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Mookie Betts 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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Auction Drafted last night in a league that counts OPS as a 6th cateogry and Mookie went for a surprising amount - $45 - which seems fair except this league was rather stupid, 75 for Trout, 60 for Goldy, 65 for Altuve.  You get the idea.

 

Seems like people are a little Bearish on Betts.

 

I'm not completely down on betts, I just don't like the fact that after a poor year he's getting very little discount.  

 

Compare him to his alternatives:

 

Trea Turner:  Chance to hit 60-75 Sbs, almost singlehandedly winnning this category for you while not hurting you in other categories.  If Turner clicks on all levels .300+ Avg and 15 +Hrs he has a chance to be by far the most valuable fantasy player.  Also plays a premium position.

 

Nolan Arenado.  Can fall out of bed and hit 30+ Hrs and 110+ RBIs buoyed by the confidence of playing at Coors. 

 

Paul Goldschmidt.  Much more proven track record of multi category dominance. 

 

Scherzer -Kluber - Sale - Kershaw - There's some good reasons to take an Elite SP early.

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Calling Betts 2017 poor is like calling Kershaw's 2012 season poor because despite 220 innings of dominant pitching he only had 14 wins. 

 

 

 

 

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Well, no, because Betts OPSed. .803 last year and Kershaw' was one of the two best pitchers in the game during the 2012 season. So not similar at all, really. 

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Had him in 2016 but not last year so I’m a fanboy but I’m picking 9/10 this year and every time I mock I really don’t want him to be there. I think if he goes before me and allows a Blackmon Goldy or Harper to fall to me I’m in a much better spot already 

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1 hour ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Calling Betts 2017 poor is like calling Kershaw's 2012 season poor because despite 220 innings of dominant pitching he only had 14 wins. 

 

 

 

 

Rated 47th among all batters in my league that counts Ave & OBP. Despite having 200 more AB than Harper, Betts is still ranked behind him. Both were top ten picks but at least Harper lost out on being injured.  Harper missed 51 games and Betts missed 9. 

 

In no category was Betts dominant.

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1 hour ago, HighHeat11 said:

Betts is overrated. Give me a guy like Springer

 

So you’re saying you want betts without the speed? 

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Is it me or does Mookie look off? I have watched over 800 of his AB's and he looks kind weak or something, not sure. Grounding out on those low and outside pitches, fouling off pitches he always drove, not sure.

 

Not worried but he just looks off. I know that is what spring is for but still

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On 12/13/2017 at 2:02 PM, hailtoyourvictor said:

People touting Trea as a 75 steal guy (something he hasn't done) and in the same breathe saying Betts is unlikely to be a .290/25/100/90/25 guy (something he has done) is interesting.

 

It's not.

 

Similar example: I have a 4 sided die (die A) and a 3 sided die (die B). I roll them each twice.

4sided(A): 2 2

3sided(B): 1 3

 

Guess what? I'd still be touting the 3sided(B) die to be more likely to land '2' on the next roll, despite it never having done it and the 4sided(A) die having done it.

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43 minutes ago, phoenixbases said:

 

It's not.

 

Similar example: I have a 4 sided die (die A) and a 3 sided die (die B). I roll them each twice.

4sided(A): 2 2

3sided(B): 1 3

 

Guess what? I'd still be touting the 3sided(B) die to be more likely to land '2' on the next roll, despite it never having done it and the 4sided(A) die having done it.

That’s cute, except we’re talking about people with skillsets, not randomness where everything has the exact chance of happening. We’re not rolling a damn die lol

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6 hours ago, molski said:

 

So you’re saying you want betts without the speed? 

Springer hit 11 more hr then betts and missed a month

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I think Betts will be OK. I really do. He was mildly disappointing last year, his 3rd full year in MLB. Even using last year's stats he's worthy of a 2nd-3rd round pick 12-team. He doesn't turn 26 until OCT. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

Trout is 26 lol

Right. And Mookie is turning 26 at the very end of the season. This is his age-25 season. The random nonsense in this thread is frustrating. 

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On 3/24/2018 at 8:20 PM, SuperJoint said:

I think Betts will be OK. I really do. He was mildly disappointing last year, his 3rd full year in MLB. Even using last year's stats he's worthy of a 2nd-3rd round pick 12-team. He doesn't turn 26 until OCT. 

 

 

i would like to be in the league where you can get him in the "2nd-3rd round".  

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Just now, herschel said:

i would like to be in the league where you can get him in the "2nd-3rd round".  

 

Well I said this before my draft, where I got him at 1.11.

 

Every little bit helps.

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2 minutes ago, HighHeat11 said:

I like mookie but give me springer

Very different players. Springer is great but far less upside given declining SB rate

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15 minutes ago, HighHeat11 said:

He hit 11 more hr then betts and scored 116 and he missed a month 

With declining SB rate in league, a 25-25/30-30 OF is going to be much more valuable than a Springer who has more CS than SBs the last 2 years.  Unless he magically learns how to run Mookie could hit .260 like last year (which he won’t come close to again) and still outproduce him.  Don’t overthink it.

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2 hours ago, HighHeat11 said:

He hit 11 more hr then betts and scored 116 and he missed a month 

Springer played in 13 fewer games (83 fewer PA/80 fewer AB) than Mookie, and it was only 10 more HR.  The year before Springer hit 2 fewer HRs than Mookie in similar PAs.  The difference in runs is similar to that of RBIs, and that difference can mostly be attributed to spot in the batting order.  Springer is also 3 years older than Mookie.  

If you like Springer more thats ok, draft him.  If it's me I'm betting on Mookie.

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