STLSU

Miguel Sano 2018 Outlook

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I really admire Sano's improved 3B defense last year, and he was a high average hitter in the first half with power.  However there will be many shying away due to the surgical titanium rod implant in his left tibia and if it will hold up (no pun intended) under his 2018 playing weight for the whole year.  No one seems to be quite sure if the condition is symptomatic of a more serious bone or body issue.  Probably we will have to wait until mid March or so to get a truer picture (unless the team holds back on his preseason and ST regimen, forcing a late start.  

 

His EV gives hope for the future and fully healthy, I expect him to barrel plenty of balls.

 

What does everyone think of his outlook?

Edited by STLSU
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I think health is the only issue otherwise he’s a potential 40 hr guy with a 250 batting average.  I enjoyed buying low on him last year. 

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If he's a 250 hitter I'll have to shy away. Winning in 6x6 on a weekly basis in my ESPN seems to require .780 min OPS and .275 minimum BA (if your league uses BA).

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12 minutes ago, STLSU said:

If he's a 250 hitter I'll have to shy away. Winning in 6x6 on a weekly basis in my ESPN seems to require .780 min OPS and .275 minimum BA (if your league uses BA).

 

Not going to deny the truth behind the statement for your league. In my 14 team league a .275 average would have been 3rd place overall in average. In 2018 a .250 average won't kill you, and he probably has some average upside... he hits the ball pretty damn hard. .250 was off my head, maybe .260, haven't really broken it down much.  I feel like he's a pretty similar hitter to Upton, probably more power and less steals.  I feel like every fantasy team has productive hitters that hit 240-260, deeper leagues more so.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Seems injury prone.  ADP too high for my tastes.

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Most likely still a lot of details to come out from this, but its obviously an ominous sign given the state of the environment right now. As of now I'd consider him undraftable because the range of outcomes is all over the place.

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46 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

Most likely still a lot of details to come out from this, but its obviously an ominous sign given the state of the environment right now. As of now I'd consider him undraftable because the range of outcomes is all over the place.

this.  took him in our mock...dont think i can take him now

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Did Jung Ho Kang get suspended for sexual assault accusations? That's the only comparable player I can think of. 

 

Regardless, if there is no MLB penalty, I could see the twins releasing him and other teams avoiding him for a long time..I'm assuming it will be a turn off to fans to root for a player like that. Not worth the risk. 

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

10 minutes ago, dsd10988 said:

Did Jung Ho Kang get suspended for sexual assault accusations? That's the only comparable player I can think of. 

 

Regardless, if there is no MLB penalty, I could see the twins releasing him and other teams avoiding him for a long time..I'm assuming it will be a turn off to fans to root for a player like that. Not worth the risk. 

 

assuming its true (still innocent until proven guilty) this just sounds disgusting.

 

i dont see how any team could roster him.  unless something comes out like this woman is blackmailing him and/or twins for money, he shouldnt be in the league.  you dont want to go the same route as the NFL

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With the story as it is I don't see any possible way the Twins would even consider releasing him. A suspension and/or fine seem likely.

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53 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

With the story as it is I don't see any possible way the Twins would even consider releasing him. A suspension and/or fine seem likely.

 

I agree. What he did was disgusting, for sure, but releasing him? He forced a woman to go to the apple store with him and tried kissing her and what not and held her against her will there, but at least it ended at that. I will say, had it gone any further I could definitely see them releasing him. As it stands? Not so much. 

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[ One removed.  We can all note the existence of the allegations and alter our valuation for Sano accordingly without litigating the credibility of the allegations here or judging the accuser based on "seeing pictures of the girl."  This is obviously a delicate situation that will be resolved by MLB's disciplinary procedures, which means that no amount of talking about it here is going to lead to anything actionable fantasy-wise. ]

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Quote

In a statement obtained by TMZ Sports, Sano says the story is completely false ... saying, "I unequivocally deny the allegation made against me today — it never happened.

"I have the utmost respect for women, especially those working in professional sports, and I deeply sympathize with anyone who has experienced sexual harassment. There is no place for it in our society."

The Twins have released a statement, saying they're aware of the allegations and taking them "very seriously."

 

Source: http://www.tmz.com/2017/12/28/miguel-sano-denies-assaulting-female-photographer/

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20 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

decent buy low opportunity 

 

In a dynasty or keeper league maybe, but not sure how you could confidently trade for him or draft him at his current ADP in a single season league.

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Yeah, but "at his current ADP" is counting mocks where this risk wasn't known.  Obviously his value tumbles with this news.  If this is still hanging over him when March rolls around, there could be a buying opportunity for the risk-tolerant.

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Its a bad accusation for sure, if its true it doesn't bode well for him, I see a suspension but nothing more, I don't know what's considered worse this or domestic violence and those guys got 30 games i believe, so does he get the same, more or less, i'm not sure.

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Hard to see this accusation having an impact this year in a straight he said/she said situation kind of like the Addison Russell accusation that has been “under investigation” for 6 months and running.

 

By contrast, the Familia/Chapman situations were denied but backed up with a police report and undeniable evidence of them doing sketchy things that only violent angry people do.   Even then, those were 15 and 30 game suspensions.  I am more worried about Sano staying on the field due to health issues.

 

No clue what the evidence was in the Derek Norris case but I have to believe it was extreme for the league to come down on a player denying the accusation so much harder than they did with Familia and Chapman.

 

(Caveat — no opinion is being offered on the truth of the accusation or what should happen if it is true)

 

 

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I think he's getting suspended. Given the context of what's going on in society right now it'd be pretty shocking to me if Manfred let him off easy. 

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2 hours ago, azeri98 said:

Its a bad accusation for sure, if its true it doesn't bode well for him, I see a suspension but nothing more, I don't know what's considered worse this or domestic violence and those guys got 30 games i believe, so does he get the same, more or less, i'm not sure.

 

56 minutes ago, Weekday Warrior said:

By contrast, the Familia/Chapman situations were denied but backed up with a police report and undeniable evidence of them doing sketchy things that only violent angry people do.   Even then, those were 15 and 30 game suspensions.  I am more worried about Sano staying on the field due to health issues.

 

Normally we could look at the precedent and decide what the most likely outcome would be, but with the political climate around these accusations being what it is, its hard to assume anything at this point.

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[ One removed. A Tarzan-esque broken English impression of what was going on inside Sano's head during the alleged assault is not adding value to the conversation about him as a fantasy asset. This topic is already perilous enough to talk about here without people who should know better adding a cultural angle. ]

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12 hours ago, Weekday Warrior said:

 

 

No clue what the evidence was in the Derek Norris case but I have to believe it was extreme for the league to come down on a player denying the accusation so much harder than they did with Familia and Chapman.

 

 

Whoops I made a mistake, the Norris suspension was only a month, which makes sense as there was no arrest or police report or (as was the case in Jose Reyes’ 51 game suspension) ER visit.

 

So there does seem to be a pattern of precedent based on the weight of the evidence.

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Man I don’t know he’s dealing with injury and now the accusations love his talent wanted to see him as a red sock but I think I will pass At his adp 

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Let me be clear, the fantasy impact is one of the least important implications of the claim that was made against Sano. However, I've talked a lot about the non-baseball side of it all elsewhere and the TLDR of it is that this needs to be taken very seriously, but we need way more information before we can make a judgement either way. All that said, this is a platform to discuss fantasy baseball, so I'd like to talk about the fantasy impact of this

 

The biggest thing to worry about from solely a fantasy impact with this is a possible suspension. Right now, it's way too early to tell if there should or will be one, as again, there's way too much we don't know. But if it turns out the allegations against him are true, I could see a pretty significant suspension looming. Maybe half a year? Up to a full year? I really don't know, this is a bit of uncharted territory in the MLB. On the flip side of things, if he's found innocent or nothing can be proven against him, I could still see a suspension handed to him, but maybe only up to 15 games

 

It will be very interesting to see how the MLB handles this. There have been a few domestic abuse cases, but this is a bit unique

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