will be interesting to see how the lineup is configured. He could be batting anywhere from 7th to 4th. His prowess is power but the most important attribute is that he won't kill you in average, if everything works out of course. Last year was a disaster, but even with that his career MLB numbers in 300 AB are 20 HR, 46 R, 59 RBI. I'm not too worried about the health, the foot was a freak injury and he came back from it and was a force in the playoffs. My biggest concern right now is ABs. This lineup has so many guys to feed ABs to. Tyler Austin could steal plenty of ABs against lefties. The DH spot will likely be used every night by one of the OFs. Also wouldn't be shocked if someone like Clint Frazier or Miguel Andujar got some time at 1B if they get hot. Each of these are a long shot but its possible some comes to fruition.

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31 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

Based on where I see him going in some expert mock drafts this offseason (not even top 200?!), Greg Bird is going to be an absolute steal in 2018 drafts.

 

His entire 2017 season was derailed by the injury, including when he played... until September of course, when he finally got back in a rhythm. He hit .260/.314/.623 in his last 25 regular season games and followed that up with a .250/.421/500 performance in 14 postseason. And lest we forget his .453/.556/1.098 line in 23 Spring Training games!

 

He's going to be in a stacked lineup and probably hitting alongside Judge and Stanton in some order. He might even be wedged between them to break up the righties.

 

If he can manage to play 150 games, I think something like .260, 30-40 HRs, 100 RBI, 100 R is super attainable.

hes not going to go in 200+ in real drafts fyi...hell be around 100-120

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Yeah, those expert drafts were in the BG (Before Giancarlo) era.  Throw those out the window.  He went at 133 in our forums mock #2, and assuming he's healthy and not looking awful in the Spring, 100-120 isn't out of the question.  I wouldn't go that high, but many will.

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