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BlueJaysIn2030

Charlie Blackmon 2018 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Isn't that tied more to their staff though? I mean I don't think many are saying that the Rockies won't score runs. Me personally, I'm for sure not worried about the line-up. Even if NONE of the exciting guys they have like Dahl, Tapia, McMahon, etc. pan out, or if neither Desmond or Story bounces back in a big way, it should still be a solid top of the line-up, and it has the potential to have a strong 1-7. 

 

I don't know. I've seen some things really trashing the offense this off-season, and I think I agree now. Only Blackmon and Arrenado were above league average last year based on wRC+ that are still on the team (Mark Reynolds surprisingly the other). Although, I'm pretty sure wRC+ is flawed for Colorado players, but I always check the projected runs to help build my pitching staff and streaming targets and can never remember Colorado being so low, 730 runs scored projected. They are always top 3 in the NL, now they are 8 out of 15. And that is with Coors field (ew).

 

Colorado players will always put up great fantasy stats, but I'm starting to think the offense may not be that good when compared to the rest of the league. They absolutely need Story, Cargo and Desmond bounce backs.

 

I actually think there staff is really talented. Gray and Marquez are really good, just not good fantasy wise. They have been pitching heavy development for awhile now (A, A+ and AAA are extreme hitter parks so they are kind of battled tested) and it seems to be finally paying off and they are underrated now overall. They continue to pour money into the bullpen. Seems they really started to focus on contact management overall.

 

I think the contact management may have leaked onto the offensive side to help limit the home/road splits as they shift to more contact orientated players, but with ground ball tendencies (DJ and Desmond). Blackmon and Arenado too, but they are superstars. I'm not sure this is in their best interest, but they finally seem to be on track to figuring out how to win in such an extreme environment so we need more time for things to play out as they are kind of forced to try more out of the box ideas to fielding a winner.

 

Always love Colorado players, hope they sign Blackmon to extension that works for both sides (shift to corner). That would likely mean Arenado walks though.

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@Light Tower Power I mean you are right, I could be wrong about the offense and that would change the evaluation. I just am not as low on the offense as many others. I actually do believe Story and Desmond both have relative bouncebacks, LeMahieu is still a hitter who can threaten a .400 OBP, and like you said Blackmon and Arenado are studs.

 

I will nitpick one point or at least offer my opinion to the contrary: 

Quote

They absolutely need Story, Cargo and Desmond bounce backs.

 

They don't *absolutely need* that to happen, as I pointed out above, there's a lot of MLB-ready youth here who, especially in Coors, could make up some of that. I do definitely agree with you in the sense that, I definitely would not be ranking the offense as a whole as highly if I didn't believe in Story and Desmond, and I do believe that it is by far the most likely scenario as to how the offense rebounds, but the MLB-ready youth, specifically Tapia, Dahl, and McMahon, have the potential this year to take a lot of that slack even if those three don't bounce back. It's very conceivable that a line-up that goes 1-6 of (and I know they may move Blackmon down but just for evaluating talent of players):
Blackmon

LeMahieu (again, that 371 and 400+ OBP the last two seasons will play at the top of a lineup)

Arenado

McMahon

Dahl

Tapia

 

Is really solid. McMahon has power and BA potential (just as anyone with power had in Colorado), Dahl, if healthy, can be a 20/20 guy, and Tapia can flat out hit. Not the most damaging swing, but a guy who could be another LeMahieu type, not in so far as the walks probably, but Tapia should hit .280-.290 pretty easily and if he can put it all together and cut that K% just a little bit, he has the hit tool that can get him to a .310 type range. 

 

So I guess to me, and I'm almost completely dismissing Cargo, I see two great hitters, one good hitter, and then five other guys with potential to be realistically above average. Now if Desmond, Story, Dahl, McMahon, and Tapia all fall flat, the offense is definitely going to suck. But I'm individually high on all of them (though I mean that's just the game of Coors) and don't think that they fall flat. 

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

@Light Tower Power I mean you are right, I could be wrong about the offense and that would change the evaluation. I just am not as low on the offense as many others. I actually do believe Story and Desmond both have relative bouncebacks, LeMahieu is still a hitter who can threaten a .400 OBP, and like you said Blackmon and Arenado are studs.

 

I will nitpick one point or at least offer my opinion to the contrary: 

 

They don't *absolutely need* that to happen, as I pointed out above, there's a lot of MLB-ready youth here who, especially in Coors, could make up some of that. I do definitely agree with you in the sense that, I definitely would not be ranking the offense as a whole as highly if I didn't believe in Story and Desmond, and I do believe that it is by far the most likely scenario as to how the offense rebounds, but the MLB-ready youth, specifically Tapia, Dahl, and McMahon, have the potential this year to take a lot of that slack even if those three don't bounce back. It's very conceivable that a line-up that goes 1-6 of (and I know they may move Blackmon down but just for evaluating talent of players):
Blackmon

LeMahieu (again, that 371 and 400+ OBP the last two seasons will play at the top of a lineup)

Arenado

McMahon

Dahl

Tapia

 

Is really solid. McMahon has power and BA potential (just as anyone with power had in Colorado), Dahl, if healthy, can be a 20/20 guy, and Tapia can flat out hit. Not the most damaging swing, but a guy who could be another LeMahieu type, not in so far as the walks probably, but Tapia should hit .280-.290 pretty easily and if he can put it all together and cut that K% just a little bit, he has the hit tool that can get him to a .310 type range. 

 

So I guess to me, and I'm almost completely dismissing Cargo, I see two great hitters, one good hitter, and then five other guys with potential to be realistically above average. Now if Desmond, Story, Dahl, McMahon, and Tapia all fall flat, the offense is definitely going to suck. But I'm individually high on all of them (though I mean that's just the game of Coors) and don't think that they fall flat. 

 

Yeah, I agree, could of said it better. And like you said, they certainly have some high ceiling replacements (McMahon, Dahl, Tapia). I'd add Rodgers to the list. He's probably not ready this year, but you never know with a talent like that. That bat up at 2B/SS sounds very interesting.

 

Desmond (hand fracture) had a serious injury in preseason and Story (thumb surgery) had a serious season ending injury the year before. Desmond (calf) and Story (shoulder) also had DL stints in season. I'm buying both health bounce backs.

 

Also, regarding Blackmon. Colorado tends to be very difficult to understand front office wise, and in the past they don't sell these players off at the deadline for future value which makes you wonder in some scenarios. They may place more value on the qualifying offer plus draft pick/bonus pool increase than a deadline prospect return. Although, he plays up the middle, every team would love to have him and I'm sure would offer an excellent return.

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

I don't usually wager so I'll have to consider that. I will however need a few things including a guarantee on PT to even consider it b/c I'll never take the risk of health with most of these bets. Puts me at too much of a disadvantage. 

 

In terms of the pissing match-- that wasn't the intention. Calling out a bad stat isn't meant to be a personal slight. Every person in statistics manipulates statistics to get them to say what they want. You didn't do anything too horrifying, and in the context I do understand what you were trying to say, but all I guess I'm trying to say at this point is that, to me, replying to "He'll hit his usual 35 HRs" with "He's only hit more than 30 once" is following once false value statement with another. (Relatively).

 

Again-- I fudge stats all the time. I call myself out on it too. I'm not trying to make this into a pissing contest about it. All I was trying to say was that I felt that a statement about him hitting 30 HRs more than once didn't give the full picture, so I tried to give a fuller picture. 

 

The BABIP, particularly looking at his Career Average, is problematic because using a career average assumes that the player has been the same player throughout his career. Blackmon has factually developed as a hitter-- particularly versus LHP, and this is what I look to in Blackmon.

 

Blackmon went from a bad hitter v. LHP to a good BA hitter v. LHP to a great overall v. LHP over the course of the last three years. 

 

OPS goes from .709 to .843 to .952 in those three years. 

 

This evening of splits is-- to me-- a thousand times more important than what I view to be mostly minor changes in his batted ball profile. Blackmon's been aided by the balls same as everyone, but he's evolved as a hitter to me and that's why he's had his breakout moreso than any juiced ball syndrome. 

The BABIP jump in 2016 (from ~.335 career to .350) can be chalked up to his improvements as a hitter. The jump to .371 in 2017? I don’t think so. I’m expecting it back closer to the .345-.350 range.

As for the “wager,” fair. I’ll give you a required 150 games played and more importantly, not traded mid season. It’s all for fun. PM me if interested. 

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

No. Some players had HR spikes last season, changing launch angles and swinging for the fences. 

And yeah, there may be a SP bump again this season. 

Lol

I don't believe Blackmon will have as good of a season as last even if the juiced ball returns. If you're right about a less juiced ball and you've  figured out correctly the player's most and least affected you should have a good fantasy season. Good luck!

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7 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Just signed a 6 year deal. Monster news for dynasty/keeper owners, and re-drafters will no longer have to worry about him being dealt away from Coors

 

https://twitter.com/Rockies/status/981606768877879296

wonder what the dollars are

 

I thought it was going to be a tricky negotiation 

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4 hr already

 

can he finish 1st overall again this year?

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Posted (edited)

What a stupid franchise the Rockies are. Signing a 31-year old with a career away slash line of .265/.314/.436 thru his age 37 season when you already can't find playing time for youngsters like David Dahl and Ramiel Tapia. This after the idiotic Carlos Gonzalez deal. Dumb team.

Edited by Baseball Batman

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10 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

wonder what the dollars are

 

I thought it was going to be a tricky negotiation 

 

Here you go on the details:

 

Quote

Rockies signed OF Charlie Blackmon to a six-year, $108 million contract extension with player options for 2022 and 2023.

 

The new deal keeps Blackmon's $14 million arbitration-negotiated salary intact for the 2018 season (via a $12 million salary and $2 million signing bonus) and will pay him $21 million per year from 2019-2021. Blackmon will then have a $20 million player option for 2022 and a $10 million player option for 2023, subject to various bonuses and escalators. $108 million is a big guarantee for a guy who turns 32 years old in July, but Blackmon has put up monstrous numbers at Coors Field over the last three-plus seasons and the Rockies have now ensured that he won't walk as a free agent this winter. Blackmon is a .346/.406/.566 career hitter at Coors and a .265/.314/.436 hitter everywhere else.

 

Source: Hardball Talk on NBCSports.com      Apr 4 - 3:01 PM

 

 

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Posted (edited)

 

3 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Here you go on the details:

 

 

 

I have to say it's a pretty brilliant move on the part of his agent and himself.....after seeing the horror show that some free agents went through this past off-season along with him being older than some of the guys who had trouble securing preferable deals and he has the Coors stigma.

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Baseball Batman said:

What a stupid franchise the Rockies are. Signing a 31-year old with a career away slash line of .265/.314/.436 thru his age 37 season when you already can't find playing time for youngsters like David Dahl and Ramiel Tapia. This after the idiotic Carlos Gonzalez deal. Dumb team.

 

A lot of people just assume Rockies can't hit away from Coors. Charlie Blackmon's last 160 road games:

 

194 hits

.294 ave

.514 slugging

39 doubles

3 triples

34 homers

85 rbi 

112 runs

15 steals (10 caught stealing)

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=7859&position=OF&splitArr=8&strgroup=season&type=1&startDate=2016-4-4&endDate=2018-4-4&filter=

 

Those are all star numbers. He gets a monstrous boost from Coors, but he's turned into a lethal hitter no matter where he is. 

Edited by Red Sox Nation
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1 minute ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

A lot of people just assume Rockies can't hit away from Coors. Charlie Blackmon's last 160 road games:

 

194 hits

.294 ave

.514 slugging

39 doubles

3 triples

34 homers

85 rbi 

112 runs

15 steals (10 caught stealing)

 

Those are all star numbers. He gets a monstrous boost from Coors, but he's turned into a lethal hitter no matter where he is. 

he already has 4 bombs on the road to start this season...his power only seems to be getting better

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8 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

A lot of people just assume Rockies can't hit away from Coors. Charlie Blackmon's last 160 road games:

 

194 hits

.294 ave

.514 slugging

39 doubles

3 triples

34 homers

85 rbi 

112 runs

15 steals (10 caught stealing) is. 

 

Yep, he enjoyed excellent numbers on the road in 2016. And then, in 2017, his road numbers were decidedly average (.276 AVG, .784 OPS). The Rockies' roster is a cluster-phuck of older players whom they haven't won with and who are blocking youngsters from everyday playing time. What's next? A 5-year deal for LeMahieu to ensure Brendan Rodgers toils away in the Minors like Tapia and Dahl have?

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6 minutes ago, Baseball Batman said:

 

Yep, he enjoyed excellent numbers on the road in 2016. And then, in 2017, his road numbers were decidedly average (.276 AVG, .784 OPS). The Rockies' roster is a cluster-phuck of older players whom they haven't won with and who are blocking youngsters from everyday playing time. What's next? A 5-year deal for LeMahieu to ensure Brendan Rodgers toils away in the Minors like Tapia and Dahl have?

id say there's 5 percent change LeMahieu is kept

 

he would have to crack 20 homers and win the batting title to be back

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

A lot of people just assume Rockies can't hit away from Coors. Charlie Blackmon's last 160 road games:

 

194 hits

.294 ave

.514 slugging

39 doubles

3 triples

34 homers

85 rbi 

112 runs

15 steals (10 caught stealing)

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=7859&position=OF&splitArr=8&strgroup=season&type=1&startDate=2016-4-4&endDate=2018-4-4&filter=

 

Those are all star numbers. He gets a monstrous boost from Coors, but he's turned into a lethal hitter no matter where he is. 

Fair points. I think the larger point @Baseball Batman was trying to make was giving a guy, even as great as Blackmon, a 6 year deal in his age 32 season isn’t a great idea. Ask the Angels about that contract they gave Pujols. Think Cards are happy they didn’t pay it? Look at Miggy. Look at CarGo. Kemp. Braun.

Blackmon’s contract is not an albatross like some of the others, but this contract is probably not going to look great when Blackmon is 36 and has two more player options. 

It seems that in a sense that this is the price of doing business, particularly for a team who feels as if they’re contending. But I tend to lean more Cardinals (and NE Patriots, for that matter) and philosophically rather give up a guy a year early than hold too long. 

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2 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

id say there's 5 percent change LeMahieu is kept

 

he would have to crack 20 homers and win the batting title to be back

 

 

You would think. But then what was the percentage that the Rockies would bring back Carlos Gonzalez, ensuring that talented youngsters like Ryan McMahon, Ramiel Tapia and David Dahl would toil away on the bench or in the Minors in order to find playing time for a 32-year old who appears in steep decline?

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1 minute ago, Baseball Batman said:

You would think. But then what was the percentage that the Rockies would bring back Carlos Gonzalez, ensuring that talented youngsters like Ryan McMahon, Ramiel Tapia and David Dahl would toil away on the bench or in the Minors in order to find playing time for a 32-year old who appears in steep decline?

I think Rodgers will replace Story and Tapia/Dahl will get to play the corners.

 

Parra and Cargo are going to be FA's after this year

 

I think the only guy really getting road blocked is McMahon and if DJ goes McMahon will get that job

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Gotta say as a Blackmon dynasty owner this is pretty much the best case possible.  Just have to hope they can lockup Nolan before 2020 and get Rodgers in the everyday lineup next season. 

 

Hope this is the last season we see Desmond, Cargo & Parra stinking up the OF.

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Blackmon may not have great career road splits.... but the thing is, he still looks like he’s improving. All his production this year has come on the road so far. I’m impressed.

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