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Fuzzy_Slippers

Luis Severino 2018 Outlook

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Well he finished last year with an ERA and FIP around 3.00, not 2.25.  It's just very hard to keep an ERA under 2.50 in the AL.  My guess is Bauer, Verlander and Cole all regress a little bit too.

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5 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Well he finished last year with an ERA and FIP around 3.00, not 2.25.  It's just very hard to keep an ERA under 2.50 in the AL.  My guess is Bauer, Verlander and Cole all regress a little bit too.

its KC

 

something must be wrong.... and its the 3rd start in a row.

 

how was his velocity today?

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6 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

its KC

 

something must be wrong.... and its the 3rd start in a row.

 

how was his velocity today?

Velocity looked fine. He's missing his spots and the fastball is lacking movement not velocity. 

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Unacceptable. It’s KC. And his 3rd stinker in a row. He’s either fried (dead arm?) or hurt (broken arm?). 

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2 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Velocity looked fine. He's missing his spots and the fastball is lacking movement not velocity. 

 

thanks bigblue.  was outside and missed the first half of the game

 

 

2 minutes ago, dychead said:

Unacceptable. It’s KC. And his 3rd stinker in a row. He’s either fried (dead arm?) or hurt (broken arm?). 

based on what bigblue said his velocity isnt down, so i doubt its deadarm/injury

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If the velocity is still up then it appears no injury (not a doctor). Hopefully just a rough month. Severino is only 24 and working through just his 2nd full season in the bigs. Could just be dealing with some adversity he hasn't dealt with before and we will see how he responds. 

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Fatigue isn't all about velocity.  It can probably affect location. 

 

It is possible he also has lost his slider somehow.

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I said as much in the gameday thread, but I thing it's fatigue and the reason you don't see any loss in velocity is that he's compensating by altering his release point. A change in release point would also be indicative of a delta to spin rate which directly correlates to late movement on the ball.

 

Just my opinion having watched most of his starts this year and last. He's tired and it's beginning to be mentally fatiguing as well for his fantasy owners.

 

He's young, he'll have to face adversity like this and learn how to adapt and react.

 

 

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I watched the game, the announcers said he's opening up too soon, something he worked on with Pedro Martinez in the offseason, time to give him a call.

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3 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

You guys focus too much on the opponent.

 

They're all major league hitters.

 

Some major league hitters are significantly better than others. When you're an ace, you're not expected to struggle against lineups chalk full of the latter in back to back games.

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SP3 the ROS, just watch. He’s gonna try too hard and his fastball will flatten out and his slider will hang. He’ll press early in games and give up dumb runs. Mental makeup needs some work and he could prove to be elite IF he can flip this around. I doubt he can. DL stint wouldn’t be too bad...

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I'm out of it in a keeper league with some studs getting too costly for me so just sent a boatload to a guy for Severino and Eloy.  Arenado, Bauer and Hicks couldn't get the job done for me this year.  Hope he can repeat his early 2018 in the future.

Edited by boomzdaddy

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After today, Severino has a cake schedule.

 

As it stands right now:

 

8/8 - White Sox

8/13 - Mets

8/18 - Blue Jays

8/25 - Orioles

8/30 - Tigers

9/4 - Athletics

9/10 - Twins

9/16 - Blue Jays

9/22 - Orioles

9/27 - Rays

 

 

The most difficult opponent would have to be the Athletics. The Jays and Rays are decent, but the rest all all below-average in terms of wRC+ and wOBA. The schedule could change, but Sevy should be able to finish the season strong.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
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On 7/28/2018 at 4:38 PM, azeri98 said:

I watched the game, the announcers said he's opening up too soon, something he worked on with Pedro Martinez in the offseason, time to give him a call.

 

Not until the off season again.  Pedro is employed by the Red Sox and they don't mind off season help but during the division race?  Not so much.

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I haven't noticed him opening up any sooner than usual and that's one of the things I look out for with him since it was his biggest mechanical adjustment since entering the bigs. 

 

Big difference for Severino this year has been his changeup. It was a + pitch for him last year and a legitimate weapon against LHH. It had a ~3 weighted pitch value per Fangraphs and this year its weighted pitch value is under 0. Makes him more predictable and if his fastball command is a touch off or his slider is hanging it really limits his options and I think that's what's gotten him in trouble more than anything in this recent stretch. 

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Yeah right about now, it is panic mode here in NY.  Starting rotation is a shambles.  Best SP is having command issues.  The Fat Boy is in a slump...Gray sucks, etc.  Look clueless the past 3 games.  And tomorrow a rookie making his first start is going to start...ouch.

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8 minutes ago, einstein2u said:

put him on dl already

I could be wrong, but I do not think he is hurt.  The Yanks would be nuts to mess with him if he was.  I just think he is having some command issues.  And they literally are down to scraping the bottom of the barrel for starters and have no one better, so it is not like they have the luxury of claiming a phantom injury for 10 days.  Like I said, the wheels have fallen off the past 3 days and it is panic mode here in NY.  Sloppy defense, bad starting and relief pitching.  Barring some quick turn around or the Red Sox going on a bad streak, the Division race is over and they will be concentrating on holding on to a wild card the way things are going.

Edited by secretagentman

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Just now, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He only had one bad inning. He has an easy schedule the rest of the way. 

He got lit up by KC previously...has been lit up his past few starts, with something like 8 HRs allowed.  He is just off and assuming he is indeed healthy, they better right whatever mechanical issue or flaw he has in a hurry.  If Severino goes down\becomes ineffective for an extended period of time in their current state, they would be lucky to hang onto a Wild Card spot.  You can not win when your starters can not keep you in ball games consistently.

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So...should we be worried yet?

 

He does have an easy schedule the rest of the way but he also just shat the bed vs. KC and TB, soooo...

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13 minutes ago, largeshot said:

So...should we be worried yet?

 

He does have an easy schedule the rest of the way but he also just shat the bed vs. KC and TB, soooo...

 

I say no; it has to be mechanical issues that messed up with his command. Don't know about last night but the start before he was hitting 99MPH, if he is hurt, he won't be able to hit it that high. 

 

Just hope that the Yanks pitching coach can find the issue and adjust it in a hurry; Yanks and the rest of us Severino owners need him!

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