• Announcements

    • Patrick Bateman

      Check out the new Rotoworld Beta Site!   11/14/2018

      Rotoworld has been the industry leader in fantasy news and analysis for years, but it was time for a much-needed facelift!  While our around-the-clock, comprehensive coverage will remain the same, the new Rotoworld design will be sleeker, easier to navigate, more video-friendly and will finally be mobile-optimized.    That’s right, you can finally stop pinching the screens on your phones to read our content!  Right now we’re in the beta phase of our launch, and it’s still a work-in-progress, but we’d love for you to check out our soon-to-be new digs, and let us know what you think: https://beta.rotoworld.com.    And then please use the Contact Us button to give us feedback!  
Sign in to follow this  
BlueJaysIn2030

Charlie Blackmon 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

It's all relative to ADP.  Blackmon was a universal first round pick, not a mid-round pick.  For a first round pick, he has unquestionably been a bust

To say that he’s one of the biggest busts In recent memory is laughable though. This year alone Kris Bryant and Correa are much bigger busts. They had slightly lower ADP’s but have been much worse than Charlie. I agree he regressed more than people thought/hoped but there’s still a good amount of games left and he could still finish .290+ 110+ Runs 30hr. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

It's all relative to ADP.  Blackmon was a universal first round pick, not a mid-round pick.  For a first round pick, he has unquestionably been a bust

 

Disagree. I don't believe that a guy playing at a .280+, 30+ homer, 120+ run pace is a bust. A guy like that shouldn't be a reason for anyone to lose a league. Other top 12 picks not returning close to their value: Harper, Altuve, T.Turner, Kershaw, Goldschmidt. Guys that didn't go too far after Blackmon: Bryant, Correa, Votto. So, for you to call him "the biggest bust in recent memory" is a flat out unreasonable statement. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, tywalson said:

To say that he’s one of the biggest busts In recent memory is laughable though. This year alone Kris Bryant and Correa are much bigger busts. They had slightly lower ADP’s but have been much worse than Charlie. I agree he regressed more than people thought/hoped but there’s still a good amount of games left and he could still finish .290+ 110+ Runs 30hr. 

 

Bryant and Correa were second round picks.   And they have been busts because of injury.

 

Maybe calling him one of the biggest busts in recent memory is a bit extreme, but Blackmon has unquestionably been a bust relative to his ADP and his production the past 4 years.  And his numbers since the start of May are downright atrocious for a first round pick.

Edited by FootballFan101

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Bryant and Correa were second round picks.   And they have been busts because of injury.

 

Maybe calling him one of the biggest busts in recent memory is a bit extreme, but Blackmon has unquestionably been a bust relative to his ADP and his production the past 4 years.  And his numbers since the start of May are downright atrocious for a first round pick.

Had this debate on here a few times. Very rarely does any player taken in the 1st round return the numbers you paid for. Usually they drop off a bit, unless it's Trout. Blackmon might end up with back of the 1st/early 2nd numbers which is still incredible and hardly "bust" territory. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Had this debate on here a few times. Very rarely does any player taken in the 1st round return the numbers you paid for. Usually they drop off a bit, unless it's Trout. Blackmon might end up with back of the 1st/early 2nd numbers which is still incredible and hardly "bust" territory. 

 

It would take a heck of a finish for him to finish with the late 1st/early 2nd round value.  Right now he's producing late 4th/early 5th round value overall, and since April, it's been way worse than that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

It would take a heck of a finish for him to finish with the late 1st/early 2nd round value.  Right now he's producing late 4th/early 5th round value overall, and since April, it's been way worse than that.

Just looked over at his FG page.

As of August 5: 21HR, 5SB, 82R, 49RBI, .281AVG 

ZiPS: 31HR, 120R, 75RBI, 9SB, .300AVG

Looking at his splits:

Mar/Apr: 9HR, 22R, 17RBI, .281AVG (96AB)
May: 3HR, 22R, 9RBI, .272AVG (103AB)
June: 2HR, 16R, 9RBI, .261AVG (115AB)
July: 7HR, 20R, 14RBI, .351AVG (94AB)
 

1st half: 19HR, 73R, 45RBI, .287AVG (366AB)
2nd half: 2HR, 9R, 4RBI, .241AVG (58AB)

So looks like he was pretty damn good in Mar/Apr and July, had a slump in June, and was OK in May. August is 16AB, so nothing to sniff at.

If he finishes with 31HR and 120R, with a .300AVG he's not in that late 1st/early 2nd zone? Only thing missing in 5SB and a RBI, which he can't really do much for when the Rockies had a rough patch offensively. 

 

Like, I fully understand what you're saying... people drafted him around 6th overall and expected something like 30HR/10SB/.300/120R/100RBI, but that was never a guarantee... it never is. Like, he's still a top 40 player right now, and they have 29 games at home coming up. You're reaching here, he's on pace, even with the crummy month, to finish with the numbers Bryant put up last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is Blackmon ever going to do anything ever again?

 

Can't believe I traded Gerrit Cole for this bum in May, thinking I was selling high on Cole and buying low on Blackmon after his horrible May.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/5/2018 at 11:40 AM, Red Sox Nation said:

 

Lol that's a strong statement. He's coming off a July with a 1.052 OPS.  Through ups and downs is playing at a .281 ave, 121 run, 31 homer, 72 rbi, 7 steal pace. You want to say he shouldn't be a top 20ish pick next year? Sure, nothing wrong with saying that. His adp may even drop lower than that. But if a guy hits .280+ with 30+ homers and leads the majors in runs, not sure how you can call him a bust. 

 

The problem with those projections is that it includes April when Blackmon's clearly not the same player he used to be back then.  That would be like projecting Pujols's career home run total by taking his average season including his time with the Cardinals.  Maybe there's some injury that Blackmon has been playing through that's really affecting him, maybe he stopped taking steroids after he got the big contract extension and they wore off by the end of April, or maybe he just naturally declined at only 32 years old, but to me, it seems far more likely to expect him to play rest of season like he has the past 3 months rather than like he did in April.  Considering he's been awful for over 3 months now, it's hard for me to just write this off as a normal slump.  Even getting to 25 HR I think is going to be a stretch, let alone 30.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/9/2018 at 6:27 PM, FootballFan101 said:

Is Blackmon ever going to do anything ever again?

 

Can't believe I traded Gerrit Cole for this bum in May, thinking I was selling high on Cole and buying low on Blackmon after his horrible May.

You made a trade that looks bad so thats Blackmon's fault?

 

Fwiw, several of the statements you made about him on this page are factually inaccurate.

For example:

"Blackmon has unquestionably been a bust relative to his ADP and his production the past 4 years"

 

Well that's just wrong. He already has more HRs this year (21) than he did in the entire season in both 2014 and 2015. His OPS is higher than both of those years, as is his wRC+. His production is actually exceeding what he did 3and 4 years ago. If you expected him to repeat his 2017 career year, then that's on you. The projection systems certainly didn't think he would match that production.

 

The fact is, Blackmon has not been that detrimental to any fantasy team's success, and certainly is not outright killing anyone's team.

For reference, in my leagues only Trout, Betts, and, Arenado had a 1st rd ADP and are currently ranked inside the top 12. Its like this every year. A first rounder performing like a ~3rd/4th rounder isn't the end of the world.

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, cs3 said:

You made a trade that looks bad so thats Blackmon's fault?

 

Fwiw, several of the statements you made about him on this page are factually inaccurate.

For example:

"Blackmon has unquestionably been a bust relative to his ADP and his production the past 4 years"

 

Well that's just wrong. He already has more HRs this year (21) than he did in the entire season in both 2014 and 2015. His OPS is higher than both of those years, as is his wRC+. His production is actually exceeding what he did 3and 4 years ago. If you expected him to repeat his 2017 career year, then that's on you. The projection systems certainly didn't think he would match that production.

 

The fact is, Blackmon has not been that detrimental to any fantasy team's success, and certainly is not outright killing anyone's team.

For reference, in my leagues only Trout, Betts, and, Arenado had a 1st rd ADP and are currently ranked inside the top 12. Its like this every year. A first rounder performing like a ~3rd/4th rounder isn't the end of the world.

 

 

 

Blackmon stole 28 and 43 bases in 2014 and 2015 respectively and has only stolen 6 all year this year, so while his OPS may be higher, his fantasy value certainly has been WAY lower.  I was not expecting a repeat of 2017, but I was expecting something similar to 2016 given that he was only 31 years old (turning 32 in July), an age where most players are still in their prime, and he gets to play half his game's in the best hitter's park in baseball.

 

As far as the trade goes, obviously I made a horrendous trade, but I feel like there's a lot of people that would have traded Cole for Blackmon back in May.  Blackmon was a universal first round while Cole was a 6th or 7th round pick in most leagues.  (In fact, one person in my league posted a message complaining that the trade was too lopsided in my favor and should get vetoed.)

 

And Blackmon has not performed like a ~3rd or 4th rounder since I made the trade in May.  He's performed like a 10th rounder since then.

Edited by FootballFan101

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nobody expected him to steal more than 15 bags this year. Most people assumed there'd be another drop in steals (as there has been each of the past couple seasons) down to the 10-12 range.

 

The trade wasn't even bad. At all. I'm not sure why you think it was. 

 

Anyway the point is that Blackmon might be slightly underperforming expectation, but certainly not enough to ruin anyone's fantasy season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, cs3 said:

Nobody expected him to steal more than 15 bags this year. Most people assumed there'd be another drop in steals (as there has been each of the past couple seasons) down to the 10-12 range.

 

The trade wasn't even bad. At all. I'm not sure why you think it was. 

 

Anyway the point is that Blackmon might be slightly underperforming expectation, but certainly not enough to ruin anyone's fantasy season.

 

Cole's been a top 5 fantasy pitcher, putting up 2nd round value this year.  Forgive me for not being happy that a guy who put up 1st round value in 2016, 1st round value (#1 overall value) in 2017, and 1st round value in April this year suddenly only puts up 10th round value rest of season after I trade for him in May.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

Cole's been a top 5 fantasy pitcher, putting up 2nd round value this year.

No, not since May he hasn't been. 

 

And July was by far Blackmons best month this year. He OPS'd over 1.000 and put up a 163 wRC+ to go along with 20 runs, a .351 avg, and 7 HR. Im not sure why you think hes been awful since May because he hasn't been.

 

Edited by cs3
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Last 30 Days:

25/97 14 3 5 1 .258 .743

 

Yes, 5 RBI 

Edited by joeg414
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, cs3 said:

Im not sure why you think hes been awful since May because he hasn't been.

 

 

Since May 5th (a span of over 3 months): .271 AVG, 57 R, 10 HR, 29 RBI, 4 SB

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=7859&position=OF&splitArr=&strgroup=season&statgroup=1&startDate=2018-05-05&endDate=2018-08-11&filter=&statType=player&autoPt=true&players=&pg=0&pageItems=30&sort=-1,1

 

If we were talking about a late-round pick, that would be pretty good production.  For a guy that was a universal 1st round pick and who put up 1st round value in 2016, 1st round value in 2017, and 1st round value in April 2018, that's incredibly disappointing production.  Not sure how's there's even a debate about that.

Edited by FootballFan101

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

You're over thinking things.

On the season hes still on pace for:

116 R, 30 HR, 9 SB, 68 RBI, .271

Last year Kris Bryant was the #18 overall player with an almost identical line 

(112 R, 29 HR, 7 SB, 73 RBI, )

For Blackmont that's a step back from last year for sure, but like I said, its not killing anyones team. Thats still a top 25 hitter.

 

It sucks that the timing of your trade was terrible, but that happens.

 

Edited by cs3
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really hope Blackmon can heat up down the stretch... he's been in a bit of a slump lately.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Zig Zag said:

Really hope Blackmon can heat up down the stretch... he's been in a bit of a slump lately.

 

Bit of a slump?  He's been pure garbage for 3 and a 1/2 months.  This is way too long of a stretch to be considered a slump.  I don't know what happened to him.  Maybe there's some injury that Blackmon has been playing through that's really affecting him, maybe he stopped taking steroids after he got the big contract extension and they wore off by the end of April, or maybe he just naturally declined at only 32 years old, but he's clearly not anywhere near the same player he used to be anymore.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Bit of a slump?  He's been pure garbage for 3 and a 1/2 months.  This is way too long of a stretch to be considered a slump.  I don't know what happened to him.  Maybe there's some injury that Blackmon has been playing through that's really affecting him, maybe he stopped taking steroids after he got the big contract extension and they wore off by the end of April, or maybe he just naturally declined at only 32 years old, but he's clearly not anywhere near the same player he used to be anymore.

 

Well his July was ridiculous but other then that I do see where you're coming from.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Zig Zag said:

 

Well his July was ridiculous but other then that I do see where you're coming from.

 

 

 

I picked up Mallex Smith off the waiver wire in May with very low expectations just because I needed speed.  Smith has been a better fantasy player than Blackmon since then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/12/2018 at 6:01 PM, cs3 said:

You're over thinking things.

On the season hes still on pace for:

116 R, 30 HR, 9 SB, 68 RBI, .271

Last year Kris Bryant was the #18 overall player with an almost identical line 

(112 R, 29 HR, 7 SB, 73 RBI, )

For Blackmont that's a step back from last year for sure, but like I said, its not killing anyones team. Thats still a top 25 hitter.

 

It sucks that the timing of your trade was terrible, but that happens.

 

 

How am I overthinking things?  It's really very simple: Since the beginning of May, Blackmon has been pure garbage, ranking outside the top 100 during than span of 3 and 1/2 months.  That's way too long of a stretch to be considered a normal slump.

 

In competitive leagues, one player underperforming so badly can definitely be the difference between winning and losing a league.  I don't see how that's even debatable.  (In my roto money league where I traded for Blackmon in May, I'm 2 points out of first place.  If Blackmon was putting even 75% of last year's numbers, I'd be in first place easily.)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.