Fuzzy_Slippers

Luis Severino 2018 Outlook

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What a fantastic 2017 season. 10.71 K/9 and 2.37 BB/9? Simply superb stuff. He threw 193.1 innings last season so he should eclipse 200 in 2018. Would you guys feel comfortable with him as your SP1 or would you want an ace with more of a track record? 

 

ESPN has him projected as the SP10 and is ranked #39, putting him in the 4th round. 

 

Fantasypros has him as the SP11 and is ranked #45, also putting him in the 4th round. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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I have him in that same group with Syndergaard/DeGrom/Carrasco but his age probably gives him a half notch edge there.  I've seen him rated as highly as #6.  Great offense.  Just have to see who they hire for manager/pitching coach to help Sev take the steps to the next level.

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What a year he had. Judge gets a ton of the credit for how far the NYY went last year and rightfully so- but Severino was the 2nd big reason why they had a great year. He was a certified ace last year. If you would have told me at the end of 2016 we'd be talking about him as a top 10 sp going into 2018 I'd have said you're either drunk nuts or both. 

            xFIP  SIERA  GB/FB  Swstr%  K %    k-bb%

2016  4.04   4.26     1.45      9.2          21.2     13.1

2017  3.04   3.25     1.65    13.0         29.4      22.9

Just huge improvements across the board. He dominated in the AL East threw 190 innings I'd be perfectly fine with him as an sp1. Depends on your risk aversion I guess some might be hesitant because its a 2nd year player but I'm a believer in his talent. Last year I kind of was hesitant to believe he was that good at least through the first 3 or so months because he was pretty pedestrian in 2016- but I'm not making that mistake again-  he's an ace. 

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13 hours ago, DidiFan said:

What a year he had. Judge gets a ton of the credit for how far the NYY went last year and rightfully so- but Severino was the 2nd big reason why they had a great year. He was a certified ace last year. If you would have told me at the end of 2016 we'd be talking about him as a top 10 sp going into 2018 I'd have said you're either drunk nuts or both. 

            xFIP  SIERA  GB/FB  Swstr%  K %    k-bb%

2016  4.04   4.26     1.45      9.2          21.2     13.1

2017  3.04   3.25     1.65    13.0         29.4      22.9

Just huge improvements across the board. He dominated in the AL East threw 190 innings I'd be perfectly fine with him as an sp1. Depends on your risk aversion I guess some might be hesitant because its a 2nd year player but I'm a believer in his talent. Last year I kind of was hesitant to believe he was that good at least through the first 3 or so months because he was pretty pedestrian in 2016- but I'm not making that mistake again-  he's an ace. 

 

He will be entering his 4th year in the bigs this season. He was great during a short stint in his rookie year, then the league adjusted to him, and he adjusted to the adjustment which resulted in a huge year. There's really no legitimate reason to suggest a big regression this year. The league had an entire season to figure him out and it never happened. Passes the eye test, peripherals are elite, will be playing on a good offensive team, what is there not to like here? He will be drafted in the deGrom, Syndergaard, Bumgarner, Darvish, Strasburg area - all guys that have much more legitimate reasons to possibly deliver below expectations.

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4 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

He will be entering his 4th year in the bigs this season. He was great during a short stint in his rookie year, then the league adjusted to him, and he adjusted to the adjustment which resulted in a huge year. There's really no legitimate reason to suggest a big regression this year. The league had an entire season to figure him out and it never happened. Passes the eye test, peripherals are elite, will be playing on a good offensive team, what is there not to like here? He will be drafted in the deGrom, Syndergaard, Bumgarner, Darvish, Strasburg area - all guys that have much more legitimate reasons to possibly deliver below expectations.

Yeah I should re-phrase that I meant 2nd full year. But I'm with you 100%. He's an sp1 for me. But like @Fuzzy_Slipperssaid some may be hesitant to roll with him as an sp 1 and instead opt for guys with more of a track record. I think of those guys you mentioned I'd take Severino over Stras- Stras is great but he is always a big injury risk. And this is probably a contrarian take but I'd actually rather have Severino than Madbum. I think its pretty clear Severino is on the way up while there are some major red flags with MadBum especially after coming off that shoulder injury. 

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41 minutes ago, DidiFan said:

Yeah I should re-phrase that I meant 2nd full year. But I'm with you 100%. He's an sp1 for me. But like @Fuzzy_Slipperssaid some may be hesitant to roll with him as an sp 1 and instead opt for guys with more of a track record. I think of those guys you mentioned I'd take Severino over Stras- Stras is great but he is always a big injury risk. And this is probably a contrarian take but I'd actually rather have Severino than Madbum. I think its pretty clear Severino is on the way up while there are some major red flags with MadBum especially after coming off that shoulder injury. 

 

Yeah, I'm not saying Severino is better than every one of those guys, but the anti-Severino argument is basically: He will regress because this is first time he was elite. You can have much stronger negative arguments against the others I mentioned:

 

deGrom: pedestrian ERA last year

Syndergaard: injury risk

Bumgarner: injury risk, declined a bit when healthy

Darvish: finished terribly last year and ended with pedestrian numbers

Strasburg: injury risk

 

If you look at the upside its probably about the same for all of these guys (200 innings, 230+ K, sub 3 ERA, ~1.00 WHIP), so I don't see the upside argument going against Severino either. 

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How is Baumgarner an injury risk? Doubt he rides that many dirt bikes this year. 2017 was the first year he had less than 31 starts since 2010.

 

A few innings pitched through the years but he will be only 29 mid-season in 2018.

Edited by Low and Away
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18 hours ago, Low and Away said:

How is Baumgarner an injury risk? Doubt he rides that many dirt bikes this year. 2017 was the first year he had less than 31 starts since 2010.

 

A few innings pitched through the years but he will be only 29 mid-season in 2018.

 

He missed a few months with a shoulder injury, and also was not elite when he was pitching. There's certainly some risk there. But not to get too much into Bumgarner on a Severino thread, my main argument was that you can make a stronger case for Bumgarner to decline than you can for Severino, yet more people will likely view Bumgarner as the much safer pick.

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19 hours ago, Low and Away said:

How is Baumgarner an injury risk? Doubt he rides that many dirt bikes this year. 2017 was the first year he had less than 31 starts since 2010.

 

A few innings pitched through the years but he will be only 29 mid-season in 2018.

Anyone who had had a shoulder injury like his will tell you that he is now at risk for more shoulder injuries. I'm using the term injury very loosely, but it could absolutely result in a few missed starts. Injury risk in the way we often use it here (IE: he's always hurt) is an exaggeration though, I agree.

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I play in a yahoo league and last year Severinio maintained the RP eligibility which ended up being a significant advantage. Does anyone know if he is going to maintain that eligibility for the year (or how that works in general)?

 

Thanks in advance

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He will be just a SP.  He started 31 games and had zero relief appearances.

 

To be a reliever he has to have at least five RP to become eligible again.

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Has he had TJ yet? Seems too good to be true to expect 200 IPs  without any injury bumps/scares. 

 

Hes definitely an SP 1 but Not without significant risk.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Magoo said:

Has he had TJ yet? Seems too good to be true to expect 200 IPs  without any injury bumps/scares. 

 

Hes definitely an SP 1 but Not without significant risk.

 

 

TJ seems especially likely with how hard he throws. He's high on the list of possible candidates, imo.

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On 11/30/2017 at 8:36 AM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 Would you guys feel comfortable with him as your SP1 or would you want an ace with more of a track record? 

 

 

Fantasypros has him as the SP11 and is ranked #45, also putting him in the 4th round. 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if he finishes inside the top 12 SP, but I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting him as my SP1. At least not in roto. In H2H its probably fine because you can make up for elite innings with quantity.

 

If I somehow ended up with Severino as my first SP, I'd really want to be sure to grab another one of the high end SP2's/borderline aces - an Archer, Darvish, CMart, or Greinke. 

 

Fwiw, he's going off the board as the #7 SP in NFBC which seems really aggressive to me.

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On 12/1/2017 at 4:26 PM, Low and Away said:

How is Baumgarner an injury risk? Doubt he rides that many dirt bikes this year. 2017 was the first year he had less than 31 starts since 2010.

 

A few innings pitched through the years but he will be only 29 mid-season in 2018.

I agree.  The shoulder injury shouldn't be a recurring issue because it had nothing to do with mechanics and such.  

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On 2/7/2018 at 1:00 PM, SpecialFNK said:

should there be any concern with Severino's inconsistent WHIP in 2017?

April- 0.78 (1.33 BB/9)

May - 1.31 (2.88 BB/9)

June- 1.06 (2.45 BB/9)

July- 1.17 (2.58 BB/9)

August- 1.11 (2.93 BB/9)

September- 0.70 (1.80 BB/9)

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=15890&position=P&season=2017

 

What's inconsistent?  One month where he was above league average and the rest of the season below league average or significantly well below?  Zero concerns, at all, on that.

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1 hour ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

What's inconsistent?  One month where he was above league average and the rest of the season below league average or significantly well below?  Zero concerns, at all, on that.

1.31 is bad. 1.17 is not elite.

when drafting a pitcher where Severio is being drafted I would rather be sure that that pitcher is going to be elite, but this type of inconsistent numbers could make one wonder whether a different pitcher would be a better choice at that draft pick.

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Kluber had a 1.25 WHIP in April and a 2.67 in May (May was just 1 start)

Sale had a 1.35 WHIP in Sept

Stras had a 1.21 in July and a 1.19 in June

Kershaw had a 1.22 WHIP in Sept.

 

Looking at an individual month and determining that it is not elite is not really all that helpful.

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32 minutes ago, kenag122002 said:

Kluber had a 1.25 WHIP in April and a 2.67 in May (May was just 1 start)

Sale had a 1.35 WHIP in Sept

Stras had a 1.21 in July and a 1.19 in June

Kershaw had a 1.22 WHIP in Sept.

 

Looking at an individual month and determining that it is not elite is not really all that helpful.

 

it was more than 1 month. these pitchers also have a history to prove that they are elite.

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Seems like you may be still missing the point.  One month is not a large enough sample size to make sweeping conclusions from, especially when you have the full season's data available.

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As much as I like Sev I was surprised to see his early ADP of 32.  Wow.   Although he could live up to that draft spot I thought he could have been had a few rounds later.

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