jfazz23

Marwin Gonzalez 2018 Outlook

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just took him in the rotoworld mock II so i wanted to get some opinions.

450 at bats lat year he broke out. 23 hrs 90 rbis 300 avg and a 900 OPS

 

with beltran leaving, is marwin a sure thing for 550 at bats?

 

does anything stand out that screams regression to you?

 

I am Loving his multiple position eligibility 

 

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He started to take a lot more walks and struck out less than he ever has in his career, so there is an underlying change here. I don't remember if there was ever any stories of a rebuilt swing or BSOHL stories from Spring Training that would explain this, but maybe I'm missing something here? If there is at least some reason to believe these changes are a result of something tangible than there is more reason to believe he can sustain his production.

 

As for playing time, as of now he should be penciled in as the starting LF. With his utility, he should be able to get all the playing time he can handle as they can shuffle him anywhere when someone has a day off. I don't think playing time will be an issue for him at all (barring an offseason acquisition).

 

At this point there's no reason to pick him as more than a bench player on your team, though. His career year production was still not amazing - 23 HR, 8 SB is pretty ordinary. Average is an unknown, he could easily hit .280 this year which with those production numbers isn't great. And this is assuming he keeps up that power and speed production. At best he's a weapon in daily leagues where you can shift him in and out wherever you want. He should be eligible at OF and everywhere in the IF in most formats. So if you look at the weakest positions (2B and SS), he's probably still outside the top 12 at both.

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I would assume he would get closer or pass 500 at-bats for the season assuming HOU does not go out and acquire another full-time bat and the fact that in any league with 10-game eligibility he is eligible everywhere except catcher is absolute gold, especially for those daily lineup change leagues, to have someone who can move around like that is extremely valuable.  As a SS or 2B, which is where his best "value" is as a fantasy player,  I would have to think he is in the top 12 at both of those positions, so no doubt he is a fantasy starter. 

 

What round did you get him in?  

 

 

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

I would assume he would get closer or pass 500 at-bats for the season assuming HOU does not go out and acquire another full-time bat and the fact that in any league with 10-game eligibility he is eligible everywhere except catcher is absolute gold, especially for those daily lineup change leagues, to have someone who can move around like that is extremely valuable.  As a SS or 2B, which is where his best "value" is as a fantasy player,  I would have to think he is in the top 12 at both of those positions, so no doubt he is a fantasy starter. 

 

What round did you get him in?  

 

 

i spent a 7th on him in the mock

 

23 homers in 450 at bats is no joke

 

and i feel like a lot of people dont allow for improvement in their assessments.  not everyone peaks at 22 like Trout and such 

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15 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

i spent a 7th on him in the mock

 

23 homers in 450 at bats is no joke

 

and i feel like a lot of people dont allow for improvement in their assessments.  not everyone peaks at 22 like Trout and such 

 

People allow for improvement in their assessments, but not when they deviate so far from any sort of expectation or "ceiling" in their minds. 

I'm a Houston fan. I love Marwin. I will pass on him as another other than a bench player. His versatility is money. He was clubbing doubles to wo with the HR's, the K rate was good, the BB rate was ok. I like him. I just don't want to depend on him as a regular (and part of that is due to versatility). If you draft him as any 1 position, he's a fairly low end option, but factoring in he's eligible at 1b, 2b, ss, LF (OF) in ESPN, and 3B in yahoo, that's tremendous. 

 

BR has him @ .275 with 19 hr and 8 SB in 2018. Steamer .262 with 176hr and 7 SB. Depth Charts @ .262 with 17 hr and 7 SB. Those are in in 440/470 AB's. 

 

For me, I'm drafting him as a .270 bat with low 20's HR as a guy I can slide all around my lineup to have a full lineup daily. There's value in that. As a strict starter at any 1 spot... I feel like I can do better. 

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Has clear path to everyday playing time with Gurriel sidelined for the first month of the season with a hamate bone injury. Lots to like for someone who will be batting 5th in a loaded Houston lineup. 

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Thoughts on this guy? Slow start after a breakout year last year. Not sure if he can reproduce what he did but the main attraction to this guy is the lineup. Just not sure how long I can hang onto him and hope he can replicate last year when better options might be on the wire. 

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I just traded for him.  He qualifies at literally every position except C and that alone is worth a ton given that he should be playing full time in a stacked HOU lineup.  Slow starts are fine in my book (I have Votto and Goldie too) as they provide good buy-low opportunities.

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Just be patient. Drops should not even be something in your mind for consideration at this point in the season, at least with the guys you drafted in the first 10 rounds or so. 

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1 hour ago, tcorb22 said:

Thoughts on this guy? Slow start after a breakout year last year. Not sure if he can reproduce what he did but the main attraction to this guy is the lineup. Just not sure how long I can hang onto him and hope he can replicate last year when better options might be on the wire. 

Better options on the wire?  The guy is eligible at pretty much every position and hits in the heart of the best lineup in baseball.

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I drafted him as my 3B, but made a trade for Beltre and now slid him to SS.  I think he probably has more value there, but to keep this from being deleted, I'm still hanging in there.  Obviously it would be nice if he got off to a fast start, which would ease any concerns about coming close to duplicating last season, but I will concur with what others have said.  His versatility is worth being patient, and a ton of players that were drafted well before him are struggling just as bad or worse.

 

If he's still hitting around .200 at this time in May, then maybe I'll start to get a little worried.

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Anyone done with this guy, thinking of dropping him for C. Hernandez, hitting near bottom of order and will probably start losing playing time with Gurriel back.

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This guy would be amazing if he could produce anything, isn’t making much contact right now at all. 

 

He should at least be tradable with his multi position eligibility but it’s hard to start him right now. I’m only plugging him in lately because of the many rain delays.

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13 hours ago, wahoos1 said:

Anyone done with this guy, thinking of dropping him for C. Hernandez, hitting near bottom of order and will probably start losing playing time with Gurriel back.

Yep dropped him for his teammate gurriel, who has immediately started producing 

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He's batting 7th now.

I'll be taking him to Dumpsville as soon as Daniel Murphy comes off the DL. I'm stuck with him until then due to nothing on the WW. I'd love to keep the mult-position on my bench, but he's just awful now & I can't justify dropping anybody over him.

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Too early to dump a guy who can be slotted at nearly every position and has proven to be capable of hitting in the bigs.  He's riding my bench unless I have an opening and I have many what with the postponed games and all.

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BABIP is in the toilet, so is his HR/FB%.  Better days ahead, he will go on a hot streak that corrects both soon.  Rest of his batting profile looks like it always has.  He's actually had more hard hit % than he did last year so far.

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16 hours ago, The Dirtdog said:

BABIP is in the toilet, so is his HR/FB%.  Better days ahead, he will go on a hot streak that corrects both soon.  Rest of his batting profile looks like it always has.  He's actually had more hard hit % than he did last year so far.

 

This.  His BABIP is .100 points below his career average (and .140 points below his 2017 BABIP), and his HR/FB is half of his career average, all while still having pretty much the same batted ball profile.  There will be some positive correction coming here sooner or later, and in leagues with short benches, you can't underestimate the utility of a guy like this.

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All of the Astros bats could use a pick me up. In a 10 team there's no way I'm dropping Marwin. We all saw what he's capable of last year and yeah the value of his utility is fantastic. 

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17 hours ago, The Dirtdog said:

BABIP is in the toilet, so is his HR/FB%.  Better days ahead, he will go on a hot streak that corrects both soon.  Rest of his batting profile looks like it always has.  He's actually had more hard hit % than he did last year so far.

 

Umm his zone contact percentage is 71% and he has been around just below 90% in his career, that seems fairly substantial.

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47 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

Umm his zone contact percentage is 71% and he has been around just below 90% in his career, that seems fairly substantial.

That's not causing him to strike out a substantially higher amount.  Also that wouldn't affect his BABIP which is due for some serious positive regression.  Id say just as much as the BABIP has been bad luck, the lack of contact has been an early season slump, he didn't just forget how to hit be baseball.  I'm not an owner but I'd hold.

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On 4/16/2018 at 12:22 PM, tcorb22 said:

Yep dropped him for his teammate gurriel, who has immediately started producing 

 

This is such a weird post . Gurriel is basically a 1B only player, which is really different standard for hitting. Gurriel also isn't producing either (3 hits in 15 at bats), though its obviously way, way early. Even if you're talking about a bench bat, Gurriel's eligibility is so restrictive. Unless someone was starting Gonzalez at 1B or corner infielder, they seem like different players and I'm not sure why you'd consider one as a replacement for the other.

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1 hour ago, Jericho said:

 

This is such a weird post . Gurriel is basically a 1B only player, which is really different standard for hitting. Gurriel also isn't producing either (3 hits in 15 at bats), though its obviously way, way early. Even if you're talking about a bench bat, Gurriel's eligibility is so restrictive. Unless someone was starting Gonzalez at 1B or corner infielder, they seem like different players and I'm not sure why you'd consider one as a replacement for the other.

Meh I mean just started playing and has almost matched Marwin's production. Marwin's production

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21 hours ago, Jericho said:

 

This is such a weird post . Gurriel is basically a 1B only player, which is really different standard for hitting. Gurriel also isn't producing either (3 hits in 15 at bats), though its obviously way, way early. Even if you're talking about a bench bat, Gurriel's eligibility is so restrictive. Unless someone was starting Gonzalez at 1B or corner infielder, they seem like different players and I'm not sure why you'd consider one as a replacement for the other.

Well he took Marwin's spot in the lineup. So he's gonna get all of his counting stats 

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