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Luis Severino 2018 Outlook

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15 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

Seems like you may be still missing the point.  One month is not a large enough sample size to make sweeping conclusions from, especially when you have the full season's data available.

 

THIS x1,000 and precisely my point.  Looking at one month is just foolish - and even the second month (1.17) isn't terrible.  His 1.04 overall season WHIP is fantastic AND Elite.  

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9 hours ago, B&F said:

As much as I like Sev I was surprised to see his early ADP of 32.  Wow.   Although he could live up to that draft spot I thought he could have been had a few rounds later.

 

People are drafting him higher based upon the idea that he's 24 (going to be by season start), had a SP1 season last year, is playing on one of the better teams in baseball, and is going to improve on the numbers he posted last year.  I have him in a keeper league and for the first time, going to keep 2 starting pitchers (keep 8).

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Luis Severino took big steps forward in 2017 and was elite, and I think people should be more comfortable with him as their #1 fantasy starter going into 2018 for a bunch of reasons. He does everything you want out of a fantasy ace, he strikes out a ton of guys (10.71 K/9), he doesn't get killed by walks (2.37 BB/9), the long ball wasn't too much of an issue (0.98 HR/9), and he gets groundballs (50.6% groundball rate). It culminated in a 2.98 ERA in 193.1 innings last year, and was supported by a very impressive 3.07 FIP and 3.04 xFIP. That FIP ranked 7th best in the majors among qualified pitchers and the xFIP ranked 4th best. I want to point out that the combination of at least a K per inning plus a 50% groundball rate or better was only equaled in 2017 by Jimmy Nelson, Charlie Morton, Zack Godley, and Carlos Martinez. Severino K's more guys and walks less than all of those guys so he's the premier K and GB SP in baseball. The dude is legit! What made the difference for him in 2017? Let's take a bit of a deep dive.

Severino has 3 pitches, a Fastball that averaged 97.6 MPH, a Slider he throws in the upper 80's, and a changeup that is also thrown in the upper 80's. And in 2017, all three pitches were well above average. His Fastball was worth 6.4 runs above average and that ranked 30th best in the majors among those with at least 130 innings pitched. That ranked ahead of guys like Gerrit Cole, Carlos Martinez, and Yu Darvish. The fastball elicited a very solid 10.77% whiff rate. Now the Slider is where Severino really shines as it was worth 16.8 runs above average which is just crazy! That was the 6th best slider in the majors last year among those with at least 130 innings pitched, with just Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Archer, Ervin Santana, and surprisingly Jhoulys Chacin ahead of him. The slider had an amazing 17.36% whiff rate which shows how dominant it was. Lastly, his changeup which took major strides this year and rounded out his arsenal, it was worth 9.6 runs above average. That ranked 7th best in baseball among those with at least 130 innings pitched, ahead of names like Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Corey Kluber. The changeup also had a very good whiff rate of 12.28% (was a below average 8.53% in 2016). Overall, that's 3 pitches that are all top 30 in the majors, two of them being top 10 quality offerings, that's nasty to face!

Let's take a look at some of his plate discipline numbers to get even more hyped:

- Severino’s Swinging-Strike% was 13%. Among all pitchers who pitched at least 130 innings, that ranked in a tie for 11th best in baseball with Stephen Strasburg and ranked ahead of names like James Paxton and Yu Darvish and Zack Greinke.

- Severino’s overall contact rate was 73.5%. Among all pitchers who pitched at least 130 innings, that ranked 13th best in the majors. That was ahead of names like Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish, and James Paxton.

- Severino's Zone-Contact rate was 82.3% Among all pitchers who pitched at least 130 innings, that ranked 12th best in baseball, ahead of names like Corey Kluber, Clayton Kershaw, and James Paxton
 

- Severino's out-of-zone Contact rate was 55.2%. Among all pitchers who pitched at least 130 innings, that ranked 10th best in baseball and was ahead of names like Chris Sale, Yu Darvish, and Zack Greinke.

This shows how tough of a time MLB hitters had against Severino, and also illustrates how elite his potential is. He’s got consistent top 10/top 15 skills plus he gets groundballs which gives him top 5 overall upside. Really like Severino, and at his current ADP (NFBC ADP of 33) I think he could return some positive value since I could easily see him as the safest bet to rank 5th best among SPs behind the big 4 of Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, and Kluber. I like Severino’s chances of being the next best, ahead of Bumgarner, and Strasburg who are going ahead of him.

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If he can get more consistent with his changeup (varies between a filthy pitch and a pitch that barely moves at all) he can be even better than last year. 

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This is one of those guys that you kick yourself for not taking a chance on earlier last year, lol...at least I do. I'm always skeptical of early season success for SPs that seems to come out of nowhere, and Severino was no exception. The crazy thing is he went undrafted in my 12-team keeper league, and next year we're going to start tagging keepers with the round they were drafted in. Well, as an undrafted FA, his owner (not me) will be able to keep him for a 23rd round pick (we have 30 rounds), lol...a potential top 5-7 SP for a 23rd round pick. Ugh. 

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18 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

This is one of those guys that you kick yourself for not taking a chance on earlier last year, lol...at least I do. I'm always skeptical of early season success for SPs that seems to come out of nowhere, and Severino was no exception. The crazy thing is he went undrafted in my 12-team keeper league, and next year we're going to start tagging keepers with the round they were drafted in. Well, as an undrafted FA, his owner (not me) will be able to keep him for a 23rd round pick (we have 30 rounds), lol...a potential top 5-7 SP for a 23rd round pick. Ugh. 

 

Man, I hate that rule. We do the same thing but anyone that wasn't drafted gets thrown back into the draft. We do the "tagging" players thing to reward good drafting, not lucky adds.

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Now that is dominance. GCSO 5 hits, 1 walk, 10 ks against the Astros. 

 

He hit 100mph in the 9th inning.

 

Hot damn.

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your 2018 AL Cy Young winner: Luís Severino

 

 

 

TOO SOON???!!!!!??!?!?! nahhhhh

Edited by ZChronicNebula

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1 hour ago, ZChronicNebula said:

your 2018 AL Cy Young winner: Luís Severino

 

 

 

TOO SOON???!!!!!??!?!?! nahhhhh

will he be drafted ahead ahead of kluber sale...and dare i say kershaw next year?

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17 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

will he be drafted ahead ahead of kluber sale...and dare i say kershaw next year?

Why not!?!? #upside

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I love this kid so much. Will be able to keep him for cheap for many years to come.

Do not trade him, he will have a special career barring injury.

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47 IP, 28H, 11R, 11ER, 2HR, 12BB, 52K, 0.85 WHIP, .172 BAA, 2.11 ERA

 

Most Starts w/ 1 or 0 Runs Allowed Since 2017:

Severino  20
Scherzer  18
Sale  18

 

He's the youngest of all the "aces". If you were to start a baseball franchise today with one player it would be this guy.

Edited by ZChronicNebula
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34 minutes ago, ZChronicNebula said:

47 IP, 28H, 11R, 11ER, 2HR, 12BB, 52K, 0.85 WHIP, .172 BAA, 2.11 ERA

 

Most Starts w/ 1 or 0 Runs Allowed Since 2017:

Severino  20
Scherzer  18
Sale  18

 

He's the youngest of all the "aces". If you were to start a baseball franchise today with one player it would be this guy.

 

faeaa09902398d57877937f3de0fc9c9.jpg

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12 hours ago, ZChronicNebula said:

47 IP, 28H, 11R, 11ER, 2HR, 12BB, 52K, 0.85 WHIP, .172 BAA, 2.11 ERA

 

Most Starts w/ 1 or 0 Runs Allowed Since 2017:

Severino  20
Scherzer  18
Sale  18

 

He's the youngest of all the "aces". If you were to start a baseball franchise today with one player it would be this guy.

Nah, he only plays one of 5 days. Trout, Judge, Harper, Betts, and a few others would go ahead of him

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4 hours ago, Nickdoggmoneycash said:

Nah, he only plays one of 5 days. Trout, Judge, Harper, Betts, and a few others would go ahead of him

It comes down to one game.. who ya got: the elite batter or the Ace? Gimme Sev!

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2 hours ago, ZChronicNebula said:

It comes down to one game.. who ya got: the elite batter or the Ace? Gimme Sev!

 

first you say "If you were to start a baseball franchise today with one player it would be this guy." and then you turn around and go with the above quote.

 

which is it?

 

pitchers are just too volatile and injury prone to pass on everyday players such as Trout, Betts, Harper, Arenado .... etc

 

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36 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

first you say "If you were to start a baseball franchise today with one player it would be this guy." and then you turn around and go with the above quote.

 

which is it?

 

pitchers are just too volatile and injury prone to pass on everyday players such as Trout, Betts, Harper, Arenado .... etc

 

 

What he meant to say is if you start a baseball franchise today, what pitcher and what hitter would you want.

 

Severino and Betts ain’t bad. 

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8 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

What he meant to say is if you start a baseball franchise today, what pitcher and what hitter would you want.

 

Severino and Betts ain’t bad. 

This guy gets it.

Edited by ZChronicNebula

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