• Announcements

    • Patrick Bateman

      Check out the new Rotoworld Beta Site!   11/14/2018

      Rotoworld has been the industry leader in fantasy news and analysis for years, but it was time for a much-needed facelift!  While our around-the-clock, comprehensive coverage will remain the same, the new Rotoworld design will be sleeker, easier to navigate, more video-friendly and will finally be mobile-optimized.    That’s right, you can finally stop pinching the screens on your phones to read our content!  Right now we’re in the beta phase of our launch, and it’s still a work-in-progress, but we’d love for you to check out our soon-to-be new digs, and let us know what you think: https://beta.rotoworld.com.    And then please use the Contact Us button to give us feedback!  
osb_tensor

Robbie Ray 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

in 2017 ray dazzled with a K/9 of 12.11 and an ERA at 2.89. his FIP/xFIP stand at 3.72/3.49 so I don't expect a sub 3 ERA again this season. one item that's been mentioned before, and i do believe is of note is that he has one of the hardest contact rates of all pitchers in the league. filter by pitchers with at least 60IP, and ray ranks as #7 hardest hit pitcher with a 40.4% hard hit rate. he was successful despite this, and i'm not convinced it's a problem, but it's certainly worth noting.

he's a pitcher for the diamondbacks, so there's also the possibility that a humidor will be helping his cause in the future. nothing is certain, but i think it's going to happen at some point.

  • in 2016 ray had FIP/xFIP of 3.76/3.45
  • in 2017 ray had FIP/xFIP of 3.72/3.49

those are very consistent numbers from one season to the next.. his strikeouts were up a bit in 2017, while his walks were also up a bit in 2017 compared to 2016, but the major difference was his babip of .352 in 2016 vs .267 in 2017.. which i'm sure were a huge part of why his ERA fell from 4.9 in 2016 to 2.89 in 2017.  

i like ray a lot, but i think a lot of 2017 was luck driven and while i don't think he's a 4.9 ERA guy, i'm  not buying him at a 2.9 ERA either. steamer projects 3.66 and i'm right there with them, split the middle and i think it's about right.

i don't think he's in the tier with kluber, sale, and kershaw's of the MLB, but i do think he's probably in the next tier. maybe with some guys like carrasco, muccullers, darvish, archer, etc

solid SP2 or true ace in 2018?

Edited by osb_tensor
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting the early ADP in the 4 early mock drafts on fangraphs have him grouped close together with CMart, Verlander, and Archer and I think Paxton's ADP will be right with these. Likely in for a share.

Edited by MrBrett

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's projected to throw 168 innings. I think he will be closer to 190 or so. A 3.5 - 3.6 ERA is probably where he will end up. I think he's a solid SP2, but I rather go with someone like Carrasco.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just how much is the humidor gonna help this guy?

 

He is currently being ranked with the likes of Archer, Darvish and Carlos Martinez ..... (and about a round ahead of Nola, Paxton and Keuchel).

 

Is this ranking too optimistic?   Or is his ceiling even higher than these guys?

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, misterf said:

Just how much is the humidor gonna help this guy?

 

He is currently being ranked with the likes of Archer, Darvish and Carlos Martinez ..... (and about a round ahead of Nola, Paxton and Keuchel).

 

Is this ranking too optimistic?   Or is his ceiling even higher than these guys?

 

 

I think it's right on. All of those guys could either be fantastic or not... we've seen both sides. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, misterf said:

Just how much is the humidor gonna help this guy?

 

He is currently being ranked with the likes of Archer, Darvish and Carlos Martinez ..... (and about a round ahead of Nola, Paxton and Keuchel).

 

Is this ranking too optimistic?   Or is his ceiling even higher than these guys?

 

 

Of those guys you listed I would rank them Darvish, Nola, Martinez, Archer, Ray, Paxton, Keuchel. Give me the first 4 all day because I know they will give me 180-200 innnings. I think Ray, as well as Paxton have the most upside than everyone up there but I just don't trust Ray to go more than 160 innings. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/10/2017 at 12:36 PM, osb_tensor said:

 

solid SP2 or true ace in 2018?

very solid SP2 IMO.  his Ks are legit and im wondering how much the humidor will help him, grienke, corbin, walker etc

 

@Fuzzy_Slippers -ya but corrasco is a legit SP1 and is going 2 rounds before

Edited by jfazz23

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Not a big fan of Ray. He gives up way too many free passes, hitters make a lot of hard contact with his pitches, and even with the humidor, he still plays in one of the most hitter friendly parks in all of baseball. He'll eat up innings and strike guys out, but he could also ruin your day fast because of the factors I mentioned above. The numbers just don't back up his 2017 performance for me personally. I'm thinking a 3.7 to 3.8 ERA and a WHIP over 1.3. Just not my kind of guy. Would love to hear what others have to say on him, though.

 

Edit: I think of Ray like a Chris Archer type. There's potential but the numbers don't add up. I think he is a bust at where he's being drafted and there will be a lot of unhappy owners of his this year.

Edited by RedRaider27
  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, RedRaider27 said:

Not a big fan of Ray. He gives up way too many free passes, hitters make a lot of hard contact with his pitches, and even with the humidor, he still plays in one of the most hitter friendly parks in all of baseball. He'll eat up innings and strike guys out, but he could also ruin your day fast because of the factors I mentioned above. The numbers just don't back up his 2017 performance for me personally. I'm thinking a 3.7 to 3.8 ERA and a WHIP over 1.3. Just not my kind of guy. Would love to hear what others have to say on him, though.

 

Edit: I think of Ray like a Chris Archer type. There's potential but the numbers don't add up. I think he is a bust at where he's being drafted and there will be a lot of unhappy owners of his this year.

 

I feel Archer is better, but I agree with the above sentiments 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone old enough to remember this song, and hum this each time you see Robbie Ray’s name? 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I'm going against the underlying numbers and saying he has another great year. Maybe not sub 3.00 era but close. I feel like the same people who 2 years ago said he should just go be a closer are coming back around and trying to be the first to knock him and say I told you so.

Edited by BayofPuigs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, summersoff7 said:

Why did I take this guy, he's a freaking launch pad.

Yup it's over. Drop immediately. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, summersoff7 said:

Why did I take this guy, he's a freaking launch pad.

 

A debut v the Rockies - even at home because let's face it Chase is its own bandbox - is going to be nerve-wracking.

 

If you drafted Ray hopefully you benched him tonight, as hard as that would be to do in Game 1. I likely wouldn't have either.

 

Either way - this poor outing is meaningless grand scheme. 

 

If crappy outings follow - yeah he's on the hot seat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

He had a 4.97 ERA against the ROX in 2 starts last season. And in the play in "playoff" game against the ROX he was pulled before the 3rd inning. He had a 8.50 against the ROX in 4 starts in 2016. I think it is safe to say that he doesn't pitch well against those players on that team. Try not to panic after 1 start of 33

 

 

Edited by Cdub2k

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gotta love overreactions to game 1 of 162.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, SuperJoint said:

 

A debut v the Rockies - even at home because let's face it Chase is its own bandbox - is going to be nerve-wracking.

 

If you drafted Ray hopefully you benched him tonight, as hard as that would be to do in Game 1. I likely wouldn't have either.

 

Either way - this poor outing is meaningless grand scheme. 

 

If crappy outings follow - yeah he's on the hot seat.

If you can't start him at home then you shouldn't have drafted him. Got very lucky last year, he's still Robbie Ray.

 

What's more surprising is the Humidor. Doesn't seem any different does it!?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

 

What's more surprising is the Humidor. Doesn't seem any different does it!?

 

 

Right?!?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He hasn’t been able to locate his FB yet - consistently up and out to RHBs.  Hopefully he can get that adjusted soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Owning him and Snell this year is either going to give me manic depression or acute diarrhea. 

 

I love fantasy baseball!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Owning him and Snell this year is either going to give me manic depression or acute diarrhea. 

 

I love fantasy baseball!

 

why not both

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now