2ndCitySox

Miles Mikolas 2018 Outlook

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a little off topic but how did Hicks get credited with the win?  Mikolas had a 4-2 lead when he left after 4 2/3s innings so Mikolas doesn't get the win. But St Louis never trailed after Mikolas departed.  Cecil finished the 5th with a strikeout, then Bowman pitched the 6th and gave up one run but didn't give up the lead (4-3 Cards winning after the 6th), Hicks pitched the 7th, Holland pitched 1/3 of the 8th inning and gave up 2 but not the lead (7-5 Cards winning), and Norris pitched the rest of 8th and 9th innings for the save. I would have thought Cecil would get the win.  If it was awarded based on scorekeepers judgment, then is there no way to judge that Mikolas's 4 2/3s innings could be considered to have contributed more to the win then Hicks' one inning?  

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10 minutes ago, Southcoast57 said:

a little off topic but how did Hicks get credited with the win?  Mikolas had a 4-2 lead when he left after 4 2/3s innings so Mikolas doesn't get the win. But St Louis never trailed after Mikolas departed.  Cecil finished the 5th with a strikeout, then Bowman pitched the 6th and gave up one run but didn't give up the lead (4-3 Cards winning after the 6th), Hicks pitched the 7th, Holland pitched 1/3 of the 8th inning and gave up 2 but not the lead (7-5 Cards winning), and Norris pitched the rest of 8th and 9th innings for the save. I would have thought Cecil would get the win.  If it was awarded based on scorekeepers judgment, then is there no way to judge that Mikolas's 4 2/3s innings could be considered to have contributed more to the win then Hicks' one inning?  

you have to go 5 IP to be considered for the win. 

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Pretty sure the starter *can't* be awarded the win by the scorekeeper unless they go 5.

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49 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

you have to go 5 IP to be considered for the win. 

Yep. If they don't the win goes to whoever is deemed most effective by the storekeeper. It gets really arbitrary. 

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3 hours ago, David Aames said:

Today was ugly.   I hope we aren't making excuses for him. He probably isn't a good fantasy pitcher . 

 

Good pitchers can have bad outings... I'm not announcing that he's a lock for top 40, but there's more evidence that he has a good chance of it than not. He doesn't get a ton of Ks but all the peripherals look great. 

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7 hours ago, David Aames said:

He probably isn't a good fantasy pitcher . 

 

You can't be serious.

5 Wins, 5 QS, sub 1 WHIP great ERA

He doesn't K people, that's all he really doesn't do.

 

Will he continue to be great, I don't know, but he's been a great fantasy pitcher...

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What a show he put on tonight. The KC offense is bad, but they're among the best teams at avoiding Ks, and Miles made them look like a AAA lineup today, scattering 4 hits with 9 Ks and just one walk.

 

Fangraphs' Paul Sporer and NIck Pollack were pretty far apart on Mikolas in a recent podcast, with Sporer dinging him because of the lack of K upside.  I doubt we've seen a transformation here, but this was a statement outing.

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8 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

Was hitting 97 on the heater, didn’t realize he had that kind of velocity. Also has some nice movement on the curve so there is some K potential there.

 

I remember in Spring he’d hit like 97-99, thought was the guns were off. But he has some velocity... felt like tonight his FB was sitting 94 

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On 5/16/2018 at 6:52 PM, David Aames said:

Today was ugly.   I hope we aren't making excuses for him. He probably isn't a good fantasy pitcher . 

I know right

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ATM he only doesn't check one box, Ks. And after tonight he's probably close to 7 K/9

He's been elite in all other fantasy areas

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Every one of his starts seems to be 6+ IP, 2 runs or less, about 5-7 Ks, 0-1 walks, and 4-6 hits. I’ve heard basically nothing about Mikolas all year but everytime I watch him or look at his box score he has a start like I just mentioned. Underrated for sure. 

 

His Fip and xFip are 3.30 and 3.16, respectively. Doesn’t seem due for any regression. Very Solid SP2/3 

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Just now, daethfromabove1979 said:

Is there any type of innings limit on Mikolas this year? How many innings had he been averaging in Japan the last few years? 

 

He's 29, I highly doubt he has an innings limit.

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Has issued 6 walks all season so far. Even with lower Ks, he's been superb in K/BB leagues so far.

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18 minutes ago, xenmax said:

Has issued 6 walks all season so far. Even with lower Ks, he's been superb in K/BB leagues so far.

 

Actually, his excellent ratios and 6 wins have him as #12 SP on the player rater for traditional 5x5.

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On 5/16/2018 at 12:44 PM, tonycpsu said:

I think it was Rotowire's Derek van Riper who said in a recent podcast that he thought there wasn't much daylight between Mikolas and Mengden, and he wasn't talking about their mustache game.  His argument was that Mikolas is overvalued right now because he hasn't shown much to make us believe that the ERA is real, even though the control has been elite.  I haven't watched Mikolas enough to form an opinion of whether his current run of success is sustainable, or if his lack of strikeout stuff is going to eventually catch up with him, but the .257 BABIP against and 85% strand rate heading into today do suggest there could be a correction coming. 

 

None of this is actionable, of course.  Nobody's going to give you much of value because of the lack of Ks and short track record of success.  But the Mengden comp was certainly a provocative one.

 

Whoever that guy was that gave that Mikolas = Mendgen analysis would immediately go on my ignore list. 

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15 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

Was hitting 97 on the heater, didn’t realize he had that kind of velocity. Also has some nice movement on the curve so there is some K potential there.

 

He usually saves the 97 for when he has two strikes. 

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