brockpapersizer

Michael Conforto 2018 Outlook

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31 minutes ago, tonywow said:

You guys chalking the slow start to just that, or any concerns with his health ? 

 

Everyone can't be on fire out the gate, but the health issues of last season always have to be a consideration to an extent. He was hitting well for the brief playing time he got at the end up ST which was encouraging. I've continued to hold in my shallow redraft as I know how good he can be when he's on, playing all three OF spots is big in my league too. However making a swap for Inciarte who's hitting great and stealing like a boss is getting hard to pass up. Just curious what you guys think are the main causes of the slow start and if anyone is overly worried about his past injury. Seems to be mixed opinions on how other players having the same kind of injury played once they got back on the field short and long term. 

 

There are leagues where Inciarte isn’t owned???

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One month last year he stunk and only had 1 HR, but the other months he averaged 6-7 Hrs per month and an OPS over 1000.  

 

If you want to be cautious, just bench him against LHP.  You don't want to miss out on a 6 Hr in 2 Week stretch that will help carry your team.

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Man does this guy suck right now. His power seems sapped. We know about his splits vs LHP, but he hasn't done much against righties either. 

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Michael Conforto has played 19 games this season. (including a few games where he just pinch hit)

 

Michael Coforto has reach base by hit or walk... 19 times.

 

Pretty good for a slump. If you play in a standard 5x5 league, sure that hurts, but his OBP is .390.  The eye seems pretty good right now.  He hit a home run this season already and hit one or two while rehabbing.   I'd have to think he is very likely to rebound. Is he 100% healthy? Couldn't tell you. 

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He's one of those guys where I'm not even close to cutting. Remember that his upside is far greater than anyone probably available on your waiver wire

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Traded for Conforto in my dynasty a couple days ago as I thought I was buying low.  I really hope he rebounds soon and starts to reassemble last years form because he looks attroucious right now but the walls have been there.  

Edited by chud12

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37 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Michael Conforto has played 19 games this season. (including a few games where he just pinch hit)

 

Michael Coforto has reach base by hit or walk... 19 times.

 

Pretty good for a slump. If you play in a standard 5x5 league, sure that hurts, but his OBP is .390.  The eye seems pretty good right now.  He hit a home run this season already and hit one or two while rehabbing.   I'd have to think he is very likely to rebound. Is he 100% healthy? Couldn't tell you. 

 

Looks healthy to me. Its just a slump. As you said, still getting on base. In real life baseball he hasn't been that bad. He has a 17/18 K/BB right now, which is very solid. Strikeout rate is down from last year and walk rate is way up. Obviously a very small sample size to judge but just shows that this looks like an anomaly. He's been batting ahead of Cespedes most of the year who's been terrible, so pitchers aren't giving him stuff to hit. Only stat that seems way out of whack is ISO is way down. Maybe that is attributable to the shoulder but its still very early to conclude on that.

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I play in an OBP league so I ain't even mad about him during this slump. He has 17 walks and 57ABs. That's insane. 

 

Just wish he'd get some more XBH for the SLG. 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Michael Conforto has played 19 games this season. (including a few games where he just pinch hit)

 

Michael Coforto has reach base by hit or walk... 19 times.

 

Pretty good for a slump. If you play in a standard 5x5 league, sure that hurts, but his OBP is .390.  The eye seems pretty good right now.  He hit a home run this season already and hit one or two while rehabbing.   I'd have to think he is very likely to rebound. Is he 100% healthy? Couldn't tell you. 

 

 

I miss the old days of 4 OFs ... now it's 2 OF's and 5 INFs

 

 

 

 

jk BPS

 

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8 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

 

I miss the old days of 4 OFs ... now it's 2 OF's and 5 INFs

 

 

 

 

jk BPS

 

 

I don't know if you saw, but some team used a 4 of Shift on gallo this year.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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Did I really pass on keeping Albies for this dumpster fire?  Wow.  

 

I know he will heat up...eventually...right?

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Slumps happen, although I'm concerned about the drop in Hard% (30%, down from 41.6% last year). I don't know how to use FG well enough to actually pull this data, but have to imagine that's one of the steeper drops among batter from 2017 to 2018.

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Mother,

The medicos continue to assure me that the tingling and numbness in my shoulder is part of the healing process and that anyway learning to shave and feed myself with my other arm will help with coordination.

 

One of the players - I shan't name him - gave me this card. On your next trip into Manhattan perhaps you could make inquiries. 

 

Image result for civil war prosthetic arm

 

This time instead of baseballs (the other teams have been giving us their old ones) please send orange thread and some needles. The NY on my hat is beginning to unravel. 

 

Humbly,

Michael

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.222 with a .317 slugging %. Ouch! 

 

Lots of better guys on the waiver wire at this point. Cespedes and Bruce play every day and you can tell they prefer Nimmo/Lagares combo at this point (they actually offer production). Conforto’s hollow stats have left him the odd man out. 

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31 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

.222 with a .317 slugging %. Ouch! 

 

Lots of better guys on the waiver wire at this point. Cespedes and Bruce play every day and you can tell they prefer Nimmo/Lagares combo at this point (they actually offer production). Conforto’s hollow stats have left him the odd man out. 

 

 

Im confused, Conforto has sat twice in the past 10 games... 

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I dropped him in a 12 teamer and he went through waivers. That includes the guy who owned him last year during his very hot streak. Just too many decent options in our league to worry about when Conforto turns it around - which I do think happens - at this time.

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On 4/29/2018 at 10:33 PM, matdotmarshall said:

Slumps happen, although I'm concerned about the drop in Hard% (30%, down from 41.6% last year). I don't know how to use FG well enough to actually pull this data, but have to imagine that's one of the steeper drops among batter from 2017 to 2018.

But you would still expect him to be posting better numbers than he has, so sounds like bad luck as well as a slump. In a redraft I could probably see moving on, especially an AVG one- doubt anyone picks him up at this point.

 

In keepers though especially OBP leagues like I'm in we have to hold. Just feel like it could be a month or two before we see good Conforto-level production from him. And their surplus OF's really hurts as well, as he could easily get more regular benching until he starts hitting. Or his shoulder is still barking and he gets shelved to get it back to full strength...

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hoping April was his ST and he starts to get his timing down now

 

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I think people are bailing on him far too early. Remember he was injured to start the season, so he has 60% of the ABs as most players so far in the year.  Now if he keeps this up through May then that's a different story, but he's only had 60ABs in the year. 

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He hasn't fully recovered.  Probably will take a while for him to return to form.  Later than sooner probably.

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I'd much rather just bench him than risk losing him to another team for nothing, and then watching as he gets hot.

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As always, it depends on what's on your wire and how set you are in your outfield.  I's not like he's a Votto or E5 who has a long history of being elite.  He's a young player who's had less than two seasons worth of PAs in his four year career, during which time he's oscillated between being MVP-caliber, being hurt, and now being totally unstartable.  When there's an obvious injury factor, when there was real speculation about whether his career would ever be the same after that injury, when he came back well ahead of schedule, and when the metrics show exactly what you'd expect an an ailing shoulder to show (trading hard contact for medium contact, trading Pull% and Cent% for Oppo%), it's up to each manager to decide whether they think the possible return to form is going to happen later this month, after the ASB, after the 2018 offseason, or never.

 

We don't have a lot of data to draw on to make this decision, but this isn't an obvious case where you just HODL with confidence that he'll regress to the mean.  If we even knew what is "mean" was -- which I'd argue we don't -- the simple fact is that there may be an underlying health reason why the numbers are where they are, and there are scenarios where dropping for help elsewhere is very much justified.

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2 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

As always, it depends on what's on your wire and how set you are in your outfield.  I's not like he's a Votto or E5 who has a long history of being elite.  He's a young player who's had all of 740 PAs of major league experience, during which time he's oscillated between being MVP-caliber, being hurt, and now being totally unstartable.  When there's an obvious injury factor, when there was real speculation about whether his career would ever be the same after that injury, when he came back well ahead of schedule, and when the metrics show exactly what you'd expect an an ailing shoulder to show (trading hard contact for medium contact, trading Pull% and Cent% for Oppo%), it's up to each manager to decide whether they think the possible return to form is going to happen later this month, after the ASB, after the 2018 offseason, or never.

 

We don't have a lot of data to draw on to make this decision, but this isn't an obvious case where you just HODL with confidence that he'll regress to the mean.  If we even knew what is "mean" was -- which I'd argue we don't -- the simple fact is that there may be an underlying health reason why the numbers are where they are, and there are scenarios where dropping for help elsewhere is very much justified.

I wouldn't call him totally unstartable in leagues that count walks and OBP

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