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osb_tensor

DJ LeMahieu 2018 Outlook

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I owned LeMahieu in 2016 and he was fantastic.. an OBP north of .400 and an average good enough to win the NL batting crown, while throwing in 11HR and 11SB from your 2B/MI spot.

In 2017 he was less impressive, but still had a notable slash line of .310/.374/.409, but with only 8HR and 6 SB. The major issue regarding DJ in 2018 is that his contract with the rockies expired and now he's a FA. obviously he has a great talent for getting on base, but when looking at his home/road splits, there are some  concerns. 

  • Career home: .333/.392/.451
  • Career road: .270/.317/.351

DJ has played for the rockies since 2012, so almost all of his stats were created while playing for colorado. if he signs elsewhere in 2018, i'm afraid he could turn out to be supreme disappointment for anyone expecting a repeat of the numbers he's put up the last few seasons. i guess the hope is that he has advanced his skills in the last few seasons and his future stats will be greater than his career stats, which are dragged down by a few seasons of average-ness.

if he signs back with colorado i'm all on board, but if it's anywhere else, he's probably  a DND for me.

am i seeing things clearly or is there something i'm missing?

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1 hour ago, Light Tower Power said:

Yeah, he's not a FA until after the 2018 season.

well i feel silly now.. i went looking at fangraphs and it showed his contract ending in 2017. i never though about him still having arbitration time left.

 

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12 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

well i feel silly now.. i went looking at fangraphs and it showed his contract ending in 2017. i never though about him still having arbitration time left.

 

 

It happens to the best of us ;)

 

I do think he is a trade candidate though come next July (pure baseless speculation on my part). I don't think Ryan McMahon takes over for him going into Spring Training based on what some of the top scouting dudes on the internet said about McMahon's defense, but maybe come July if Brandon Rodgers is ready. Rodgers wasn't great in AA, so he probably would be served best by a full year in the upper minors, but who knows with top prospects as they can force a team's hand.

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McMahon is slated for 1B isn't he?  He was switched over to 1B last year in the minors since Arendo was blocking him at 3B.  And Rodgers was being switched over to 2B wasn't he last year as well?  I think LeMahieu probably stays the full year in Colorado unless Rodgers goes ballistic down in the hinterlands.  Rockies should be a contender again for a playoff slot and fielding strength up the middle is crucial to that.

Fantasy baseball wise I own him in one dynasty and don't think he will provide me with any trade value since everyone knows this is his last year in Colorado.  Heck I couldn't move him this past year.  He did contribute 95 runs last season and his batting average helped compensate for the Machado and Donaldson ones that went way down so he gave me that.  But I scarfed up Merrifield early on so LeMahieu's value vs him taking up a roster slot is a toss-up for me.  With no trade value at this point he may just be a drop.  In re-draft leagues he will give owners two categories in Runs and Avg.  But his base stealing tanked this last year and his "power" doesn't exist not even in Colorado in the new juiced ball era.

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14 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

McMahon is slated for 1B isn't he?  He was switched over to 1B last year in the minors since Arendo was blocking him at 3B.  And Rodgers was being switched over to 2B wasn't he last year as well?  I think LeMahieu probably stays the full year in Colorado unless Rodgers goes ballistic down in the hinterlands.  Rockies should be a contender again for a playoff slot and fielding strength up the middle is crucial to that.

 

Correct, 1B is McMahon's most likely position. Obviously blocked at 3B. This is his games started log from the minors in 2017:

3B:  25

2B:  35

1B:  56

 

I think the Rockies saw an opportunity for him to possibly take the 2B job so they gave him some exposure, but I don't think his D would be adequate based on what I've heard.

Edited by Light Tower Power
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DJ just won a gold glove at 2B he's not getting bumped by anyone as long as he stays in Colorado. 

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12 hours ago, zingzing said:

DJ just won a gold glove at 2B he's not getting bumped by anyone as long as he stays in Colorado. 

But he will be gone from Colorado after this season.   So why would Colorado just let him walk if they can trade him at the trade deadline and get something in return provided Rodgers is ready by then?

I mean i agree he is "golden" (haha) up the middle and if the Rockies have a wildcard in sight it is possible he plays out the year for them.  But there is still a good chance he could be gone as well if they can get a rental return on him too.  Guess a lot depends how their 2018 campaign goes.

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i owned him in 2016 and 2017

 

prob wont have  much stock in him in 2018 unless its a deep league and i get him for an MI position

 

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I loved him going into last year because I thought the power would improve, and he'd get 85+ runs and RBI 

he's just a super vanilla OBP and runs guy.  

on my stay-away-list, unless he slides drastically--- though I can see how he'd be helpful with certain lineup construction

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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He doesn't seem to be of much use in standard 5x5 leagues, but he's money in points leagues due to his number of hits and low K%. Because of that, I'll be targeting him. It does seem strange that someone 6'4" and 215 lbs can hit only 8 homers in 609 at-bats. 

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2 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

he's fun to platoon with his home games.

 

better get another backup 2b if you draft this guy

Well he hit .294 away, so it's not like he was bad. Actually 5 of his dingers were away. 3 of his 6 SB were on the road, and he had 41R and 29RBI. If you're drafting him you're not looking for speed or power, just a solid batting average with ~120 to 140 total R/RBI.

 

I have no idea why you would platoon a guy with great splits

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5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He doesn't seem to be of much use in standard 5x5 leagues, but he's money in points leagues due to his number of hits and low K%. Because of that, I'll be targeting him.

My main league has odd scoring cats (although not points-based) which has really propped him up.   He was ranked #6 in 2016 and in the low-30s last year in that league.   So I plan to target him again.....he's a huge value based on where he'll likely be ranked.

 

but, yeah, in 5x5 he's far from someone I'd be happy to roster.

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Can lock in close to 100 runs and a .300 average in 600ab.  The rest leaves a little to be desired, but he can help you stomach owning someone like Gallo.

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3 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Can lock in close to 100 runs and a .300 average in 600ab.  The rest leaves a little to be desired, but he can help you stomach owning someone like Gallo.

He is a good guy to plug in at MI if you have a power low average 2B like an Odor type, another great pairing is if you have he and Dozier, Dozier contributes in four categories, which the one wild card for him being batting average, DJL strength is in that cateogory and he is not a complete dud in the rest, but between the two of them, you have a really good combo for 2B/MI than "ham and egg" it pretty well...

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23 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Can lock in close to 100 runs and a .300 average in 600ab.  The rest leaves a little to be desired, but he can help you stomach owning someone like Gallo.

 

That indeed is his value in 5x5.  His batting average does indeed offset the big boppers with low average which is an important element in building a team that can win.

 

The one league I own him in (16 team dynasty h2h) I won in part because of him saving me some from the early batting avg slumps of Machado and Donaldson.  I picked up Merrifield early on too but I can't seem to get rid of LeMahieu as either back-up or play Merrifield in the OF.  That average is sneaky and makes him an "adder" in his way like a Betances is an "adder" to your starters.  It doesn't pop out at you daily but at the end of the week you realize you won that week in part because of this guy.

 

Having said that his value will decrease in the future no doubt after he leaves Colorado.  And his 2B-only eligibility doesn't give him the extra flex you'd like to see in a hitting "adder."  But if you play in a deep league this guy can definitely help your team.  Especially since I think 2B is becoming more and more a scarce position compared to SS or 3B these days.

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1 hour ago, GratefulPhan said:

just gotta stay healthy DJ...

Is he considered injury prone? He averaged about 150 games in the last 4 years.

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Ya good point there. Vibe on the boards is he’s a little injury proned. This will be my second year owning him. 

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18 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

2 home runs already

 

great potential for rankings if he gets to 15

 

He's a prime candidate to surprise with a 20+ HR season. Eaton is another one. These are super strong guys that hit the ball hard and just need a smidge more launch angle to go from barely double digit HRs to 20-25. DJ fell in every single draft of mine this year, and I was happy to snap him up in each one. 

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11 minutes ago, Chubbles said:

Has he changed his launch angle this year?

 

Don't know but it is his walk year so he knows he needs more power stats to help in free agency no doubt.

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