brockpapersizer

Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, DannyMcPot said:

"But why do we care about defense in fantasy??" 

?‍♂️?

True, but if he's THAT bad in the field...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DannyMcPot said:

"But why do we care about defense in fantasy??" 

?‍♂️?

Because if it's costing him at bats, ac reason to downgrade his Fantasy value.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Stubudd said:

 

Eye reports were this guy was absolutely abysmal, not just bad. The worst. 

 

He'd have to be- nobody wants to take a bat like that out of the lineup. I've not seen him but it must be he routinely misses scoops a major leaguer makes every time, makes mental mistakes, etc- the kind of stuff that may not show up in some of those metrics. That's all I can figure.

 

He made 7 errors in 594 chances. I expected a lot more.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijo08.shtml#all_standard_fielding
So I looked them up to see how bad he is
1. mar.29 - terrible throw to 2nd (that was a reverse Chuck Knoblauch)
2. apr.27 - bad fielding (he is really not that athletic for sure)
3. apr.28 - no condensed video of that (Ground Ball to 2B-1B), but I can't imagine that the ball hit his chest, which is the way it should be
4. may 4 - no condensed video of that
5. may 8 - hard hit line drive right at him (should catch it but hard to fault him as many other MLB players could not make that catch)
6. may 12 - bad throw 1b to 3b (not a play that happens everyday)
7. may 28 - bad fielding (no excuse, but only the 2nd such error)

And that is all.
He is really not an athletic fielder, as I can tell by wathing his errors, but made only 2 bad fielding errors on groundballs, and it's not that bad to have only two in this many chances.
Two bad throws, which happens to many players.
Two bad catches, but there is no video on one of them and the other was a hard hit liner right at him.
I"ve seen worse. Just watch Schwarber.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not all bad fielding plays are errors though. He doesn't get to a ball that 90% of the 1st baseman gets and it goes for a hit.  Stretches poorly on a throw from 2nd on a DP. It isn't an error as you can't assume a DP. Out of position on a cutoff play and a runner gets an extra base may not be called an error but the other team ends up scoring an added run with it.

 

Have only watched a few Cardinal games and the team defense really isn't that good but even still he stood out. The time to work on this is before games, off days, and Spring training not during the games when it actually matters for the poster above who says he won't get better sitting on the bench.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

7 errors out of 594 chances is a pretty awful fielding percentage for a first baseman, putting him third worst among 1B with more than 200 innings at the position.  And as much as I understand not wanting to put too much stock in the eye test, he looks awful out there.

 

Seems like a good DH to me. Too bad he's in the NL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even with the awful D i still don't think this defense first stuff lasts long.  How many games of bad O will they accept before the pendulum swings back on the narrative?  Runs runs games,  I'm holding for awhile

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

Even with the awful D i still don't think this defense first stuff lasts long.  How many games of bad O will they accept before the pendulum swings back on the narrative?  Runs runs games,  I'm holding for awhile

Possible. But if you run w/no bench bats (like me) he's a drop. Sad, but true. In a weekly league he's of minimum value if he isn't playing 5x a week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Low and Away said:

Not all bad fielding plays are errors though.

 

Sure. But those are included in DEF on Fangraps right. As I mentioned above some of the best players are near the top of this list with pretty bad defense.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,54,199,58&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,a
Would anyone sit Bryce Harper, Khris Davis, Charlie Blackmon, Jose Abreu etc... I wouldn't think so.
 

6 hours ago, Low and Away said:

He doesn't get to a ball that 90% of the 1st baseman gets and it goes for a hit. 

 

You just made up that number?
 

6 hours ago, Low and Away said:

Stretches poorly on a throw from 2nd on a DP.

 

From what I've seen, hard to imagine that he is able to stretch at all :D
But in my opinion, that is a plus for a first baseman, not a requirement.
 

7 hours ago, Low and Away said:

The time to work on this is before games, off days, and Spring training not during the games when it actually matters for the poster above who says he won't get better sitting on the bench.


To be honest, I don't think that he can ever get better no matter what he does. He is a stiff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

7 errors out of 594 chances is a pretty awful fielding percentage for a first baseman, putting him third worst among 1B with more than 200 innings at the position

 

Sometimes looking at rate stats are misleading.
But say if he would have 4 errors out 594 chances, than he could play? Because that would be an ok Fielding%.
And actually it is only 3 plays in half a season.
3
And that is the reason you would sit your 2nd best bat on your team?
Well he has 3 throwing errors so maybe he should eliminate throwing. Especially to 3rd base, which isn't easy for an average 1st baseman. I wonder how many made that throw this season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, JCD said:

But say if he would have 4 errors out 594 chances, than he could play? Because that would be an ok Fielding%.

 

  1. Right, but he has 7.  If things were different, they'd be different.  200 innings is enough of a sample to filter out guys who might just have had a run of easier fielding plays that's somehow masking their true talent.  Look at the names near him on that board -- old man Pujols, converted backup catcher John Hicks...  The numbers are what they are.  Jo Mart is a butcher out there, by the metrics, by the eye test, and apparently by the evaluation of his old crappy manager and his new not-yet-deemed-to-be-crappy one.
  2.  
21 minutes ago, JCD said:

And that is the reason you would sit your 2nd best bat on your team?

 

Nah, I never said that.  I think he's just barely passable enough to play for as long as his bat is as red hot as it's been, and the numbers confirm this, with his offensive and defensive runs almost exactly canceling each other out at +11 and -11.2 respectively.  I wouldn't sit him, but if you believe the WAR equations remotely reflect reality, then the defense really is eating most of the value he provides with his bat, and the move is justified. 

 

As an owner I don't like it, but we yell at managers all the time for not taking metrics seriously enough, and this is a case where the metrics say he's hurting the team almost as much as he's helping it.  Can't blame the team for at least trying to send a message to get the kid to take the defensive aspect of his game more seriously.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DonnieAvery17 said:

Not in the lineup again. Time to cut bait soon?

 

That's 3 games in a row on the bench now. I don't think I can hold any longer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

That's 3 games in a row on the bench now. I don't think I can hold any longer.

Unless, he goes to the AL in a trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There just aren't many (any?) open DH positions around the AL nowadays.  So many teams are using the DH to cycle in everyday players to give them a day off in the field, and the teams that aren't doing that already have the DH position covered or aren't contending and thus won't be willing to pay for a guy who doesn't have a long track record or a truly irreplaceable skill.

 

I'm still holding in a deeper league, but if your league context means you need him to become an everyday player to be worth rostering, I think you have to make him your next drop.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, billofwa said:

Unless, he goes to the AL in a trade.

 

Seems like gluing him to the pine is the wrong way to go about drumming up trade interest. But a trade to the AL would be amazing. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

Seems like gluing him to the pine is the wrong way to go about drumming up trade interest. But a trade to the AL would be amazing. 

Well, his offensive numbers are at a pretty good trade value right now. Interested teams won't care that he is benched.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, tonycpsu said:
  1. Right, but he has 7

 

Point was, that 3 is not such a huge number, that it could not happen.

 

14 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

I think he's just barely passable enough to play for as long as his bat is as red hot as it's been, and the numbers confirm this, with his offensive and defensive runs almost exactly canceling each other out at +11 and -11.2 respectively. 


Sure.
Still fail to see how is his 11 - 11.2 = - 0,2 is worse than Gyorko's 1,2 - 3,7 = - 2,5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, JCD said:

 

Sometimes looking at rate stats are misleading.
But say if he would have 4 errors out 594 chances, than he could play? Because that would be an ok Fielding%.
And actually it is only 3 plays in half a season.
3
And that is the reason you would sit your 2nd best bat on your team?
Well he has 3 throwing errors so maybe he should eliminate throwing. Especially to 3rd base, which isn't easy for an average 1st baseman. I wonder how many made that throw this season.

 

Man, errors don't really tell you very much about how good somebody is at defense anyway.

 

You could put my 40 year old bad knees that haven't been on a field in 20 years at first base for the Cards right now, and if by some miracle I went the rest of the year without making a single error, I guarantee you I would STILL be easily the worst defender of all time. I'd be missing scoops anybody could make, I'd almost never make a great play on a tough scoop, I'd be messing up plays on bunts, misplaying tricky foul balls, throwing to the wrong base, be in the wrong place on cutoffs sometimes, make poor throws on the front of DPs, slow to cover my base on tricky plays, on and on. It has to be stuff like that is what has these guys here saying this guy might be the worst defender EVER.

 

For guys that watch him every day to be saying he might be the worst ever, it must be some version of all of the above- just kinda bad at everything, almost all the time. The organization wants to win, and apparently his great bat can't outweigh the innings his poor defense is routinely extending for them. That or it's some kind of personal thing we don't know about in addition to the poor defense. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.850 OPS, .300 hitter with great K:BB. And can’t find a spot.  That shows how truly atrocious his D is because usually guys who have the bat talent they force their way in.  His glove is just too hideous.  Bad situation for us.  Will probably just keep on my bench until trade deadline and plug in the 2-3 days he sees a week and hope he’s dealt.  If he’s not dealt then probably not rosterable in most sized leagues.  New manager putting his finger print on early with back to back DNPs that should tell you something.  

Edited by Cmilne23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Stubudd said:

You could put my 40 year old bad knees that haven't been on a field in 20 years at first base for the Cards right now, and if by some miracle I went the rest of the year without making a single error, I guarantee you I would STILL be easily the worst defender of all time. I'd be missing scoops anybody could make, I'd almost never make a great play on a tough scoop, I'd be messing up plays on bunts, misplaying tricky foul balls, throwing to the wrong base, be in the wrong place on cutoffs sometimes, make poor throws on the front of DPs, slow to cover my base on tricky plays, on and on.

 

We're talking about errors that Martinez affirmatively did make, not a hypothetical where someone who doesn't belong on the field somehow magically doesn't ever get credited with an error in a full season of play.  You can't discount the presence of errors by indicating that their absence in such a hypothetical wouldn't be a complete measure of your defense.  That's not how the logic works, and even if it were, the more advanced defensive metrics also have JoMart among the worst in the league.  Just because fielding percentage doesn't measure a player's total defensive contribution doesn't mean it's not useful as a metric.

 

13 minutes ago, Stubudd said:

It has to be stuff like that is what has these guys here saying this guy might be the worst defender EVER.

 

As I said, it's all of the above.  The fielding percentage says he's a bad defender.  The advanced stats say he's a bad defender.  The eye test says he's a bad defender.  His managers say he's a bad defender with how they're using him.  None of these data points are by themselves enough, but each of them adds to the case.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, JCD said:

 

Sometimes looking at rate stats are misleading.
But say if he would have 4 errors out 594 chances, than he could play? Because that would be an ok Fielding%.
And actually it is only 3 plays in half a season.
3
And that is the reason you would sit your 2nd best bat on your team?
Well he has 3 throwing errors so maybe he should eliminate throwing. Especially to 3rd base, which isn't easy for an average 1st baseman. I wonder how many made that throw this season.

 

Errors isn't a great stat on it's own, but 7 errors in 594 chances is bad for a 1B. For context, he's tied with Santana and Abreu for the most errors among 1B and has the worst fielding percentage among qualified 1B. But it goes beyond that. How many times have you seen a guy make a bad play that wasn't recorded as an error? That's what happens with Jose. A lot. His defensive metrics across the board are horrid, and in the Cardinals games I have seen, it always looks like Jose doesn't know what he's doing defensively. He honestly might be as bad at first as Simba is great at short.

 

 

Edited by phillyphan21
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

As I said, it's all of the above.  The fielding percentage says he's a bad defender.  The advanced stats say he's a bad defender.  The eye test says he's a bad defender.  His managers say he's a bad defender with how they're using him.  None of these data points are by themselves enough, but each of them adds to the case.

 

I don't think that anybody would mistake his stiff movements to athleticism who seen him play. Or warm up.
The debate is how much his bat is worth.
For example I just looked up the Indians, and Encarnacion is a butcher too. -9,3 Defense, with not a really good offense so far.
And the Phillies put Hoskins to LF where he is a butcher, compared to 1b, just to play Santana at 1b.
They lose a lot of defense.
So the question is, what is good hitting really worth?
Appereantly not much in St. Louis, but a lot more elsewhere.

Edited by JCD

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, JCD said:

And the Phillies put Hoskins to LF where he is a butcher, compared to 1b, just to play Santana at 1b.
They lose a lot of defense.
So the question is, what is good hitting really worth?
Appereantly not much in St. Louis, but a lot more elsewhere.

 

Yeah, of course managers have to account for all aspects of a player's production, but this started with you downplaying how bad he is by saying you expected more than 7 errors.  He's not just bad -- he's terrible by any measure, and it absolutely detracts from his value.

 

I've already said I'd still play him if it were up to me.  Part of that is because the Cards' other options aren't all that inspiring offensively -- there's a big difference between swapping Martinez in for Gyorko and swapping Santana in for Altherr/Williams.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...