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BlueJaysIn2030

Charlie Blackmon 2018 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

What a total bum.  Obviously you can't drop him, but it's really to the point now where you have to bench him away from Coors

 

He's gotten 3 HRs and 1 SB all season long at Coors and 11 HRs and 3 SB away. If anything, you bench him when he's at Coors.

But like the other guy said above, he's ok to be benched everywhere right now...

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He’ll get scorching hot again.  Buy where you can.  We all saw this with Goldschmidt recently.  Walk rate exactly same, K rate exactly same, BABIP down .40+ points from what it’s been last few years.  Hard hit, line drives etc all the same.  By time weekends over Rockies will have played 10 less home games than road.  Stats will even out.  Buy low where you can.

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9 hours ago, mehtavg2000 said:

 

I think you bench him at Coors at well.  Guy has 3 HRs and 3 steals in 2 months!

 

I hear you, but all of those HRs on the road came in April.  During the past two month period you are referring to (from May 6th on), I'm looking at just how unbelievably terrible he's been on the road.

 

Per Fangraphs, here's Blackmon's poor total numbers (both home and road) since May 6th.

image.png.b143d2b6790257336f4dd5ea91e0dd11.png

 

Here's Blackmon's home numbers since May 6th.  Are those numbers what you are hoping for from a first round pick?  No, but he is still hitting for a good average and scoring a lot of runs at Coors.  Unless you're in a really shallow leagues, those home numbers are probably still better than waiver wire caliber. 

image.png.5a37feae017c0ac63e2188b092010044.png

 

Now here's Blackmon's mind-boggling bad road numbers since May 6th. 

image.png.2c4037a42e7a38e52ee7d7c222bcbab0.png

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I'll say this much about Blackmon: he was very smart to sign that extension in spring training because as a free agent this offseason he wouldn't have been able to get even a quarter of that money, following a year in which he's been significantly worse than a replacement level player.

 

Per Baseball-reference, Blackmon has the 9th worst WAR in all of baseball at -1.0 WAR.  I know WAR isn't a fantasy category and includes defense which has no effect in fantasy, but it's unreal that we're talking about a first round fantasy player as having one of the ten worst WARs in all of baseball at the midpoint of the season.  (And Blackmon isn't that far away from the 2nd worst WAR either, which belong to Alcides Escobar at -1.3 WAR.  Crush Davis will be pretty tough to catch for worst at -2.1 WAR.)

 

Source: https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=LaMUk

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Goldy style turnaround coming??? Fingers crossed this is the beginning of a hot streak!!

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On 6/30/2018 at 12:11 PM, FootballFan101 said:

I'll say this much about Blackmon: he was very smart to sign that extension in spring training because as a free agent this offseason he wouldn't have been able to get even a quarter of that money, following a year in which he's been significantly worse than a replacement level player.

 

Per Baseball-reference, Blackmon has the 9th worst WAR in all of baseball at -1.0 WAR.  I know WAR isn't a fantasy category and includes defense which has no effect in fantasy, but it's unreal that we're talking about a first round fantasy player as having one of the ten worst WARs in all of baseball at the midpoint of the season.  (And Blackmon isn't that far away from the 2nd worst WAR either, which belong to Alcides Escobar at -1.3 WAR.  Crush Davis will be pretty tough to catch for worst at -2.1 WAR.)

 

Source: https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=LaMUk

It's because his defense sucks

 

hes been a decent player after tonight's knock he's probably near top 50. People talking like he's Gary Sanchez or something 

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Another homer tonight. Really hoping this is the beginning of the long-awaited hot streak

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I finally benched the guy this week for the first time all season.  But I'll still take it if this is the start of a monster.  

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Posted (edited)

3 homers in his past 5 - could be heating up?

Edited by largeshot

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Is it me or are the Rockies facing an insane amount of Lefty Starting Pitchers this year?  Every time I go to set a lineup, I feel like they are facing a lefty.  It may have to do with some of his struggles this season as his splits appear to be abnormally weighted to Left Handed pitching.

 

2018 - 40% of at bats vs. LH

2017 - 33% of at bats vs. LH

2016 - 30% of at bats vs. LH

 

I'd think this trends back towards the mean, and he is white hot in the 2nd half.

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2 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

Is it me or are the Rockies facing an insane amount of Lefty Starting Pitchers this year?  Every time I go to set a lineup, I feel like they are facing a lefty.  It may have to do with some of his struggles this season as his splits appear to be abnormally weighted to Left Handed pitching.

 

2018 - 40% of at bats vs. LH

2017 - 33% of at bats vs. LH

2016 - 30% of at bats vs. LH

 

I'd think this trends back towards the mean, and he is white hot in the 2nd half.

Image result for let us pray

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Don't look now!!! 

 

13 for his last 30 ABs. 4 HR/8 RBI/9 Runs

Image result for charlie blackmon

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like the Arenado thread just a couple of weeks ago,  It was funny hearing people saying this guy was a complete bust. 

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5 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

like the Arenado thread just a couple of weeks ago,  It was funny hearing people saying this guy was a complete bust. 

 

That's the time to buy.

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2 minutes ago, oban14 said:

 

That's the time to buy.

very true - that window is probably closed.  Owners were probably looking for any signs of life and he's been great the last 10 days.

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On 7/14/2018 at 10:04 AM, largeshot said:

I am okay with this new strategy of just hitting a dinger every other day.

 

What would it take for this bum to actually do something?  He's been absolutely brutal since the start of May.

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

What would it take for this bum to actually do something?  He's been absolutely brutal since the start of May.

My stats page shows .315 AVG, .968 OPS, 19 R, 6 HR over the last 30 days, and that stretch includes the ASB. I'm not overly thrilled with the 0 SB over that 30 day span, but still at least a tier higher than "bum."

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, fatbob166 said:

My stats page shows .315 AVG, .968 OPS, 19 R, 6 HR over the last 30 days, and that stretch includes the ASB. I'm not overly thrilled with the 0 SB over that 30 day span, but still at least a tier higher than "bum."

 

Over the past 3 months, Blackmon is batting .277, 10 HR, 3 SB, 55 R, 29 RBI.  For a guy that was a universal first round pick and was the #1 overall fantasy player last year, that is undeniably atrocious.

Edited by FootballFan101

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I mean...most reasonable people would have expected some level of regression this season considering he is 32 years old coming off a career year.

 

He’s still been productive if not quite worth his ADP. Another hot streak could turn things around pretty quickly.

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, largeshot said:

I mean...most reasonable people would have expected some level of regression this season considering he is 32 years old coming off a career year.

 

He’s still been productive if not quite worth his ADP. Another hot streak could turn things around pretty quickly.

 

Some of level of regression would have meant regressing to his 2016 season, where he still put up first round value but not #1 overall value like he did last year.

 

Over the last 3 months (half the season), he hasn't even been a top 100 player.  For a guy that was a universal first round pick, he's been the biggest bust I can remember in recent memory.

Edited by FootballFan101

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31 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Over the last 3 months (half the season), he hasn't even been a top 100 player.  For a guy that was a universal first round pick, he's been the biggest bust I can remember in recent memory.

 

Lol that's a strong statement. He's coming off a July with a 1.052 OPS.  Through ups and downs is playing at a .281 ave, 121 run, 31 homer, 72 rbi, 7 steal pace. You want to say he shouldn't be a top 20ish pick next year? Sure, nothing wrong with saying that. His adp may even drop lower than that. But if a guy hits .280+ with 30+ homers and leads the majors in runs, not sure how you can call him a bust. 

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58 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

Lol that's a strong statement. He's coming off a July with a 1.052 OPS.  Through ups and downs is playing at a .281 ave, 121 run, 31 homer, 72 rbi, 7 steal pace. You want to say he shouldn't be a top 20ish pick next year? Sure, nothing wrong with saying that. His adp may even drop lower than that. But if a guy hits .280+ with 30+ homers and leads the majors in runs, not sure how you can call him a bust. 

It's all relative to ADP.  Blackmon was a universal first round pick, not a mid-round pick.  For a first round pick, he has unquestionably been a bust

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