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Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

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29 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

 

And you didn't even account for how many games the opposition has missed from him tripping /getting tangled with them at first base. 

 Jose Martinez vs Matt Carpenter @ 1B  + Carpenter vs Gyroko @ 3B.  

 

Carpenter is a better 3B defender than Gyroko.  They are actually both downgrading the lineup and defense @3B with this plan for the sake of 1B defense.

 

I'm still partial to the idea this is more about keeping Carpenter(the actual best hitter on the team) healthy not playing 3B as much anymore. Though from a visual standpoint. Its probably pretty cringy to keep watching JMart's stiff actions at 1B everyday.

Edited by Slatykamora

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7 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Have to keep Wong in lineup, his .210/.670 too tough to bench.  And god forbid you’d bench Fowler and the .175/.570.  Gotta get Greg Garcia some hacks as well.  And since you care about defense so much might as well pencil Ozuna in daily with his .690 OPS and minimal defensive effort.  That article above pretty much nails it.  No matter what angle you take this is atrocious management of a player who’s been your most consistent player day in and day out all year long.  Lousy way to treat a guy who’s busted his a** to get to this point.  

 

Admittedly he's become a bit of a scapegoat for what has largely been a mediocre defense. That said, on a team of mediocre and bad defensive players, Martinez is the worst. Among players with at least 100 innings at a given position, Martinez has the worst Def at -9.8 at first, and honestly, I think that's generous. 

 

Keep in mind too that he's not really in direct competition for playing time with Wong and Ozuna and Garcia. Wong is probably the best fielder on the team. Ozuna has a massive contract; they aren't benching him any time soon. Garcia is a bench bat that plays three positions Martinez straight up can't play. His direct competition is Carpenter and Gyorko. Carpenter isn't a great glove himself, but is much better than Martinez and is a better bat. I'll admit it's curious that Gyorko is getting so much more playing time than Martinez. I'd rather Carp at third and Martinez at first than Gyroko at third and Carp at first. 

 

Listen, I get it's frustrating for his owners. I get that he arguably should still be starting. But his benching was always a possibility. His defense has remained atrocious, honestly some of the worst I've ever seen at the big league level. And his bat has slowed down a bit. .250/.308/.389 with three home runs last 30 days. Just like a great glove is enough to keep some guys in the lineup (see JBJ) a terrible glove is starting to become enough to keep a solid bat out.

Edited by phillyphan21
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5 minutes ago, phillyphan21 said:

. His defense has remained atrocious, honestly some of the worst I've ever seen at the big League level

 

Kind of made me wonder: what is the worst D you’ve seen at the big league level? Hanley in the outfield? The worst spell I saw i was Nick Hundley move to the outfield.  

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36 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Kind of made me wonder: what is the worst D you’ve seen at the big league level? Hanley in the outfield? The worst spell I saw i was Nick Hundley move to the outfield.  

Mike Morse in RF for me.  It was so bad watching him swan dive all over the OF.  Raul Ibanez in LF probably a close second.  

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8 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

Kind of made me wonder: what is the worst D you’ve seen at the big league level? Hanley in the outfield? The worst spell I saw i was Nick Hundley move to the outfield.  

A lot of them are guys playing out of their natural position. Hanley and Morse have been brought up. I love my Phillies but Hoskins isn't good in the outfield. Didn't like Schwarber when he first started out there though he's improved. Besides that Sano  seemed bad every time I watched him and there's a reason EE is now a DH. 

Edited by phillyphan21

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The fourth inning against the Cubs today was another example of why he sits so much. Ian Happ hit a ball to the first base line. A more agile first baseman would have had a chance at it. Instead, Martinez didn't really move and it was a double that drove in a run. Later that inning, Contreras hit a 2 out single to drive in Happ. 

 

He's a massive liability in the field. It's like someone planted a broomstick on the base and glued a glove to its side.

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I get defense is somewhat important but at some point doesn't a player that mashes trump a player that plays good defense and slashes .230/.300/.350?

 

Most managers seem to play the latter.  What do the numbers say about what a good defensive player needs to slash to be better than a masher?

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4 minutes ago, B&F said:

I get defense is somewhat important but at some point doesn't a player that mashes trump a player that plays good defense and slashes .230/.300/.350?

 

Most managers seem to play the latter.  What do the numbers say about what a good defensive player needs to slash to be better than a masher?

I agree you can't just ignore one for the other if you're a manager. But he directly led to 1 (maybe 2 if you want to take the what if game even further) runs being scored by the opposing team today. It's not guarantee that someone else would have made that play, but Martinez had absolutely no chance. You need to really, really, really mash if you're going to be costing your team that blatantly and regularly. 

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15 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

The fourth inning against the Cubs today was another example of why he sits so much. Ian Happ hit a ball to the first base line. A more agile first baseman would have had a chance at it. Instead, Martinez didn't really move and it was a double that drove in a run. Later that inning, Contreras hit a 2 out single to drive in Happ. 

 

He's a massive liability in the field. It's like someone planted a broomstick on the base and glued a glove to its side.

 

I would kill to see a photoshopped picture of Jose's head on a broom stick with a glove glued to it. 

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The other thing about defense, is I imagine if a guy is a hack eventually the pitchers start to grumble.  Maybe not openly complain, but a few extra runs on their ERA, extra pitchers they have to throw, getting taken out of games earlier.  It's more than just what the numbers say.

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Lack of PT leads to inconsistency which leads to poor ABs.  He's bordering drop city at this point.

Edited by borindia

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4 hours ago, B&F said:

I get defense is somewhat important but at some point doesn't a player that mashes trump a player that plays good defense and slashes .230/.300/.350?

 

Most managers seem to play the latter.  What do the numbers say about what a good defensive player needs to slash to be better than a masher?

 

There are a lot of guys in both leagues that don't field well and are still in the lineup every day. I don't know what the numbers say, but I'd say the worse you are in the field the better you have to be at the plate if you want to keep your playing time. Also works the other way around. Martinez is at the point where his fielding is so bad that he'd have to be All Star level to stay in the game. At least, that's what it seems the Cardinals think. And with each Cardinal game I see, the more I find myself agreeing with their management on this issue. He's a truly atrocious fielder.

 

Let me put it this way. Jose Martinez is having a worse season on the field than Chris Davis is having at the plate. He costs his team regularly, whether it's making stupid errors, or more often, missing plays that other 1B would at least have a shot at. Hell, half the time he doesn't even go for those plays. 

Edited by phillyphan21
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10 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

The fourth inning against the Cubs today was another example of why he sits so much. Ian Happ hit a ball to the first base line. A more agile first baseman would have had a chance at it. Instead, Martinez didn't really move and it was a double that drove in a run. Later that inning, Contreras hit a 2 out single to drive in Happ. 

 

He's a massive liability in the field. It's like someone planted a broomstick on the base and glued a glove to its side.

 

On MLB.tv games are free so finally I could watch a labaled bad defensive play with replays.
And I don't know what you smoking.
This play is one of those 0 to 1% chance plays, for any 1b. But somehow now it is a play that a more agile 1b can make?
This is crazy.
And he didn't really move?
Like what he does in this pic is somehow barely moving?
"It's like someone planted a broomstick on the base and glued a glove to its side"
Is that guy really seems to you that he is not moving?
This is ridiculous.

Full video (at 1.42.05) where everyone can see, that it was a difficult play, and he actually moved way much better than anyone expects him.
https://www.mlb.com/tv/g530902/v4c2edc03-86ed-459f-a3d4-b75cd6c42b77#game=530902,tfs=20180722_182000,game_state=live

JM(35).jpg

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His lack of playing time is extremely unfortunate, but I'm holding until the trade deadline passes. 

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That play looked like a large tree falling over after. He's a big guy who moved as much as he can. That wasn't a shot just past the bag and hugging the chalk. It was by no means a freebie he booted, but a more agile guy would have had a chance at it. Jose didn't stand a chance. The announcers started talking about his defensive limitations/liabilities right after that play finished as well. 

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Huge buy low opportunity but pretty big risk as well.  This guy is being dropped left and right due to the benching, but you have to assume he gets dealt to a DH position or a team that will stomach his defense.  If so, then he could be had for next to nothing and the return could be sizeable.

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On 7/18/2018 at 8:02 AM, JCD said:

 

Just put all the numbers prior to ASB in my player eval excel, and using Runs + RBIs + OPS he is the 46th best bat in the league (MLB).
(correcting for missing time due injury or other reason was not used for this evaluation)

A great many defensively challenged but very good hitters play all the time. According to Fangraphs numbers Hosmer, Bryace Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Khris Davis are worse than Jose Martinez. And Blackmon, Catellanos or even J.D. Martinez sucks at D just as much. They all play everyday.
This is idiotic.
You just don't sit your 2nd best hitter. (Matt Carpenter is 1st)

Well whatever. He shall sit for the next 2 weeks, 7 games vs. the Cubs.
Go Cubs Go! :D

 

Well, Khris Davis rarely plays in the field.  JD Martinez DHs the majority of the time.


And, there's a difference between being a sub par OF and a sub par 1B.  If Harper or Blackmon or Castellanos continued to be that bad, their teams could probably move them to 1B and they could be passable.  If you suck at 1B, there's really not much a team can do with you, other than DH.

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On 7/20/2018 at 12:55 AM, Cmilne23 said:

Upon further review I think the Cardinals scapegoating arguably their best bat is a move that dog**** teams make.  Hoskins, Hosmer and Harper all rate out as worse defenders than Martinez.  Those guys never sniff the bench.  Jose Abreu who has a similar body and has been a statue at first for years.  His defense sucks, but Kolton Wong’s .210 average sucks and Martinez offensive WAR rating is higher than Wong’s defensive WAR rating.  Cardinals whiffed badly here.  

 

Again, it's not really fair to compare Martinez to Harper or Hoskins.  Can you imagine what Martinez' dWAR would be as a full time RF or LF?

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On 7/20/2018 at 1:50 PM, STLSU said:

No reason to drop yet except maybe NL only.  He's going to be traded to the AL most likely in season.  Early candidates include Houston and Cleveland.

 

Where is he playing for either of those teams?

 

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On 7/21/2018 at 9:38 AM, JCD said:

 


There is a huge difference between 60% and 90%, and all those 7 can be 60-70%
So that 90% can be pretty dang inaccurate too. ;)
 

Anyway, I did some math.
Gyorko made 3 of 8 on 40-60% plus 6 of 10 on 60-90% plus 66 of 67 on 90-100%
That is 75 of 85
10 playes he did not make equals 10 singles.

Martinez 1 of 6 + 1 of 7 + 106 of 109
That is 108 of 122, equals 14 singles

Give Gyorko 37 more 90-100% chances, cos just assume that Gyorko had bad luck by having to handle that many low chance plays compared to total plays. (real reason probably, that he plays 3b)

So the difference is 4 singles.

Now let's see adjusted hitting.
Cards played 96 games (~60%)
Give these players offdays (10%)
Use data only when player started game
Extrapolate to 162 team games (these are the number we can work with so it is what it is, projecting could be off just as well)

Gyorko
68 Runs
77 RBI
139 hits
31 doubles
20 HRs
63 BB
293 Total bases on offense


Martinez
63 Runs
99 RBI
167 hits
32 doubles
23 HRs
59 BB
327 Total bases on offense



34 Total bases on Offense equals 4 bases on defense?
No.
According to new Cardinals manager, 4 is more than 34!

And still there is the case of those RBIs. (Sure that could be the result of situational hitting, or pure luck, or anything in between, but these are numbers we have.)

 

 

Or, it could be that Gyorko is a passably good defender and has an .409 OBP in July.

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On 7/21/2018 at 9:07 PM, Cmilne23 said:

Mike Morse in RF for me.  It was so bad watching him swan dive all over the OF.  Raul Ibanez in LF probably a close second.  

 

I was gonna say, Ibanez in LF late in his career was clown shoes bad.

 

Rickie Weeks in LF, albeit for a short time, was scary bad as well.

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The problem is, which teams need a DH most teams have 1 or 2 already, and why would a team in the AL trade for a 30 year old guy who can't field. I could see him being traded to a contender but none of those teams need one

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Gyorko at 2B, Carpenter at 3B, Martinez at 1B?  Would that be one of the worst defensive infields ever?

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1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

JD Martinez DHs the majority of the time.

 

Majority? Theres one way to put it.
But you could say that JD Martinez plays OF nearly half the time.
Still I give you points for effort :D
 

1 hour ago, 89Topps said:

And, there's a difference between being a sub par OF and a sub par 1B.

 

Sure there is. 1b is a defensive position where you hide your defensively most challenged player if necessary. So you know that the guy is not that good.
The OF not so much, where you expect your player to catch a routine flyball, and not make it an adventure.
Im sure a good manager would rather take the 1b who is subpar, than have an OF who gives him the heart attack every time the ball is hit to him.
The only question of course what sub par is, and what really bad is, where everyone has a different opinion.
Fangraphs can measure whatever they want, if they create a mean to compare players to each other, cos that way what is sub par and what is bad will change when players change.
My opinion is that only the expert eye can really tell, and Matheny thought Martinez can pass the eye test. Good enough for me.
I watched him making some errors, and this newest "broomstick effort", and I thought he is ok, and no reason to bench him.
 

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I think this is three starts in a row. Good for him.

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