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2018 "Deep" Sleepers

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Josh Naylor, in the Padres loaded system, is going to be climbing some charts, could be a great trade piece to the AL for an Ace type SP

 

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Posted (edited)

Wowwwww Angel's getting aggressive with these guys... love it.

 

 

Stock will explode with AA success.

Edited by Dirtywater97
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canning's the household name there but take a minute to take a look at suarez. lefty whose stuff has apparently ticked up this year, pretty fascinating numbers in his first two starts. i was already circling around him and just picked him up figuring this news bump from the promotion may start to raise his profile

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, wily mo said:

canning's the household name there but take a minute to take a look at suarez. lefty whose stuff has apparently ticked up this year, pretty fascinating numbers in his first two starts. i was already circling around him and just picked him up figuring this news bump from the promotion may start to raise his profile

 

 

 

From what I know about Suarez, he has a low 90s fastball and a good changeup and good command.

 

Did he gain velocity? I can’t find any news on it. Just asking in case you personally know a team scout or something (or have some other source about his stuff ticking up).

Edited by fawkes_mulder

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3 minutes ago, fawkes_mulder said:

 

From what I know about Suarez, he has a low 90s fastball and a good changeup and good command.

 

Did he gain velocity? I can’t find any news on it. Just asking in case you personally know a team scout or something (or have some other source about his stuff ticking up).

 

haha no i don't know anybody, just the usual twitter chatter

 

 

 

doesn't sound like he's suddenly turned into a Big Fastball Guy or anything, but bumping up from 90-91 to 92-94 can make a big difference if you're already a lefty with a changeup and good command. he's still only like 20 this year

 

 

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3 minutes ago, wily mo said:

 

haha no i don't know anybody, just the usual twitter chatter

 

 

 

doesn't sound like he's suddenly turned into a Big Fastball Guy or anything, but bumping up from 90-91 to 92-94 can make a big difference if you're already a lefty with a changeup and good command. he's still only like 20 this year

 

 

 

Thanks for these tweets. If he’s in that 92-95 range as a lefty, that’s a pretty significant jump. I may add.

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I believe that was his 2nd start this year (didn't play all of last year recovering from TJS). First couple starts, still getting his feet under him, but hitting 96 is a good sign. Some feel for the breaking stuff.

 

Law had some good things to say about him in the offseason as well.....

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Here's a fun one: a 20-year-old who's already a post-hype sleeper. Remember Brewers SS/3B Gilbert Lara?

 

He signed for $3.2 million in 2014, generated a ton of hype in 2015 with his instructional league performance, even had a thread in this very forum and was probably on some dynasty rosters. Over the last 3 years, he crashed off prospect lists and his thread now gathers dust in the archive. His 2017 at Low-A Wisconsin was truly horrific (193/226/269, 3.8 BB%, 33.8 K%).

 

This year, suddenly he's slashing 394/459/667 with 13.3 K% and 16.7 BB%. Of course a 37-PA sample does not erase 3 years of miserable failure, but even the most negative scouting reports have always acknowledged him as a potential star with huge raw power, and a good enough glove to certainly play 3B and maybe even stick at SS. He needs to keep this up for a fairly long time but he's worth adding to watch lists at least.

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Alvaro Seijas, SP Stl 

 

4/15 vs Wisconsin 

5 ip, 1 er, 7k, 2 bb

 

 

Touted as a top arm in the '15 International signing class, Seijas numbers a year ago jumped off the page, but not in a good way (poor strand rates, .400 average on balls in play, ERA hovering near 5)

 

However, he looks much improved thus far in 2018, and could emerge as a breakout candidate in his first professional full season in the Midwest League.

 

Having always shown a solid make-up & mound presence, the 19 year old Seijas offers a fastball that sits between 92-94  (topping out at 96), a decent splitter and a curve that flashes plus.  The change-up has taken a step forward, though its still a work in progress.  The delivery is a bit busy, and stands to be refined a bit, which could lead to a further uptick in velocity.  He has held velocity deeper into games thus far in 2018, which is something that he struggled with a season ago. At such a young age there is certainly room for overall growth once the frame fully fills out.  

 

Overall the tool set is there, and the early results are inspiring enough for me to call attention to his name.  

 

 

 

 

 

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Little more on Kay: 

 

Was drafted by NYM back in 2013 out of HS. Didn't sign. Went to University of Connecticut. Pitched their for 3 years where he accumulated a stat line of: 286 IP, 234 H, 84 ER (2.64 ERA), 102 BB, 263 K. 

 

Worked pretty hard in college. Entered the 2016 draft. Mets took him with their second pick of the draft at 31st overall (compensation pick for losing Murphy).

 

Didn't pitch in any games as a pro after getting drafted. Underwent TJS in October of 2016. Missed the entire 2017 season.

 

Was originally thought to be a guy who could move quicker+more advanced/polished. TJS obviously put all of that on hold. Turned 23 about a month ago.

 

John Calvagno (who I believe is a member of these forums) is a great source for Sally League coverage and he saw Kay's first start and wrote up some notes here: http://notesfromthesally.com/2018/04/09/scouting-anthony-kay-lhp-columbia/

 

Good thing is a lot of the reports from his days of a draft prospect indicate his FB topped out at 95ish, so it appears his velocity is just about all the way back. Still likely some rust which is understandable given the time off.

 

Probably not the highest ceiling out there, but could be mid rotation upside (Longenhagen in his Mets write up indicated #4 ceiling. Law appears to be a bit higher). Needs to prove his health and get innings under him this year while continuing to develop, but he isn't super far away. 

 

Limited gifs/video available right now, but some from his two starts this year: 

 

https://twitter.com/Astromets31/status/983044026113974272

 

https://twitter.com/Astromets31/status/983044850009477121

 

https://twitter.com/Astromets31/status/983045419021357056

 

https://twitter.com/Astromets31/status/983056348152770560

 

https://twitter.com/Astromets31/status/983057007652622336

 

https://twitter.com/Astromets31/status/983057242932109313

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9 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Here's a fun one: a 20-year-old who's already a post-hype sleeper. Remember Brewers SS/3B Gilbert Lara?

 

He signed for $3.2 million in 2014, generated a ton of hype in 2015 with his instructional league performance, even had a thread in this very forum and was probably on some dynasty rosters. Over the last 3 years, he crashed off prospect lists and his thread now gathers dust in the archive. His 2017 at Low-A Wisconsin was truly horrific (193/226/269, 3.8 BB%, 33.8 K%).

 

This year, suddenly he's slashing 394/459/667 with 13.3 K% and 16.7 BB%. Of course a 37-PA sample does not erase 3 years of miserable failure, but even the most negative scouting reports have always acknowledged him as a potential star with huge raw power, and a good enough glove to certainly play 3B and maybe even stick at SS. He needs to keep this up for a fairly long time but he's worth adding to watch lists at least.

 

Interesting.   I was one of those who rostered him a few years ago...

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Dylan Carlson - OF - STL - A

 

Cards 1st rounder (33rd overall) out of high school 2016. Switch hitter, risk/reward guy who may move to 1B/DH as he fills out.

 

.240/.342/.347 last year in A ball, in a year of ups and downs as he made swing adjustments. 

 

Longenhagen:

 

...Carlson, a switch-hitting 18-year-old, spent the entire year in full-season ball using a re-tooled left-handed swing that generated more airborne contact than it did last year. His fly-ball rate rose from 29% to 40%, according to our metrics, and Carlson held his 25% strkeout rate through this change while walking at an 11.5% clip.

 

He’s athletic and still physically projectable and likely to grow into more game power as he matures.

His right-handed swing is long and flat. He’s more strikeout prone from that side and has less potential for impact power. But Carlson made just 125 plate appearances as a right-handed hitter in 2017 and is seeing left-handed pitching that’s several magnitudes better than anything he saw in high school. He needs more time to adjust.

 

Repeating A, still young for his level, he's slashing early: .286/.459/.500 with 173 wRC+ and a pretty 9 BB to 5 K.

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Tirso Ornelas, OF/1B SD

DOB: 3/11/2000

(yup.... another projectable Padres prospect )

 

2018 Stats

.256 Avg

1 HR

5 RBI

.356 OB%

 

 

A J2 signing back in 2016, Ornelas has impressed since coming stateside.  As a 17 year old last year he showed well in RK ball behind a smooth swing and solid (advanced) approach, consistently getting on base to the tune of a .399 OB%.   

 

An aggressive assignment landed him in Fort Wayne to begin 2018, and he has held his own thus far, despite being the second youngest player in the Midwest.  The fence-clearing-strength has yet to develop at the pro level, but that should change as he grows into his 6'4 frame.  In the interim he can spray the ball to all-fields with doubles power. 

 

He is still plenty raw at this point, but with solid fundamentals already in place, a remarkable work ethic & maturity beyond his years...he could quickly emerge on the '18 prospect scene

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Reggie Lawson, 20 year old starting pitcher for the Padres.  He was the 71st pick of the 2016 draft.  Last year in full season who struggled with walks (35 in 73 innings).  Lawson was still promoted in high A Lake Elsinore.  In three starts this year he has only walked three batters in 15 innings and has allowed two runs with a 0.87 whip and 20 strikeouts.

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2 hours ago, Lonny Baxter said:

Reggie Lawson, 20 year old starting pitcher for the Padres.  He was the 71st pick of the 2016 draft.  Last year in full season who struggled with walks (35 in 73 innings).  Lawson was still promoted in high A Lake Elsinore.  In three starts this year he has only walked three batters in 15 innings and has allowed two runs with a 0.87 whip and 20 strikeouts.

 

Nice tout. 2080 recently wrote a bit about him: https://2080baseball.com/2018/04/weekly-prospect-spotlights-daulton-varsho-and-cal-league-notes/

 

Quote

San Diego selected Lawson 71st overall in the 2016 Draft as a rangy, projectable high schooler. He has continued to fill out and add to a physical 6-foot-4 frame, now weighing in at 205 pounds. Still wiry, Lawson will keep adding stuff and repeat his delivery better as he grows into his body.

I saw his first start of the year, where he showed a plus fastball that sat 93-to-95 mph and touched as high as 97 with tailing action. He creates steep downhill plane and gets quality extension, allowing him to pitch up in the zone with success. It is easy to project up on his future control and command, and at maturity Lawson’s fastball looks like a double-plus out pitch. His go-to secondary is a mid-70s curveball that flashes swing-and-miss action at best with 12-to-6 shape. The breaker is more a chase pitch now, but he has a feel for it and will be more effective with his curve once he’s able to land it for early-count strikes. Like many young pitchers with a power fastball/curveball mix, Lawson’s changeup is behind his primary two pitches. Even so, he’s able to fade the ball at times, and with 86-to-87 mph velo, there’s plenty of separation off his fastball.

A physical athlete with premium velocity and plus feel to spin the ball, Lawson has all the ingredients you look for in a big league pitching prospect. He’s definitely raw in terms of his ability to show three pitches and command the ball, but I’m willing to project aggressively given the frame and excellent mound presence that he possesses. If he can develop more of a well-rounded feel to pitch, the ceiling is a #3 starter. His two-pitch mix is tempting in the bullpen, and he could be a high-leverage reliever if it doesn’t click as a starter.

 

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Anybody on Freddy Tarnok, P ATL? 

 

Definitely a deeper league guy, but was a 3rd round pick for the Braves last year out of high school and they have him in LoA ball. Not sure what their plan with him is, he's thrown 2IP twice and an inning once. I highly doubt they are going to develop him as a RP, and are just building up his strength. He's a guy that didn't pitch until late in his high school career, so he has low mileage on his arm. 

 

A little blurb from Pipeline 

 

Quote

Tarnok's Draft profile jumped because of an increase in velocity with his fastball. He will now sit in the low-90s and touches 95-96 mph at times, and with his projectable 6-foot-3 frame, it's easy to dream about more velocity to come as he fills out. His fastball already plays up some because of his extension and ability to throw downhill, with good finish at the end. He has a good feel to spin his breaking ball, a power curve that should be at least average, and he's already shown progress with his changeup.

A solid athlete who didn't pitch until his junior year, Tarnok still has a lot to learn, but that athleticism should allow him to find a repeatable delivery and to throw strikes. Based on the fact he is now focusing on pitching only for the first time and has so much room for added strength, Tarnok's ceiling is considerable.

 

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One more, not sure if he's been mentioned.. MJ Melendez, C KC.. was a 2nd round pick last year out of high school.. signed for basically first round money $2.1m.. They have him in LoA ball already.. One of the most athletic catchers in the minors.. Hit his first bomb tonight and is holding his own so far in the SAL at 19. 

 

His dad is a manager at a college program (want to say it was Florida Atlantic or somewhere in Florida) so he's grown up around baseball. Said to have a plus arm with a potential of plus defense.. If his bat continues to get better, he's got a really good chance of being an every day big leaguer. Already one of the better prospects in the Royals system, although that's not saying a whole lot.

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On 4/15/2018 at 10:49 AM, wily mo said:

 

haha no i don't know anybody, just the usual twitter chatter

 

 

 

doesn't sound like he's suddenly turned into a Big Fastball Guy or anything, but bumping up from 90-91 to 92-94 can make a big difference if you're already a lefty with a changeup and good command. he's still only like 20 this year

 

 

 

Angels have so many interesting guys -

 

Suarez 

Canning

Soriano

Dominguez

Barria

 

Anybody want to take a shot at ranking them?   Personally I Chase upside/ceiling/stuff with prospects in dynasty and have Canning #1. After that...shrug.

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Posted (edited)

just as a catchall post here - my main league goes 400 prospects deep, and i tend to avoid spending resources on high draft picks, so i end up trolling the fringe guys and deep sleepers type threads a lot

 

so here's a list of all the guys i've picked up so far this year, with a little footnote on each one

 

i tend to focus on finding guys who i think can make the majors within a year or two, due to my league's rules, while still providing some semblance of upside. i'll make an exception for teenagers in low-A if they seem like real studs, like the eloy / vlad / tatis types, but that's about it. and we don't really seem to have many of those so far this year

 

HITTERS

 

C eric haase CLE AAA (massive power last year, already in AAA. strikes out an awful lot so risky, but catchers who do anything offensively are great)

C seby zavala CWS AA (hitting well in AA, trying to steal the white sox catcher of the future label from z collins) 

C tyler stephenson CIN A+ (former high draft pick / top 100 guy, just look at his numbers so far)

 

SS/3B gilbert lara MIL A (discussed on thread)

 

OF jose adolis garcia STL AAA (think he's overlooked, everyone calls him a 4th OF but he's done nothing but hit, and he's close)

OF(/3B) rosell herrera CIN AAA (just grabbed him today, kind of a random flyer but he used to be a blue chipper and he's hitting a lot so far this year, reds should have jobs open if he keeps it up)

 

PITCHERS

 

SP duane underwood jr CHC AAA (had a good first couple outings and i pick him up every time he does that because i'm a sucker for his fastball)

SP dennis santana LAD AA (probably shouldn't have been unowned)

SP josh james HOU AA (discussed on thread; 25 years old but they're saying his fastball's up to 98 this year)

SP kohl stewart MIN AA (don't look now but in his first couple starts he's actually getting Ks. may have changed something)

SP jose suarez ANA AA (discussed on thread; just had 9 Ks in 3.2 innings in his first AA start)

 

some other guys i've picked up and then dropped again but still keep an eye on -

hector perez SP HOU (A+),

juan yepez 1B/3B STL (A),

javier guerra SS SD (AAA)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by wily mo
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it's kind of weird how positions go in cycles. so far this year i'm zeroing in on a lot of pitchers and catchers, and having trouble getting anybody i like at all into my other hitter slots.

 

 with catchers i've got haase / seby / tyler steph, plus keibert held over from last year. then there's also connor wong and garrett stubbs, who i didn't have room for and other teams in my league already picked up, plus brett nicholas is still hitting in AAA, kyle farmer is interesting on the dodgers bench, and probably one or two other guys

 

then there's all the pitchers i listed, plus tony santillan, reggie lawson, james naile, sandy baez and JT brubaker from the fangraphs fringe five, and so on

 

some years i can't find a single SP i think is worth picking up and get more outfielders than i can shake a stick at, this year so far it's pretty much the opposite

 

just random i guess

 

 

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this week's pickups: 

 

enyel de los santos SP PHI AAA (got from the padres for galvis, here's a scouting report: https://www.patreon.com/posts/milb-quick-day-18352526 )

cavan biggio 2B TOR AA (biggio's kid, teammates with vlad and dante's kids in tor AA, hitting more than any of them so far. swing change? not sure yet)

calvin mitchell OF PIT A (top high school bat who had a so-so senior year and dropped to second round, raking so far)

buddy reed OF SD A+ (huge athlete, speed, some power, couldn't hit. late to baseball, worked to refine hitting this winter. college aged so could move fast if it clicks)

hudson potts 3B SD A+ (another prep star, reed's teammate, only 19, hitting. slow few days since i picked him up but age/level gives leeway)

 

reds just called up rosell herrera so that flyer's working better than expected so far

 

to make room for these guys i dropped kohl stewart and underwood (bad starts this week, out you go), haase (didn't really want to but he's not hitting that much so far), and jose suarez (i still like him a lot, i just like enyel DLS more)

 

i do a lot of churn

 

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Posted (edited)

Not sure he is a "deep sleeper" but Tony Santillan. High 90s FB, slider, and change up flash plus. His biggest problem was command & control.

 

This year he started off with 21 scoreless innings pitched and he is rocking a 2.03BB/9 vs 3.94BB/9 last year.

 

Dennis Santana of the Dodgers is super interesting too.

Edited by Dirtywater97
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