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KilloWertz

Marcell Ozuna 2018 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

Would love to know opinions on what has changed for him 

He went from sucking to doing really good? ;)

 

Seriously though, I'm not sure if I can give you the best answer as I haven't watched all of his ABs lately, but from what I've seen (and in the box scores) he's hitting the ball with a lot more consistent authority than he was early on.

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3 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

He went from sucking to doing really good? ;)

 

Seriously though, I'm not sure if I can give you the best answer as I haven't watched all of his ABs lately, but from what I've seen (and in the box scores) he's hitting the ball with a lot more consistent authority than he was early on.

 

He was just missing the same pitches he is now crushing. I know it's a numbers game and I love the numbers aspect, but sometimes slumps and slow starts aren't really about the numbers. He looks comfortable and in a groove now. He hits the ball hard and while 37 HR looks out of reach I don't see why he can't push for 30 even after that cold start. 

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4 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

He went from sucking to doing really good? ;)

 

Seriously though, I'm not sure if I can give you the best answer as I haven't watched all of his ABs lately, but from what I've seen (and in the box scores) he's hitting the ball with a lot more consistent authority than he was early on.

 

Tweaks/adjustments/mechanics. The tool kit is all still there to be a solid combination of BA/Power. I mean... his season long BA (as in how high it's gotten since late May) is already a testament to how good of a hit tool this guy is. It's not insane or anything-- he's not Lindor, don't get me wrong. But you usually don't have a hit tool as good as Ozuna's with the amount of power he can generate. 

 

There's still easily a possibility that last year was his peak. Maybe he's more of a top 100 player than a top 50 player (I'm not ready to make that leap yet personally), but I definitely don't think he's going to consistently be worse than that both this year but also moving forward into his career. The tool-kit from all I've seen over a few years has lead me to believe he has enough BA/Power to sustain as at the LEAST someone who should be expected to do .275/25 on a yearly basis. Not stealing sucks in fantasy, though he's even doing that this year. If he steals 8 bases and has a hot streak... he could realistically even return on your pre-season investment still. Grabbing those Bags is going to have a significant impact on his end of season rating. 

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4 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Tweaks/adjustments/mechanics. The tool kit is all still there to be a solid combination of BA/Power. I mean... his season long BA (as in how high it's gotten since late May) is already a testament to how good of a hit tool this guy is. It's not insane or anything-- he's not Lindor, don't get me wrong. But you usually don't have a hit tool as good as Ozuna's with the amount of power he can generate. 

 

There's still easily a possibility that last year was his peak. Maybe he's more of a top 100 player than a top 50 player (I'm not ready to make that leap yet personally), but I definitely don't think he's going to consistently be worse than that both this year but also moving forward into his career. The tool-kit from all I've seen over a few years has lead me to believe he has enough BA/Power to sustain as at the LEAST someone who should be expected to do .275/25 on a yearly basis. Not stealing sucks in fantasy, though he's even doing that this year. If he steals 8 bases and has a hot streak... he could realistically even return on your pre-season investment still. Grabbing those Bags is going to have a significant impact on his end of season rating. 

It's definitely possible, as I'm not sure he will ever consistently hit over .300 with nearly 40 HR's every year from 2017 on, but you are definitely right about his talent.  Last year was no fluke even if it ends up being his peak.  At least the year before, he flashed the potential of a breakout, but it just didn't quite happen.  That combined with his age lead me to believe in last year even when fantasy "experts" were predicting he would be a "bust" coming into the year.

 

I'll admit I lost some faith as the weeks went by with no power production really to speak of, evident by my posts in here and eventual admitting of trading him.  That was one of those idiotic moments, and obviously I ended up trading for him back.  The lack of power had me wondering if the shoulder injury that was brought up in an article with a Tommy Pham quote in it, and I think even the team mentioning it at one point last month when he was still sucking, but maybe any worry about that was for nothing.  Either that or it wasn't anything major and he's over it because this is the 2017 Marcell Ozuna that we all expected.  It should be a fun ride from here on out.

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I won’t discount the pressure of coming over to a new team and being asked to be something like “the guy”. Stanton seemed to be pressing as well. 

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The Cardinals are like fantasy baseball right now for some.  Ozuna is scorching hot, but he's having to carry the team on his back since almost everyone else doesn't do a thing.  I know my team has been like that off and on recently, but I still have to give Ozuna a lot of credit.

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3 hours ago, aifan27 said:

Every Marcell Ozuna owner right now

 

0*O0B835SqPP5k2v8U.

 

And the owners that dropped him.....

 

tenor.gif?itemid=5026106

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And to the owners that actually dropped him...

 

th-7.jpeg

 

or to keep with the animated gif...

Steve-Carell-Facepalm.png

Edited by KilloWertz
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If anyone watched the Cardinal's game on 7/4, the broadcasters did a pretty interesting analysis of Ozuna's swing. It looks as though that the main element that's changed is his leg kick. He always had a little "lift and drag" motion with his lead leg, though this year he's added a pretty substantial leg kick to go along with this previous motion. I think this is making it harder for him to time his swings, which might be causing his issues. I think he'll figure it all out personally, so if you can buy low on this guy definitely go for it. 

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I did watch and listen to some of the game last night, and both the TV and radio guys (and Ozuna himself) were beside themselves on an absolute cookie of a hung pitch that he fouled back. It’s just like he was doing earlier this year. He’s one adjustment away from getting his timing down again, but who knows when it will happen.

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I really hate how this place can be a hot bed of panic, but I have to ask: does anyone think this guy is droppable? 

I mean, the numbers are way down and the cards seem to be in disarray. Perhaps a second-half barrage is in store but I don't know enough about advanced metrics or Ozuna's history to make an educated guess. 

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There's some speculation that his shoulder may be affecting his ability to get under some pitches for backspin, loft and distance.  This year his avg flyball distance is at 190 and a 9 degree launch angle.  The figures were 203 and 10 last year so that's not the whole story. 

 

We know the shoulder has caused him pain throwing more than 40-50 feet so cutoff man adjustments have been made on defense.

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I may not have held if it wasn't for that three-week or so stretch where he hit like he did last year. But then he inexplicably went back into April '18 mode. I don't know if he can get it back again, but it feels to early to give up.

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.506 OPS since his last HR, 29 Game ago (June 16th)

 

Absolutely sucks.

His hits are all ground ball singles, he's on current pace for 15 doubles and 17 HRs

 

FIFTEEN doubles only

 

The saddest 15-15 season I've seen

 

Edited by Gumbo_Ghost
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4 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

Is he good buy-low or is ozuna a lost cause?

 

More buy low but wouldn’t expect a

ton.  He won’t get worse, but this situation is awful.  Cardinals toss out their worst lineups now under this crappy new manager.  Counting stats won’t be pleasant hitting around a bunch of losers.  Fowler and Wong won’t hardly ever drive him in.  He doesn’t walk much, he doesn’t run much.  He’s not in a good spot for fantasy glory right now.

Edited by Cmilne23

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He's a hard hitting, ground ball, hitter from my brief experience owning him.  He has name value if you can get it

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You know it's in him -- he went on that two or three week bender where he picked up much of his power stats for the year. He was destroying everything in the zone and elevating the ball. Before that stretch -- nothing. After that stretch -- ground ball city again. I have no idea why he can't get back to what he was doing in that one stretch where he was a completely different hitter than he's been the rest of the year.

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He has a shoulder issue doesn't he? 

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Yes. You can see it when he tries to throw. If this was affecting his hitting, then they should dl him. Arm/shoulder injuries can affect fielding and not batting. Joey Bats had a similar injury in Toronto and eventually missed some time.  But he was able to hit.

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8 minutes ago, RBI Sports said:

Yes. You can see it when he tries to throw. If this was affecting his hitting, then they should dl him. Arm/shoulder injuries can affect fielding and not batting. Joey Bats had a similar injury in Toronto and eventually missed some time.  But he was able to hit.

 

And that's been the line all year on Ozuna, that it only affects his throwing, not his hitting. Hard to believe looking at his stats though. However, he hit .333 with seven home runs in June before he went to crap again, so maybe he's out of whack for whatever unknown reason.

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I’ve held all year...Yes, we were rewarded in June, but July has been a train wreck just like April & May. I held through the all star break, thinking Marcell might be rejuvenated to start the 2nd half. I was curious and wanted to see what articles might be out on the interwebs talking about this guy and his struggles, but instead I found this gem talking about todays game...

 

https://www.cubshq.com/update/WATCH-Cardinals-outfielder-turns-down-free-base-grounds-into-double-play-on-next-pitch-25172

 

I get +1 for HBP and -1 for double plays...That’s the last straw. I’ve had it with this bum. “Step into my office Marcell.” “Why?” “Because you’re f^#%!=* fired!”

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I can’t figure out what the hell he is doing so differently and why he can’t fix it. Someone above mentioned that he may be hurt. That’s the only thing that would explain his performance this year. 

I didn’t think he would duplicate 2017’s numbers but I figured somewhere in between  2016 and 2017.  .280 ish average, 28-31 homeruns, 100 RBI. 

He can’t hit anything right now. 

His launch angle is in line with where it was last year. Exit velocity is nearly the same. 

A lot of things seem to be the same. 

I know he is hitting a lot of ground balls but why?? 

It doesn’t seem like his swing has changed. 

Edited by Under500Forever

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