Jyeatbvg

Miguel Cabrera 2018 Outlook

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The mighty have fallen, or so it seems. Miggy looks destined for a Pujols-like fall after last year, but is it too early to write him off? Just two years off from a 38-dong season where he returned early round value for owners, this might be the year where owners can get sneaky value drafting Miggy in the middle rounds. Thoughts?

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1 minute ago, Jyeatbvg said:

The mighty have fallen, or so it seems. Miggy looks destined for a Pujols-like fall after last year, but is it too early to write him off? Just two years off from a 38-dong season where he returned early round value for owners, this might be the year where owners can get sneaky value drafting Miggy in the middle rounds. Thoughts?

It's not to early to write him off, do yourself a favor, move on.

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6 minutes ago, Topgun said:

It's not to early to write him off, do yourself a favor, move on.

gotta disagree. he just went in round 9 in the mock, if you can get him super late why wouldn't you?

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5 hours ago, Topgun said:

It's not to early to write him off, do yourself a favor, move on.

You quoted me in two threads telling me I'm wrong, yet bring no analysis to the table. Why post if the content is just going to be trash again and again?

Edited by Jyeatbvg
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7 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

You quoted me in two threads telling me I'm wrong, yet bring no analysis to the table. Why post if the content is just going to be trash again and again?

 

I don't think the guy was out of line.  Just using common sense.  You don't need fancy analysis to see that Miggy is old.  And the Tigers line-up and rotation has turned to crap with few exceptions.  They will be the favorites to claim the AL Central's cellar this year most likely.  Even if Miggy has a comeback year who is he going to drive in?  Who is going to drive him in?  Where is the incentive to push yourself when you are 25 games out by July?

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7 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

I don't think the guy was out of line.  Just using common sense.  You don't need fancy analysis to see that Miggy is old.  And the Tigers line-up and rotation has turned to crap with few exceptions.  They will be the favorites to claim the AL Central's cellar this year most likely.  Even if Miggy has a comeback year who is he going to drive in?  Who is going to drive him in?  Where is the incentive to push yourself when you are 25 games out by July?

Common sense tells me if I can get a guy late who will get me "earlier" production, I take him regardless of what his situation is. He's currently ranked 133 in ESPN's early ranking, and it's doubtful he'll rise much more than that as we approach the season. You and the other guy can do your thing, but I think most owners wouldn't mind taking the chance on him before that. 

 

But thanks for adding some analysis. I don't think many of us are expecting early round production, but I don't think there's any doubt in my mind that he still has 30/100 upside. Chances of him getting there? Probably not high, but it's there and significant enough that I'm absolutely taking him if he's still available in the 8-9th rounds.

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I don't know how serious the back issue is, but a dead cat bounce is pretty common for guys his age.

 

Think 2008 David Ortiz, when he hit .238 at age 34.  He went on to have 7 more productive seasons after that.  Part of the beauty of being in the AL and being able to DH quite a bit.  Even Pujols had a bit of a bounce after 2013.

 

I don't think Miggy is done.  His days of being elite might be over, but I still expect him to bounce back from last season's numbers and have a better year this year. 

 

The lineup is a concern and the back is a concern, but you aren't paying full price either.  It's coming at a huge discount going into next year based on where his production could be.  You won't have to reach and may even find him falling even further than his ranking in most cases.

 

Normally spring doesn't matter at all to me, especially for a vet, but this is a guy that I think we should monitor come spring training.  Will he at least be DHing and getting his hacks in, or will he only be playing every 3rd day and getting treatment?  If he's getting his ABs and seems healthy without restrictions on the back, I'll be much more intrigued.  If he is barely playing, I may avoid.

 

Normally I like to work up projections on guys to figure out where to rank them, but it's really tough given that his K% slipped so much.  That is another red flag that I don't like.  When a guy is injured with elite plate discipline, usually the BABIP will slip, but they are still making contact at a similar rate, even if they aren't hitting the ball as hard.  Those are the guys I like to go after as bounce backs, but Miggy's K% slipped almost 4%.  Yes, the back was likely a factor, but if the bat is slowing that much, it's a huge concern.  Another reason I want to see some ABs in spring.  In the past Miggy was destroying fastballs.  Last year, he was not and they were getting blown by him far too often. 

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Miggy has got nothing going for him for anyone to take a risk and draft early. I think this is the last year he gets drafted before round 10 or goes for over $10. I see a lot of Pujols in him even though I think he runs better than Albert. Getting old, bad team, coming off injury is not a player you want to take a risk on. Also, after watching him last year you can see him getting beat on pitches he never got beat on before. 

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1 minute ago, duke of queens said:

Miggy has got nothing going for him for anyone to take a risk and draft early. I think this is the last year he gets drafted before round 10 or goes for over $10. I see a lot of Pujols in him even though I think he runs better than Albert. Getting old, bad team, coming off injury is not a player you want to take a risk on. Also, after watching him last year you can see him getting beat on pitches he never got beat on before. 

Yeah, he has nothing... just 13 out of 15 years of domination. 

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1 minute ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Yeah, he has nothing... just 13 out of 15 years of domination. 

That same thought process is what I'm hoping other guys in my league will use. He is still going to go for $25+ this year but that is a hefty price if it doesn't pan out. Who is protecting him in that lineup? Castellanos?

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10 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

That same thought process is what I'm hoping other guys in my league will use. He is still going to go for $25+ this year but that is a hefty price if it doesn't pan out. Who is protecting him in that lineup? Castellanos?

Well that's too expensive, but it's been said a few times: if you can get him 50+, go for it. Ortiz was 40 and had a great final season. Cruz is like 50 and still mashing. 34 ain't old.

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21 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Well that's too expensive, but it's been said a few times: if you can get him 50+, go for it. Ortiz was 40 and had a great final season. Cruz is like 50 and still mashing. 34 ain't old.

 

Neither of those guys had a year late in their careers as awful as Miggy's 2017.  Here are their wRC+ 2013-2017:

 

Papi: 151, 134, 139, 164, (retired)

Boomstick: 122, 137, 158, 147, 146

Miggy: 193, 148, 164, 152, 91
 

That said, yeah, it's obviously about what his draft day price is.  The industry mocks had him going in the 70s, and at that price, the downside if he gives you nothing is minimal.  In the 50s, you're talking about passing on guys like Contreras, Greinke, Jansen, and CarMart, and that's more significant.  The thing is, if the news out of spring training is at all positive, he looks healthy, and he's mashing taters left and right, that draft price is going to creep way up into the 40s and 30s.  I think 60-65 is as early as I'd go given what we know right now.

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31 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

That same thought process is what I'm hoping other guys in my league will use. He is still going to go for $25+ this year but that is a hefty price if it doesn't pan out. Who is protecting him in that lineup? Castellanos?

Are you just throwing that number out there?  Or did you actually have a draft already?

 

Fangraphs has him projected to go for $16.8 dollars on a standard mixed $260 draft, which is much more reasonable.

 

Also, those guys that fall in the 10-20 range in $ value, often slip in the draft because the elite players go for higher than their projected value, so the middle tier often goes for less in most drafts, especially older guys.  I could see Miggy going for less than $16 in most drafts.

 

If you are paying $25, it's obviously a bad investment.  We are speculating that he will go more in the $10-16 range though, especially given the responses even here on this board.  I just don't see him as a guy that people will reach for after last year, which makes him intriguing if you see him dropping or can get him for way less than he should go for.

 

 

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Yes, and old guys get injured more often, and take longer to recover.   The wRC+ tells us what happened -- the "why" is interesting, but not very compelling as a reason to believe in him in 2018.  Back injuries are huge problems for a baseball swing in a guy Miggy's age.  Like I said, I can see the case for a gamble in the 70s, but not in the 50s, and industry players tend to be better at fading superstars with name value than casual players.  I see that ADP climbing much higer unless Miggy's at the plate in a wheelchair.

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3 minutes ago, The Czar said:

Are you just throwing that number out there?  Or did you actually have a draft already?

 

Fangraphs has him projected to go for $16.8 dollars on a standard mixed $260 draft, which is much more reasonable.

 

Also, those guys that fall in the 10-20 range in $ value, often slip in the draft because the elite players go for higher than their projected value, so the middle tier often goes for less in most drafts, especially older guys.  I could see Miggy going for less than $16 in most drafts.

 

If you are paying $25, it's obviously a bad investment.  We are speculating that he will go more in the $10-16 range though, especially given the responses even here on this board.  I just don't see him as a guy that people will reach for after last year, which makes him intriguing if you see him dropping or can get him for way less than he should go for.

 

 

I am just giving my opinion on where he will go in my league that is not standard and prices for hitting are always higher than FG. We use OPS along with the standard 5 so Miggy is and has been more valuable. He went for $39 last year. I could see 15-20 in standard.

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I hate trying to catch a falling knife, and his ceiling (roughly a repeat of ‘16?) isn’t as scarce a commodity as it used to be, so he would reallllyyy need to slip before I took a shot.  First base is deep too, so there are a lot of other needs I’ll be loading up on before I would feel like I couldn’t live with the next best available 1st baseman

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38 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Neither of those guys had a year late in their careers as awful as Miggy's 2017.  Here are their wRC+ 2013-2017:

 

Papi: 151, 134, 139, 164, (retired)

Boomstick: 122, 137, 158, 147, 146

Miggy: 193, 148, 164, 152, 91
 

That said, yeah, it's obviously about what his draft day price is.  The industry mocks had him going in the 70s, and at that price, the downside if he gives you nothing is minimal.  In the 50s, you're talking about passing on guys like Contreras, Greinke, Jansen, and CarMart, and that's more significant.  The thing is, if the news out of spring training is at all positive, he looks healthy, and he's mashing taters left and right, that draft price is going to creep way up into the 40s and 30s.  I think 60-65 is as early as I'd go given what we know right now.

Good post and solid research, thanks. I will note that neither Papi or Cruz were performing at the level Miggy was performing at prior to his abysmal 2017. Even a slight regression from pre-2017 Miggy (somewhere in the high-140's WRC+) is a steal considering where he's being drafted. I think all of us, regardless of whether we like him this year or not, will agree that his 2017 was a massive anomaly. It's not like he's been regressing consistently for several years.

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From here:

 

Also, according to Statcast, no player saw a bigger disparity between the quality of his balls struck (per expected WOBA) and his results (actual WOBA).

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2 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

I think all of us, regardless of whether we like him this year or not, will agree that his 2017 was a massive anomaly. It's not like he's been regressing consistently for several years.

 

I'd agree with that, yeah.  Still, when injury / age risk comes into play, it's not always a gradual, multi-year decline a-la Pujols.  Sometimes guys just lose it.  Here's another player's wRC+ numbers heading into the late stages of his career:

 

156, 142, 155, 116, 124, 129, 129, 111, 69

 

That's Adrian Gonazlez.  Three years of elite production, then fell off a cliff in 2012, losing ~40 points of wRC+, never to be found again.  Then this last season was obviously even worse.  Another guy in his 30s with lingering health issues that he tried to play through.  Still elite talent, just not a body that can translate that talent into offensive production.

 

What you're hoping for with Miggy is more of a Beltre trajectory:

 

140, 135, 142, 135, 142, 109, 130, 138

 

If that happens, you win whether you draft him at 70 or 50, or whatever inflated price he goes at when the casual players start pushing the ADP up.  But there aren't many Beltres out there.

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Oh, forgot to mention:

 

4 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Also, according to Statcast, no player saw a bigger disparity between the quality of his balls struck (per expected WOBA) and his results (actual WOBA).

 

Aren't these conclusions suspect though given what we've learned about Detroit's screwy Statcast readings?

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

Oh, forgot to mention:

 

 

Aren't these conclusions suspect though given what we've learned about Detroit's screwy Statcast readings?

Honestly, I have no clue but they might be. I'm not big on the advanced stats stuff but figured I'd add that here for discussion. It seems that the folks at Fangraphs did their homework (as usual) and the article really pulls its weight with explanations. Take your Statcast stats with a grain of salt I guess. Maybe someone else can chime in.

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He has been injured 2/3 years, so that has to be a bit of a concern, biggest difference was in the 15 injury year, his per AB numbers were pretty good and the avg was Miggy like where last year he had over 500 plate appearances and was not very Miggy like he had not been under .290 since his rookie year, so that is a bit concerning.  

 

My guess is if you want him, you will like his price, older player, off a down/injury year?  I would say $15 would be pretty safe @czar makes a good point in that generally the mid tier guys are often where the best value is anyway.

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For those who place weight in personal issues affecting play, the following happened last year:

His wife filed for divorce 

He claimed to be extorted by his mistress when she sued for child support 

His wife changed her mind on divorce 

He publically lashed out on his home country of Venezuela, despite normally being notoriously tight lipped about such matters, to complain about the mess his country is in and to ask for his family not to be hurt and he was tired of constantly having to pay money for their protection. 

“I am only going to tell you one thing. The first advice I was given was not to get involved in politics and I never have. But right now we have to get involved, because they have kidnapped our country," Cabrera said in one video.

Cabrera also spoke of threats that had been made against him:

"They are telling me I am a pain in the a** ...  I am out here fighting for my people. You might say, ‘oh he is out here living the good life, while we are out here suffering in Venezuela.’ Like I was told by the chavistas, 'if you come to Venezuela we will break you, we will kill you.' "

Cabrera also pleaded for the safety of his family: "They only thing I will tell you is please, do not hurt my family. I am begging you."

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