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Madison Bumgarner 2018 Outlook

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If you don't own him, I'd consider making a play for him now while he looks mediorce.  Maybe his current owner is having second thoughts on whether he's still the ace he was before his recent run of injuries.  This is ST for the guy.  I'd expect him to get better as he gets stronger with each start.   I'd try to buy if it's at all possible.

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Looks like he was getting squeezed last night. A few of those upper strike zone pitches were clearly in the strike box and he didn't get the call. I know that the box is just a reference, but these pitches weren't even touching the line. They were 100% inside the box. Seems like he didn't get a few calls last game either. He's going to get better, losing Longo hurts the team. Maybe Cutch and Panik will heat up and score some runs for him.  

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I am as big a MadBum fan as anyone and seen most of his starts over the years.  For some reason he stopped throwing his cutter as much and his throwing a changeup a lot more than in the past which is his least effective pitch.

 

 As everyone knows his velo is down as well.    There is definitely some concern but I wouldn't give up on him yet.

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Welcome Back, Mr.Studgarner.

 

8IP 8K 0ER.

 

seems like he has a new killer pitch. the changeup was just devastating. location was perfect.

 

had perfect command over all of his pitches. watching today's game, easily gonna put him in as a TOP 10 SP ROS.

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He did get the benefit of a gi-normous zone.  But I agree, he looked all the way back in this one.

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5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

He did get the benefit of a gi-normous zone.  But I agree, he looked all the way back in this one.

 

Yeah definitely got some wide calls.  But he was executing and hitting his spots.  Some of those outside calls Posey didn't even move his glove, so he was given the benefit of the doubt.  And his cutter looked great, which wasn't happening his first starts back.  

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Fun facts:  The Giants had lost 16 of Bumgarner's last 20 starts.  And scored 2 runs or fewer in 13 of them.

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As a fellow MadBum owner, it's so great to see him putting up the lines we expected.

 

BUT, it was the Padres! Next up is the Rockies and I think they've been heating up lately. So we shall see

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I only caught the 8th inning, but he was topping out at 90 and grunting to do so. Was it due to being late in the game, or was a down a bit from the start? 

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4 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

I only caught the 8th inning, but he was topping out at 90 and grunting to do so. Was it due to being late in the game, or was a down a bit from the start? 

 

His velo is definitely down this season. He threw a ton of changeups.  I think he is reinventing himself.

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13 hours ago, fingy said:

As a fellow MadBum owner, it's so great to see him putting up the lines we expected.

 

BUT, it was the Padres! Next up is the Rockies and I think they've been heating up lately. So we shall see

 

In fact he'll currently face the Rockies twice in a row...the 2nd of which is @Col.  I'll have him on my bench for the 2nd matchup, for sure.  I would start him if it were a standalone @Col game....but the second game against the same team in a row?  That'll be a sit for me more than likely.  

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7 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

I only caught the 8th inning, but he was topping out at 90 and grunting to do so. Was it due to being late in the game, or was a down a bit from the start? 

 

I can assure you that Bumgarner grunts loudly from the first pitch until pitch 120. 

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I know people on here will kill me for saying this, especially coming off of two straight gems, but I'm benching MadBum Monday at Coors.

 

At any of the other 29 ballparks, I'd start Bumgarner, but Coors just isn't worth the risk.  Flyballs carrying an extra few feet in the thin air isn't that big of deal, but the problem is breaking balls don't break in the thin air, which changes the whole way you can pitch compared to at sea level.  For his career, Bumgarner has a 4.00 ERA and 1.40 WHIP and only 58 Ks in 79 career IPs in Coors.  If a pitcher had a 4.00 ERA and 1.40 WHIP and less than 7.0 strikeouts per 9 IP, you wouldn't even draft him, let alone start him.

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1 hour ago, mavsfan23 said:

Where do find a pitchers stats versus an opponent, sorted by home/road? 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bumgama01&year=Career&t=p#all_3637664071

 

At Coors field versus Rockies: 5-5 with a 1.40 WHIP/6.6 K per 9/4.00 ERA.  Don't have the ambition to look up home stats against the Rockies but he is obviously impacted by Coors Field like everyone else.  I'll start, though not expecting a masterpiece.  I'd take a QS.

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4 hours ago, RJWMN24 said:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bumgama01&year=Career&t=p#all_3637664071

 

At Coors field versus Rockies: 5-5 with a 1.40 WHIP/6.6 K per 9/4.00 ERA.  Don't have the ambition to look up home stats against the Rockies but he is obviously impacted by Coors Field like everyone else.  I'll start, though not expecting a masterpiece.  I'd take a QS.

 

I can deal with stadiums that have short porches, but the problem at Coors is that breaking balls don't break in the thin air, and that changes everything about how you can pitch.  Personally I don't start anyone at Coors, even the elite pitchers. 

 

FYI, here are the career numbers of some of the better NL pitchers at Coors:

 

Kershaw: 4.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 116 Ks in 120 IP

Scherzer: 5.88 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 29 Ks in 27 IP

Bumgarner: 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 58 Ks in 79 IP

Greinke: 4.20 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 56 Ks in 64 IP

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I can deal with stadiums that have short porches, but the problem at Coors is that breaking balls don't break in the thin air, and that changes everything about how you can pitch.  Personally I don't start anyone at Coors, even the elite pitchers. 

 

FYI, here are the career numbers of some of the better NL pitchers at Coors:

 

Kershaw: 4.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 116 Ks in 120 IP

Scherzer: 5.88 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 29 Ks in 27 IP

Bumgarner: 4.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 58 Ks in 79 IP

Greinke: 4.20 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 56 Ks in 64 IP

 

 

 

Add to that list

 

Strasburg: 7.20 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 21 Ks in 20 IP

 

I'd seriously rather stream a waiver wire bum with a good matchup than start even an elite pitcher at Coors.  As Scott Pianowski always likes to say, "gravity always wins"

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Here's how dramatic the Coors Field effect is:

 

Only one pitcher in baseball history has made at least 10 starts at Coors and has a career ERA at Coors lower than 3.50

 

https://www.insidetheseams.com/mlb-at-large/2018/6/9/greinke-has-survived-and-thrived-challenges-of-coors

 

And I bet you never guess who that one pitcher is until you look at the link.  I know I sure wouldn't have guessed him.

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