Gryfter

Trea Turner 2018 Outlook

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I'd like one of the posters down on Turner to point to one peripheral that concerns them. I am seeing zero in the overall profile that is concerning. Hard hit% is up; swings at pitches out of the zone are down; contact is up; he's even 7 for 7 on stolen bases. I see zero to be concerned about unless you think there's a reason his BABIP has fallen off of a cliff.

Edited by Hanghow

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3 hours ago, ToO_BaD said:

 

I'm sorry, but I don't understand what you are trying to say in this post.  

I’m just trying to say that while his speed is elite, there are at least 4 other guys who’s speed is also elite. Gordon, Hamilton and DeShields. I was using DD as an example because he could be had so much later in drafts. Sure, he got hurt so he won’t steal as many as Trea this year but if Turner doesn’t hit at the top of the order I almost think Dee Gordon will have better numbers by the end of the season. The only difference is Trea might have let’s say 12 hrs to Dee’s 4. TT is not a first round pick. All I’m saying. 

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10 minutes ago, The Dude81 said:

I’m just trying to say that while his speed is elite, there are at least 4 other guys who’s speed is also elite. Gordon, Hamilton and DeShields. I was using DD as an example because he could be had so much later in drafts. Sure, he got hurt so he won’t steal as many as Trea this year but if Turner doesn’t hit at the top of the order I almost think Dee Gordon will have better numbers by the end of the season. The only difference is Trea might have let’s say 12 hrs to Dee’s 4. TT is not a first round pick. All I’m saying. 

 

Well if being had much later in the draft is your guide, then I would remove Gordon from your example because, while not as high as Turner, was not a late-round pick.  And if you're comparing the speed of DeShields to that of Turner:  I will compare their two most productive seasons.

 

DeShields:  2015 - 121 games, 492 PAs, 25 steals with 8 caught stealing; 2017 - 120 games, 440 PAs, 29 steals with 8 caught stealing

 

Turner:  2016 - 73 games, 324 PAs, 33 steals with 6 caught stealing; 2017 - 98 games, 447 PAs, 46 steals with 8 caught stealing.

 

So in 932 PAs, DeShields had 54 steals and 16 caught stealing.  So DeShields had a steal roughly every 17 PAs, and was caught stealing roughly 23% of the time.

 

In 771 PAs, Turner had 79 steals and 14 caught stealing.  So Turner had a steal roughly every 10 PAs, and was caught stealing roughly 15% of the time.

 

Yeah, if you are just looking at the surface of Turner's numbers to this point, his ROI is probably not there yet.  But if you look at deeper numbers as others have mentioned here, you would see that he is due for better numbers as the season progresses.  Maybe he will never be worth a 1st rounder, but most were aware that taking him in the 1st round was definitely a gamble.  He would likely never be one of the top producers, but could give + to elite numbers in multiple cats.  That is harder and harder to find anymore.  You can take the chances with the Hamilton's and DeShields, but I would not use them as comps to replace Turner.

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Been on base 2+ times in 8 of his last 11... also still hasn't been thrown out stealing.

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I don’t know what people are upset about. I’m thrilled. He’s getting better. BB% is an obscene 18.1%. That won’t continue but he’s making a lot more contact on pitches outside of the zone which is probably leading to longer, more competitive at bats. He is popping up more so far than he ever did but his hard hit % is the best it’s been. 

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On 4/17/2018 at 8:09 AM, Hanghow said:

I'd like one of the posters down on Turner to point to one peripheral that concerns them. I am seeing zero in the overall profile that is concerning. Hard hit% is up; swings at pitches out of the zone are down; contact is up; he's even 7 for 7 on stolen bases. I see zero to be concerned about unless you think there's a reason his BABIP has fallen off of a cliff.

10% popup rate

His average exit velocity on FB+LD is only 91.5 mph.

Thats 197th in MLB. He's also only hitting the ball in the air 31% of the time. Combine those 2 pieces of data and there won't be much power at all.

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3 for his last 19 ab with 1 run and 1 rbi. Dudes a beast! Totally locked in. Hitting .230 

Edited by The Dude81

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Can someone find the stats of Turner on leadoff vs hitting 2nd? I swear he isn't a good leadoff guy

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10 hours ago, The Dude81 said:

3 for his last 19 ab with 1 run and 1 rbi. Dudes a beast! Totally locked in. Hitting .230 

There are small sample sizes and there are SMALL sample sizes. This is the latter. Heck, that sample is so small, a stubbed toe could significantly affect it... or a hangover... or a fender bender.

 

Heck, if you did a little research, you'd find that the three starters in those games have an average BAA of .191, which means Turner's .230 is well above-average.

Edited by Hanghow

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1 hour ago, The Dude81 said:

Trea being Trea again tonight. #fantasybeast 

 

Do you have a problem with Trea Turner?

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On 3/30/2018 at 2:54 PM, shakestreet said:

When I seen this thread bumped ... I was worried something might have happened to Trea .

 

Nothing to see here.

 

 Instead 

 

It’s a bunch of couch managers freaking out

Lol 

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On 3/30/2018 at 2:54 PM, shakestreet said:

When I seen this thread bumped ... I was worried something might have happened to Trea .

 

Nothing to see here.

 

 Instead 

 

It’s a bunch of couch managers freaking out

Eaton will be the lead off hitter 

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2 hours ago, The Dude81 said:

Trea being Trea again tonight. #fantasybeast 

Check out that OBP.  He's now prime to do what people DREAMED they could get from Hamilton's most optimistic upside.  And then some.

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5 hours ago, Magoo said:

Check out that OBP.  He's now prime to do what people DREAMED they could get from Hamilton's most optimistic upside.  And then some.

Do you think this guy's doing the same thing in the Votto, Altuve, and Stanton threads or does he focus his hatred solely on Trea?

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16 hours ago, The Dude81 said:

Trea being Trea again tonight. #fantasybeast 

 

Waiting for your comment today on his performance....

 

#fantasybeast

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53 minutes ago, JuicyJ said:

3/4, 2 RBI, 1 R , SB so far. Not badddd not baddddd

 

Make that 4/5, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 SB

 

Avg up to .260 now.

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43 minutes ago, Helms said:

 

Waiting for your comment today on his performance....

 

#fantasybeast

Finally a solid showing from him!! Today is why I drafted him 4th overall. Hope he can keep it up. 

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5 hit day for Bae Turner. Raised his avg 35 points. Up to .267 now.

Edited by Helms
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51 minutes ago, Helms said:

5 hit day for Bae Turner. Raised his avg 35 points. Up to .267 now.

and a stolen base for his 10th.

 

this guy guy gonna steal 60-70 this year?

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