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oban14

WR lottery tickets: Who worked, who hasn't (so far)

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Worked:

 

1) Josh Gordon

2) DeDe Westbrook

3) JuJu Smith-Schuster (week before suspension sucked)

4) Robby Anderson (never owned him)

5) Marquise Goodwin (per post below)

 

Hasn't worked:

 

1) Josh Doctson

2) Corey Davis

3) Core Coleman (may be coming around, but now #2 on the team)

4) Mike Williams

5) All other rookie WRs not listed above

 

Any additions/changes?  Agree/disagree?

Edited by oban14

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perhaps the biggest "worked" of them all who is not listed, Marquise Goodwin 

 

 

Edited by pastorofmuppets2

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John Ross and Mike Williams for 1st round picks have not been good, Ross more ineffective and Williams obviously started out behind with the injury, but then the narrative flipped for the Chargers where I thought if their season goes in the tank he might be of value the last 1/4 of the year, but that doesnt appear to be the case.  Nelson in AZ there for a couple weeks in the early going looked like a lotto winner, but that went away quick.  Martavis?? 

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4 minutes ago, cnewbykkn said:

Kenny Golladay?

Trent Taylor?

 

 

After that first game, I thought Golladay was going to be the WR to own.  Just looked natural making those tough TDs.  I would say he isn't good enough for the first list.  Trent Taylor, some decent yards but I don't see him as a lottery winner.

5 minutes ago, parrothead said:

John Ross and Mike Williams for 1st round picks have not been good, Ross more ineffective and Williams obviously started out behind with the injury, but then the narrative flipped for the Chargers where I thought if their season goes in the tank he might be of value the last 1/4 of the year, but that doesnt appear to be the case.  Nelson in AZ there for a couple weeks in the early going looked like a lotto winner, but that went away quick.  Martavis?? 

 

Drafted Williams and parked him in a reserved slot all year based on a similar expectation.  For players like this, it actually makes me root for the Chargers to go deep in the playoffs so I can potentially keep them next year.  Nelson, no.  Martavis, no.  I should add when I say "no" I really mean "not yet" and it could also mean "not ever" eventually.

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some busts:

 

jj nelson

brandon coleman

decker

kevin white

jordan matthews

moncrief

cameron meridith

brandon marshall

snead

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29 minutes ago, herschel said:

some busts:

 

jj nelson

brandon coleman

decker

kevin white

jordan matthews

moncrief

cameron meridith

brandon marshall

snead

 

I dropped Alvin Kamara after the draft but before week 1 for freaking Kevin White. I think I scooped him up last year as well.

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That feel when you drafted Robby and cut him after Week 1.

 

Robby and arguably Jermaine, Richardson, Dede, Agholor, Juju, Stills (for a few weeks).

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I had the 2nd round pick and with Bell, Gronk and Miller for my first 3 picks. I ended up with ARob, KB, Garcon as my wideouts and needless to say it didn't work out very well. I've been streaming WR pretty much every week and 100% playing match-ups, here have been my standouts so far:

Marqise Lee - It ways always a question of Lee or Hurns, but once Hurns got injured it's been Lee. I'm not as sure any more since Westbrook and now Cole is in the mix too. But Lee has been solid the past 5 weeks (not counting the Arizona game vs Peterson. No one should've started Lee in that situation anyway.) 

 

Robert Woods - Solid leading up to the Bye and exploded after that. I started him weeks 9 - 11 and he basically won a week outright. Unfortunate injury and I couldn't hold him (no IR spots in our league) so I had to drop. My opponent picked him up a few weeks ago and now I play him. Hoping he doesn't go off the week he comes back.

 

JuJu / Martavis - This one has been back and forth. Once I heard Martvais was going to be benched, I went out and picked up Juju and immediately started him. JuJu along with Woods helped me stage a 3-6 comeback to 7-6 and qualify for playoffs. Once he got injured, I switched to Martavis. Same thing when he got suspended. It's been a rollercoaster at WR2 for the Steelers. Martavis was also a plus since our league counts returns yards (25 for 1 point) so the extra ~2 points from Martavis was a nice bonus.

 

Kearse - Steamed him for week 13 vs KC and was handsomely rewarded.  I scored 180 PPR points even in week 13 and Kearse helped me get there to get the last play-off spot. Didn't touch him @ Denver last week because that secondary is still no joke and McCown hasn't exactly proven himself in away games. Good thing I stayed away from it.

 

Zay Jones - Entirely for match-ups. I played him only twice this year: vs the terrible Jets secondary and vs KC (need I say more?) Given the weather conditions at Buffalo, I would've avoid him at all costs yesterday. Although going forward, he might be a good candidate to flex. He has NE this week with MIA on week 16. Although both are road games.

 

Bad Pick-ups: Pretty much all Cardinal wideouts aside from Fitz. At one point I cycled through both Browns and Nelson. Once Carson was put on IR, I dumped them all. Nelson did have a good week early in the season that I benefited from, but it was just a one time deal.

 

Tyler Lockett - This guy is an enigma. Thought he would be a good bet vs the Niners and he doesn't record a catch. Vs Jacksonville? Avoid at all costs right? The guy puts up almost 100 yards and a TD. The return yardage is nice, but he's a real dart throw most of the time.

 

Hurns - after ARob went down it was either Lee or Hurns? It was looking like hurns for a few weeks. He was getting a lot of targets and Lee was dropping passes left and right, but he got injured himself and was eventually overtaken by Lee.

 

I'll be honest, my wideout situation is horrible as Lee, Martavis/JuJu and Kearse are my only options. But I have Gronk, Bell, Kamara, Jamaal Williams, Alex Collins and Ben to pick up the slack. I guess wideouts are overrated when you have 2 of the top 3 RB's :)

 

 

 

Edited by TheLegacy

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22 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

That feel when you drafted Robby and cut him after Week 1.

 

Robby and arguably Jermaine, Richardson, Dede, Agholor, Juju, Stills (for a few weeks).

 

I drafted Robby, cut him/picked him back up twice more, and finally the 4th time he joined my roster for good was right before he hit his stride.

 

Seemed like no one else in my league believed in a Jets WR, but I think bc I drafted him I was always paying extra attention to him.

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11 minutes ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

I drafted Robby, cut him/picked him back up twice more, and finally the 4th time he joined my roster for good was right before he hit his stride.

 

Seemed like no one else in my league believed in a Jets WR, but I think bc I drafted him I was always paying extra attention to him.

Same, being a Bills fan.

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You can look at lottery tickets in a few different ways... I define it as a player that has SIGNIFICANTLY more upside than his ADP reflects, but also carries a fair amount of risk. That could be an unproven rookie, or a proven vet with question marks.

 

If we're looking at WRs, IMO the biggest (and most expensive) lottery ticket this year was TY Hilton. You were potentially getting a top 5 WR at a 3rd round ADP if/when Luck comes back.  That one didn't work out.

 

Another one was Deandre Hopkins... everyone knew the talent was there but after the season with Brock there were massive production question marks bc of the QB situation.  Safe to say that one worked out.

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Devin Funchess

 

I picked him up off waivers week 4. He played a lot for my team after Benjamin left in that trade. He's been great for me.

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Sterling Shepard is a good bust candidate. He’s been doing just enough to justify his roster (and, for some teams, starting) spot, but not enough to ever be worth playing.

Edited by atrium

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2 hours ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

You can look at lottery tickets in a few different ways... I define it as a player that has SIGNIFICANTLY more upside than his ADP reflects, but also carries a fair amount of risk. That could be an unproven rookie, or a proven vet with question marks.

 

If we're looking at WRs, IMO the biggest (and most expensive) lottery ticket this year was TY Hilton. You were potentially getting a top 5 WR at a 3rd round ADP if/when Luck comes back.  That one didn't work out.

 

Another one was Deandre Hopkins... everyone knew the talent was there but after the season with Brock there were massive production question marks bc of the QB situation.  Safe to say that one worked out.

 

I'd say our definitions are similar.  To me, a lottery ticket is a rookie, or second year player who busted/got hurt as a rookie, or similar who has the potential to break out.  Josh Gordon is another rare example of a non rookie/second year player.

 

Hopkins and Hilton were in a different category for me but Hopkins was a definite value who outplayed his ADP.

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Does Thielen count? I believe I snagged him after the 1st week off waiver in 5 leagues. Nobody believed in him. 

 

Devante Parker is on my bust list. I had him in a couple leagues. Never again. 

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