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Hollywood42

Lance McCullers 2018 Outlook

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Will he ever be healthy for a full season? When he's healthy, he's probably in the top 25 range. When he's not, he's a pretty risky start. What do we think?

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I am high on him this year. Hoping the great WS run won't bump his value too much. Last 2 seasons were disappointing relative to his potential. If he keeps his walks down like he did last year his ERA should vastly improve. Its actually pretty hard to believe his ERA was 4.25 based on his peripherals last year. He could easily be one of those lower value guys who is on the right side of luck and goes 180 IP with 200 K and a 3.2 ERA. At same time he could also have a 4 ERA again and be hurt. So to me it really depends on the price, because there is big upside here, but the range of outcomes is wide. Hopefully he goes around 150 overall, outside the top 35 SP's. Anything more expensive is an expectant price.

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He is frustrating to own...whats sort of interesting is we think of him at his best as a "K" guy,  because he has that 10+ K per 9 for his career, but when he was at this best this year, that stretch in May when he went 4 straight starts without giving up a run, he was doing a little more pitch to contact and the K's were less than 1 per inning during his most successful stretch.  Not sure they were even that high in the Yankees series, where he only allowed 1 run.  

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8 minutes ago, parrothead said:

He is frustrating to own...whats sort of interesting is we think of him at his best as a "K" guy,  because he has that 10+ K per 9 for his career, but when he was at this best this year, that stretch in May when he went 4 straight starts without giving up a run, he was doing a little more pitch to contact and the K's were less than 1 per inning during his most successful stretch.  Not sure they were even that high in the Yankees series, where he only allowed 1 run.  

 

I know what you mean. When batters stay disciplined and let him throw balls (when he's trying to strike out every batter), thus allowing walks/base runners, he can tend to get predictable and then give up the hits/runs with his FB.

 

Whatever he was doing early last season was gold, maybe his arm just got tired.

 

.

Edited by Members_Only_76

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