IlliniGuy76

Cody Bellinger 2018 Outlook

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Came onto the scene like gangbusters & pretty much continued raking throughout his inaugural MLB season.  Do we see his power production continue, or downturn/regression?  Would love to hear thoughts on this.

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I'm in love here. His swing is unreal, creates a ton of bat speed. Had a year now to gain experience, wouldn't be surprised at all to see the K rate drop some. Put me in the power continues to develop category

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He might have been exposed a little in the playoffs but then again that was against the best teams in baseball, i don't know if he has as good a year but i think it will be pretty close

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I have a hard time saying someone was "exposed" by such a small sample in the playoffs.  He was facing some of the best off-speed pitchers in the game -- Keuchel, McCullers, Morton...  In the regular season, he's going to be feasting on a much more palatable array of pitchers.  A sophomore slump isn't out of the question, but I'm putting more stock in what he did during the regular season.

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I'm interested in how he responds to the coming "he sucked in playoffs" narrative. And he did, no doubt, and was visibly upset by it. He's amazing, but he's still super young, and prone to confidence lows like any other young 20s person is. And what a year he had beyond just stat stuff, dude was a ROY on a WS team in a crazy huge market. That's a lot to process in a short period of time.

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Nowhere to go but up for the NL ROY!

 

Edited by lavaman

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I seriously wouldn’t be surprised if he finished above someone like Judge on the player rater in standard 5x5. 

 

Top 20 possible, prob more like top 20-40 range. 

 

90/35/100/10/.260 is what I’m guessing. 

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I have all my chips on this guy but wouldn't be surprised with an underwhelming season.

 

My prediction: .250 80/30/80/10

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I think we see a regression. I love this kid, and I hope he'll be a cornerstone keeper for me...but I think he comes back a little as a sophomore. 

 

I'm thinking .250-80-34-95-12. 

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I think that with a year's experience under his belt, he learns that strike zone better and has a better season as far as batting average goes. Home Runs should be close to the same, as that swing is very legit.

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Prob what makes him elite for me are those double digit SB. The AVG is mostly neutral for a good fantasy team, and HR are a dime a dozen. 

 

His counting stats (RBI and R) and his bonus SB move him from a top 50 to a semi-top 20 for me. 

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On 12/16/2017 at 1:42 PM, countseth said:

Prob what makes him elite for me are those double digit SB. The AVG is mostly neutral for a good fantasy team, and HR are a dime a dozen. 

 

His counting stats (RBI and R) and his bonus SB move him from a top 50 to a semi-top 20 for me. 

 

Bellinger stole ten bases this year, and has never stolen more than ten in any minor league season (he's not a SB threat).  I think ten is going to be the high end that you're going to see him steal.  Frankly, this should play very little in how you rank him.

Edited by IlliniGuy76

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50 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

(he's not a SB threat)

 

Well, except for the part where he went 10/13 on the basepaths in the majors.  Paul Goldschmidt never stole 10 in the minors, but I don't hear anyone saying he's not a SB threat.  Every scouting report I read about Bellinger when he was in the minors suggested he had double-digit SB potential -- not that he had blazing foot speed, but that he had enough speed to go along with his base-running technique to swipe a non-trivial number of bags.

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54 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

Bellinger stole ten bases this year, and has never stolen more than ten in any minor league season (he's not a SB threat).  I think ten is going to be the high end that you're going to see him steal.  Frankly, this should play very little in how you rank him.

 

I actually think this is something a lot of players tend to forget and its easy points. the 12-8 SB type guys who produce elsewhere tend to be valued for their other statistical prowess's, and this creates some nice value. I try to get a few of these types of players every year, which amounts to an extra steal or two each week / 20-30 extra over a full year that's basically free. Guys like Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo, Travis Shaw are good examples. Does anyone think of SBs when they value these guys? Most don't, and that leads to free 30-40 SB together, which affords you avoiding a solely speed guy later on.

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6 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

Does anyone think of SBs when they value these guys?

 

I do, and I think a lot of players are forced to piece together SB totals from these kinds of players.  Aside from the Hamilton, Gordon, Trea, Altuve owners, pretty much everyone has to rely on getting a meaningful number of SBs from at least 5 or 6 players on their roster if they want to get any points in the category.  You can't count on lucking into a pop-up Whit Merrifield situation every year, and most teams can't afford to have more than one or two Dyson/Rajai types who don't contribute anything else.

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I do, and I think a lot of players are forced to piece together SB totals from these kinds of players.  Aside from the Hamilton, Gordon, Trea, Altuve owners, pretty much everyone has to rely on getting a meaningful number of SBs from at least 5 or 6 players on their roster if they want to get any points in the category.  You can't count on lucking into a pop-up Whit Merrifield situation every year, and most teams can't afford to have more than one or two Dyson/Rajai types who don't contribute anything else.

 

This is my point exactly. It helps to round out the rest of your roster. Obviously you are aware of it. Some owners may not be. Easy to take advantage of in that case.

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24 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Well, except for the part where he went 10/13 on the basepaths in the majors.  Paul Goldschmidt never stole 10 in the minors, but I don't hear anyone saying he's not a SB threat.  Every scouting report I read about Bellinger when he was in the minors suggested he had double-digit SB potential -- not that he had blazing foot speed, but that he had enough speed to go along with his base-running technique to swipe a non-trivial number of bags.

Wasn't Bellinger clocked as the fastest to 1st base on the Dodgers last year?

 

He ranked 22nd last year supposedly in clock time out of the entire MLB

 

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/06/27/dodgers-notes-cody-bellingers-sneaky-speed-a-surprising-asset/

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Good analysis guys, I appreciate the development of this important aspect of fantasy category contribution.

 

As we all know, HR are up big time, and SB tend to be down.  So a guy having 10 SB instead of 0 is a big advantage, I think.  

 

I think 10 SB is equal to roughly 25 RBI or R.  Now that's a whole other discussion: category equivalencies.  But typically, I now view 1 SB as worth roughly 1.5 HR or 25 RBI or R.  That's based on scarcity mostly.  

 

If you go with that line of thinking, you have to ask yourself "How much is 15 extra HR worth, all other things being equal?" Same with the extra RBI/R/SB.  I think in an auction draft, that's an extra $3-5.  That's not huge, but it's significant.

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1 minute ago, countseth said:

Good analysis guys, I appreciate the development of this important aspect of fantasy category contribution.

 

As we all know, HR are up big time, and SB tend to be down.  So a guy having 10 SB instead of 0 is a big advantage, I think.  

 

I think 10 SB is equal to roughly 25 RBI or R.  Now that's a whole other discussion: category equivalencies.  But typically, I now view 1 SB as worth roughly 1.5 HR or 25 RBI or R.  That's based on scarcity mostly.  

 

If you go with that line of thinking, you have to ask yourself "How much is 15 extra HR worth, all other things being equal?" Same with the extra RBI/R/SB.  I think in an auction draft, that's an extra $3-5.  That's not huge, but it's significant.

Considering his speed and youth (still developing baseball skills). I want to say there is upside for more than 10SB and potential to possibly blossom into a Goldschmidt type when it comes to steals in a best case scenario.

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I've heard announcers talk about the athleticism of Bellinger. If I remember correctly, some have even said he might be the best CF the Dodgers have. I have to think that type of athleticism combined with his baseball IQ could easily translate to continued success on the basepaths.

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Average is the only real question here IMO.  I think the range of likely .BA outcomes is .260-.290.  I think he's too smart to have long slumps leading to a sub .260 average.

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Really great odds he knocks 40 over the fence with ease unless they dumb down the baseballs. I would bet on that. 

 

40 a certainty just a question of does it come with a .257 or a .275 and does it matter to you.

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Cody Bellinger told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick on Thursday that he has gained 15 pounds of muscle since the end of the World Series.

Bellinger credited it to a stepped-up conditioning and nutrition program. The 22-year-old first baseman earned National League Rookie of the Year honors in 2017 after batting .267/.352/.581 with 39 home runs, 97 RBI, 10 stolen bases, and 87 runs scored in 132 games. He carries monstrous fantasy upside into 2018.
 
MY BODY IS READY
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On 1/12/2018 at 9:02 AM, dannyusf said:

Cody Bellinger told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick on Thursday that he has gained 15 pounds of muscle since the end of the World Series.

Bellinger credited it to a stepped-up conditioning and nutrition program. The 22-year-old first baseman earned National League Rookie of the Year honors in 2017 after batting .267/.352/.581 with 39 home runs, 97 RBI, 10 stolen bases, and 87 runs scored in 132 games. He carries monstrous fantasy upside into 2018.
 
MY BODY IS READY

 

Just please don't turn into Juan Gonzalez, lol. 

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This is a classic example of regression. This guy isn’t as good as the season he had last year. With a years worth of film for teams to watch they’ll expose the multiple holes in his swing big time. 

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