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Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Come on Tony, not every DH needs to be a Hall of Famer or perennial All Star/HR king contender. 

 

No, they don't.  What they have to be is be better than the sum total of the production of the regulars that would be cycled into the DH spot for days off in the field, plus whatever the flexibility of an extra bench player that can add value on defense is worth.  On a bad AL team (Royals, Tigers, whatever) you obviously don't have to be very good to be better than the regulars, but the amount you have to be better than them has to be offset by the loss of a bench player, keeping in mind many teams are already rolling with just 4 bench bats before the full-time DH, one of whom is a backup catcher.

 

There's an argument to be made that Martinez's production so far makes him worth it, but the cast of characters you named shows how fungible these guys are.  There are only 15 jobs and a lot of guys who can post an .800-ish OPS but can't do anything in the field.  Also, keep in mind there's about a 5% penalty to wOBA for guys who transition to being a full-time DH.

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13 minutes ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

A 12 spot through 5 suggests otherwise.

 

 

How?
Cos the way I see it, it suggests that Lester had a really bad day and Carpenter had a great one, and non of these has anything to do with the Cards manager's decision playing Gyorko over Martinez.
Who is 0/2 w. 2 BB, with Cubs pitching handing out 7 BB in 3+ Innings. Even Flaherty the pitcher has a walk.
So how does this proves it to you that the new manager made the right decision sitting JM?

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Cards up 16-2 in the 7th and they still can't get this guy an at bat?

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1 minute ago, abachar said:

Not even subbed into a 16-2 game.  Trade HAS to be imminent no?

 

Or he ran over the new manager's dog or something.  That's just insulting.

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Find a way Cleveland.  Yonder can sit for awhile

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On 7/18/2018 at 11:37 PM, JCD said:

 

You just made up that number?
 

Fangraphs tracks this, no need to make up numbers.

 

At first base-

 

He's had 4 chances at "unikely" balls hit to him, plays made 10-40% of the time by other players and had made 0 of them.

 

He's had 6 chances at "even" balls which are made 40-60% of the time by other fielders. Hes made it to 1 of those balls, or 16.7%

 

 

He's had 7 chances at "likely" (60-90% league wide success) balls and made it 1. For a whopping 14.3%.

 

So saying he misses balls that are gotten to 90% of the time is actually pretty dang accurate. 

 

 

Edited by Bigfische
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27 minutes ago, Bigfische said:

Fangraphs tracks this, no need to make up numbers.

 

At first base-

 

He's had 4 chances at "unikely" balls hit to him, plays made 10-40% of the time by other players and had made 0 of them.

 

He's had 6 chances at "even" balls which are made 40-60% of the time by other fielders. Hes made it to 1 of those balls, or 16.7%

 

 

He's had 7 chances at "likely" (60-90% league wide success) balls and made it 1. For a whopping 14.3%.

 

So saying he misses balls that are gotten to 90% of the time is actually pretty dang accurate. 

 

 

He just can not range well and scoop balls due to 3 knee operations.  He is the first ever ballplayer to come back from a meniscis transplant operation in the right knee.  I'm not even sure if Cleveland or anyone can hide him in LF.  He's toast at 1B.

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If this guy can't get a start on a day where they have a double-header, that would be a crime.

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18 minutes ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

Not in the lineup for the first game    ?

Doubt we see him start without an injury or three or trade.

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3 hours ago, STLSU said:

He just can not range well and scoop balls due to 3 knee operations.  He is the first ever ballplayer to come back from a meniscis transplant operation in the right knee.


Good info.

Explaines why I saw that he is stiff, and couldn't see possible improvement.

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4 hours ago, Bigfische said:

Fangraphs tracks this, no need to make up numbers.

 

At first base-

He's had 4 chances at "unikely" balls hit to him, plays made 10-40% of the time by other players and had made 0 of them.

He's had 6 chances at "even" balls which are made 40-60% of the time by other fielders. Hes made it to 1 of those balls, or 16.7%

 

He's had 7 chances at "likely" (60-90% league wide success) balls and made it 1. For a whopping 14.3%.

So saying he misses balls that are gotten to 90% of the time is actually pretty dang accurate. 

 

 

 


There is a huge difference between 60% and 90%, and all those 7 can be 60-70%
So that 90% can be pretty dang inaccurate too. ;)
 

Anyway, I did some math.
Gyorko made 3 of 8 on 40-60% plus 6 of 10 on 60-90% plus 66 of 67 on 90-100%
That is 75 of 85
10 playes he did not make equals 10 singles.

Martinez 1 of 6 + 1 of 7 + 106 of 109
That is 108 of 122, equals 14 singles

Give Gyorko 37 more 90-100% chances, cos just assume that Gyorko had bad luck by having to handle that many low chance plays compared to total plays. (real reason probably, that he plays 3b)

So the difference is 4 singles.

Now let's see adjusted hitting.
Cards played 96 games (~60%)
Give these players offdays (10%)
Use data only when player started game
Extrapolate to 162 team games (these are the number we can work with so it is what it is, projecting could be off just as well)

Gyorko
68 Runs
77 RBI
139 hits
31 doubles
20 HRs
63 BB
293 Total bases on offense


Martinez
63 Runs
99 RBI
167 hits
32 doubles
23 HRs
59 BB
327 Total bases on offense



34 Total bases on Offense equals 4 bases on defense?
No.
According to new Cardinals manager, 4 is more than 34!

And still there is the case of those RBIs. (Sure that could be the result of situational hitting, or pure luck, or anything in between, but these are numbers we have.)

 

Edited by JCD

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On ‎5‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 1:52 PM, bank said:

The recent praise and salivating over his offensive prowess is great and all, but some attention needs to be turned to his absolutely terrible play at 1B. 

Before anyone comes at me with the "this is fantasy baseball, not real baseball" speech, I realize that. But eventually if Jose continues with his poor defensive play (and I mean there have been some REAL doozies), the club is going to have to consider some options and just how much they can tolerate in order to keep his bat in the lineup all of the time. If he doesn't make some progress or corrections, he may find himself with additional days of "rest." And that could in fact impact fantasy. 


It seems like just the other day that I said this. Only to have it poohpoohed by so many. 

Just a few examples because I'm feeling particularly nostalgic: 
 

On ‎5‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 2:38 PM, The Waker said:

 

They bat him 3rd in the lineup, i.e. they consider him an integral part of their hitting.   He's not going anywhere as long as he hits.

 

On ‎5‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 2:38 PM, Helms said:

 

There is absolutely no way they can not afford to have his bat in the lineup. Pham and JMart are literally the only two players hitting worth a damn in that entire lineup. Yes the defense has been atrocious but he’s not going to be getting any additional “rest days” anytime soon trust me.

 

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10 minutes ago, bank said:


It seems like just the other day that I said this. Only to have it poohpoohed by so many. 

Just a few examples because I'm feeling particularly nostalgic: 
 

 

 

 

to be fair, his hitting has been pretty awful for a while now.  That changes the analysis a good bit.

 

Now if you had said Jose Martinez isn't that great, his stats will drop off.  Then you'd have something to brag about

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Have to keep Wong in lineup, his .210/.670 too tough to bench.  And god forbid you’d bench Fowler and the .175/.570.  Gotta get Greg Garcia some hacks as well.  And since you care about defense so much might as well pencil Ozuna in daily with his .690 OPS and minimal defensive effort.  That article above pretty much nails it.  No matter what angle you take this is atrocious management of a player who’s been your most consistent player day in and day out all year long.  Lousy way to treat a guy who’s busted his a** to get to this point.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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11 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Hasta luego, Jose. 

What happened? Did he get traded?

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How hard was it for that manager to write Jose’s name into lineup?

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7 hours ago, JCD said:

 


There is a huge difference between 60% and 90%, and all those 7 can be 60-70%
So that 90% can be pretty dang inaccurate too. ;)
 

Anyway, I did some math.
Gyorko made 3 of 8 on 40-60% plus 6 of 10 on 60-90% plus 66 of 67 on 90-100%
That is 75 of 85
10 playes he did not make equals 10 singles.

Martinez 1 of 6 + 1 of 7 + 106 of 109
That is 108 of 122, equals 14 singles

Give Gyorko 37 more 90-100% chances, cos just assume that Gyorko had bad luck by having to handle that many low chance plays compared to total plays. (real reason probably, that he plays 3b)

So the difference is 4 singles.

Now let's see adjusted hitting.
Cards played 96 games (~60%)
Give these players offdays (10%)
Use data only when player started game
Extrapolate to 162 team games (these are the number we can work with so it is what it is, projecting could be off just as well)

Gyorko
68 Runs
77 RBI
139 hits
31 doubles
20 HRs
63 BB
293 Total bases on offense


Martinez
63 Runs
99 RBI
167 hits
32 doubles
23 HRs
59 BB
327 Total bases on offense



34 Total bases on Offense equals 4 bases on defense?
No.
According to new Cardinals manager, 4 is more than 34!

And still there is the case of those RBIs. (Sure that could be the result of situational hitting, or pure luck, or anything in between, but these are numbers we have.)

 

 

 

And you didn't even account for how many games the opposition has missed from him tripping /getting tangled with them at first base. 

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7 hours ago, bank said:


It seems like just the other day that I said this. Only to have it poohpoohed by so many. 

Just a few examples because I'm feeling particularly nostalgic: 
 

 

 

 

If you read my post you will see why I said that he wasn’t going to be taken out of the lineup at the time. Which he wasn’t. Bc he and Pham were the only 2 hitting at the time.

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