brockpapersizer

Michael Conforto 2018 Outlook

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either he sucks, or he's still hurt.  He cant hit lefties.  Are you 12 teamers dropping him?

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3 minutes ago, summersoff7 said:

either he sucks, or he's still hurt.  He cant hit lefties.  Are you 12 teamers dropping him?

No.  Shoulder surgery is tough to comeback from.  Hard hit way down, but 20% walk rate, zone swing rates similar.  I’m guessing it’s a small sample of some bad matchups for him.  He’s a buy low to me.  This kid is a professional hitter.  You may have to be patient through May into June, it’s a long season.  Hang tight it will be worth it.

Edited by Cmilne23
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1 minute ago, Cmilne23 said:

No.  Shoulder surgery is tough to comeback from.  Hard hit way down, but 20% walk rate, zone swing rates similar.  I’m guessing it’s a small sample of some bad matchups for him.  He’s a buy low to me.  This kid is a professional hitter.  You may have to be patient through May into June, it’s a long season.  Hang tight it will be worth it.

guessing he's going to have to warm the bench every day until he shows some signs of life

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15 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

No.  Shoulder surgery is tough to comeback from.  Hard hit way down, but 20% walk rate, zone swing rates similar.  I’m guessing it’s a small sample of some bad matchups for him.  He’s a buy low to me.  This kid is a professional hitter.  You may have to be patient through May into June, it’s a long season.  Hang tight it will be worth it.

I remember owning Adrian Gonzalez the year following his shoulder surgery and the similar start he had to the following season. In October of 2010 he had a labral repair after a season where he hit 31hrs and had a .213 ISO. In April of the following year he only hit 1 home run in 105 at bats. He ended the year with a .210 iso and 26hrs in line with his previous year. It’s only 1 case and the surgery was a little different but the point remains that it’s going to take some time for his power to return. If you own him you can bench him if you want but dropping him or selling low would be a mistake imo.

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2 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I remember owning Adrian Gonzalez the year following his shoulder surgery and the similar start he had to the following season. In October of 2010 he had a labral repair after a season where he hit 31hrs and had a .213 ISO. In April of the following year he only hit 1 home run in 105 at bats. He ended the year with a .210 iso and 26hrs in line with his previous year. It’s only 1 case and the surgery was a little different but the point remains that it’s going to take some time for his power to return. If you own him you can bench him if you want but dropping him or selling low would be a mistake imo.

Fantastic comparison.  Also owned Agone that year.  It can take a bit of time to come back from this surgery but this kid works his a** off.  He knows how to hit.  There’s going to be some timing issues and some mechanical stuff to work through coming off that layoff.  Just have to be patient this is a guy people should prepare for being a significant asset in the second half of the season.  Not all guys on a team are going to be raking at same time.  Conforto is a guy teams should be mentally preparing to get mediocre results through May — anything more is a plus, and from June on expectations should be serious contributions. 

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On 4/13/2018 at 9:41 AM, metropolitans said:

his 'breakout' happened last year, to improve upon those numbers would be taking the next step to super-stardom. teams already acknowledge him as a franchise caliber player so the only 'significant thing' that needs to happen is him staying healthy in 2018. you sound like someone with sour grapes rather than genuine insight

Well how does it sound now

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He's still getting acclimated to games after a long stretch of not playing and missing spring training. All it takes is 1 game. If he has a 2 Homer game with a double today or tomorrow will people still be complaining then? He'll have a week where he goes off and everyone will be jump back on. 

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11 hours ago, summersoff7 said:

either he sucks, or he's still hurt.  He cant hit lefties.  Are you 12 teamers dropping him?

 

Dropped two weeks ago in my 12 team and he’s still out there on waivers. 

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12 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

Dropped two weeks ago in my 12 team and he’s still out there on waivers. 

 

As well. I picked up ESuarez for him and that's looking ok regardless. Conforto's stats bury him on the FA wire which hopefully keeps him out of fellow manager's minds should he get hot. I am still a believer mid to long term. However, it remains to be seen whether his power will come back this year or not.  That will be what draws most of us back...

Edited by knuckleheads
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I remember when I was offered Manaea for this guy, who is probably the worst hitter in NL at the moment. But I'm not worried, since everyone says he so good, I guess I just keep running him out and taking the zeros.

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8 hours ago, JaeTM said:

He's still getting acclimated to games after a long stretch of not playing and missing spring training. All it takes is 1 game. If he has a 2 Homer game with a double today or tomorrow will people still be complaining then? He'll have a week where he goes off and everyone will be jump back on. 

.

But don't worry, another week like the past 5 and nobody will be around to complain or celebrate.

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me waiting for michael conforto's "spring training" to be over

 

Image result for me waiting meme

Edited by crotchcrickets
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I understand the argument of not dropping him based on last season’s perfomance. However, everyone recovers from injuries in different ways and no one is buying this guy based on what he’s shown thus far. Plus the shoulder injury last year makes most managers not want to take the risk unless he shows positive offensive signs. So basically you either own him and you just let him eat up a bench spot or you drop him and let someone else be patient with him. There’s no guarantee that he will return to form. It’s a gamble and I dropped in a 12-teamer and no one even pounced once he clears waivers. If you drop him you just need to monitor his performance and pounce once he shows any type of life. 

Edited by HaloFanatic17
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5 hours ago, street sharks said:

Can’t believe people are dropping someone like this but hanging onto guys like Carpenter 

 

For Carpenter no. But would you for: ESuarez, Belt, Soler??  Those guys have all been widely available...

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He has a really interesting stat profile currently.

 

His BB rate is up significantly 13% to 19.8% this year, his K rate is down 25.7% to 24.4%.

 

Batted ball breakout is largely the same. LD/GB/FB are fairly close to 2017 numbers - GB slightly up. His contact rate is also up.

 

His hard contact is down noticeably and his IFFB rate is up significantly - though at only 16 FB that rate can change quickly.

 

in all it feels like Conforto could be a bit more aggressive - zone swing rate is down and is probably pressing a bit hence the IFFB rate.

 

Honestly a bit difficult to tell what to make of it - either he isn’t healthy so he is taking a bunch more walks and swinging at less pitches because he doesn’t feel confident in making solid contact. Or he is seeing the ball better and pressing to find the perfect pitch to drive only to pop it up. 

 

Foe me personally I am holding on my bench until I absolutely have to have the roster spot. If he gets going he has a game changing bat and I want to be the one to own it.

 

 

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My problem with him other than being ice cold is when will he ever be a regular in the lineup against both L/R SP? 

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9 hours ago, street sharks said:

Can’t believe people are dropping someone like this but hanging onto guys like Carpenter 

Someone like what? Awful player and as I said the ceiling isn’t high. He wasn’t a number one overall pick. Citi is a morgue in terms of offense. Let’s not act like the guy is Ted Williams. Really hasn’t done much to deserve the incredible hype some foolishly give him. I don’t get it 

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Conforto is really good. He was a "bargain" in drafts because he was injured. I tried to caution people who were getting way too hyped on him, because it's never good when a player starts the year off hurt. I don't know when things will click for him, but I'm confident it eventually will. 

 

Just further caution about drafting hurt guys in redraft leagues. Sometimes it works out, sometimes you get a frustrating year.

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7 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Conforto is really good. He was a "bargain" in drafts because he was injured. I tried to caution people who were getting way too hyped on him, because it's never good when a player starts the year off hurt. I don't know when things will click for him, but I'm confident it eventually will. 

 

Just further caution about drafting hurt guys in redraft leagues. Sometimes it works out, sometimes you get a frustrating year.

 

Its a lot less frustrating once you drop him.

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6 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Conforto is really good. He was a "bargain" in drafts because he was injured. I tried to caution people who were getting way too hyped on him, because it's never good when a player starts the year off hurt. I don't know when things will click for him, but I'm confident it eventually will. 

 

Just further caution about drafting hurt guys in redraft leagues. Sometimes it works out, sometimes you get a frustrating year.

Even when he does start hitting Righty's again he most likely will still be in a platoon situation kinda like Matt Adams has been most his career. 

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10 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

Its a lot less frustrating once you drop him.

 

You'll have to trust me that I'm in no league shallow enough where dropping him is a good idea.

 

I only have a dynasty share and a draft and hold share. Cutting isn't an option. 

 

Personally outside of season ending injury, I wouldn't want to play in a league where a struggling star is just dropped. Not my type of fantasy baseball. Too easy and shallow.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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4 minutes ago, DMurphy77 said:

Even when he does start hitting Righty's again he most likely will still be in a platoon situation kinda like Matt Adams has been most his career. 

 

He was pretty elite last year that it shouldnt matter too much. Most lefties don't hit lefties. If you're in a daily league it almost doesn't matter. He was also greatly improved vs lefties last year. 729 ops which isn't great, but not awful. You should look up the splits for most lefties, it's not great. I want to say Freeman is pretty good.

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5 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

He was pretty elite last year that it shouldnt matter too much. Most lefties don't hit lefties. If you're in a daily league it almost doesn't matter. He was also greatly improved vs lefties last year. 729 ops which isn't great, but not awful. You should look up the splits for most lefties, it's not great. I want to say Freeman is pretty good.

 

.232 ISO vs lefties last year with 6 HRs

 

Honestly? It's good enough for fantasy purposes. It's certainly good enough for the Mets to keep Conforto in an everyday role.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

.232 ISO vs lefties last year with 6 HRs

 

Honestly? It's good enough for fantasy purposes. It's certainly good enough for the Mets to keep Conforto in an everyday role.

 

 

 

Yeah that's pretty good. Hitting lefties is just something that I'm not concerned about with Conforto at the moment. Seems secondary to just hitting in general right now.

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