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jfazz23

Greg Bird 2018 Outlook

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6 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

they wouldnt hit the lefties back to back.

 

im thinking 3rd or 5th.

Gardner,judge,bird,stanton, sanchez, didi

or

gardner, judge, stanton, bird, sanchez, didi

I’m no Yanks fan but hitting Sanchez 5th seems downright criminal. He should be in the top 3, 4 at worst. 

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6 minutes ago, MugsyBogues said:

I’m no Yanks fan but hitting Sanchez 5th seems downright criminal. He should be in the top 3, 4 at worst. 

so who you bumping down? hitting didi and bird back to back is just silly when u have several right handed power bats to break them up

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No way can I throw Bird in there at this point in the premier #3 hole.  He's not a complete enough hitter at this point and while his wOBA is good, his average still is a risk to be at .255-.260 which is kinda low for that spot.  

 

I expect Gardy to continue his slow decline.  Eventually Frazier will push his way into the OF rotation.  Ellsbury just needs to sit down.  I think Hicks should be the leadoff hitter IMO and CF.  

 

I think this will get sorted out by mid May.  I took a deep dive into Sanchez last 2 years.  His K rate is a manageable 22-23%.  He actually hit righties at .282 and has hit them better in 2016 than lefties as well.  Given that he can produce double digit BB%s I would give him a shot in the 2 hole.

 

So eventually I see it like Hicks/Sanchez/Stanton/Judge/Didi/Bird and possibly Bird moving up if he can hit for a good average with good splits.  For now I'm guessing Gardner will lead off though.

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42 minutes ago, STLSU said:

No way can I throw Bird in there at this point in the premier #3 hole.  He's not a complete enough hitter at this point and while his wOBA is good, his average still is a risk to be at .255-.260 which is kinda low for that spot.  

 

I expect Gardy to continue his slow decline.  Eventually Frazier will push his way into the OF rotation.  Ellsbury just needs to sit down.  I think Hicks should be the leadoff hitter IMO and CF.  

 

I think this will get sorted out by mid May.  I took a deep dive into Sanchez last 2 years.  His K rate is a manageable 22-23%.  He actually hit righties at .282 and has hit them better in 2016 than lefties as well.  Given that he can produce double digit BB%s I would give him a shot in the 2 hole.

 

So eventually I see it like Hicks/Sanchez/Stanton/Judge/Didi/Bird and possibly Bird moving up if he can hit for a good average with good splits.  For now I'm guessing Gardner will lead off though.

Ellsbury is totally out of the equation he'll be sitting on the bench telling jokes to the water cooler. I'm not a huge believer on Hicks- at least not yet he doesn't seem like an leadoff guy to me right now though. I'm with you on Gardy hitting leadoff - whether he falls off a cliff as the year goes on we'll see- def possible. But I suspect he's the leadoff guy to start. As far as the rest goes the only thing I really think is a must is Judge 2nd - love his obp so that is the ideal spot for him. Everything else is less set. I agree that 3 RHB stack isn't really a big deal the L/R/L/R compulsion was more of a Girardism so maybe that falls by the wayside. On 2nd thought if I had to guess again Judge-Stanton-Gary is probably the most likely outcome. Anyhow I think its very unlikely we see Bird 3rd (hey that rhymes) at least to start but maybe eventually. 

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38 minutes ago, DidiFan said:

Ellsbury is totally out of the equation he'll be sitting on the bench telling jokes to the water cooler. I'm not a huge believer on Hicks- at least not yet he doesn't seem like an leadoff guy to me right now though. I'm with you on Gardy hitting leadoff - whether he falls off a cliff as the year goes on we'll see- def possible. But I suspect he's the leadoff guy to start. As far as the rest goes the only thing I really think is a must is Judge 2nd - love his obp so that is the ideal spot for him. Everything else is less set. I agree that 3 RHB stack isn't really a big deal the L/R/L/R compulsion was more of a Girardism so maybe that falls by the wayside. On 2nd thought if I had to guess again Judge-Stanton-Gary is probably the most likely outcome. Anyhow I think its very unlikely we see Bird 3rd (hey that rhymes) at least to start but maybe eventually. 

Didi could also work as a 2 hitter die to his contact skills and low K%.  Even with low walks he fits the old school #2 prototype hitter.

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As a Red Sox fan I hate the thought of having to face this lineup so often.. 

 

Seriously though, the Yankees should lead the league in HR this year with Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez. I too feel like the best lineup for them would be Gardner, Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, Bird, Didi, Hicks, Torreyes, and Torres. If Bird doesn't hit well bump him down for either Didi or Hicks. You can't really go wrong either way with this lineup. They have a ton of flexibility if needed.

Edited by BostonCajun

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5 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

As a Red Sox fan I hate the thought of having to face this lineup so often.. 

 

Seriously though, the Yankees should lead the league in HR this year with Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez. I too feel like the best lineup for them would be Gardner, Judge, Stanton, Sanchez, Bird, Didi, Hicks, Torreyes, and Torres. If Bird doesn't hit well bump him down for either Didi or Hicks. You can't really go wrong either way with this lineup. They have a ton of flexibility if needed.

u arent hitting lefties back to back. 

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Has anyone seen or is willing to put up projected 2018 stats for him?

 

I apologize if I missed it previously stated. I tried looking back and didn't see anything.

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16 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

If I had to bet he's batting 6th but could change. Three righties isn't as big as a deal as lefties.

again i think its more of not wanting to hit bird and didi, both lefties,back to back.  if bird has a good spring im betting he hits 3rd

Edited by jfazz23
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2 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

again i think its more of not wanting to hit bird and didi, both lefties,back to back.  if bird has a good spring im betting he hits 3rd

Bird had a fantastic spring last year and just everything went wrong basically- to be fair I think it was mostly a product of him being dinged up and eventually he missed time because of it. I love Bird but if I'm being honest I don't even think he's their 4th best hitter (right now at least) so it just doesn't make a ton of sense to me for him to start hitting 3rd. I get it the upside is big time for sure but to start off the season hitting 3rd its possible but seems very ambitious

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I'm just not seeing him hitting 3rd anytime soon at all.  He would have to literally go gangbusters with like 10 HR in April with a minimum .275 avg.  He is a career .227 hitter in the minors/majors and had a 36% hard contact rate.  That's above average but it's not better than what Judge/Stanton/Sanchez would do.  Near 50% pull hitters have a hard time putting up something like a .275 average.  I'm in the Ripley's/Missouri camp here and therefore will have to show me more than just ST stats against pitchers testing out their breaking ball repertoire.  

Edited by STLSU
minors/majors

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9 minutes ago, STLSU said:

I'm just not seeing him hitting 3rd anytime soon at all.  He would have to literally go gangbusters with like 10 HR in April with a minimum .275 avg.  He is a career .227 hitter in the minors/majors and had a 36% hard contact rate.  That's above average but it's not better than what Judge/Stanton/Sanchez would do.  Near 50% pull hitters have a hard time putting up something like a .275 average.  I'm in the Ripley's/Missouri camp here and therefore will have to show me more than just ST stats against pitchers testing out their breaking ball repertoire.  

????  He is a career .283 hitter in the minor leagues.

 

He has 348 career MLB plate appearances with 20 home runs and 59 RBI's with a .227 career batting average.  However, he played hurt much of last season.  What if you gave him 500-550 MLB plate appearances over a full season?  Isn't it possible he would get 30 home runs and 90 rbi's?

 

After he came back from injury his totals in September/October and in the playoffs was the following:


26/110   .236 avg  9 HR and 22 RBI's


I don't think he will be a .240 hitter over the course of a full season.  Probably anywhere between .250 and .260

 

 

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Specifically his .227 AVG is dragged down by a .255 BABIP in a small sample.

 

Looking at 2017, if you use his 40.6% hard hit % and compare to others in that hard hit % range you'll see Domingo Santana with a .363 BABIP, Zimmerman .335, Abreu .330, Cruz .315

 

If you presume he can pull that BABIP up to standard levels around .320 based on his contact, his AVG should rise accordingly.  .260-.270 certain seems reasonable.

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49 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

Specifically his .227 AVG is dragged down by a .255 BABIP in a small sample.

 

Looking at 2017, if you use his 40.6% hard hit % and compare to others in that hard hit % range you'll see Domingo Santana with a .363 BABIP, Zimmerman .335, Abreu .330, Cruz .315

 

If you presume he can pull that BABIP up to standard levels around .320 based on his contact, his AVG should rise accordingly.  .260-.270 certain seems reasonable.

Based on what we saw in 2017 Bird is very much a high FB (51.9%) and high pull (48.6%) guy so I don't think we can necessarily bank on BABIP regression but I get what youre saying.  All told I'm agreeing with steamer and I think he's most likely somewhere around a .250 hitter or so. 

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2 hours ago, DidiFan said:

Bird had a fantastic spring last year and just everything went wrong basically- to be fair I think it was mostly a product of him being dinged up and eventually he missed time because of it. I love Bird but if I'm being honest I don't even think he's their 4th best hitter (right now at least) so it just doesn't make a ton of sense to me for him to start hitting 3rd. I get it the upside is big time for sure but to start off the season hitting 3rd its possible but seems very ambitious

bird broke his leg and was misdiagnosed last year, it wasnt him being "dinged up".  when bird has been healthy he has shown hes a 40 homerun guy. agree the avg might be 250 on the low side, with upside of 280

 

i can see bird being their 2nd or 3rd best hitter TBH and im not even considering stanton getting hurt.

 

i guess we will just have to wait and see. cheers

Edited by jfazz23
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3 hours ago, Short Porch said:

????  He is a career .283 hitter in the minor leagues.

 

He has 348 career MLB plate appearances with 20 home runs and 59 RBI's with a .227 career batting average.  However, he played hurt much of last season.  What if you gave him 500-550 MLB plate appearances over a full season?  Isn't it possible he would get 30 home runs and 90 rbi's?

 

After he came back from injury his totals in September/October and in the playoffs was the following:


26/110   .236 avg  9 HR and 22 RBI's


I don't think he will be a .240 hitter over the course of a full season.  Probably anywhere between .250 and .260

 

 

Postseason  |  Projections  |  Minor Leagues  |  Regular Season  |  Averages
Season Team BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO Spd BABIP UBR wGDP wSB wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
2011 Yankees (R) 7.7 % 30.8 % 0.25 .083 .154 .083 .237 .000 0.1 .125     0.0 0 -1.9 .130 -22
2012 Yankees (R) 17.7 % 21.0 % 0.85 .286 .419 .367 .787 .082 4.3 .378     0.0 10 3.0 .384 143
2012 Yankees (A-) 12.8 % 21.3 % 0.60 .400 .489 .650 1.139 .250 0.1 .500     -0.1 12 6.8 .518 229
2013 Yankees (A) 18.7 % 23.0 % 0.81 .288 .428 .511 .938 .223 3.1 .364     -0.9 113 46.5 .429 170
2014 Yankees (A+) 13.8 % 21.5 % 0.64 .277 .375 .442 .817 .164 2.8 .342     0.1 49 12.1 .373 133
2014 Yankees (AA) 15.5 % 23.3 % 0.67 .253 .379 .558 .937 .305 1.1 .274     0.0 21 7.8 .411 158
2015 Yankees (AA) 11.3 % 14.2 % 0.80 .258 .358 .445 .804 .187 2.6 .279     -0.2 31 7.8 .367 133
2015 Yankees (AAA) 7.3 % 18.0 % 0.41 .301 .353 .500 .853 .199 2.0 .333     -0.2 23 7.4 .387 146
2015 Yankees 10.7 % 29.8 % 0.36 .261 .343 .529 .871 .268 1.4 .319 -0.8 0.7 -0.1 28 8.4 .372 137
2017 Yankees (A+) 22.7 % 4.5 % 5.00 .353 .500 .471 .971 .118 0.7 .375     0.0 5 2.2 .454 193
2017 Yankees (AAA) 18.6 % 15.3 % 1.22 .298 .424 .574 .998 .277 2.1 .306     0.0 12 5.1 .434 177
2017 Yankees 11.2 % 24.7 % 0.45 .190 .288 .422 .710 .231 1.3 .194 -2.7 0.6 -0.1 18 -2.5 .303 86
2018 Depth Charts 11.2 % 22.1 % 0.51 .253 .342 .492 .834 .240 2.9 .277 -0.2   -0.5 88 16.1 .353 120
2018 Steamer 11.2 % 22.1 % 0.51 .253 .342 .492 .834 .240 2.9 .277 -0.2   -0.4 71 13.1 .353 120
2018 Fans (15) 11.9 % 23.8 % 0.50 .264 .358 .498 .855 .234 2.9 .304     -0.1 84 18.8 .362 126
Total - - - 10.9 % 27.3 % 0.40 .227 .316 .477 .793 .250 1.4 .255 -3.5 1.3 -0.2 47 5.9 .339 112

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14131&position=1B

 

I'd assumed this combined all levels.  But I looked on CBS and see what you are saying.  My bad.

Edited by STLSU

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"Greg Bird, New York Yankees

Top Three Same-Age Comps: Brandon Belt, Tommy Joseph, Justin Morneau

Shoulder surgery knocked out Greg Bird for all of 2016 and foot surgery sidelined him for much of last season, but he returned with authority in late August and quickly earned manager Joe Girardi‘s trust in the middle of the lineup. Girardi is gone now, but the Yankees remain committed to the 25-year-old at first base and PECOTA projects him to be one of the AL’s top sluggers in his first full season. Bird hit 20 homers in his first 94 games as a major leaguer after totaling 22 homers in 125 games between Double-A and Triple-A. PECOTA thinks 30 homers is well within reach, and Bird’s top seven same-age comps include Brandon Belt, Justin Morneau, Joey Votto, and Paul Goldschmidt."

 

From baseball prospectus (free article)

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On 2/11/2018 at 11:11 PM, DidiFan said:

Ellsbury is totally out of the equation he'll be sitting on the bench telling jokes to the water cooler. I'm not a huge believer on Hicks- at least not yet he doesn't seem like an leadoff guy to me right now though. I'm with you on Gardy hitting leadoff - whether he falls off a cliff as the year goes on we'll see- def possible. But I suspect he's the leadoff guy to start. As far as the rest goes the only thing I really think is a must is Judge 2nd - love his obp so that is the ideal spot for him. Everything else is less set. I agree that 3 RHB stack isn't really a big deal the L/R/L/R compulsion was more of a Girardism so maybe that falls by the wayside. On 2nd thought if I had to guess again Judge-Stanton-Gary is probably the most likely outcome. Anyhow I think its very unlikely we see Bird 3rd (hey that rhymes) at least to start but maybe eventually. 

I am hoping Jacoby finds the fountain of youth. Ellsbury hitting leadoff makes the team stronger. 

 

Go Yankees

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