Hollywood42

Lance McCullers 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Will he ever be healthy for a full season? When he's healthy, he's probably in the top 25 range. When he's not, he's a pretty risky start. What do we think?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am high on him this year. Hoping the great WS run won't bump his value too much. Last 2 seasons were disappointing relative to his potential. If he keeps his walks down like he did last year his ERA should vastly improve. Its actually pretty hard to believe his ERA was 4.25 based on his peripherals last year. He could easily be one of those lower value guys who is on the right side of luck and goes 180 IP with 200 K and a 3.2 ERA. At same time he could also have a 4 ERA again and be hurt. So to me it really depends on the price, because there is big upside here, but the range of outcomes is wide. Hopefully he goes around 150 overall, outside the top 35 SP's. Anything more expensive is an expectant price.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He is frustrating to own...whats sort of interesting is we think of him at his best as a "K" guy,  because he has that 10+ K per 9 for his career, but when he was at this best this year, that stretch in May when he went 4 straight starts without giving up a run, he was doing a little more pitch to contact and the K's were less than 1 per inning during his most successful stretch.  Not sure they were even that high in the Yankees series, where he only allowed 1 run.  

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, parrothead said:

He is frustrating to own...whats sort of interesting is we think of him at his best as a "K" guy,  because he has that 10+ K per 9 for his career, but when he was at this best this year, that stretch in May when he went 4 straight starts without giving up a run, he was doing a little more pitch to contact and the K's were less than 1 per inning during his most successful stretch.  Not sure they were even that high in the Yankees series, where he only allowed 1 run.  

 

I know what you mean. When batters stay disciplined and let him throw balls (when he's trying to strike out every batter), thus allowing walks/base runners, he can tend to get predictable and then give up the hits/runs with his FB.

 

Whatever he was doing early last season was gold, maybe his arm just got tired.

 

.

Edited by Members_Only_76

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This a guy to draft at his floor taking into account an injury. Otherwise no thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

dynastyguru..

Quote

McCullers is entering his fourth season with the Astros. His third was his career high in innings with 118, and a xFIP of 3.17. It was also a year of decreased fastball usage (43% in 2016 to 40.4% in 2017) and increased usage of his secondary offerings, primarily the changeup (7.5% in 2016 to 11.9% in 2017). McCullers has been quoted as saying he wants to increase usage of his change-up this year- if he is able to commit to that plan and maintain a multi-pitch arsenal, he should jump up this list yet again. Assuming, of course, he can stay healthy, something that has hindered him throughout his professional career.

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I traded for him in a dynasty league. Risk for sure, so you can't have a stable full of similar players, but he's the kind of guy you have to take a chance on taking the next step.  Could be the next Severino. Price isn't too high right now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/27/2018 at 11:52 AM, SpecialFNK said:

dynastyguru..

 

 

 

 

He ignored the curve in his most recent start and was throwing changeups.  It's still below average and it continued to give up hits last time out.  He usually only has a 6 MPH difference from it and his 4 seamer and sinker.  He'll need this pitch or some type of cutter.  FG shows him hardly throwing any cutters or sliders which could help vs LHPs.  As good as his FB/CUs are I need to see more before drafting him.  His ADP isn't low enough for me to own a share.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's not even fair.  It's basically a Cutter now.

 

Still deciding if I'm willing to take the plunge and hope this year is the year he finally stays healthy or not.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

That's not even fair.  It's basically a Cutter now.

 

Still deciding if I'm willing to take the plunge and hope this year is the year he finally stays healthy or not.

:huh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Tugginroot said:

Look like Maddux, filth.

 

I was just going to post that!

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Tugginroot said:

Look like Maddux, filth.

 

I've been going out of my way to watch his starts this spring.

 

Maddux two seamer is what i said to a couple of people. 

 

I actually like the change up movement I've seen this spring also. 

 

It also appears he's worked to smooth out his delivery to make it less taxing.  He's reduced the timing issue a bit.

 

A few years ago I thought he'd be Jake Peavy.  I'll stick with that comp (as long as he doesn't throw 40% breaking balls).

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Tugginroot said:

:huh:

Ok, so I goofed.  It's still nasty... :D

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.