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Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

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22 minutes ago, Baseball Batman said:

The production doesn't match the hype. There are a few guys in this thread who cannot accept that fact. I drafted him and am still holding him in all my leagues, so I'm not just some hater. But with disappointment I acknowledge that getting him at around the 200-mark in the draft was not the boon I thought it was. Because that's basically the type of production you're getting from Edwin Magnifico. Doesn't mean he sucks, just means he is merely a fringe roster-worthy player in standard leagues without a corner infielder.

 

This is basically how I feel.  It's surprising that the Cardinals are still batting him 3rd.   If that ever stops I'm not sure he's rosterable in standard leagues.

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So comparing from last year, his ground balls are up, fly balls are down, and he's popping up more. Obviously not a good trend. 

However, his BABIP is down 40 points from last year and he's still hitting the ball hard when he makes contact. His .429 xwOBA is still a pretty elite number thus far and he has also decreased his K% from 19.5 to 11.5. 

The underlying metrics that made me excited to own him have held steady so far this year. So while his production has been around where you drafted him, I feel there's still reasons to believe in better times. Wouldn't blame anyone for moving on but I'm not cutting bait on May 16th. It's only been around half the PA of Martinez's 2017. One hot streak could change the numbers quite a bit. 

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While I don't get the love affair with this guy, there is nothing better sitting on my wire.  I guess I'll hope he bounces back while riding the pine.

 

Until I get in a bind and need to pick up pitching.

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7 hours ago, DannyMcPot said:

So comparing from last year, his ground balls are up, fly balls are down, and he's popping up more. Obviously not a good trend. 

 

The only thing that worries me is that seemed to be one of the biggest reasons attributed to his mini breakout last year no?  I'm still holding, he's still a very good hitter and plenty of other metrics like you pointed out show that hasn't changed. But that doesn't give me warm and fuzzy feeling. 

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3 hours ago, DemOrioles said:

While I don't get the love affair with this guy, there is nothing better sitting on my wire.

 

1 hour ago, Baur10 said:

The only thing that worries me is that seemed to be one of the biggest reasons attributed to his mini breakout last year no?  I'm still holding, he's still a very good hitter and plenty of other metrics like you pointed out show that hasn't changed. But that doesn't give me warm and fuzzy feeling. 

The reason myself and others are high on this guy is that he is simply a good hitter. The trend for his mini-breakout last year was a reduction in his GB% and an increase in FB%. Couple this with how hard he hits the ball and his enormous 6'6 frame, it's easy for me to dream on a potentially high power/avg player. So far this year, however, his batted balls have reverted slightly backward towards more ground balls. I think it's still early enough for a correction though. If he stays the course he's currently on he is probably around a .290/20 guy. Nothing special but not bad for a guy drafted around 200. If he figures out a way to elevate the ball more, the sky is the limit. 

He is making more contact this year, up to 85.8% from 80.6%. He's also swinging at less pitches outside the zone yet making more contact with outside the zone pitches lol which probably explains his IFFB increase. His SwStr% has also decreased. So some positive trends plate discipline wise. Take these with a grain of salt though as it's still very early. And I honestly don't think there are many guys who could potentially explode like Magnifico just sitting on the wire. 

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He's Eric Hosmer, with upside for more,  that you got around pick 200. If you can't make that have value then you play in a small league.  

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3 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

He's Eric Hosmer, with upside for more,  that you got around pick 200. If you can't make that have value then you play in a small league.  

 

Even in really small daily leagues that don't cap games played, he doesn't get you negative numbers of any kind (i.e., bolsters your AVG) and is eligible at 1B, CI, and OF so he is an easy plug and play over some other guys who have more power but also come with more limited positional flexibility and AVG downside.  Still useful in most formats but I would like to see him bring that launch angle back up a little.

Edited by AHF

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4 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

He's Eric Hosmer, with upside for more

 

Er, Hosmer's 1B12 on the player rater, Martinez is 1B24. with a similar number of PAs.  I like Martinez's upside but the appeal of Hosmer is the high floor and a reasonable but not crazy ceiling, and Martinez hasn't shown anything like Hosmer's floor.

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2-2 with a double,  rbi single, and 2 R so far this game. Walked once as well. His double was a laser off the wall. 

Edited by Helms

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16 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Er, Hosmer's 1B12 on the player rater, Martinez is 1B24. with a similar number of PAs.  I like Martinez's upside but the appeal of Hosmer is the high floor and a reasonable but not crazy ceiling, and Martinez hasn't shown anything like Hosmer's floor.

Big guy,  1b, hits hard but too many gb. They're extremely similar profiles.  

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1 minute ago, Helms said:

2-2 with a double,  rbi single, and 1 R so far this game. Walked once as well. His double was a laser off the wall. 

 

get that dang launch angle up bruh

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2 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

Big guy,  1b, hits hard but too many gb. They're extremely similar profiles.  

 

Fair enough.  My assumption on the forums is that when people comp players without any other qualifiers, they're talking about them in a fantasy context, generally 5x5 roto.  Especially when the next line is about draft day value.  Not many leagues that count height, weight, or GB% as categories.  :)

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Fair enough.  My assumption on the forums is that when people comp players without any other qualifiers, they're talking about them in a fantasy context, generally 5x5 roto.  Especially when the next line is about draft day value.  Not many leagues that count height, weight, or GB% as categories.  :)

I usually don't go to the rater this early I  a season.  A few stats either way is a huge jump

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36 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Er, Hosmer's 1B12 on the player rater, Martinez is 1B24. with a similar number of PAs.  I like Martinez's upside but the appeal of Hosmer is the high floor and a reasonable but not crazy ceiling, and Martinez hasn't shown anything like Hosmer's floor.

 

Hosmer has a total of 2 more rbi/runs before today 

 

He has 2 more home runs 

 

Jose martinez has 20+ points in batting average on him 

 

Seems pretty  close. Biggest difference is the 3-0 steals, which surely counts in 5x5, but hitting wise seem pretty equal so far minus the steals. 2 of those steals were fairly recent I believe.  

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Yeah, those are fair points, but the argument was about draft day value, and people pay for track record / floor in drafts.  If the original statement had read "He's basically been Eric Hosmer so far" I'd understand, but "he's Eric Hosmer" carries a different connotation that ignores *why* Hosmer was taken so much earlier.  That's all I was responding to.

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Just now, tonycpsu said:

Yeah, those are fair points, but the argument was about draft day value, and people pay for track record / floor in drafts.  If the original statement had read "He's basically been Eric Hosmer so far" I'd understand, but "he's Hosmer" carries a different connotation that ignores *why* Hosmer was taken so much earlier.  That's all I was responding to.

I still stand by it.  The lack of track record is why he was cheaper.  But i can honestly say pre draft i basically had him ranked as Hosmer, and i think a lot of us did.  

And given the fact he hasn't really gone off yet,  and is still basically Hosmer w/o steals,  I'd say his floor is higher than you're giving credit to.  

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5 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

And given the fact he hasn't really gone off yet,  and is still basically Hosmer w/o steals,  I'd say his floor is higher than you're giving credit to.

 

This is a textbook example of begging the question.  We have a rough idea of what he can be as a hitter, and it looks good, but we have much less of an idea what he will be.  Saying "he hasn't really gone off yet" is an upside argument, by definition, but you're projecting that upside into his floor.  That's fine -- you believe in the guy.  But we haven't seen a long enough enough track record to bake his periodic success into his floor the way we can with an established commodity like Hosmer.  I've got no problem with planting your flag on a guy you believe in, and as an owner, I'm certainly hoping you'e right.  I just need to see the sustained success before I'm willing to put him in the top 10-12 1B conversation.

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As far as I'm concerned, as long as he puts up elite exit velo the floor is there.  The upside part is of he gets it off the ground more.  You just can't do much worse than the line he has now if you hit this hard,  this consistently

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5 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

He's Eric Hosmer, with upside for more,  that you got around pick 200. If you can't make that have value then you play in a small league.  

While that may be true...I've also never been excited to own even year Eric Hosmer either.. 

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2 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Er, Hosmer's 1B12 on the player rater, Martinez is 1B24. with a similar number of PAs.  I like Martinez's upside but the appeal of Hosmer is the high floor and a reasonable but not crazy ceiling, and Martinez hasn't shown anything like Hosmer's floor.

 

Regardless of where they're ranked...

 

.270, 20, 6, 16, 3

.286, 12, 4, 22, 0

 

I mean, I'd take the extra couple HRs and the few steals.  Other than that, you're trading some Rs for RBIs.  Those lines look pretty similar in value to me.

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He's definitely a .290+ caliber hitter. If he can somehow get to 20+ home runs, he's a valuable piece in all formats. His launch angle right now is sitting at 5.5 degrees though, down from 10.6 degrees last year. Needs to get that up if he's going to hit 20+.

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Basically doubled his ranking in my league in three days. He has absolutely brolic games when he's hot. If something clicks in this guy, look tf out because... 

 

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