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Andrew Benintendi 2018 Outlook

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53 minutes ago, Gumbo_Ghost said:

Yeah, everything but HRs and AVG/OPS is there...

I assume he gets hot at some point and give us the 20-22 HRs still

Would happily settle for 15 at this stage as long as he keeps running

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Come on guys, this dude has pop! Yall know it! He will have his hot streaks regarding dingers. It looks like him at Betts are going to get 30+ steals this year, and if he manages to get 20-25 bombs....hell yes. Having him and betts in my OF may get me in the money. 

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This is largely anecdotal, but Benny seems like a guy that is more valuable to a Roto player than in H2H, just because he has that slow and steady production.  He will likely end up with 15-20 HR, 20-25 SB, 170 R+RBI, good AVG, etc that will be nice totals that play across the board in Roto.  But he's also a fairly steady producer that will give you a handful of counting stats each week, but won't necessarily "win weeks" for you in H2H.  Part of that is illusion, because you also don't want the 0-for weeks in H2H either that come with high variance players, but it also just feels boring in a way.

 

Kind of like Kyle Seager . . . you see him constantly described as boring and meh, and nobody ever seems excited to draft him, but he's also a very safe and consistent source of stats.  I'm not really saying this is a good or bad trait, but it does give the impression that he's not playing well, until you look at his numbers in September and realize he totaled more stats than you thought.

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Another 3-hit game for Benintendi, including his 3rd homer of the year. Currently riding an 8 game hitting streak that has seen his average rise from .244 to .266. Slashing .266/.350/.442 on the year.

 

On pace for 108 Runs, 11 HR,  85 RBI, 27 SB. 

 

Where are the haters?

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1 hour ago, mjb03003 said:

Another 3-hit game for Benintendi, including his 3rd homer of the year. Currently riding an 8 game hitting streak that has seen his average rise from .244 to .266. Slashing .266/.350/.442 on the year.

 

On pace for 108 Runs, 11 HR,  85 RBI, 27 SB. 

 

Where are the haters?

 

Would you be happy with a .266/108/11/85/27 line out of Benny if that's how he ended up?  Not saying you should or shouldn't be, just curious.

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5 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Would you be happy with a .266/108/11/85/27 line out of Benny if that's how he ended up?  Not saying you should or shouldn't be, just curious.

 

I wouldnt be angry but i would be dissapointed in the AVG and power numbers from what people were expecting

 

hopefully benny biceps hits a power surge during this hot stretch

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14 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Would you be happy with a .266/108/11/85/27 line out of Benny if that's how he ended up?  Not saying you should or shouldn't be, just curious.

 

I certainly wouldn't be disappointed. 108 runs would have been 9th in the league last season. Only 10 hitters had more than 27 SB last season. Obviously 11 HR is not what we were expecting, but he's hit 2 homers in just the last week, so his HR "pace" went from about 4 all season to 11. Another bomb in the next few days and he'll be on "pace" for about 15. 

 

He was hitting .218 with 1 HR three weeks ago. He's scored 16 runs and raised his average nearly 50 points since then. 

 

The reason I think his "pace stats" are relevant is that it takes the good with the bad and shows you where the guy would end up if he continued having a season of peaks and valleys (which is reasonable). It doesn't rely on him to maintain his current hot streak for the next 4.5 months. 

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7 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

I wouldnt be angry but i would be dissapointed in the AVG and power numbers from what people were expecting

 

hopefully benny biceps hits a power surge during this hot stretch

 

I agree.  I drafted Benny Biceps with big hopes that I would get 1st/2nd round value out of my 3rd round pick, but batted ball profile still shows even with increased biceps, he's not going to see an increase in homers without more loft and flyballs.  

 

.266 AVG and 11 HR doesn't sink your team if you drafted him in the 3rd round considering the rest of the counting stats are there, but it's still disappointing nonetheless.  At this point I'd be more happy with Yelich, Marte, or Cain a round or 2 (or 3 in case of Cain) later, but like I said Benny's doing enough not to be a deficit to your team for where he was drafted.

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1 minute ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I agree.  I drafted Benny Biceps with big hopes that I would get 1st/2nd round value out of my 3rd round pick, but batted ball profile still shows even with increased biceps, he's not going to see an increase in homers without more loft and flyballs.  

 

.266 AVG and 11 HR doesn't sink your team if you drafted him in the 3rd round considering the rest of the counting stats are there, but it's still disappointing nonetheless.  At this point I'd be more happy with Yelich, Marte, or Cain a round or 2 (or 3 in case of Cain) later, but like I said Benny's doing enough not to be a deficit to your team for where he was drafted.

 

I didn't pay a ton of attention to preseason ADP (I play in keeper/dynasty leagues mainly), but was he a top 30ish player by ADP?

Again, without looking 3rd round sounds like his peak, not leaving a ton of room for profit. I thought he was more of a 4th round guy. 

Either way - I agree that if the power continues to not be there he will be a disappointment for some, but if he's your biggest "miss" then you're probably in great shape. 

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1 minute ago, mjb03003 said:

 

I didn't pay a ton of attention to preseason ADP (I play in keeper/dynasty leagues mainly), but was he a top 30ish player by ADP?

Again, without looking 3rd round sounds like his peak, not leaving a ton of room for profit. I thought he was more of a 4th round guy. 

Either way - I agree that if the power continues to not be there he will be a disappointment for some, but if he's your biggest "miss" then you're probably in great shape. 

 

He was around ADP 40, so I should have clarified he's a 3rd rounder in 12 teamers.  And I agree, in hindsight it's not leaving a lot of room for profit, but you see a 20-20 rookie and top prospect packing on muscle, and you start thinking 30-30.  

 

As I've said in earlier posts, I think he could be good value next year in redraft, just because people overpaid on him this year and will have a sour taste in their mouths.  There may be some 'haters' out there that think he stinks, but I think for the most part people don't think he's a bad player, just that maybe he is what he is.  Which is good, but maybe just not top tier good.

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Lotta season left here, guys. He's heating up and is 7/7 in SBs. I still think the numbers will look real nice at season's end.

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21 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I agree.  I drafted Benny Biceps with big hopes that I would get 1st/2nd round value out of my 3rd round pick, but batted ball profile still shows even with increased biceps, he's not going to see an increase in homers without more loft and flyballs.  

 

.266 AVG and 11 HR doesn't sink your team if you drafted him in the 3rd round considering the rest of the counting stats are there, but it's still disappointing nonetheless.  At this point I'd be more happy with Yelich, Marte, or Cain a round or 2 (or 3 in case of Cain) later, but like I said Benny's doing enough not to be a deficit to your team for where he was drafted.

Did he increase his biceps?? lol I didn't hear anything about this going into the season.

 

Anyway, I'm happy he's picked things up because he was struggling a couple weeks ago.

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This may be a case of 5X5 being too simplistic a setting to display a player's value.  I play in a 16 team league with a lot more categories and Benintendi fills up the sheet every week.  21 BBs to 30 Ks.  12 doubles.  3 triples.  Leads my team in runs with 28.  The guy seems to do it all really.  I'm not sour about the 3 HRs because players, especially young ones, find their power stride at different times in the season.  The jacks will come but I doubt he gets to 30 as we're already a fourth into the season.  I think 20-30 is a fair and reasonable projection.

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Hitting in the 2-hole in that lineup, I agree, the counting stats should wind up looking pretty good (provided he stays healthy).  I'm not sure where people took him in drafts, so I guess it is relative to how much you think he is doing versus some other player taken around the same round.  I own him in a keeper league and think he's got a lot of value.   I see him as a Jason Bay type of player, with less power and a bit more speed then Bay had in his prime years.

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On 5/10/2018 at 8:28 AM, mjb03003 said:

 

Eh, even with his early struggles he's maintained a solid OBP (.340 currently), and he's on pace for 99 Runs, 81 RBI, and 22 SB. 

 

One little hot stretch and he'll be back on pace for ~20 homers to go along with those counting stats. If he's the worst draft pick you made, you're probably doing very well. 

 

The best is yet to come. 

 

Sure enough, a little power binge has occurred and here are Benintendi's current pace stats:

 

107 Runs, 17 HR, 100 RBI, 27 SB, .285/.367/.477

 

Hard to find fault with anything in that stat line, regardless of format or where you drafted him. And he didn't hit his 2nd homer of the season until May 9th...

 

Ranked 29th overall in my mixed league (standard 5 cat), 15th overall in my AL Only (uses OPS as the 6th category and NSB instead of SB), and 27th overall in my other mixed league (uses OBP instead of average).  

Edited by mjb03003
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currently ahead of the likes of harper, springer, giancarlo, etc and just behind blackmon in terms of season ranking.  not too shabby....

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11 hours ago, herschel said:

currently ahead of the likes of harper, springer, giancarlo, etc and just behind blackmon in terms of season ranking.  not too shabby....

But but but....... We were told by the fantasy football guys that we were wrong to hold onto him. #shortattentionspan

200w.webp

 

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Any concern from owners, that he will get moved down in the order (like 7th-8th in the lineup) with Pedroia coming back?  Not immediately, but not sure how Cora will construct the lineup when Pedroia starts to hit.  Would be a big hit to his value if Beni is moved down to the lower half of the lineup.

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11 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

Any concern from owners, that he will get moved down in the order (like 7th-8th in the lineup) with Pedroia coming back?  Not immediately, but not sure how Cora will construct the lineup when Pedroia starts to hit.  Would be a big hit to his value if Beni is moved down to the lower half of the lineup.

I doubt it. Pedroia is 34 coming off a major injury. He'll need plenty of off days. At most maybe a platoon of the 2 spot. Benintendi splits all the righties at the top of the lineup and has done nothing to warrant a demotion. 

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On 5/24/2018 at 10:38 PM, BigPapi44 said:

Any concern from owners, that he will get moved down in the order (like 7th-8th in the lineup) with Pedroia coming back?  Not immediately, but not sure how Cora will construct the lineup when Pedroia starts to hit.  Would be a big hit to his value if Beni is moved down to the lower half of the lineup.

No Pedroia sucks bad

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