brockpapersizer

Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

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The struggle here is whether to cut bait or wait this out to see if he gets traded or regains his spot in the lineup.  This is easier in many deeper leagues (where he is so far above WW options that it is almost a no-brainer to hold for a bit) but for shallow mixed it is a really tough call.

Edited by AHF

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If you have a bench spot and you're in a 12+ team league, he's a hold. Anything shallower I'd just cut bait.

 

I'm in a relatively deep 15-teamer so I'll probably hold for a couple of weeks but barring an injury or the team going through a dreadful offensive skid without him in there, I think we've seen the end of everyday ABs for him in 2018.


It was a fun ride. 

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WAR is designed specifically for these types of questions .. but WAR has several components to it and each organization has their own way of quantifying it.

 

Between baserunning and hitting Martinez's offense is +11 runs above replacement

Between fielding and his already low defensive matrix position (1st base) his defense is -11.2 runs below replacement

When you add the adjustment for his league/ballpark +0.7 and account for his 355 above replacement player plate appearances (+10.5) it all comes out to a total of +10.1 runs.

 

10 runs = 1 win above replacement

 

All added up he has a 1.1 WAR (wins above replacement) half way through the season .. 1 WAR is worth about ~$8.5M in fair market value.

 

with all that being said .. jose martinez was on his way to providing 2 WAR which is worth about $17M to an organization in fair market value. 

 

This is fangraphs WAR though, and like i said in the earlier part of the post, I'm sure the Cardinals have their own inhouse performance metrics that might be showing his defense to be even worse than fangraphs.

 

How does all of this relate back to fantasy: 

 

Despite the terrible defense, the best publicly-available system we have is showing that Martinez is a starting major league 1st basemen. I'd hold and let this situation play out for a bit.

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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Tough to keep him now, the new manager seems to value defense over offense, unless The Gyrk goes in the tank with the bat we have seen the last of JM unless he gets traded or an injury

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Gyroko is hitting .295 with a .961 OPS in July. Having more Walks than Strikeouts. There is real no benift to having Jose Martinez fielding a position until he cools off. Which he probably does, just not sure how it plays out.

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There is zero excuse for Mozeliak if he can’t find a trade partner in the AL. 

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33 minutes ago, ryno1980 said:

There is zero excuse for Mozeliak if he can’t find a trade partner in the AL. 

 

Who would trade for this guy though?  Right now contenders would be the only teams in the AL interested in him for the rest of the year.  They are all good going forward this season without him. 

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Well he is an easy hold for ten litttle days. If no trade or no apparent way back into playing time you can drop then, but give it the ten days to play out 

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46 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Who would trade for this guy though?  Right now contenders would be the only teams in the AL interested in him for the rest of the year.  They are all good going forward this season without him. 

Not really. He also fits the bill for teams who think they can put something together in 2019. The leverage of trading for him now instead of the off-season would probably be: Cardinals taking a more expensive player that also happens to fit a need. So the re-builder is saving money in the present and setting themselves up for next year. 

 

He isn't arbitration eligible until 2020.  While he isn't super young. He still fits timeline for teams who are getting closer to building up towards competitiveness, but not this year.

Edited by Slatykamora

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He's under team control for 4 more seasons.  He should have plenty of appeal for AL teams.

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At this point, they might as well trade him if the interim manager isn't going to play him at all.  He serves little purpose on the team, as having a player with his ability being used as strictly a pinch hitter is a waste.  You can only do so much with 1 AB a few times a week.  There would probably be several AL teams that would love to trade for him.

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Well an equally atrocious fielder in Jedd Gyorko let flood gates open in that inning.  So he should be in tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

Jedd Gyorko error changed the course of the game today.

 

Ironic. 

Perfect followup on my trade suggestion for Moustakes 

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2 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Perfect followup on my trade suggestion for Moustakes 

Would be smart for Royals.  Just because you aren’t “contending” doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take cost controlled assets back.  Royals need a lot of things.  Martinez would be a good fit there.  Wouldn’t help fantasy value.  But St Louis lineup he’s been part of all year is a pretty mediocre talent group as well.

Edited by Cmilne23
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Martinez back in KC would be a great fit for him and the organization. They get a #3 hitter to DH for them under control. Allows them to move Dozier to 3B and keep Duda at 1B.

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yes because every rebuilding team wants a soon to be 30 poor fielding 1st baseman. It is funny on the telecast they keep hammering away on how poor the Cardinal defense really is.

 

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14 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

yes because every rebuilding team wants a soon to be 30 poor fielding 1st baseman. It is funny on the telecast they keep hammering away on how poor the Cardinal defense really is.

 

Because Martinez would play 1B in the AL? ??‍♂️

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Just now, Cmilne23 said:

Because Martinez would play 1B in the AL? ??‍♂️

You don't trade what is your best player for a 30year old DH on a team that is rather a long way from contending.

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18 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

You don't trade what is your best player for a 30year old DH on a team that is rather a long way from contending.

Moustakes is a free agent that KC is about to lose. He's not going to command high end prospects. Martinez under team control can give them some punch at DH while the youth comes along is not a bad deal. 

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Random thought that popped into my head. Jose Martinez is the tall lanky kid from high school that never quite grew into his body.  

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16 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Moustakes is a free agent that KC is about to lose. He's not going to command high end prospects. Martinez under team control can give them some punch at DH while the youth comes along is not a bad deal. 

Maybe but I just feel that even for a rental K.C. should be able to do better.

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5 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Maybe but I just feel that even for a rental K.C. should be able to do better.

No chance, they will be lucky to get one or two decent prospects.  Every team had a chance to sign him last year when he was a free agent and none did.  He had to settle for a one year deal from the Royals.  They will be lucky to get a couple prospects for him.

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21 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Moustakes is a free agent that KC is about to lose. He's not going to command high end prospects. Martinez under team control can give them some punch at DH while the youth comes along is not a bad deal. 

As a Royals fan this type of deal would make me cringe but it’s just the type of trade Dayton Moore might do. KC is going to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball  for at least the next 3 years and most likely longer. Adding a 30 year old DH now would make no sense to just about any other GM in this spot, but they’ve been making these strange moves a lot recently. Sadly, whoever they deal Moose for likely won’t move the needle much since every other team knows they’re more concerned with shedding his salary for the rest of the year and making the Glass family a couple million dollars richer.

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