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Tommy Pham 2018 Outlook

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46 minutes ago, Chris O'Leary said:

Curious if anyone's seen the Sarris piece in The Athletic that discusses Tommy Pham and bat wrap.

 

What's the gist?

 

 

The Athletic also did a great story on Aaron Judge and his bat wrap.  In Spring Training last year he had a private hitting coach teach him how Barry Bonds used bat wrap to generate more bat velocity .  When Judge showed up to ST as just a guy looking to earn a spot, everyone said what the hell is this guy doing with that swing.

 

Bonds.gif

 

 

As Eno's article points out, Pham's bat wrap has indeed created a positive impact on his exit velocity.

 

But what Pham created in more power, he's lost in timing.  

 

The heat chart showed that last year he waited on sinkers to hit more that could lead to a higher OPS.  Now that he isn't giving himself the same opportunity to see the pitches he wants, he swinging on those bad sinkers that create ground outs.

 

I wish Eno would have touched on how this ties into his dramatically negative results in whiffs on off speed pitches.  His swing and whiff rate is up to 50%  since April on off speed pitches and the scouting report is out on that as he's seeing more and more. I just assume that since his timing is off on fastballs, it's creating an exponential impact on his ability to hit off speed pitches.  Which makes sense.  If you're struggling with a two-seamer, you're going to get eaten alive by a curve or change. 

 

 

Edited by 3Sheets1elbow
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45 minutes ago, 3Sheets1elbow said:

But what Pham created in more power, he's lost in timing. 

 

Buster Posey bat wraps like a mofo...

 

Pham's problem is Swing Length, but Bat Wrap isn't the problem. It's a Phony Flaw...

 

http://clients.chrisoleary.com/Hitting/Webbooks/Hitting-Mechanics-101/First-Do-No-Harm/Phony-Flaws#Bat_Wrap

 

Pham's problem is his Hands...

 

http://clients.chrisoleary.com/Hitting/Lessons/Tommy-Pham/2018

 

The guys Eno talked to for his piece haven't produced any major league hitters.

 

For a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Chris O'Leary said:

 

Buster Posey bat wraps like a mofo...

 

 

 

 

Touch to compare against one of the best and most consistent hitter this decade, but yeah, Buster's hands are in a favorable position to use a bat wrap.  If Pham is moving the bat head towards the pitcher with his hands starting out below his shoulder, he's gonna have a bad time.

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He looks toast at the plate right now. Missed easy fastballs with the bases loaded and then swings at trash in the dirt. 

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Dude has been unplayable the last month. A whopping -1 on the player rater last 30 days. Surprised he is still over 90% owned on ESPN.  

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Hitting 8th today. This is pretty hideous right now. 

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He's hit safely in 4 of his last 18 starts, during which he's 8-for-65 with all of those hits coming in a five game stretch in the middle. Egads.

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Really considering dropping in a 14 team - 3 OF- points league.....Anyone else considering the same?

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17 minutes ago, j14nelson said:

Really considering dropping in a 14 team - 3 OF- points league.....Anyone else considering the same?

 

He said in a St. Louis Post-Dispatch article that he's using the All-Star break to visit a swing guru, "Sosa," who's worked with J.D. Martinez and Jose Martinez, to get him into the right position. I'm at least going to see if that pays any dividends.

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5 minutes ago, j14nelson said:

Really considering dropping in a 14 team - 3 OF- points league.....Anyone else considering the same?

I have him in a couple of 12 teamers and I'm sticking with him. He's sitting today and its probably a good thing he did have an ankle injury so why not take an extra day at this point. Anyways in a 14 teamer there's no way I'd drop him. I haven't looked at his profile in a while quite frankly because I was a bit frightened/depressed at how bad it might look but I think there's actually some hope here. 

 

For the last 30 days                 Last year

Swg K  9.8%                         7.6%

K% 30.8%                             22.1%

BB% 10.1%                          13.4%

o-swing 25.3%                    19.0%

z-con 86.5%                         86.1%

hard Con 50.9%                   35.5%

BABIP .182                         .368 

 

So the plate discipline and BB rate is a down a bit from last year but its far from a disaster really. The K rate seems a little high with only a 9.8% swg K rate. Fortunately he's still making a lot of hard Contact which is good to see and I think the telling thing is the BABIP for the past month is really, really low at .182 especially compared to what it was last year. 

12 minutes ago, Caelum said:

 

He said in a St. Louis Post-Dispatch article that he's using the All-Star break to visit a swing guru, "Sosa," who's worked with J.D. Martinez and Jose Martinez, to get him into the right position. I'm at least going to see if that pays any dividends.

Hopefully its the same guy that helped his teammate Carp turn into a world beater. That'd be nice! 

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48 minutes ago, Heisenberg90 said:

Homer in his first AB!!!! Hopefully he fixed his issues during the break.

yea

 

hoping for a big 2nd half

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Went 2/2 coming in off the bench for Bader in the last game before the break. Easy to overstate two hits but I feel like the mental game is such a key component of baseball and maybe even more for him. Feel like those two hits could be the most important he has this year as going into the break with a positive taste in your mouth then strong time away and coming back hitting could be big.

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3 minutes ago, mudrummer said:

Went 2/2 coming in off the bench for Bader in the last game before the break. Easy to overstate two hits but I feel like the mental game is such a key component of baseball and maybe even more for him. Feel like those two hits could be the most important he has this year as going into the break with a positive taste in your mouth then strong time away and coming back hitting could be big.

 

In between, he had said he was going to use the all-star break to see a swing guru named "Sosa," presumably not Sammy, who helped J.D. Martinez and Jose Martinez. Then he homers in his first at-bat. Whatever Sosa did for him, I'm asking no questions.

 

Seriously though, he's admittedly had trouble catching up to fastballs with his swing out of whack, so Kyle Hendricks maybe wasn't the best barometer tonight. But the confidence of going 4-for-5 over two games doesn't hurt.

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

yea

 

hoping for a big 2nd half

Yes!

That would be Phamtastic. :ph34r:

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Looks like he adjusted his swing.  What we need him to do is sit in a basement and watch continuous loops of Griffey’s swing 

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Anyone watch the game actually notice a difference in his swing rather than just what we've read about ?

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Watching the game on ESPN last night one of the play-by-play ladies talked to Pham before the game and said he adjusted his mechanics something he didn't even realize he was doing and that he "was gonna hit 3 HR tonight" well he came out first at bat and crushed one. That was great to see I think I will be holding.

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7 hours ago, tonywow said:

Anyone watch the game actually notice a difference in his swing rather than just what we've read about ?

 

Yes I watched the game and his HR and you can see a big difference (at least on that swing). The Athletic piece Eno did on Pham and his bat wrap was excellent. The sum of it was Pham believes he was wrapping his bat too much on his swing this season. By doing so he's boosted his exit velo, but reduced the contact ability.

 

“More wrap means that it takes longer to get to the zone,” he pointed out, “so even if my plate discipline is about the same, it means I have to decide earlier.”

 

Pham last night seemed to have his hands lower and his bat more relaxed with less wrap. https://streamable.com/7m32h 

 

Here is him a month ago: https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/07/10135928/late18.mp4?_=2 

 

 

 

 

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