IlliniGuy76

Cody Bellinger 2018 Outlook

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He changed his stance this evening - bat back down behind his back to begin.  Orel noted it, too.

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This is from awhile ago - and he had that mini streak a bit ago - and if he hits a big streak, no one will care anymore - except for those who had him benched when it started :)

 

Anyway - it's seems he's destined to be a streaky .250 power hitter that you can't bench in fear of missing out on one of his tears - this is not my favorite style of fantasy player for sure if that's the end game

 

*He's striking out a little less and has a .298 BABIP vs. last year's .299. He's the same guy. He just hasn't gotten the same results.

Specifically, he hasn't seen as many of his fly balls land over the fence. He has seen quite a bit more go straight up in the air, landing in the glove of an infielder. But over the course of a season, you wouldn't expect an even distribution for either of those outcomes. Not long after getting called up last season, Bellinger had a 26-game stretch in which he hit .187 with five home runs. He homered 10 times in 10 games after that. Then came a stretch 26 games with just four home runs. Then came 18 with eight*

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Watched every Ab last year. Have seen every AB this year. I know the stats don't point to a fundamental difference but there is one. He is not in control of his AB's and starts every count 0-2. You cannot hit that way. 


ceilling is .250 and 25-29 HR if he goes on a tear ... in more games than 2017 when he was unstoppable.

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Didn’t start every AB 0-2 even tonight -

and made a stance change tonight back to what worked for him in the past. 1-3 with a R and 2 BB and a steal.  Hardly a bad night.

Edited by BMcP
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He obviously won't put up last year's numbers. Hopefully everyone was smart enough to recognize that you don't just plug in MVP type season numbers in a sophomore season. It is frustrating as an owner that he has struggled, but he's still on pace to hit between 20-30 HR. If he ends up with 30, that's the type of sophomore slump I can handle.

Edited by Halo Fan

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7 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Watched every Ab last year. Have seen every AB this year. I know the stats don't point to a fundamental difference but there is one. He is not in control of his AB's and starts every count 0-2. You cannot hit that way. 


ceilling is .250 and 25-29 HR if he goes on a tear ... in more games than 2017 when he was unstoppable.

 

On the season, he's had 58 PAs get to an 0-2 count. With 292 PAs on the year that means 19.9% of his PAs resulted in this 0-2 count. That's a far cry from starting every count in that hole. Also, the MLB average is 20.6% (17087 of 82894), so it's not like he's way out of whack with rest of the league.  The only concern  I can see with this mythical 0-2 count you seem to think he finds himself in with every PA is that it's up from last year's numbers which was 17% (93 of 548)

 

So please stop with your hyperbole crap. Its not doing anyone favors. 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

So... you don’t have much. The hyperbole comment needed defending. But yeah you don’t have a lot to add on the player. Step aside

 

My hyperbole comment did not need one bit of defending. You’re the one talking in absolutes about how you’ve seen every AB he’s taken and how each and every one of those ABs found him in an 0-2 hole. Meanwhile I gave you the numbers, concrete evidence, that shows youre emphatically wrong about him being 0-2 all of the time. You either chose to ignore those numbers or were incapable of comprehending them. 

 

So you might want to take a moment and rethink this concept of yours that I’m the one in here with nothing to add. Because it’s not the only thing in here that you’re wrong about 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Junkie Cosmonaut
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13 hours ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

My hyperbole comment did not need one bit of defending. You’re the one talking in absolutes about how you’ve seen every AB he’s taken and how each and every one of those ABs found him in an 0-2 hole. Meanwhile I gave you the numbers, concrete evidence, that shows youre emphatically wrong about him being 0-2 all of the time. You either chose to ignore those numbers or were incapable of comprehending them. 

 

So you might want to take a moment and rethink this concept of yours that I’m the one in here with nothing to add. Because it’s not the only thing in here that you’re wrong about 

 

 

 

 

Junkie is right... those are the stats. Numbers don't lie, people do. I still think the only way he gets his head right is with a demotion to AAA for several weeks. Kid needs humbled.

Edited by BenGayBrowns
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5 hours ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

Those damn 0-2 counts

What is a player's average when he starts 0-2 as opposed to say... 2-0?

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Wow. He’s locked in right now, hitting absolute moon shots to the upper deck at Citi Field. Looks like he’s figuring out how to adjust to these holes people have been targeting.

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On 6/20/2018 at 12:30 AM, mevins31 said:

Watched every Ab last year. Have seen every AB this year. I know the stats don't point to a fundamental difference but there is one. He is not in control of his AB's and starts every count 0-2. You cannot hit that way. 


ceilling is .250 and 25-29 HR if he goes on a tear ... in more games than 2017 when he was unstoppable.

Wait, so his "ceiling" is hitting fewer HR in the 2nd half of the year, than he has in the first half? 

You realize that he already has 15 HRs, right? so he's more than halfway to what you claim is his ceiling, in less than half of the season.

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His second HR was on a high fastball so that's encouraging.

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3 hours ago, cs3 said:

Wait, so his "ceiling" is hitting fewer HR in the 2nd half of the year, than he has in the first half? 

You realize that he already has 15 HRs, right? so he's more than halfway to what you claim is his ceiling, in less than half of the season.

 

Well, he wrote that post on June 20, when Bellinger had 12 HR, not 15, and he hadn't hit a HR since June 8 at that time. I don't agree that his ceiling is 25-29 (and didn't agree with that statement when he made it). It was more like his pace...his actual pace at the time of mevins' post was 26-27 HR. I believe his ceiling is about 40 HR right now (he's on pace for 32), and it's attainable if he has a big second half. 

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4 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Well, he wrote that post on June 20, when Bellinger had 12 HR, not 15, and he hadn't hit a HR since June 8 at that time. I don't agree that his ceiling is 25-29 (and didn't agree with that statement when he made it). It was more like his pace...his actual pace at the time of mevins' post was 26-27 HR. I believe his ceiling is about 40 HR right now (he's on pace for 32), and it's attainable if he has a big second half. 

 

I think the point here is that citing his “pace” at that point and claiming it represented his “ceiling” was not accurate, nor did it demonstrate an accurate understanding of the meaning of the word “ceiling.”

Edited by BMcP
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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

 

I think the point here is that citing his “pace” at that point and claiming it represented his “ceiling” was not accurate, nor did it demonstrate an accurate understanding of the meaning of the word “ceiling.”

 

Yeah, I agree with that. I was just pointing out that when mevins wrote that post, Bellinger had 12 HR, not 15. Cs3 said, "You realize that he already has 15 HRs, right?" But mevins wouldn't have known that he had 15...because he didn't at the time he wrote that :). 

 

But like I said, I didn't agree when I read mevins' post that 25-29 HR was his ceiling...because it was Bellinger's pace at the time. 

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.400/3/7 last week.  Beware the 26-homer ceiling.

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Another homer off a lefty - he’s going to hit that ceiling pretty quickly...

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On 6/20/2018 at 12:30 AM, mevins31 said:

ceilling is .250 and 25-29 HR if he goes on a tear 

Ohhhh I get it now.... you meant his pre-allstar break ceiling

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He had a slow start - it is his 2nd season - but last year he was incredibly streaky as well.  You do need to be reactionary in fantasy baseball - at the same time you need to understand the type of player you have.  I think Bellinger is Khris Davis with way more upside personally - and again, 2nd season at 22-23(?)

 

He can draw walks and has a good eye - his swing just has too many holes and he takes too many quality pitches/strikes early in the count 

 

 

 

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No reason to think he cant match his HR total from last season. already up to 7 HR on the month and we still have a full 3 months ahead. Balls tend to fly out more in summer. Wouldn't put it past him, kid is an absolute stud who started out slow.

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9 hours ago, jahweedum said:

He had a slow start - it is his 2nd season - but last year he was incredibly streaky as well.  You do need to be reactionary in fantasy baseball - at the same time you need to understand the type of player you have.  I think Bellinger is Khris Davis with way more upside personally - and again, 2nd season at 22-23(?)

 

He can draw walks and has a good eye - his swing just has too many holes and he takes too many quality pitches/strikes early in the count 

 

 

 

i like khris as a fantasy comp (with more upside because team/age/ and sb potential, khris does have track record)

with a more 2017 type bellinger 2nd half this year he will have 30-35bombs/100/90/10-12 line

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