Weekday Warrior

Delino DeShields 2018 Outlook

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I’m no expert but I scooped him up as a wait and see in a few leagues.  He can easily score 100 runs atop that lineup with 450 ab’s.  Throw in 30 sb’s and a .340+ OBP, I think he is worth a flier. Dude is only 25 years old!

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On 11/22/2017 at 6:27 PM, Weekday Warrior said:

Am I hallucinating or did he really score 75 runs in just 376 ABs last season?  Anything to see here? Worth monitoring in Spring for signs of an everyday role? 

Steamer has him at .246/.330 with some serious babip regression built in. If he could hit .260/340 would that be good enough for him to stick at leadoff? If so, I could see a 90run 40sb campaign pretty quickly. What's going on with Tex roster anyway, they still holding on to Choo and Gomez?

 

His floor is the problem. 9th in order, 4 OF. 

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13 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

Steamer has him at .246/.330 with some serious babip regression built in. If he could hit .260/340 would that be good enough for him to stick at leadoff? If so, I could see a 90run 40sb campaign pretty quickly. What's going on with Tex roster anyway, they still holding on to Choo and Gomez?

 

His floor is the problem. 9th in order, 4 OF. 

We're going to see some combo of Choo/Gomez/DeShields/Calhoun this year I think. It makes it tough, but Choo and Gomez miss a decent amount of time. I think we're going to see DeShields be the better version of Dyson - less than a full years worth of ABs, similar SB totals, with a better BA.

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2 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

We're going to see some combo of Choo/Gomez/DeShields/Calhoun this year I think. It makes it tough, but Choo and Gomez miss a decent amount of time. I think we're going to see DeShields be the better version of Dyson - less than a full years worth of ABs, similar SB totals, with a better BA.

 

Did you forget about Mazara? I guess Mazara is locked into RF. Someone is sitting out tho. 

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Did you forget about Mazara? I guess Mazara is locked into RF. Someone is sitting out tho. 

I 100% did forget. Yeah, gonna be a bit of a jam!

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I 100% did forget. Yeah, gonna be a bit of a jam!

 

Im guessing its a battle for CF between Delino/Gomez. Choo is playing for sure. I'm a huge Willie Calhoun fan, maybe they send him down for a bit to start, but I think he's going to be  very good and start the season in the bigs. Also his LF defense was very solid in the minors before his call up.

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Ya this looks like a classic log jam. In redraft mixers, he'll probably be dropped and picked up multiple times throughout the season. 

 

Half this thread next year is going to be about chasing PT. 

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At this point Gomez hasn't been resigned, so that means that CF is delino's, right? Love his profile as a lead off guy. Interesting that his splits show a much more patient hitter when leading off vs in the 9 hole. 

2017 leading off (349pa) - 11.5% bb rate

2017 9 hole (73pa) - 4.1% bb rate

his career numbers are much much closer, both around 9%, so maybe it's just small sample size... or maybe it was a conscious effort to get on base more when leading off.

Edited by osb_tensor

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400 AB  might be the new 600 AB.  Playing every day might begin to become a thing of the past.

 

There are so many of these types of players that will likely get 400 AB that every fantasy team will be affected.   It will essentially be a wash.

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9 minutes ago, jwblue said:

400 AB  might be the new 600 AB.  Playing every day might begin to become a thing of the past.

 

There are so many of these types of players that will likely get 400 AB that every fantasy team will be affected.   It will essentially be a wash.

i don't know.. maybe? i hadn't really thought about batters PA shrinking time like starting pitcher's IP. i'd like to do a bit more researching, but i don't have a lot of free time today.

number of players with 600+ PA in a season since 2013:

2017 - 77
2016 - 88
2015 - 81
2014 - 75
2013 - 75

Edited by osb_tensor
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I'd like to see Deshields get a full season of ABs atop the Texas lineup, but at the moment he seems to be destined for the bottom of the order, according to Rotochamp and RosterResource. They both have Choo leading off, but I don't see him lasting all season health-wise, so Deshields should get some leadoff ABs. But at least he's currently projected to be the starting CF at the moment. I guess it depends on whether or not Gomez re-signs. If Gomez signs elsewhere, I have a hard time seeing Deshields get less than 500 ABs (if healthy). 


Right now, RR has Mazara in LF, Deshields in CF, and Choo in RF with Calhoun at DH. Seems like Mazara should be in RF, Calhoun in LF, and Choo at DH. Jmo. 

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If Gomez resigns, I probably avoid DeShields, except as a waiver wire fill in at some point.

 

No Gomez, and the chance to start in CF and hitting atop of the order.  Your looking at a potential .350 OBP, 100 run, 40 SB OF.  That isn't a horrible OF#3  in a 12-teamer if you invested your resources heavily elsewhere.

Edited by Hellgrammite

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3 hours ago, Hellgrammite said:

If Gomez resigns, I probably avoid DeShields, except as a waiver wire fill in at some point.

 

No Gomez, and the chance to start in CF and hitting atop of the order.  Your looking at a potential .350 OBP, 100 run, 40 SB OF.  That isn't a horrible OF#3  in a 12-teamer if you invested your resources heavily elsewhere.

With SB rarity becoming an issue that would be a huge year. 

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Looks like the rays are picking up Gomez on a one year deal.  Is this the move needed to guarantee delino playing time for an entire season finally?  Man I hope so.

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2 hours ago, Triple Crown25 said:

Looks like the rays are picking up Gomez on a one year deal.  Is this the move needed to guarantee delino playing time for an entire season finally?  Man I hope so.

 

I think it is. Unfortunately, he's currently projected to hit near the bottom of the lineup. Based on last year, I think he could touch 110 runs if he led off, but it doesn't look like that will happen, barring injury. As of now, I think he's a safe bet for 550AB, .260-90-8-40-30 (based on him hitting 8th/9th)...with potential upside of .270-110-10-55-45.

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Towards the end of last year he was leading off roughly half the time. This guy has a decent hit tool, and blazing speed. I'm targetting him late because he has a real chance to steal 50+ bags.

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On 2/23/2018 at 2:44 PM, DConny1 said:

Towards the end of last year he was leading off roughly half the time. This guy has a decent hit tool, and blazing speed. I'm targetting him late because he has a real chance to steal 50+ bags.

 

I don't know that he has a chance to steal 50+ bags, but I could see 40-45. I'd love to see him get the leadoff gig and stay there, but right now Choo is listed as the leadoff guy...I guess because of his career OBP. Can Deshields knock him out of the leadoff spot? Barring injury, I doubt it. I know some will say Choo is going to get hurt (and I've been one of those), but he played 149 games last year and has played 149+ in four of the last six years (one of the two he didn't, he played 123 games and logged 455 AB). So I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Choo will spend time on the DL and give Deshields PAs at the leadoff spot. 

 

I will say this, however, if Deshields is relegated to the 9-hole, there are worst places to be. Sure,  it will limit his ABs, but he now has CF all to himself. If he stays healthy and gets 150 games there, I think we can bet on 550 ABs. And if that's the case, then the run totals should still be high because of the top of the lineup following him. And if he gets 550 ABs, Deshields is better than a late-round flier. 

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Where are you seeing he's in the 9th spot? Is that from a preseason game? Quote below makes me think they're at least considering leadoff. 

 

 

Jeff Banister answers questions from the local Austin news media during the Texas Rangers winter caravan presser at the Round Rock Sports Center, on Tuesday, Jan, 23, 2018.

Texas expects to score plenty of runs. Although the Rangers are rumored to be in the mix for free-agent center fielders Lorenzo Cain and Carlos Gomez, they were 54-48 with DeShields starting and 24-36 when he didn’t.

“Delino brings defense and speed, and he’s a force at the top of the lineup,” manager Jeff Banister said. “He’s 25 and has plenty of room to grow.”

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1 hour ago, osb_tensor said:

Where are you seeing he's in the 9th spot? Is that from a preseason game? Quote below makes me think they're at least considering leadoff. 

 

 

Jeff Banister answers questions from the local Austin news media during the Texas Rangers winter caravan presser at the Round Rock Sports Center, on Tuesday, Jan, 23, 2018.

Texas expects to score plenty of runs. Although the Rangers are rumored to be in the mix for free-agent center fielders Lorenzo Cain and Carlos Gomez, they were 54-48 with DeShields starting and 24-36 when he didn’t.

“Delino brings defense and speed, and he’s a force at the top of the lineup,” manager Jeff Banister said. “He’s 25 and has plenty of room to grow.”

 

No, it's on RosterResource and RotoChamp. That, and I question how they shift the lineup if Delino leads off. Where does Choo hit? Right now I'm seeing Choo, Andrus, Mazara, Beltre, Gallo, Odor, Chirinos, Calhoun, Deshields. Maybe Choo hits 3rd and Mazara drops to 4th and everyone drops a spot? Or Choo drops to 5th and drops Gallo/Odor/Chirinos/Calhoun down a spot? Frankly, I think Choo makes more sense as a 2- or 3-hitter. 

 

I'd love for Deshields to hit leadoff for the Rangers. Gives him more PAs, which leads to more SBs and the potential for 120+ runs. 

Edited by Flyman75

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6 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I don't know that he has a chance to steal 50+ bags, but I could see 40-45. I'd love to see him get the leadoff gig and stay there, but right now Choo is listed as the leadoff guy...I guess because of his career OBP. Can Deshields knock him out of the leadoff spot? Barring injury, I doubt it. I know some will say Choo is going to get hurt (and I've been one of those), but he played 149 games last year and has played 149+ in four of the last six years (one of the two he didn't, he played 123 games and logged 455 AB). So I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Choo will spend time on the DL and give Deshields PAs at the leadoff spot. 

 

I will say this, however, if Deshields is relegated to the 9-hole, there are worst places to be. Sure,  it will limit his ABs, but he now has CF all to himself. If he stays healthy and gets 150 games there, I think we can bet on 550 ABs. And if that's the case, then the run totals should still be high because of the top of the lineup following him. And if he gets 550 ABs, Deshields is better than a late-round flier. 

I certainly think he has 50 steal potential. He's stolen over 50 bags 3x in the minors (83 in A ball). If they give him the constant green light, he will run like wild.

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I love DeShields this year. The value is incredible.  I think he easily steals 40 bases and scores over 100 runs, and will probably only cost about $5 in an auction.  Billy Hamilton might cost you 3X that and will underperform DeShields in all categories except steals. Dee Gordon, granted plays 2nd (but 2nd base is very deep this year), will cost 4X DeShields and will be very comparable in all categories. Gordon has a slight advantage in staels, but DeShields has more power.  I have a feeling DeShields ADP will climb sooner rather than later, especially since they said good bye to Gomez.

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On 3/4/2018 at 8:00 PM, singular said:

I love DeShields this year. The value is incredible.  I think he easily steals 40 bases and scores over 100 runs, and will probably only cost about $5 in an auction.  Billy Hamilton might cost you 3X that and will underperform DeShields in all categories except steals. Dee Gordon, granted plays 2nd (but 2nd base is very deep this year), will cost 4X DeShields and will be very comparable in all categories. Gordon has a slight advantage in staels, but DeShields has more power.  I have a feeling DeShields ADP will climb sooner rather than later, especially since they said good bye to Gomez.

I think it's unfair to compare him to Hamilton who is in a class by himself. DeShields might breakout and steal 40 bases in a full season, but Hamilton has shown he only needs 120 games to steal 58 bags... DeShields has yet to steal 30, let alone 40. So there's reason you get him cheap. DeShields could lose PT due to lack of production again too.

 

When it comes to SB guys, outside of Hamilton, DeShields is a very intriguing name on the list. 

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Whoa nelly, some people are bullish on DD, Jr!  I thought his ceiling was somethng in the 90 R, 35 SB range (and his floor is back in the minors) but some of these projections are for 2nd round value!

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