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BlueJaysIn2030

Charlie Blackmon 2018 Outlook

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14 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

I have him 4th.

 

i always had him 4th after arenado but between this thread and everyone head over heels for him makes me want to grab him at 3. arenado just so safe

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On 11/28/2017 at 9:09 AM, duke of queens said:

If this were the case than Votto should not have been 2nd. 10 homers and 32 RBI for 2nd half in a band box and no pressure situations. I know there is a Votto fanboy club and I think he is an elite hitter, I just don't think he should have been in top 3. Blackmon and Arenado prob hurt each other.

 

I'd be careful using the All Star Break when trying to make a point about 1st & 2nd half splits.

 

Going by month, he hit 13 HRs & drove in 43 in July, August & Sept/Oct.

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5 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I'd be careful using the All Star Break when trying to make a point about 1st & 2nd half splits.

 

Going by month, he hit 13 HRs & drove in 43 in July, August & Sept/Oct.

Those extra 3 HRs and 11 RBIs doesn't change my point. Thanks for the prompt reply though;).

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21 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Those extra 3 HRs and 11 RBIs doesn't change my point. Thanks for the prompt reply though;).

 

Sure it does.  Over the full season, that would be 6 HRs & 22 RBIs.  That's a pretty significant difference.

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1 minute ago, 89Topps said:

 

Sure it does.  Over the full season, that would be 6 HRs & 22 RBIs.  That's a pretty significant difference.

But we are talking about a half season

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5 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

But we are talking about a half season

 

I understand that.  But, saying his 2nd half wasn't good because he only went 10 & 32 is a little disingenuous, when he really went 13 & 43.

 

That would be the difference between hitting 20 & driving in 64 vs hitting 26 & driving in 86 over a full season.

 

3 HRs & in particular 11 RBIs is a fairly significant difference when you're talking about a half a baseball season.

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4 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I understand that.  But, saying his 2nd half wasn't good because he only went 10 & 32 is a little disingenuous, when he really went 13 & 43.

 

That would be the difference between hitting 20 & driving in 64 vs hitting 26 & driving in 86 over a full season.

 

3 HRs & in particular 11 RBIs is a fairly significant difference when you're talking about a half a baseball season.

The point was is it worthy of MVP and 13 and 43 in the 2nd half of a season is good, but it is not MVP caliber imo. You might have lower standards than me and that's OK but why are you arguing a point I made 5 months ago? Let's move on to this season.

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5 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

The point was is it worthy of MVP and 13 and 43 in the 2nd half of a season is good, but it is not MVP caliber imo. You might have lower standards than me and that's OK but why are you arguing a point I made 5 months ago? Let's move on to this season.

 

I just read the Blackmon thread for the first time, saw your post and thought I'd comment on it.  But, this is the Blackmon thread, so probably a misplaced conversation.

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32 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I just read the Blackmon thread for the first time, saw your post and thought I'd comment on it.  But, this is the Blackmon thread, so probably a misplaced conversation.

Most def. As for Blackmon I love him. Had him last year at $39 and plan on keeping him and hopefully get same numbers. I actually would rather he not try and steal(do to injury risk) as much as most people want as I would rather a healthy Blackmon than an extra 10 steals.

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21 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Most def. As for Blackmon I love him. Had him last year at $39 and plan on keeping him and hopefully get same numbers. I actually would rather he not try and steal(do to injury risk) as much as most people want as I would rather a healthy Blackmon than an extra 10 steals.

If Blackmon contends for an NL batting title, leads MLB in runs, and hits over 30 homers

 

I wouldn't give 2 s*** if he steals a single bag this year

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On 3/3/2018 at 4:38 PM, Arrowhead said:

I'd expect his usual 100 runs 35hr 100 RBIs 10 SB .320 AVG. definitely top ten numbers.

Blackmon is great. He seems to have an extremely safe floor, which makes him extremely valuable. Definitely like him in the top 6-8. But can we talk about this? 

These are not in fact his “usuals.” 

Last year is the only year he’s hit more than 30 HRs. Last year was the first year he’s surpassed 100 RBI (previous high was 82). 

I think it’s important to have factual conversations and realistic expectations. 

Looking at spikes in GB rate, ISO, BABIP, and the overall increase in HR last year across MLB (that I don’t expect to continue), I’d guess a return to .305/30 is likely. He’s still a GREAT player, but expectations may be a tad high.

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10 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Blackmon is great. He seems to have an extremely safe floor, which makes him extremely valuable. Definitely like him in the top 6-8. But can we talk about this? 

These are not in fact his “usuals.” 

Last year is the only year he’s hit more than 30 HRs. Last year was the first year he’s surpassed 100 RBI (previous high was 82). 

I think it’s important to have factual conversations and realistic expectations. 

Looking at spikes in GB rate, ISO, BABIP, and the overall increase in HR last year across MLB (that I don’t expect to continue), I’d guess a return to .305/30 is likely. He’s still a GREAT player, but expectations may be a tad high.

players change and progress.  so those of us who have him 3rd think last year is who he is now...and his age isnt an issue yet.  great offense, the best park...and none of his underlying/peripherals seem to disagree

 

now if he leaves coors i will drastically change my opinion...

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4 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

players change and progress.  so those of us who have him 3rd think last year is who he is now...and his age isnt an issue yet.  great offense, the best park...and none of his underlying/peripherals seem to disagree

 

now if he leaves coors i will drastically change my opinion...

I guess I took issue with “the usuals” when those aren’t anywhere close to his usuals. I also disagree with your underlying stats. 

In 2016 he hit 29 HRs with a 16.2% HR/FB, both career highs at the time. 

Last season his FB rate drops (slightly), GB rate increases 6.5% and his LD rate decreases 5.5%. And he hits MORE HRs? I’m not sure which underlying/peripherals you’re looking at, but I disagree here. I’m not buying that hitting more GBs leads to more HR due to a spike in HR/FB.

The power surge reeks of juiced ball (or whatever happened last season) and I think last season was essentially career highs across the board. 

We’re of course splitting hairs, as I see him somewhere in the 6-8 range. To me it just seems people are buying on last season, and I think that’s a mistake. 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Blackmon is great. He seems to have an extremely safe floor, which makes him extremely valuable. Definitely like him in the top 6-8. But can we talk about this? 

These are not in fact his “usuals.” 

Last year is the only year he’s hit more than 30 HRs. Last year was the first year he’s surpassed 100 RBI (previous high was 82). 

I think it’s important to have factual conversations and realistic expectations. 

Looking at spikes in GB rate, ISO, BABIP, and the overall increase in HR last year across MLB (that I don’t expect to continue), I’d guess a return to .305/30 is likely. He’s still a GREAT player, but expectations may be a tad high.

 

You make good points about the power but why .305 and not .320? Is it just because you feel the need to be conservative on such an extreme number or do you think there's a reason it drops?

 

Because this is personally my biggest thing with Blackmon. I think there's a base for the value that's similar to Altuve but I think people are too drawn to the SBs. What really makes the value similar is the ridiculous BA with the other stats.

 

So I agree, if Blackmon hits .305, he's been drafted a tad to high (even if we are splitting hairs.) But he's hit .324 and .331 the last two years so my projection is much closer to .320.

 

 

Edited by taobball
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20 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

You make good points about the power but why .305 and not .320? Is it just because you feel the need to be conservative on such an extreme number or do you think there's a reason it drops?

 

Because this is personally my biggest thing with Blackmon. I think there's a base for the value that's similar to Altuve but I think people are too drawn to the SBs. What really makes the value similar is the ridiculous BA with the other stats.

 

So I agree, if Blackmon hits .305, he's been drafted a tad to high (even if we are splitting hairs.) But he's hit .324 and .331 the last two years so my projection is much closer to .320+.

 

 

Although they’re vastly different hitters, the same reason I’m looking for an average decrease in a player like Aaron Judge (and others with huge HR spikes). Blackmon increased his launch angle last season, and it caused two things, an increase in HR AND an increase in GB (slight misses). 

I’m projecting that the juiced ball is “fixed” and if Blackmon has the exact same approach, it’ll cost him ~15 hits. Those hits would put him at .307 if he repeats last year’s ABs.

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Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

Although they’re vastly different hitters, the same reason I’m looking for an average decrease in a player like Aaron Judge (and others with huge HR spikes). Blackmon increased his launch angle last season, and it caused two things, an increase in HR AND an increase in GB (slight misses). 

I’m projecting that the juiced ball is “fixed” and if Blackmon has the exact same approach, it’ll cost him ~15 hits. Those hits would put him at .307 if he repeats last year’s ABs.

 

 

Idk, he also plays in Coors and has done it two straight years. 

 

In terms of GB%, his GB% went up to 40.7% which was a rise from the previous season but his career norm is 39.7%.

 

His FB% also stayed within a percent (37.0% in 2017 v. 37.8% the year prior), the main difference in profile coming from a reduction in LD%, which is a highly variable stat on a year to year basis.

 

What's more on the LD%, it was under his career norm, which actually suggests to me a bounceback is more likely, which would further help his BABIP.

 

I also just don't think I agree that he did change his Launch Angle all that much. I haven't gotten a ton of concrete data and I don't use Angle in terms of Degrees as much as and as such I'm unfamiliar with looking at the data, but it just doesn't look that different to me. His FB/GB/LD dispersion are all right in his career normal within +/- 1.6%. 

 

Idk, to me this is making way too much out of one small factoid when you have a mountain of evidence that says that, since Blackmon ironed out his splits in Colorado, he's clearly a .320 hitter. I think you're making a mountain out of a mole hill here. (And to be clear, I do know we're tlaking about varying degrees in the first round, I just have zero of the concerns you do. 

 

I really don't agree with any of the individual takes. 

 

17 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Last year is the only year he’s hit more than 30 HRs

 

Er... okay... that's kinda clever stat rearranging. As you put it yourself  

 

1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

In 2016 he hit 29 HRs with a 16.2% HR/FB

 

And did so in 143 Games and almost 100 fewer PAs than he had in 2017, so, while FACTUALLY accurate, in the spirit of what it means to hit for 30 HRs, the illusion that he hasn't been a 30 HR hitter the past two years is not the proper way to look at this. 

 

What's more, you keep mentioning a power spike, but you mentioned the Career high HR/FB% in 2016 and then the increased number in 2017. So I'm just a little confused as to why 2017 didn't increase the confidence that Blackmon could sustain a power stroke? To me it seems that 2017 gave us reason to solidify our belief that Blackmon can hit 30 bombs. 

Quote

 

Last season his FB rate drops (slightly), GB rate increases 6.5% and his LD rate decreases 5.5%. And he hits MORE HRs?


 

 

I'm just not really on board with this assessment overall. GBs and LDs fluctuate a lot on a season-to-season basis. They also aren't home run batted balls. Blackmon's FB%, the balls he hits for homers, went from again 37.8% to 37.0%. That's just not a change I even look at. 

 

What's more, when we're having a discussion about BA, I don't see why a Home Run reduction or anything else we've discussed here should lead me to believe that Blackmon won't hit .320. 

16 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I’m projecting that the juiced ball is “fixed” and if Blackmon has the exact same approach, it’ll cost him ~15 hits.

 

How are we judging the hits it'll cost him? This just seems almost random to me. I feel like we're also underrating the chances that some Homers may turn into Doubles, which don't hurt the BA.

 

But overall, I just literally don't share your concern. I think all the evidence is there. The HR total has eclipsed 30 HR per 700 PAs each of the last two seasons. The Batted Ball Profile is great. The Venue is immaculate. To me, this is spilled milk. 

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Posted (edited)

If the "juiced ball" is fixed then wouldn't  batting stats have to be adjusted downward for just about every player? How in the hell do you figure that out! Lol Conversely, do you bump up pitcher stats?

 

 

Edited by MrBrett

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@taobball

Don't want to quote the whole thing. You seem to be turning this into a pissing match instead of discussion, as evidence by your 1st quote of me. It was intentional on my part, in response to someone who said “he’ll hit his usual 35 HR” when he’s almost 32 and done that exactly once. Intentionally disingenuous of you to make that part of your argument with zero context. But whatever. 

As for the HRs, yeah, say half turn to doubles, half turn to outs. I’m accounting for that, but also taking into account a .371 BABIP, after a .350 the season before and a .338 career average. I expect that to fall some as well. 

I guess we’ll see. Of course any of the scenarios could happen. I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit .300 or .330. I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit 28 HR or 35. Just seems like he peaked across the board last year and buying him at 3 is paying for past stats. 

All that said, how about a friendly wager? I’ll set o/u at .310 and 30 HR. You take the over on both. If we split, it’s a tie. If either of us win both, the winner chooses the loser’s profile pic for the entire offseason next winter. You in?

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7 minutes ago, MrBrett said:

If the "juiced ball" is fixed then wouldn't  batting stats have to be adjusted downward for just about every player? How in the hell do you figure that out! Lol Conversely, do you bump up pitcher stats?

 

 

No. Some players had HR spikes last season, changing launch angles and swinging for the fences. 

And yeah, there may be a SP bump again this season. 

Lol

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I'm surprised people are valuing him higher than last year.

 

I'm a Coors whore, but what happens if the Rockies suck? Funny, no one mentions that scenario. That scenario wasn't possible last year, but sure is this year. Not that they suck, but that he's a trade deadline candidate.

 

If I use BPs projected standings, we get 78-84. Good for 4th place in the division.

 

If we look at the wildcard:

Zona (87-75)*In
St Louis (85-77)*In
Milwaukee (84-78)
San Fran (83-79)
Mets (81-81)
Phils (78-84)
Pitt (78-84)
Colorado (78-84)

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

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17 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

@taobball

Don't want to quote the whole thing. You seem to be turning this into a pissing match instead of discussion, as evidence by your 1st quote of me. It was intentional on my part, in response to someone who said “he’ll hit his usual 35 HR” when he’s almost 32 and done that exactly once. Intentionally disingenuous of you to make that part of your argument with zero context. But whatever. 

As for the HRs, yeah, say half turn to doubles, half turn to outs. I’m accounting for that, but also taking into account a .371 BABIP, after a .350 the season before and a .338 career average. I expect that to fall some as well. 

I guess we’ll see. Of course any of the scenarios could happen. I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit .300 or .330. I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit 28 HR or 35. Just seems like he peaked across the board last year and buying him at 3 is paying for past stats. 

All that said, how about a friendly wager? I’ll set o/u at .310 and 30 HR. You take the over on both. If we split, it’s a tie. If either of us win both, the winner chooses the loser’s profile pic for the entire offseason next winter. You in?

 

I don't usually wager so I'll have to consider that. I will however need a few things including a guarantee on PT to even consider it b/c I'll never take the risk of health with most of these bets. Puts me at too much of a disadvantage. 

 

In terms of the pissing match-- that wasn't the intention. Calling out a bad stat isn't meant to be a personal slight. Every person in statistics manipulates statistics to get them to say what they want. You didn't do anything too horrifying, and in the context I do understand what you were trying to say, but all I guess I'm trying to say at this point is that, to me, replying to "He'll hit his usual 35 HRs" with "He's only hit more than 30 once" is following once false value statement with another. (Relatively).

 

Again-- I fudge stats all the time. I call myself out on it too. I'm not trying to make this into a pissing contest about it. All I was trying to say was that I felt that a statement about him hitting 30 HRs more than once didn't give the full picture, so I tried to give a fuller picture. 

 

The BABIP, particularly looking at his Career Average, is problematic because using a career average assumes that the player has been the same player throughout his career. Blackmon has factually developed as a hitter-- particularly versus LHP, and this is what I look to in Blackmon.

 

Blackmon went from a bad hitter v. LHP to a good BA hitter v. LHP to a great overall v. LHP over the course of the last three years. 

 

OPS goes from .709 to .843 to .952 in those three years. 

 

This evening of splits is-- to me-- a thousand times more important than what I view to be mostly minor changes in his batted ball profile. Blackmon's been aided by the balls same as everyone, but he's evolved as a hitter to me and that's why he's had his breakout moreso than any juiced ball syndrome. 

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14 minutes ago, Light Tower Power said:

I'm surprised people are valuing him higher than last year.

 

I'm a Coors whore, but what happens if the Rockies suck? Funny, no one mentions that scenario. That scenario wasn't possible last year, but sure is this year. Not that they suck, but that he's a trade deadline candidate.

 

If I use BPs projected standings, we get 78-84. Good for 4th place in the division.

 

If we look at the wildcard:

Zona (87-75)*In
St Louis (85-77)*In
Milwaukee (84-78)
San Fran (83-79)
Mets (81-81)
Phils (78-84)
Pitt (78-84)
Colorado (78-84)

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

Isn't that tied more to their staff though? I mean I don't think many are saying that the Rockies won't score runs. Me personally, I'm for sure not worried about the line-up. Even if NONE of the exciting guys they have like Dahl, Tapia, McMahon, etc. pan out, or if neither Desmond or Story bounces back in a big way, it should still be a solid top of the line-up, and it has the potential to have a strong 1-7. 

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