Tryptamine

Kyle Schwarber 2018 Outlook

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Looks like Kyle has been working out pretty hard, he's looking down right skinny in a  recent Instagram picture. I'm expecting bigs things from him this year.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Looks like Kyle has been working out pretty hard, he's looking down right skinny in a  recent Instagram picture. I'm expecting bigs things from him this year.

 

 

Why would that help? Just curious. I didn't know that his size was a problem last year. 

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56 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Why would that help? Just curious. I didn't know that his size was a problem last year. 

 

because if he can become just an average defender in LF his stock goes up quite a bit.

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Ok, full disclosure, hater here. 

What am I missing on this guy that everyone loves so much? I saw he was being mentioned for Danny Salazar, and that Cleveland would have to be expected to give up a second piece. 

 

Why in the world would Schwarber command a second piece with Danny Salazar? Yeah, the per 162 HR rate for his career is lovely. But he's a .220 hitter with a huge K rate. He doesn't hit for extra bases if it's not going out of the park. He walks some. 

I know Bruce is looking for his pay day, but what about guys like Bautista,  Frazier, Duda, etc. They may not present the technical ceiling Schwarber has, but I don't see where this guy should command a guy like Salazar + 

Do people really expect this guy to improve on that BA? 

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16 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

Ok, full disclosure, hater here. 

What am I missing on this guy that everyone loves so much? I saw he was being mentioned for Danny Salazar, and that Cleveland would have to be expected to give up a second piece. 

 

Why in the world would Schwarber command a second piece with Danny Salazar? Yeah, the per 162 HR rate for his career is lovely. But he's a .220 hitter with a huge K rate. He doesn't hit for extra bases if it's not going out of the park. He walks some. 

I know Bruce is looking for his pay day, but what about guys like Bautista,  Frazier, Duda, etc. They may not present the technical ceiling Schwarber has, but I don't see where this guy should command a guy like Salazar + 

Do people really expect this guy to improve on that BA? 

 

bad babip year, WRC+ over 100 which is pretty good for a bad year as is a 333 wOBA.  256 ISO is pretty good too, so I don't know about "not hitting for extra bases".  Home Runs are extra bases and hitting 30 in a bad year is pretty good.

 

He's only 24.  Not impossible he hits 250 or better. would have an OBP over 350 or better, and could slug 500.

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36 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

bad babip year, WRC+ over 100 which is pretty good for a bad year as is a 333 wOBA.  256 ISO is pretty good too, so I don't know about "not hitting for extra bases".  Home Runs are extra bases and hitting 30 in a bad year is pretty good.

 

He's only 24.  Not impossible he hits 250 or better. would have an OBP over 350 or better, and could slug 500.

 

Not hitting for extra bases if it's not going out of the park is what I said. 

Who said it's a bad year for him? Yeah, it's a great ISO, but his BA is crap and his slugging isn't. Why should he be expected to have a high (or even league average) BABIP when he's not real quick (to put it nicely), and a horrible LD%? If eligible, he'd be tied for the 18th worst soft% (softly hit balls), and 144th worst LD % (out of what would be only 145 qualifiers). He'd be tied for the 12th highest flyball % in the league. 

 

Slow, lots of K's, lots of fly balls, lots of soft contact, very few line drives. He's like a glorified Chris Carter, who people loved early in his career too. 

I just don't get it, I guess. 

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2 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Not hitting for extra bases if it's not going out of the park is what I said. 

Who said it's a bad year for him? Yeah, it's a great ISO, but his BA is crap and his slugging isn't. Why should he be expected to have a high (or even league average) BABIP when he's not real quick (to put it nicely), and a horrible LD%? If eligible, he'd be tied for the 18th worst soft% (softly hit balls), and 144th worst LD % (out of what would be only 145 qualifiers). He'd be tied for the 12th highest flyball % in the league. 

 

Slow, lots of K's, lots of fly balls, lots of soft contact, very few line drives. He's like a glorified Chris Carter, who people loved early in his career too. 

I just don't get it, I guess. 

 

You're right, I misread your comment on going out of the park.

 

I don't think he's going super high this year.  Probably should sit vs lefties, that would help his BA.

 

 

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I really wish he would get moved to the AL. I like him and think he has a lot of potential, but I think staying in the NL is going to limit how good he can be. If he can DH in the AL and focus on just hitting, he could be very good. The power will always be there, but if he can improve the batting average and get it up around .250, he could be a great DH for a long time. But I'm worried about the talent level he can reach if he stays in the NL

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3 hours ago, Hollywood42 said:

I really wish he would get moved to the AL. I like him and think he has a lot of potential, but I think staying in the NL is going to limit how good he can be. If he can DH in the AL and focus on just hitting, he could be very good. The power will always be there, but if he can improve the batting average and get it up around .250, he could be a great DH for a long time. But I'm worried about the talent level he can reach if he stays in the NL

Or get some catcher eligibility!!!  Put his numbers behind the plate and were in business

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41 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Or get some catcher eligibility!!!  Put his numbers behind the plate and were in business

 

That might be even worse than the OF, honestly. Looks like he has shed a lot of weight, but he's still a big dude. Don't know if it would be good for those knees to be catching or not 

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4 hours ago, Hollywood42 said:

I really wish he would get moved to the AL. I like him and think he has a lot of potential, but I think staying in the NL is going to limit how good he can be. If he can DH in the AL and focus on just hitting, he could be very good. The power will always be there, but if he can improve the batting average and get it up around .250, he could be a great DH for a long time. But I'm worried about the talent level he can reach if he stays in the NL

 

Red Sox have been kicking the tires on him for DH given it is Hanley's last year in Boston plus Hanley is always injured ... or at least disinterested, hah.

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5 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Red Sox have been kicking the tires on him for DH given it is Hanley's last year in Boston plus Hanley is always injured ... or at least disinterested, hah.

 

The issue is, I don't think anybody is going to be willing to pay what the Cubs are probably going to be asking for him. Cubs probably have a sky high price tag on him, which I can understand. He has the potential to be a huge hitter in this league, and the Cubs know that. But I think he needs to go somewhere he can DH to fully realize that potential. So it's seems like a catch 22 situation

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5 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Not hitting for extra bases if it's not going out of the park is what I said. 

Who said it's a bad year for him? Yeah, it's a great ISO, but his BA is crap and his slugging isn't. Why should he be expected to have a high (or even league average) BABIP when he's not real quick (to put it nicely), and a horrible LD%? If eligible, he'd be tied for the 18th worst soft% (softly hit balls), and 144th worst LD % (out of what would be only 145 qualifiers). He'd be tied for the 12th highest flyball % in the league. 

 

Slow, lots of K's, lots of fly balls, lots of soft contact, very few line drives. He's like a glorified Chris Carter, who people loved early in his career too. 

I just don't get it, I guess. 

 

I think the Cubs view him that he's at least the guy that he was in the second half of 2017: 41st in baseball in OPS (.894), .253 batting average, soft-contact percentage down to 19 percent (72nd worst) and line-drive percentage was also up to 17 percent (33rd worst) and he was 8th in hard-hit percentage at 43.9 percent, just ahead of Giancarlo Stanton. 

 

The batted ball profile of 17 percent line drive, 37 percent GB and 47 percent fly ball isn't an issue. There's plenty of elite hitters in the range of 17-18 percent LD for their career including Alex Rodriguez (17), Ken Griffey Jr. (18 LD/37 GB/44 FB) and Gary Sheffield (17/43/39). 

 

And you're overplaying his lack of speed. In Fangraphs' Ultimate Base Running (UBR), Schwarber ranked -0.5, which is tied with Bryce Harper and Wil Myers for 112th in baseball and just ahead of Cody Bellinger and Ben Zobrist. 

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1 hour ago, ryno1980 said:

 

I think the Cubs view him that he's at least the guy that he was in the second half of 2017: 41st in baseball in OPS (.894), .253 batting average, soft-contact percentage down to 19 percent (72nd worst) and line-drive percentage was also up to 17 percent (33rd worst) and he was 8th in hard-hit percentage at 43.9 percent, just ahead of Giancarlo Stanton. 

 

The batted ball profile of 17 percent line drive, 37 percent GB and 47 percent fly ball isn't an issue. There's plenty of elite hitters in the range of 17-18 percent LD for their career including Alex Rodriguez (17), Ken Griffey Jr. (18 LD/37 GB/44 FB) and Gary Sheffield (17/43/39). 

 

And you're overplaying his lack of speed. In Fangraphs' Ultimate Base Running (UBR), Schwarber ranked -0.5, which is tied with Bryce Harper and Wil Myers for 112th in baseball and just ahead of Cody Bellinger and Ben Zobrist. 

Yeah he's not a bad runner. That's why I'm not sure if the weight loss will help his D

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Don't forget he missed a whole year in 2016, so he had some catching up to do, I just wish he didn't try and pull everything, he has enough power to go the other way, if he has a year similar to last year he's Joey Gallo, just not as good, they are both in the Adam Dunn, Rob Deer mold

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On 12/18/2017 at 4:50 PM, Light Tower Power said:

Does the slimmed down version catch again or has that ship sailed? 10 games at catcher possible?

 

 

 

Not a chance I don't think.

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So the everyday outfield is going to schwarber, almora, heyward?

 

I'm surprised the cubs don't give happ a long look in the outfield. 

 

Schwarber is expendable for them, but they are stuck because his value is low. Perhaps they hope for a modest rebound and move him mid-season?

Edited by 2ndCitySox

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12 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

So the everyday outfield is going to schwarber, almora, heyward?

 

I'm surprised the cubs don't give happ a long look in the outfield. 

 

Schwarber is expendable for them, but they are stuck because his value is low. Perhaps they hope for a modest rebound and move him mid-season?

It's basically Heyward and Almora covering the entire field, imo.

 

I much prefer Happ both in real life and in FBB, but you gotta put Schwarber out there... You have to get him ABs, at least in if you want to trade him.

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They’re not looking at it like they want to look for a sell high opportunity to trade him. They want him to play to continue to develop. 

There’s money that can be spent on another starter and you don’t trade him for bullpen help. Just don’t see a scenario where he is dealt unless it’s closer to free agency in 2022.

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Wait how is he still catcher eligible in Yahoo? He only made 4 appearances there

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19 minutes ago, elrey said:

Wait how is he still catcher eligible in Yahoo? He only made 4 appearances there

They haven't updated position eligibility. They show T. Turner as being 2B eligible. 

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3 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

They haven't updated position eligibility. They show T. Turner as being 2B eligible. 

 

Yahoo is a living breathing disaster of a platform, yet somehow I can't convince my leaguemates to change.

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