KilloWertz

Dee Gordon 2018 Outlook

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Obviously had a really good season last year and was just traded to Seattle.  He will likely move from 2B to CF.  Any thoughts?  Does this really change his value much since Seattle has a pretty good offense too, and steals pretty much play everywhere?

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I think it bumps his value a smidge but it depends where he bats in the lineup. He certainly fits the profile of what they've been going for the past few years of an outfielder with speed who can handle a bat.

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29 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Obviously had a really good season last year and was just traded to Seattle.  He will likely move from 2B to CF.  Any thoughts?  Does this really change his value much since Seattle has a pretty good offense too, and steals pretty much play everywhere?

Probably helps a bit - if Marlins are dealing Stanton, etc and cutting back being in SEA can help his runs.  Also hitting top of order in AL lineup generally helps RBI totals some as the NL lineup you have the pitcher batting 9th and usually an 8th place hitter most NL teams wont invest much into because w/ P behind them they dont get pitched to, so you kind of have 2 wasted spots.   So this isnt a HUGE bump, but a slight bump up.  Obviously thinking long-term beyond 2018 losing 2B value kind of hurts a bit. 

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Probably 100 runs, more rbi, less steals, nice 2b/of eligibility.... and possibly the last season he’s a 2nd/3rd rounder

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2 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Probably 100 runs, more rbi, less steals, nice 2b/of eligibility.... and possibly the last season he’s a 2nd/3rd rounder

Unless he suddenly develops some power he's not going to be a first round guy. Few extra runs won't change that

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1 minute ago, WahooManiac said:

Unless he suddenly develops some power he's not going to be a first round guy. Few extra runs won't change that

 

Yea I think he’s going down, not up

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Just by not having the pitcher in front of him, hes probably going to have less opportunity to steal because there will be a guy in front of him on base more often.  He’s not going from 60 to 20 or 30, but high 40 to low 50sb isn’t unrealistic.  

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I doubt it will be a slow guy or anything though.  It's not like they batted their Catcher last.  I also don't think the loss of 2B eligibility hurts him that much.  Obviously OF is deeper than 2B no matter what, but guys with his amount of steals are very valuable/rare no matter what their position is.

 

Just throwing in a little for discussion purposes.

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1 hour ago, KilloWertz said:

I doubt it will be a slow guy or anything though.  It's not like they batted their Catcher last.  I also don't think the loss of 2B eligibility hurts him that much.  Obviously OF is deeper than 2B no matter what, but guys with his amount of steals are very valuable/rare no matter what their position is.

 

Just throwing in a little for discussion purposes.

 

Could be Gamel then maybe?

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3 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Could be Gamel then maybe?

 

Was thinking this today. Yeah, probably Gamel 9with Zunino 8. 

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6 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Just by not having the pitcher in front of him, hes probably going to have less opportunity to steal because there will be a guy in front of him on base more often.  He’s not going from 60 to 20 or 30, but high 40 to low 50sb isn’t unrealistic.  

 

Maybe, but he's also more likely to not be a complete black hole in RBI, and for a guy like Dee who's running every time...

 

It probably reduces his opportunities, I agree, but I definitely wouldn't rule out him still getting 55-60 with his Speed. I definitely wouldn't be at all surprised if he wound up having a pretty similar attempt number. 

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7 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

was there any info about hitters moving leagues and having difficulty? 

 

Meant to give my 2 cs on this too... 

 

I mean... yeah I definitely do worry about that in the first year... but Dee Gordon isn't really a hitter. He's a slapper. Like I'm working on my rankings for this year and I'm going into a bit more depth than last year on most hitters and you get to a guy like Gordon and you just sit there and say... "Well what can you really say? He slaps the ball, he runs, he steals." 

 

So at least in the case of Dee I just don't think you should ever evaluate him as a normal baseball hitter, or use prototypical hitters who get hits purely with their bat as opposed to their feet. Otherwise we'd just be complaining about a 16+% Hard%. 

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7 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Yea I think he’s going down, not up

 

yep once he loses 2B he drops ALOT

 

although I could see the scenario where he gets 20 games or so at 2B

 

Robbie could go the Utley route maybe some and play some 1B

 

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as far as Steals, Segura went from 33 to 22 going to Sea, however he played 28 games less as well, so it wouldn't have been that big of a drop off.

 

I can see Gordon's sb's actually going up.  If he leads off the game and gets on base, Segura gives him a chance to get to 2nd and then moves him to 3rd for Cano and Cruz

 

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Gordon had the 4th worst BB% in 2017. However, his O-Contact % was nearly 15% higher than league average. He's not selective, but he makes excellent contact. I'd be happy with a .290 average, 100 runs, and 50-60 steals.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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With Cano, Seager and Cruz behind him he’s a lock for 100-120 runs. Add that to his 50+ swipes and a good batting average and you’ve got yourself a solid player.

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Mariners wouldn't make this trade if they didn't believe in him as a game changer, which leads me to believe he will lead off. Segura has some pop in his bat and is a better overall hitter, so I'd be surprised if he wasn't batting 2nd. Follow up by Cano and Cruz and this is an elite top lineup.

 

The switch to OF shouldn't have much effect on his value, he's still way more valuable at 2B in all fantasy lineups. I suppose there could be problems if the transition goes horribly but I don't foresee that happening.

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I don't think anything has been confirmed outside of him playing CF, but the only logical place for him to hit in the lineup would be lead-off.  Like somebody else said, Segura has some pop, so it makes more sense to put the guy with little to no pop ahead of him, not behind him.

 

If they all actually stay healthy, which is obviously a question mark with everyone but probably Gordon, they could have a pretty insane lineup.  Gordon should have little problem duplicating most of his stats from last season.  Hitting ahead of Stanton did give him a boost in runs, but obviously Seattle's lineup is strong enough for him to duplicate those numbers at the very least.  As for Segura's drop in SBs, besides the obvious missed time due to multiple injuries, some of that had to do with the fact that he was getting caught stealing way more than normal for a fairly decent length of time.  I don't think Seattle is usually a team that steals a lot of bases, but obviously they will use Gordon's strengths since they traded for him, so I don't think he has much of a drop-off there, if at all.  Even if he does, Fuzzy_Slippers' hopeful projection seems pretty reasonable, with probably an uptick in Runs.

 

I have Gordon in a keeper league along with Albies and Schoop.  I was probably going to have to trade Gordon at some point in the offseason because three 2B would have been overkill, but now that he will be getting OF eligibility shortly after the beginning of the season.  That at least gives me the option to keep him as well if I choose to.

 

I know I've said this already, but I don't think the move to the OF really hurts his long term value in keeper leagues and such because his tools are valuable no matter what position he is eligible at.  Obviously there are more OFs than 2B, but the 50-60 SBs he gives are still rare no matter where they are coming from.

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Thoughts on him in a OPS league. I inherited a team with him and really don't want to keep him preferring a more balanced approach but he still ranks up there in the player raters and my only other options are Carlos Santana, Eric Thames, Joey Gallo, Steven Souza and Dallas Keuchel (would be second SP kept).

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