Fuzzy_Slippers

Brian Dozier 2018 Outlook

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What do you guys make of Dozier? He had another really good season in 2017. Looking at his numbers, I see that his numbers seem to vary quite a bit. 

 

Here's his BB% the last 4 seasons:

 

2014 - 12.6%

2015 - 8.7%

2016 - 8.8%

2017 - 11.1%

 

Not sure what to expect next season, but I would be happy with a 10% walk rate. I'm pretty high on Dozier this season. He's in his prime years and has been very durable. 

 

I'm not a big fan of ESPN's rankings, but they have him at #30. I would be pretty thrilled to draft him in the 3rd round. 

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Dozier is pretty good at waiting for his pitch.  Even though he is primarily a pull hitter, he should still get you a .255-.260ish average with similar counting stats to last year.  He's probably still capable of going on a super streak for a month or so reminiscent of his 2nd half a couple of years ago.

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He's the #2 2b, in my opinion. I have ahead of Ramirez in OBP leagues, but behind him in BA leagues.

 

I play OBP.

Edited by tonycpsu
Format-shaming removed.

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On 12/24/2017 at 12:48 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

He's the #2 2b, in my opinion. I have ahead of Ramirez in OBP leagues, but behind him in BA leagues.

 

I play OBP.

 

I'd still take Ramirez even in OBP. Keep in mind Dozier has never been a high BABIP hitter and this past year he had the highest in a longtime and he's only two years removed from being close to a .240 hitter. If Dozier hits .240 with a 9-10% BB%, Ramirez is going to destroy him in OBP and I think that's pretty strongly within the range of outcomes.

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49 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I'd still take Ramirez even in OBP. Keep in mind Dozier has never been a high BABIP hitter and this past year he had the highest in a longtime and he's only two years removed from being close to a .240 hitter. If Dozier hits .240 with a 9-10% BB%, Ramirez is going to destroy him in OBP and I think that's pretty strongly within the range of outcomes.

The tao hast spoken. Thanks! I value your analysis quite a lot. 

It doesn't matter in my league anyway since Ramirez will be kept into next year, but Dozier will be back in the draft pool. I think he is underrated.

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Fantrax has him projected for a .343 OBP with 107 runs, 36 homers, 94 RBI, and 16 stolen bases.

That would be pretty damn good for an OF 1... nonetheless a second basemen.

I watched him pretty closely last year, and I think he's a flat out stud. Feels like a threat to pop one every at bat, and if he gets on, he's more than happy to run. 

 

gets a little underrated because he plays for the Twins and is built like a Lego. 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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15 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Fantrax has him projected for a .343 OBP with 107 runs, 36 homers, 94 RBI, and 16 stolen bases.

That would be pretty damn good for an OF 1... nonetheless a second basemen.

I watched him pretty closely last year, and I think he's a flat out stud. Feels like a threat to pop one every at bat, and if he gets on, he's more than happy to run. 

 

gets a little underrated because he plays for the Twins and is built like a Lego. 

Those projections seem about right. Steamer thinks he will hit 31 homers, but the rest of the numbers are pretty similar. I'm a sucker for anyone that walks more than 10% of the time and strikes out less than 20% of the time.

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What do you guys think he will hit, average wise? He hit .268 in 2016 and .269 in 2017. Prior to 2016, he never hit over .244. His hard% has gone up nearly 4% since 2015, so that could account for the average increase. I think he will end up somewhere in the .255 - 260 range.

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18 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

What do you guys think he will hit, average wise? He hit .268 in 2016 and .269 in 2017. Prior to 2016, he never hit over .244. His hard% has gone up nearly 4% since 2015, so that could account for the average increase. I think he will end up somewhere in the .255 - 260 range.

 

I think .255-.260 is the right projectable range, but I think after two straight good years people forget that there's some pretty large pitfalls in Dozier's BA. If you would've asked me prior to 2017 what the chances were that Dozier hits a .300 BABIP I would say roughly the same that he hits about a .255-.260 BABIP, which would make his average closer to that .244, which I think is super possible.

 

Dozier doesn't hit a ton of LDs (19.0% in 2017, 15.9% in 2016), not terrible but below average. He hits a fair number of Pop-Ups (27 Pop-Ups, 15th highest total in baseball). He holds the 3rd Highest Pull% and the 5th Lowest Oppo%. His Hard% is good, but not by any means elite. His 34.1% Hard% on Fangraphs was 68th in baseball. 

 

Like this is an extreme blind resume, but take this as an example of what I'm talking about:

 

LD / GB / FB% 

Player A:

19.0% / 38.4% /  42.6%

Player B: 

16.3% / 41.5% / 42.2%

 

Pop-Up%

Player A: 

13.4%

Player B: 

15.5% 

 

Pull / Oppo

Player A:

50.4% / 17.6%

Player B: 

50.3% / 19.8%

 

Soft / Hard

Player A: 

15.9% / 34.1%

Player B:

18.5% / 36.7%

 

So in terms of batted ball profile/BABIP metrics, Player A hit slightly more LDs, popped up slightly less, used the Opposite field a little less, and had a slightly lower Soft% but also a slightly lower Hard%. But in general these profiles are very close to one another. 

 

BABIP:

Player A: 

.300

Player B: 

.224

 

And finally, Player A would be of course Brian Dozier, Player B would be Rougned Odor. 

 

Now obviously the former has a much better eye and I'm not saying that they are equivalent, but when you look at some of the raw metrics, many of the same pitfalls that caused Odor's BABIP to plummet are very present in Dozier and always have been in Dozier. That's why even after having a .280 and .300 BABIP over the last two years, his career average is still .276, and he has, in his career, as many years under .270 as over .270. If he has a .270 BABIP again he'll be close to a .240 Hitter. And I think it's very much in the realm of possibility between his Pull Tendency and pop-up tendency to have a really bad BABIP... and after all, I don't think it's that crazy to say that I still think there's a chance he does something like 2015 when he went .236 with 28 HRs and 12 SBs. I think that's very much within the realm of possibility for Dozier. 

 

Every player has downside, I just think Dozier has a couple more extra pitfalls particularly in BA where he could not just be a neutral p layer but a player that hurts you. Which doesn't mean I hate Dozier, but if he's going in like the first three rounds I'll probably pass. Fourth round is pretty competitive too, so that's a close one for me. 

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One thing to keep in mind is that Dozier has really improved over the last few years. He wasn't someone that came up and immediately found great success. As a Twins fan, I can tell you he's worked hard to improve his game over the past few seasons, so I wouldn't worry about the low BA from a few years ago as much as I would in another case

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8 minutes ago, Hollywood42 said:

One thing to keep in mind is that Dozier has really improved over the last few years. He wasn't someone that came up and immediately found great success. As a Twins fan, I can tell you he's worked hard to improve his game over the past few seasons, so I wouldn't worry about the low BA from a few years ago as much as I would in another case

 

Sure he's improved. If he hadn't improved than we'd be talking about .230-.240 and not .260. But he still pulls the ball a ton. He still doesn't use the opposite field. And he still pops-up a more-than-decent amount. That's not saying he's not a good hitter, but those things do hurt a BABIP, or at least create potential issues and potential pit falls.=. Look at Mookie from last year-- these are many of the same issues he had just in Dozier's case they worked out. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

Sure he's improved. If he hadn't improved than we'd be talking about .230-.240 and not .260. But he still pulls the ball a ton. He still doesn't use the opposite field. And he still pops-up a more-than-decent amount. That's not saying he's not a good hitter, but those things do hurt a BABIP, or at least create potential issues and potential pit falls.=. Look at Mookie from last year-- these are many of the same issues he had just in Dozier's case they worked out. 

 

I hear ya. It frustrates me a lot sometimes that he pulls everything. But his path to where he is now should make you consider him differently than a player that went from doing nothing relevant one year to having 2 great years. Just thought that was worth mentioning as another thing to consider

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Just now, Hollywood42 said:

 

I hear ya. It frustrates me a lot sometimes that he pulls everything. But his path to where he is now should make you consider him differently than a player that went from doing nothing relevant one year to having 2 great years. Just thought that was worth mentioning as another thing to consider

 

But I dont' think that that's what Dozier did. For one I think he was very relevant before 2016. Just not *as* relevant. I'm not talking about diminishing his improvements. He has improved. I'm not grading him tho on any curve based on his Path. He over performed (tho I cringe to use it, *luck*) what I would expect his BABIP to be based on his 2017 Batted Ball data. If he were to, say, under perform by about the same degree in 2018, I think he could much more easily hit .240 than say, a bunch of other hitters-- most hitters at his ADP range. 

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16 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

But I dont' think that that's what Dozier did. For one I think he was very relevant before 2016. Just not *as* relevant. I'm not talking about diminishing his improvements. He has improved. I'm not grading him tho on any curve based on his Path. He over performed (tho I cringe to use it, *luck*) what I would expect his BABIP to be based on his 2017 Batted Ball data. If he were to, say, under perform by about the same degree in 2018, I think he could much more easily hit .240 than say, a bunch of other hitters-- most hitters at his ADP range. 

 

All my point was is that Dozier has steadily improved since making it to the majors. That's something that should make you feel better about only being 2 years removed from being a .235-.245 hitter if you're looking at drafting him. Not saying he'll hit .270 like he did last year or improve on it, but you shouldn't expect him to drop all the way back down to the .240 range either

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Sure there is average risk with Dozier, but he has an elite floor in regards to his counting numbers. He should be a lock for 25-30 HR and 12-18 SB. In addition, he should be leading off once again this year which should lead to a ton of runs even with the low average because he walks so much. He's had 100 runs 4 years in a row, would be hard pressed to find a reason why that wouldn't happen again. In his low average years he still was getting 70+ RBI as well (90+ the last 2 years with improved average). I will gladly take the average risk plunge in the 3rd round for the virtual guarantee in the rest of his numbers.

 

The upside is he maintains a .270 average and finishes in the top 20 overall with 2B eligibility. The downside is he hits .240 with 25 HR / 12 SB / 100 R / 70 RBI. That is an elite floor.

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I don't know if he's ever offered an explanation for his mediocre starts the last few seasons. Would make it a much easier decision to draft him with an early pick if his production was more evenly split for my H2H format. 

 

Trading for him around the all star break was the way to go in the past couple of seasons. 

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Posted (edited)

lol.  he slipped to the mid 4th round in my league so i had to look up his Spring stats.....  4/25 w/ 0 HR

 

dude start conditioning in Jan so you actually hit something in April! :rolleyes:

Edited by midlip

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5 hours ago, midlip said:

lol.  he slipped to the mid 4th round in my league so i had to look up his Spring stats.....  4/25 w/ 0 HR

 

dude start conditioning in Jan so you actually hit something in April! :rolleyes:

 

Ouch.  Hate slow starts.  Not only does it hurt you in that time frame, but it deflates trade value, and it sometimes makes you hold onto a guy, thinking he'll come out of it, only to discover that he never does and you hung onto turds the whole season.  

 

Come out of the box on fire this year, Dozier!

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4 minutes ago, countseth said:

 

Ouch.  Hate slow starts.  Not only does it hurt you in that time frame, but it deflates trade value, and it sometimes makes you hold onto a guy, thinking he'll come out of it, only to discover that he never does and you hung onto turds the whole season.  

 

Come out of the box on fire this year, Dozier!

my one hope is that he's opening against the Orioles and Pirates pitching staffs

 

I am stuck between choosing this guy or Donaldson and it's like picking my poison 

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Jeez, the guy's scored over 100 R four straight years, averaged over 30 HR, 85 RBI, and 18 SB. Not to mention consistently healthy with at least 598 ABs over that stretch. All at 2B. But let's all get really worried about his spring training numbers. :rolleyes:

 

Tough crowd. 

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26 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

Jeez, the guy's scored over 100 R four straight years, averaged over 30 HR, 85 RBI, and 18 SB. Not to mention consistently healthy with at least 598 ABs over that stretch. All at 2B. But let's all get really worried about his spring training numbers. :rolleyes:

 

Tough crowd. 

 

Come on dude... it's because he's a NOTORIOUSLY slow starter, so it would be nice to see something different for a change... I have faith stats will be there in the end but going through 6-8 weeks of crap is going to be brutal in H2H

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Pick your poison. If you know his season totals are very consistent over multiple years, and that he's a bit of a slow starter, that has to mean he must be a pretty hot hitter down the stretch. I'd much rather have him be hot when I need it more late in the season and playoffs than in April. 

 

And I think it's quite an over simplification to assume if he started working out earlier he'd be hot the whole year and put up Mike Trout numbers. 

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Yeah, I don't think his season-end numbers will be down.  And in H2H, it's better to have him cold to start and hot to end.  

 

I play almost exclusively roto, though, so the start does matter.

 

But the one league I do have him in is h2h, so I guess I can't personally complain.

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