brockpapersizer

Michael Conforto 2018 Outlook

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My concern is are teams ever not optimistic about a player's return?

 

Do they ever say,  "Joe Blow will be back but his power will likely be sapped?"

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Michael Conforto- 2017 OPS by month:

 

Mar/April  1.055

May            1.054*      *.397 BABIP

June           .700

July            1.020*      *18 games played         

Aug             .822

 

dude has a lethal bat. good pop. drives the ball to all fields.

37.6 k% versus lefties. abysmal lineup protection.

 

over the next 3-4 years, what do you think is his upside?

In a hypothetical world where we could assume good health, in which round would he be drafted?

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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I am really scared of this guy.  His injury reminds me too much of Richie Sexson's back in the day.

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On 11/20/2017 at 10:26 PM, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Michael Conforto- 2017 OPS by month:

 

Mar/April  1.055

May            1.054*      *.397 BABIP

June           .700

July            1.020*      *18 games played         

Aug             .822

 

dude has a lethal bat. good pop. drives the ball to all fields.

37.6 k% versus lefties. abysmal lineup protection.

 

over the next 3-4 years, what do you think is his upside?

In a hypothetical world where we could assume good health, in which round would he be drafted?

Met fan here. His upside is potentially competing for a batting title to go along with great plate discipline, and good power. I would try to reach for him because I don't think you will be able to get him at a discount due to decent name value and he's kind of already broke out. 

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47 minutes ago, Identikit said:

Met fan here. His upside is potentially competing for a batting title to go along with great plate discipline, and good power. I would try to reach for him because I don't think you will be able to get him at a discount due to decent name value and he's kind of already broke out. 

Coming off the injury he had i doubt you'll have to reach for him unless you are a completely biased mets fan. The talent is there for sure but there are also many question marks attached. I would probably stay away from him in redraft leagues unless he falls to the later rounds in which i would definitely take a flier on him as a 4th or 5th OF. In dynasty and keeper leagues I might be more inclined to reach for him in the middle rounds.  The potential is definitely there for him to become a borderline 1st/2nd OF in the future but it's far from a given and coming off his injury i wouldn't expect him to take that leap this season.  Anything is possible though.

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11 minutes ago, 2Balls1Bat said:

Coming off the injury he had i doubt you'll have to reach for him unless you are a completely biased mets fan. The talent is there for sure but there are also many question marks attached. I would probably stay away from him in redraft leagues unless he falls to the later rounds in which i would definitely take a flier on him as a 4th or 5th OF. In dynasty and keeper leagues I might be more inclined to reach for him in the middle rounds.  The potential is definitely there for him to become a borderline 1st/2nd OF in the future but it's far from a given and coming off his injury i wouldn't expect him to take that leap this season.  Anything is possible though.

Sounds cliche but very true statement.

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25 minutes ago, STLSU said:

Sounds cliche but very true statement.

 Yup.  After what Judge did last year coming off his brief stint in 2016 it seemed appropriate to add that cliche.  But injuries asside for conforto, the Mets line up arround him looks terrible, which is another reason I am not so optimistic about him in redraft leagues.  Even if he can prove to make a full recovery this year, unless they make some big moves and or free agent signings, their line up is looking to be among the worst in baseball next year and that will also be a hit to conforto's over all production next season. I still like him in keeper and dynasty leagues though.

Edited by 2Balls1Bat

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11 hours ago, STLSU said:

I am really scared of this guy.  His injury reminds me too much of Richie Sexson's back in the day.

And rightfully so- but- so will a lot of people and I think because of that he could potentially end up being a nice value on draft day.I love his talent and he's definitely a guy I'll be keeping an eye on seeing where his value is at. 

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ok i just got Conforto in our Mock II in the 11th round (124th pick)

 

i think thats UNBELIEVABLE value.

 

can anyone convince me otherwise?

 

27 homers in 370 at bats with a 940 OPS?? yes please

 

 

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

ok i just got Conforto in our Mock II in the 11th round (124th pick)

 

i think thats UNBELIEVABLE value.

 

can anyone convince me otherwise?

 

27 homers in 370 at bats with a 940 OPS?? yes please

 

 

 

If he's fully healed from the injury, it's a steal. If he's not, it's not. 

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Yeah, that's about it.  High risk, high reward.  I needed cheap power desperately but still passed on him in the mock because I'm betting against the Mets medical staff handling him properly.

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6 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Yeah, that's about it.  High risk, high reward.  I needed cheap power desperately but still passed on him in the mock because I'm betting against the Mets medical staff handling him properly.

Sandy said he got rid of half of the medical staff.  Conforto now has half a chance to fully recover before the season starts.

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8 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Sandy said he got rid of half of the medical staff.  Conforto now has half a chance to fully recover before the season starts.

 

Assuming he got rid of the bad half is a dangerous assumption. 

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1 hour ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

Sandy said he got rid of half of the medical staff.  Conforto now has half a chance to fully recover before the season starts.

 

1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Assuming he got rid of the bad half is a dangerous assumption. 

edit: disregard this, i just read your article Brock which is dated after the article i just read

 

my article said he wouldnt be ready for baseball activities until march

Edited by jfazz23

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Sandy has said he doesn't expect Conforto to be ready by Opening Day. Always weary of these type of guys because so many times that timetable gets extended. Then the longer he is out, the more extended Spring Training he will need, the more rust may be there when he returns. Just a very risky guy to own this year. As a Mets fan, I loved him last year but its just impossible to trust this team with injuries.

 

That being said, if he is healthy he is a star. He has a great approach at the dish along with raw power. 27 HR in 370 AB is nothing to brush off, especially when that's along with a non-horrible average and elite walk rate. As long as Cespedes is healthy and the Mets aren't completely putrid on offense, his R and RBI potential will be very high.

 

So it comes down to the round / dollars you need to spend, how your team is shaping up to face the risk of not having him for a while, as well as the risk he reinjures himself.

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I think he's the 2nd coming of Michael Brantley, loads of talent but very injury prone, the thing that scares me the most is how he got injured, just a swing and miss at bat, a very unusual way to get an injury, same thing happened to David Dahl except his wasn't a shoulder plus he won't be ready for opening day, if it was a keeper league i would keep him because of the upside but if its redraft the only way i take him is if he falls quite a bit

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While Michael Conforto has made great progress so far this offseason recovering from a torn posterior capsule in his left shoulder he suffered in August, he likely won’t be ready for Opening Day.

 

Speaking to Gary Apple of SNY Wednesday at Citi Field, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said he eyes a May 1 return for the 24-year-old.

 

“Would it be the worst thing in the world to miss the first few games or first week or so? Yeah, I don’t think it would be the worst thing in the world but I definitely want to be out there,” Conforto said last month. “We’ll see what happens.”

 

 

 

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2018/01/alderson-eyes-may-1-return-for-michael-conforto.html/

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

While Michael Conforto has made great progress so far this offseason recovering from a torn posterior capsule in his left shoulder he suffered in August, he likely won’t be ready for Opening Day.

 

Speaking to Gary Apple of SNY Wednesday at Citi Field, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said he eyes a May 1 return for the 24-year-old.

 

“Would it be the worst thing in the world to miss the first few games or first week or so? Yeah, I don’t think it would be the worst thing in the world but I definitely want to be out there,” Conforto said last month. “We’ll see what happens.”

 

 

 

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2018/01/alderson-eyes-may-1-return-for-michael-conforto.html/

 

 

i think at this point, if you draft him...you cant expect him until May

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should put him at a nice discount but shoulder injuries are scary as to power....figure he's not back until May but I really wouldnt expect to see him return to form until ASB - maybe that's being very pessimistic but it's a serious injury and the Met's medical staff....I'd need a good discount or keeper league to land him.  

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"Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said he eyes a May 1 return for the 24-year-old."

 

"Eyes" and some fir date are two different things.  And 9 times out of 10 a return date is way too optimistic anyway.  Then there is the rust factor and needing to rehab in a mini spring training period.  And the injury is the real scary kind. 

 

In dynasty you wait of course and hope but don't see any reason to have him in a re-draft league unless he isn't taken (and/or dropped) and you can just pick him up into one of your DL slots for down the road.

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If they're already ruling him out for April this far in advance of the season that's a major red flag to me. Usually the injury outlooks you get in January/February are on the overly optimistic sign. "May even be ready prior to April 1.. stuff like that. Hearing this far out that May 1 is the date they're eyeing for a return makes me think we may not see him until mid-June or something. 

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54 minutes ago, absknicks said:

If they're already ruling him out for April this far in advance of the season that's a major red flag to me. Usually the injury outlooks you get in January/February are on the overly optimistic sign. "May even be ready prior to April 1.. stuff like that. Hearing this far out that May 1 is the date they're eyeing for a return makes me think we may not see him until mid-June or something. 

 

Hell, with the inept Mets training staff it'll probably be August...

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