TheBoatmen

Teoscar Hernandez 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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1 minute ago, TTRA1N said:

Why is he out the game?

dumb defensive replacement in the 9th.

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9 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Teoscar is hitting below .200 against lefties. 

 

Could be a bench for today against Boston with a lefty starting.

Interesting that he is only a .224 hitting throughout his MLB and MILB career vs Ls. I personally wouldnt bench him against lefties like E Rod though. 

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44 minutes ago, klove42 said:

Interesting that he is only a .224 hitting throughout his MLB and MILB career vs Ls. I personally wouldnt bench him against lefties like E Rod though. 

Way too small of a sample unless you are talking about dfs or something.

He hit .357 and slugged (yes slugged) 1.071! against lefties last year in AAA (just 28 ABs)

In 2016 he hit .294 in 51 ABs...

I think he'll hit lefties just like he hits everyone...

 

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Teoscar is hitting below .200 against lefties. 

 

Could be a bench for today against Boston with a lefty starting.

 

He's in there:

 

1. Steve Pearce (R) LF

2. Teoscar Hernandez (R) RF

3. Justin Smoak (S) 1B

4. Yangervis Solarte (S) 3B

5. Kendrys Morales (S) DH

6. Russell Martin (R) C

7. Kevin Pillar (R) CF

8. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 2B

9. Aledmys Diaz (R) SS

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Teoscar is hitting below .200 against lefties. 

 

Could be a bench for today against Boston with a lefty starting.

 

Sale tomorrow.  So, if you're sitting him today, you're sitting him tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

Sale tomorrow.  So, if you're sitting him today, you're sitting him tomorrow.

I don't understand the concept of ever sitting hitters unless you have someone better in their slot to replace them. The difference one player can make, in one game out of a full week of games, makes little to no difference to average, obp, or slugging % but can make a significant difference in losing the counting stats of runs, homers, rbi's, and sb's. 

 

The only debate you ever need to have is: do i have someone better to play tonight in this players position slot? that determination should depend on how the batter has been hitting lately, and analysis of how they hit vs. lefties/righties, if they are facing an ace vs. scrub, etc. 

 

With how hot Teoscar has been, to me it is a mistake to sit him against anyone right now unless all your OF's are better than him which is doubtful unless 10 team league or lower. 

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12 minutes ago, richg24 said:

With how hot Teoscar has been, to me it is a mistake to sit him against anyone right now unless all your OF's are better than him which is doubtful unless 10 team league or lower. 

 

Hitters are hot until they're not.  Facing Chris Sale is a very good way to be in the "not hot" column for at least one night.  Look, I'm all in on Teoscar, have him in 3 out of my 4 leagues (was already taken in the deeper dynasty league) but I think a lot of owners even in 12-teamers and some 15-teamers (particularly 3 OF leagues, which are rather common) probably have some better options out there.  Maybe Teoscar runs into one tonight against Sale or the Sox bullpen and that's great, but we're not talking about a top 20 "set and forget" outfielder here just yet.

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3 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Hitters are hot until they're not.  Facing Chris Sale is a very good way to be in the "not hot" column for at least one night.  Look, I'm all in on Teoscar, have him in 3 out of my 4 leagues (was already taken in the deeper dynasty league) but I think a lot of owners even in 12-teamers and some 15-teamers (particularly 3 OF leagues, which are rather common) probably have some better options out there.  Maybe Teoscar runs into one tonight against Sale or the Sox bullpen and that's great, but we're not talking about a top 20 "set and forget" outfielder here just yet.

I don't disagree with you anything you said really, but I'd still leave Teoscar in there unless you have another solid option.

 

CSB a bit, but it applies to the discussion, and that is I sat Semien against Sale last week and Semien had a big game.  After that, while I still think what you said is sound, I still can't recommend benching somebody anymore after that unless you have a pretty solid option behind him.

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3 hours ago, richg24 said:

I don't understand the concept of ever sitting hitters unless you have someone better in their slot to replace them. The difference one player can make, in one game out of a full week of games, makes little to no difference to average, obp, or slugging % but can make a significant difference in losing the counting stats of runs, homers, rbi's, and sb's. 

 

The only debate you ever need to have is: do i have someone better to play tonight in this players position slot? that determination should depend on how the batter has been hitting lately, and analysis of how they hit vs. lefties/righties, if they are facing an ace vs. scrub, etc. 

 

With how hot Teoscar has been, to me it is a mistake to sit him against anyone right now unless all your OF's are better than him which is doubtful unless 10 team league or lower. 

 

Well...yea...no kidding.

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21 minutes ago, Vonparker said:

He could be a sell high guy.

Or a buy high guy. 

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4 hours ago, mrfrood said:

Or a buy high guy. 

or a waiver wire guy....

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#1 on statcast leader boards with a 97mph avg exit velocity. This guy is a slightly less athletic version of Franchy Cordero without the approach issues.

 

It's kind of weird actually Teoscar is more aggressive (swing wise) and has roughly the same swstr% / contact rates as Cordero but walks more and strikes out less.

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From FanGraphs yesterday:

 

Hernandez is a true Statcast stud. His 96.6 MPH average exit velocity is highest among hitters with a minimum of 25 batted ball events. That’s up substantially from his 2017 average exit velocity of 87.0 MPH. He’s hitting the balls on the screws through his first 38 plate appearances with the Blue Jays this year, has an average launch angle of 13.9 degrees, 34.6% LD%, 53.8% Hard% and just a 3.8% Soft%. He’s parlayed his dreamy batted-ball data into a .343/.395/.743 slash with three homers. Remarkably, Baseball Savant and xStats.org peg him as a little unlucky on his batted balls with expected stat slash lines of .399/.451/.891 (Baseball Savant doesn’t have an xOBP, so I simply added the additional points for batting average onto his OBP) and .373/.422/.783, respectively.

 

He’s also been a dinger-hitting machine with the Blue Jays organization. He ripped eight homers in 95 plate appearances with them last year, and with his three hit in 38 plate appearances this season, he has 11 homers in just 133 plate appearances in Toronto. Hernandez has also mashed eight in 127 plate appearances at the Triple-A level in their organization, and he’s hit .231/.291/.530 with a 6.3% BB% and 29.1% K% for Toronto’s Triple-A affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons, dating back to last year. As the walk and strikeout rates suggest, he’s not a hitter without faults, but he’s doing extraordinary damage when he puts the ball in play. Furthermore, in his 133 plate appearances with the Blue Jays, he’s sporting a respectable 32.5% O-Swing% and an aggressive in-zone approach with a 74.4% Z-Swing% that should help offset some of his swing-and-miss issues (16.2% SwStr%).

 

Additionally, his dreamy Statcast data doesn’t begin and end with his batted balls. The 25-year-old outfielder has above average speed that’s resulted in a tie for 55th in sprint speed (28.3 ft/sec) out 332 players with a minimum of 10 opportunities. He’s already stolen one base this year for the Blue Jays, and he stole two in just four games for the Bisons before his promotion. Hernandez also stole 16 bases in 105 games played at the Triple-A level last year, and he eclipsed 30 stolen bases in each minor-league season from 2014-2016.

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He had a great AB against Sale tonight. It was a 10 pitch (I think) walk where he laid off of a few good pitches just outside the zone. During the AB the commentators were saying how he has improved his approach. It’s An extremely small sample size but over his last 7 games he has 5 walks and 7Ks. 

Still to many strikeouts but he’s taking more walks recently. 

 

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I thought he had a pretty game tonight against some of the tougher pitchers in baseball.

 

1st at-bat: 5 pitch walk vs Sale

2nd at-bat: 3 pitch strikeout vs Sale (2 swinging strikes)...

3rd at-bat: 10 pitch walk vs Sale (2 swinging strikes)

4th at-bat: ground-ball double on first pitch against Matt Barnes

5th at-bat: 8 pitch pop-out against Kimbrel (1 swinging strike)

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I watched the 10 pitch walk, that was the kind of at bat you see from a seasoned pro. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Sale was tipping his pitches there or something... or maybe Teoscar is the real deal.

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Or the Jays are iWatching like the Red Sox do?

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20 minutes ago, commissioner007 said:

I am buying high no doubt. The buy high is still very low from seeing the trades in my leagues. It seems his owners are pricing him around $5-$8

Yup, he's a good get right now. If he finishes the year with .260 and 20Hr/10SB, he should have a good amount of R/RBI in that lineup (the Jays are surprising me to no end here). I'm hoping to flip him for a SP in my league, but will happily hold. He looks legit, Houston had high praise for him.

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When Donaldson comes back where will he bat? 

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1 hour ago, dannyusf said:

When Donaldson comes back where will he bat? 

Yeah def the 10k question. I hope they figure out a way to keep him near that top, but really hard to say...

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1 hour ago, dannyusf said:

When Donaldson comes back where will he bat? 

 

9 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah def the 10k question. I hope they figure out a way to keep him near that top, but really hard to say...

 

Leadoff not out of the question.

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