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Mike Trout 2018 Outlook

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18 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

i understand and agree the consistency and greatness year in year out is unchalleneged

but talking strictly value wise trout doesnt provide production that other players cant match like LT/holmes for example that would make snake drafts dumb because they were so much more valuable than everyone else

 

 

7 minutes ago, taobball said:

The point isn't comparing Trout to other first round hits, the point is comparing Trout to other first round PLAYERS. There's first round busts every year, or at least underperformers. I had Trout as a #1 overall pick last year....When he was HURT! and getting .306 33/22 in limited time certainly didn't ruin my fantasy team. Far better than getting 2017 Mookie or 2016 Bryce, who were ranked both years as players who should challenge Trout 

 

We're a third of the way into Mike Trout's 7th season. Extending his 6th and 7th season to full seasons:

(I'm obviously ignoring the Cup of Coffee)

 

(data = worst to best)

Mike Trout has a BA above .300 5 of 7 seasons: .287, .299, .306, .313, .315, .323, .326

 

More than 30 HRs in 5 of 7 seasons: 27, 29, 30, 36, 41, 42*, 48*

 

More than 30 SBs in 4 of 7 seasons: 11, 16, 28*, 30, 33, 34*, 49

 

More than 100 Rs in all 7 Seasons: 104, 109, 115, 118*, 123, 127*, 129 (and over 115 Runs in 5/7)

 

RBIs are his worst stat: 83, 90, 92*, 96*, 97, 100, 111

 

Call me when you find someone else who sniffs that year-to-year. 

 

 

 

And also building off this once more, in a league where I can trade draft picks, I would give a significant mid-round draft pick to move up from #TWO overall to #ONE overall so I could get Trout. 

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IMO, draft strategy based on league structure/format may be being dismissed.

 

Trout's overall value in your average points league is compared to the elite tier SP1s and elite position players.  Under that scenario, his value may be analyzed up against the "top tier players", heavily favoring elite starting pitching.  You're then going to rank accordingly, SP1s and position players.  Of course all of this depends on the scoring format.  

 

The average roto and h2h category based leagues flip that comparison on its head however.  Under these formats the value elite position players rises, leveling their value against the elite pitching tier.  Context needs to be considered here when discussing Trout's value.

Edited by cab083

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@taobball you dont need to tell me how good trout is i already know that but you had the potential to get trout like production in the back half of the 1st rd this year (mookie betts) 

 

back in 2006 you had 0 chance to get a player that could match LT production in the back half of the 1st rd

now if trout puts up a 50/40/130/130 season and blows away everyone then i would agree with the statement that snake drafts are obsolete 

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17 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

@taobball you dont need to tell me how good trout is i already know that but you had the potential to get trout like production in the back half of the 1st rd this year (mookie betts) 

 

 

My argument is based on the fact that your argument is based on hindsight. So this does not help your point. 

 

Again, you have to compare to first round players, not first round successes. By your argument you could have as easily landed Goldschmidt this year.

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30 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

My argument is based on the fact that your argument is based on hindsight. So this does not help your point. 

 

Again, you have to compare to first round players, not first round successes. By your argument you could have as easily landed Goldschmidt this year.

your completely missing my point. there was no player capable to produce like LT in the back half half of 1st rd. not physically possible.

there are players capable to produce like trout this year that you could of got back end of rd 1 in snake drafts.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

your completely missing my point. there was no player capable to produce like LT in the back half half of 1st rd. not physically possible.

there are players capable to produce like trout this year that you could of got back end of rd 1 in snake drafts.

 

 

 

Right, but the argument here is that there is a significant gap between #1 and #2, and that hurts the snake because getting #1 is significantly better than getting #2. I believe that is true, because of the security, and not needing to wait til the end of the year to say who I should’ve picked at #2. 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Right, but the argument here is that there is a significant gap between #1 and #2, and that hurts the snake because getting #1 is significantly better than getting #2. I believe that is true, because of the security, and not needing to wait til the end of the year to say who I should’ve picked at #2. 

yes but atleast you have a chance if you pick right to get similar/better production. if you had no chance to get the type of production trout provided then i would agree about snake drafts.

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Just now, colepenhagen said:

yes but atleast you have a chance if you pick right to get similar/better production. if you had no chance to get the type of production trout provided then i would agree about snake drafts.

 

Sure never disagreed with that. I’d prefer certainty to chance. 

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18 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Sure never disagreed with that. I’d prefer certainty to chance. 

ha as would most which is why trout goes 1.1 every year (except for those cool guys that had altuve 1.1)

mookie is returning same value as trout and trea turner combined. so as long as that is physically possible another example blackmon/stanton last year, mookie/kershaw/altuve 2 years ago, then snake drafts arent obsolete

 

trout and mookie are both head and shoulders above next closest bats ozzie/machado/jdm 

 

edit - even pujols and arod had to contend with david lee, howard, tex, hanley, mags ect

 

 

Edited by colepenhagen

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

ha as would most which is why trout goes 1.1 every year (except for those cool guys that had altuve 1.1)

mookie is returning same value as trout and trea turner combined. so as long as that is physically possible another example blackmon/stanton last year, mookie/kershaw/altuve 2 years ago, then snake drafts arent obsolete

 

trout and mookie are both head and shoulders above next closest bats ozzie/machado/jdm 

 

edit - even pujols and arod had to contend with david lee, howard, tex, hanley, mags ect

 

 

 

We're being far too circular here. You're continuously not dealing with my argument or what my stance is. 

 

At 1.1, you have the choice between Trout and Trout. Picking right and picking wrong are irrelevant. 

 

At 1.6, you have the choice between Betts and Goldschmidt. Picking right you get a first round player. Picking wrong right now gives you a player who's the 35th best First Baseman right now through two months. 

 

You're right, there's not a massive difference between what you could get on the POSITIVE side, but there is a massive difference on the negative side, sans injury greater than his 2017 ailment. 

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@taobball the whole point of all of my messages is that trout isnt that huge of an advantage that it ruins snake drafts  and owning trout doesnt just lock up your playoff spot or championship 

 

thats the last thing i will post

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On 5/27/2018 at 5:02 PM, colepenhagen said:

@taobball the whole point of all of my messages is that trout isnt that huge of an advantage that it ruins snake drafts  and owning trout doesnt just lock up your playoff spot or championship 

 

thats the last thing i will post

Bro, it's time for you to just give it up. To say Trout is the best player in baseball is an insult. You must not even cast doubt upon Trout being some ultra deified status on this roto board or recieve laughs and headshakes by the masses. But as we know at this point, majority does not always mean accuracy. 

 

Look a few pages back, this is a board that is somehow convinced that Trout's equal value is a fair comparison to Bryce Harper AND Manny Machado.. Yes, a 2-for-1, and which I tried to qualify, a Redraft! To me and my sorry opinions, that seems like sheer blind assumption.

 

Again, the reason why I won my league last year by trading away Trout (2-for-1) and lost points in another league by trading for Trout (1-for-3), is what I suspect due to the same kind of attitudes we see on this board: a sheer overrating of Trout

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For redrafts only,  i agree that he carries even more trade value then stat value.  I've never owned him in redraft,  but a month I'd be looking to sell.  

 

But in my keep forever league,  you'd have to kidnap my daughter to get me to trade him.  And even then I'm probably calling  Liam Neeson first before i make that deal

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Insane how short that swing is while generating such power. He didn't even follow through at all on that HR swing, just a flick of the bat.

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57 minutes ago, DidiFan said:

Two more tonight for the 2018 MVP. 

He eats Mariner pitching alive.  Get ready for some more tomorrow.  

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Stupid how he generates such power from such a short swing. Just ridiculously quick wrists and bat speed. 40/30 season acoming?

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1 hour ago, swfcdan said:

Stupid how he generates such power from such a short swing. Just ridiculously quick wrists and bat speed. 40/30 season acoming?

50/40 with a full season.

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18 hours ago, Magoo said:

50/40 with a full season.

If he really wanted... He could go 50/50.  ***If he really wanted***

 

Who knows maybe some one will make a bet with him in the locker room...and he'll start getting aggressive. 

 

Just please dive feet first.

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18 hours ago, Magoo said:

50/40 with a full season.

I could see 50/30 at this pace. Meh even if the steals dry up I think ill take 50/25.

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