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Robbie Ray 2018 Outlook

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Im concerned by his lower velocity. Would anyone know if decreased velocity are signs of an injury such as Tommy John?

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5 minutes ago, Petey Pop said:

Im concerned by his lower velocity. Would anyone know if decreased velocity are signs of an injury such as Tommy John?

 

Well it could be. But basically diminished velocity is like a fever: it’s a symptom of almost everything benign and disastrous alike. 

 

Also sorry to nit pick but Tommy John is not an injury; it’s a procedure to fix a torn UCL 

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2 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

Well it could be. But basically diminished velocity is like a fever: it’s a symptom of almost everything benign and disastrous alike. 

 

Also sorry to nit pick but Tommy John is not an injury; it’s a procedure to fix a torn UCL 

 

Thanks. I actually appreciate the correction. 

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On 4/13/2018 at 11:38 PM, Petey Pop said:

 

Thanks. I actually appreciate the correction. 

 

Question for anyone whose good at this stuff - what do his advanced stats look like?  The HR percentage seems high and his batted balls (hard and soft hits) numbers look good but that's about the depths of my expertise.

 

Edited by The Waker

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1 hour ago, The Waker said:

 

Question for anyone whose good at this stuff - what do his advanced stats look like?  The HR percentage seems high and his batted balls (hard and soft hits) numbers look good but that's about the depths of my expertise.

 

 

From my perspective almost everything looks bad:

 

* velocity down 1.5-2 mph

* hard contact up sharply; soft contact down sharply (to a point that is probably too low to be sustainable though)

* LOB% is normal (it was way high last year so corrrection makes sense)

* babip looks normal (.300); last year it was very low

* home run per fly ball looks high so that should adjust back to normal (but still that's just one homer difference)

* walk rate spiking from a guy who hasn't always had good control. No reason to think it stays above 6 bb/9 which is devestating but no reason to believe it goes back to last year.

 

bottom line I wouldn't pay what it would cost to get Ray's 2016 stats right now 

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11 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

From my perspective almost everything looks bad:

 

* velocity down 1.5-2 mph

* hard contact up sharply; soft contact down sharply (to a point that is probably too low to be sustainable though)

* LOB% is normal (it was way high last year so corrrection makes sense)

* babip looks normal (.300); last year it was very low

* home run per fly ball looks high so that should adjust back to normal (but still that's just one homer difference)

* walk rate spiking from a guy who hasn't always had good control. No reason to think it stays above 6 bb/9 which is devestating but no reason to believe it goes back to last year.

 

bottom line I wouldn't pay what it would cost to get Ray's 2016 stats right now 

 

Thanks.  Fangraphs  template was weird last night and i was accidently looking at his career avg batted ball instead of 2018 and thought his 2018 was his 2017.  I will not try to trade for him now.

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11 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

From my perspective almost everything looks bad:

 

* velocity down 1.5-2 mph

* hard contact up sharply; soft contact down sharply (to a point that is probably too low to be sustainable though)

* LOB% is normal (it was way high last year so corrrection makes sense)

* babip looks normal (.300); last year it was very low

* home run per fly ball looks high so that should adjust back to normal (but still that's just one homer difference)

* walk rate spiking from a guy who hasn't always had good control. No reason to think it stays above 6 bb/9 which is devestating but no reason to believe it goes back to last year.

 

bottom line I wouldn't pay what it would cost to get Ray's 2016 stats right now 

Last night he was in the 93-95 mph range with his FB... Encouraging?

He did have 9K in 6 in... Only 2 R on a homer.

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12 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

From my perspective almost everything looks bad:

 

* velocity down 1.5-2 mph

* hard contact up sharply; soft contact down sharply (to a point that is probably too low to be sustainable though)

* LOB% is normal (it was way high last year so corrrection makes sense)

* babip looks normal (.300); last year it was very low

* home run per fly ball looks high so that should adjust back to normal (but still that's just one homer difference)

* walk rate spiking from a guy who hasn't always had good control. No reason to think it stays above 6 bb/9 which is devestating but no reason to believe it goes back to last year.

 

bottom line I wouldn't pay what it would cost to get Ray's 2017 stats right now 

 

Fixed, 2016 he had a 4.90 ERA albeit with over 200 k's but id hope nobody would pay much for those stats

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Value him as you would Chris Archer.

 

The difference between them? 

 

Ray actually has a 3rd pitch that's pretty good, but he won't get close to 200 IP or 250 k's because of control issues.

 

In a keeper league(8:2018, 7:2019, 6:2020) that uses K/BB and OBP as 6th categories, I traded Ray + Russell for Segura and Morrow.

 

If you want a reason to buy him right now...

 

In 2017 His K:BB nearly doubled in the last third of the season.

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he reminds me of Tyson Ross from a few years ago when he was in SD.  Wild, but got K's.  Not a great "GREAT" pitcher.

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This guy is going to give me an ulcer. I swear he has no idea where it's going when he throws it. I don't know why anyone even swings.

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On 3/7/2018 at 2:51 PM, Backdoor Slider said:

Anyone old enough to remember this song, and hum this each time you see Robbie Ray’s name? 

 

Who wants to know?

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52 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

See you in 4 - 6 weeks, Robbie.

Yep, nail on the head.

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Not like many people drafted this guy high after his flukish season last year....right? Would think the rotoworld crowd were smart enough to stay away, and seems like it as no one seems to care much.

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1 hour ago, swfcdan said:

Not like many people drafted this guy high after his flukish season last year....right? Would think the rotoworld crowd were smart enough to stay away, and seems like it as no one seems to care much.

a guy with a career k-rate north of 10 k/9 and an ERA just above 4? both his fip and xfip are below 4 for his career... i'm betting a lot of folks took a gamble.

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Is this a prime opportunity to buy low on Ray, especially in a dynasty league? I know oblique issues can hamper hitters for the remainder of the year and would imagine it would be the same for pitchers, but I can't think of any recent examples of pitchers coming back from oblique strains. Can anyone educate me?

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18 hours ago, lobsterback said:

Is this a prime opportunity to buy low on Ray, especially in a dynasty league? I know oblique issues can hamper hitters for the remainder of the year and would imagine it would be the same for pitchers, but I can't think of any recent examples of pitchers coming back from oblique strains. Can anyone educate me?

This is years back but when he was good Gallardo came back from an oblique and was fine in a few weeks. I owned him that year. I think he’s a buy low or a hold (I’m unfortunately in that latter camp).

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3 hours ago, cyberer said:

This is years back but when he was good Gallardo came back from an oblique and was fine in a few weeks. I owned him that year. I think he’s a buy low or a hold (I’m unfortunately in that latter camp).

I think Cliff Lee had an oblique injury in 2010 when he was playing for the Mariners. Came back and turned in his best season ever, WAR-wise. Lee's a generous comp for just about anyone though.

 

EDIT: Correction - abdominal strain in 2010, oblique injury in 2012. Both were strong seasons for Lee.

Edited by matdotmarshall

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On 4/29/2018 at 2:09 PM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

See you in 4 - 6 weeks, Robbie.

 

According to a report Robbie has a Grade 2 strain. His injury will cost him at least 4 weeks but could be as many as 6 - 12 weeks. Apparently the way Robbie delivers the ball may cause a slower recovery.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/arizonasports.com/story/1516957/d-backs-injury-update-mike-hazen-robbie-ray-shelby-miller-steven-souza/amp/

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He’s throwing again! I highly doubt the veracity of this last part but cbs says he could return in 2 weeks 

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