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Luis Castillo 2018 Outlook

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If you look at him as a 4.21 ERA pitcher with a 9.4 K/9 and a 4.21 ERA in 124 career MLB innings instead of 2017 vs 2018, your perspective changes dramatically.  If his April were to happen in the middle of last season, the story would likely be "rough patch" instead of questions about his career trajectory.

 

  2017 2018 Career
LOB% 80% 64% 74%
SwStr% 12.6% 14.6% 13%
O-Swing% 28% 32% 30%
Z-Contact% 82% 80% 81%
Contact % 73% 69% 72%
IP 89.1 34.2 124.0
K/9 9.9 8.1 9.4
ERA 3.12 7.01

4.21

 

 

And despite this rough patch that is his 2018 campaign, he is getting more swinging strikes, more outside swings, less contact in the zone, and less contact overall.  His LOB% should also continue to climb to the league average of 70%.  

 

This is not to say that there isn't justification for some concern.  His velo has been down to 95-96 compared to last year when it was 98, although it did get back up to 97 in his start last night.  Still, the increase in swinging strikes is promising, and makes me think his decreased K/9 has more to do with sequencing than lack of stuff.  His change up, as we know, is lethal.  I don't have the data on this, but maybe he's not using it as much as he should to finish off batters and instead relying on the fastball?

 

 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

If you look at him as a 4.21 ERA pitcher with a 9.4 K/9 and a 4.21 ERA in 124 career MLB innings instead of 2017 vs 2018, your perspective changes dramatically.  If his April were to happen in the middle of last season, the story would likely be "rough patch" instead of questions about his career trajectory.

 

  2017 2018 Career
LOB% 80% 64% 74%
SwStr% 12.6% 14.6% 13%
O-Swing% 28% 32% 30%
Z-Contact% 82% 80% 81%
Contact % 73% 69% 72%
IP 89.1 34.2 124.0
K/9 9.9 8.1 9.4
ERA 3.12 7.01

4.21

 

 

And despite this rough patch that is his 2018 campaign, he is getting more swinging strikes, more outside swings, less contact in the zone, and less contact overall.  His LOB% should also continue to climb to the league average of 70%.  

 

This is not to say that there isn't justification for some concern.  His velo has been down to 95-96 compared to last year when it was 98, although it did get back up to 97 in his start last night.  Still, the increase in swinging strikes is promising, and makes me think his decreased K/9 has more to do with sequencing than lack of stuff.  His change up, as we know, is lethal.  I don't have the data on this, but maybe he's not using it as much as he should to finish off batters and instead relying on the fastball?

 

 

 

 

 

Hasn’t his babip also been really high so far this season

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8 minutes ago, loro1991 said:

 

Hasn’t his babip also been really high so far this season

It's been high because the movement on his pitches has been (more) horizontal instead of vertical.  With horizontal movement it's easier for the batter to square up and hit the ball on the barrel of the bat. That's why the Reds staff is trying to get him to stay on top of the ball when he throws a pitch in order to simulate his mechanics from last year.   I watched the first couple of innings last night and it seemed Castillo was looking to the dugout after every pitch, maybe to get feedback as to where his arm-slot was to make sure his mechanics were correct.  So, hopefully it's a mechanical issue that is about to be resolved... 

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Have we seen the worst from him? He got 7 K's last game, I'm thinking he's on the upswing. I bought low.

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As long as he’s not injured you still have to be extremely optimistic about him.

Edited by UberRebel

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Sell, hold or buy in keeper/dynasty? 

 

There seems to be universal consensus that he's got tremendous upside, but frankly the short track record of MLB success and lack of blue chip prospect pedigree are somewhat souring me on his dynasty value. 

 

If this is indeed a purely mechanical issue, though, I'm buying. 

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14 hours ago, amcsoldier said:

Sell, hold or buy in keeper/dynasty? 

 

There seems to be universal consensus that he's got tremendous upside, but frankly the short track record of MLB success and lack of blue chip prospect pedigree are somewhat souring me on his dynasty value. 

 

If this is indeed a purely mechanical issue, though, I'm buying. 

 

He was ranked the Marlins No. 2 prospect when the Reds acquired him. 

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3 hours ago, ryno1980 said:

 

He was ranked the Marlins No. 2 prospect when the Reds acquired him. 

 

I define "blue chip" prospect as a top 100 overall prospect, which Castillo never was. 

 

Not a Castillo hater - I just burned the #1 waiver claim slot on him in my keeper league - but he doesnt have the pedigree that might inspire greater confidence / a longer leash. 

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3 minutes ago, amcsoldier said:

 

I define "blue chip" prospect as a top 100 overall prospect, which Castillo never was. 

 

Not a Castillo hater - I just burned the #1 waiver claim slot on him in my keeper league - but he doesnt have the pedigree that might inspire greater confidence / a longer leash. 

 

Ill disagree as his fastball was given 80 grades and BP had him written up as a “next 10” just outside their 101. He had doubters obviously but there’s pretty good pedigree.

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3 minutes ago, amcsoldier said:

 

I define "blue chip" prospect as a top 100 overall prospect, which Castillo never was. 

 

Not a Castillo hater - I just burned the #1 waiver claim slot on him in my keeper league - but he doesnt have the pedigree that might inspire greater confidence / a longer leash. 

 

There is no such thing as a pedigree in the minors.  More highly touted players fail than succeed and those not rated as high can well become aces.  Most minor league players are in many ways still just overgrown boys learning their trade and a lot of the non-touted ones will grow physically, mentally and in their skill sets.  You have to watch what a prospect has done lately and not his whole history in the minors because they are always works in progress.  If you don't and just read yearly lists you miss the deGroms of the baseball world.

 

Southcoast57 said:

 

Quote

It's been high because the movement on his pitches has been (more) horizontal instead of vertical.  With horizontal movement it's easier for the batter to square up and hit the ball on the barrel of the bat. That's why the Reds staff is trying to get him to stay on top of the ball when he throws a pitch in order to simulate his mechanics from last year.   I watched the first couple of innings last night and it seemed Castillo was looking to the dugout after every pitch, maybe to get feedback as to where his arm-slot was to make sure his mechanics were correct.  So, hopefully it's a mechanical issue that is about to be resolved...

 

This is exactly what had been happening to Chris Sale this year.  He and the coaches realized he wasn't getting on top on his slider enough and it was just moving horizontally without his usual lethal downward bite.  So he worked on his mechanics and his last outing was the very first time this season his slider started to look normal aka a killer pitch again.

 

If working on mechanics regards this problem was crucial for one of The Four Aces in baseball right now then even more so for someone young like Castillo.  And since they know what the problem is then Castillo is well on his way to fixing it.  Just takes longer sometimes for a youngster to get mechanics fixed then an older pro.  Patience, young grasshoppers.

 

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I strongly disagree with the premise that there's "no such thing as a pedigree in the minors" - the past couple of years in particular have seen an inordinate number of highly regarded prospects blossom into all-stars - and while nothing is guaranteed, there's at least some correlation between prospect status / grades and future success. 

 

I do wholeheartedly agree that we as fantasy evaluators need to also track actual success in order to spot the rise of unheralded players, which happens annually like clockwork. Do your research, then monitor diligently. 

 

My point with Castillo was, leaning in recency is a double edged sword; 90 mlb innings could be the start of a successful career, but it could also be a SSS blip (and yes, in dynasty, 90 IP is a blip). I'd be more confident in the former if it were supplemented with a strong pedigree - in other words, scouting plus recent results. Seems he was more highly regarded than I recall, and his 17 stats were tantalizing. Fortune favors the bold in fantasy, which is why I think his upside is worth the gamble. 

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8 minutes ago, amcsoldier said:

Fortune favors the bold in fantasy, which is why I think his upside is worth the gamble. 

This. 24/7. Well said. Championships are lost by playing it safe. 

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35 minutes ago, Akecheta said:

Razzball is also a fan of him:

 

Luis Castillo (55% owned – decrease of 16.1%), in the illustrious words of Charles Barkley, has been turrable. It’s never a good thing when the ERA is higher than the K/9 (7.85 vs 7.53). Turrable. 4.08 BB/9? Turrable. But all is not lost. .330 BABIP and 58.1% strand rate portend for some positive regression to occur. What really gets my attention, though, is that the swinging strike is almost 1% higher than last year (13.5% vs 12.6%). Castillo is also getting batters to swing more at pitches out of the strike zone (31.5% vs 28.3%). Now, batters are clobbering the pitches when making contact. According to Baseballsavant, the barrel% has increased 7% from last season and the hard hit% has increased 9%. Brooksbaseball is showing that his fastball is down almost 2mph from last season. A 98 mph fastball allows for one to get away with more mistakes than a 96 mph one. As I’m writing this, Castillo just struck out 7 Brewers in 6 innings of work while allowing 2 earned runs. This could be the beginning of a bounce from the lows. If he’s on the waiver wire, the upside is worth a free scoop. TREASURE

https://razzball.com/one-mans-trash-jarlin-the-magician/

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Lol there's no need to even  discuss this. He's a stud, going through a really crappy patch of starts. It'll turn around at some point this year. Even still, even if this is a write off year. He will be great next year.

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1 minute ago, Travis Burten said:

Lol there's no need to even  discuss this. He's a stud, going through a really crappy patch of starts. It'll turn around at some point this year. Even still, even if this is a write off year. He will be great next year.

There's still a lot of time left this year, I'm not writing him off yet. He'll right the ship. Last start was encouraging. 

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Anyone else starting him today? I have a feeling he's gonna for 6.2IP 2ERA with the win... giving up a 2 run dinger with two outs in the 7th.

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1 minute ago, GC Tacos said:

Anyone else starting him today? I have a feeling he's gonna for 6.2IP 2ERA with the win... giving up a 2 run dinger with two outs in the 7th.

 

I wouldn't trust him tonight. Mets have a history of hitting very well in that park

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7 minutes ago, GC Tacos said:

Anyone else starting him today? I have a feeling he's gonna for 6.2IP 2ERA with the win... giving up a 2 run dinger with two outs in the 7th.

I’m starting him because I basically need the GS since my staff is super depleted right now. 

 

Solid chance it’s going to be awful though. 

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23 minutes ago, Philoumenos said:

I’m starting him because I basically need the GS since my staff is super depleted right now. 

 

Solid chance it’s going to be awful though. 

I’m starting this chump with absolutely no confidence. 

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tyson ross already got my party started for this week so I'm definitely rolling this dude out there. 

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