azeri98

Luis Castillo 2018 Outlook

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In a fairly ironic twist of fate, he was pitching a decent, efficient game (5 IP, 2 ER, 1.00 WHIP, 2 Ks) and the rain came in...still one of his better outings but he had QS written all over this one!  

 

 

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Two K's! And you guys are excited.

 

Just stream someone each day. Look at line movement and betting lines and run totals. Get off Castillo and start winning. Lost year.

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10 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Two K's! And you guys are excited.

 

Just stream someone each day. Look at line movement and betting lines and run totals. Get off Castillo and start winning. Lost year.

Not everyone plays 10 team standard leagues with no keeper incentive.

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I just hope he goes all Severino for me next year after me giving him a home on my bench all year.  Most young pitchers take so long to stop yo-yo-ing all over the place.

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18 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Not everyone plays 10 team standard leagues with no keeper incentive.

^ This. who would I pick up to "move on" from Castillo in a 14-teamer? Seth Lugo is the highest ranked pitcher available on the wire in that league...

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27 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I just hope he goes all Severino for me next year after me giving him a home on my bench all year.  Most young pitchers take so long to stop yo-yo-ing all over the place.

 

Right there with ya. He’s got a dedicated bench spot this season in a keeper where I’ve got him. 

 

Seems to me that all season he hasn’t had all 3 of his pitches working at the same time, and he tends to get rocked after he gets touched. Both of those problems are typical of young arms but the stuff is still elite. Hope he can flash that upside later this season and get going early in 2019. 

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This guy forgotten? he's been walking a lot less and striking plenty out. How's the velocity today?

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12 hours ago, dkrocka said:

This guy forgotten? he's been walking a lot less and striking plenty out. How's the velocity today?

I watched the start....his fastball was pretty consistently in the 96-97 range, which is a tick higher than where its been most of the year and his control was better.  Stayed down in the zone with the fastball and was hitting corners well.  His change was good, as per usual.

 

Overall an encouraging outing against a team that had seen him a few weeks ago and got to him a bit then.

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On 2018-06-22 at 9:07 PM, rrrrich46 said:

 

The most common comparison in terms of talent level and adjustment curve is severino.

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8 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

Well well well, what do we have here?  Top 25-30 arm ROS?

Or kevin gausman

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I still don't get it with this guy.

Obviously last year's 12% line drive rate allowed was totally unsustainable, but simple regression can't explain everything that going on here.

His SwStr% is still amazing. At 14% he's 5th best among all MLB starters. Only Sale, Cole, Scherzer, deGrom, and Corbin have been better. His BB rate is down more than 10% from last season.

Yet somehow his K rate is way below last seasons mark, and way out of line with his wiff rate. 

 

His HR rate has gone up, but that's just a function of allowing more fly balls overall, since his HR/FB is almost exactly the same as last season.

 

This makes me think either he's somehow tipping pitches, or his catching situation has been utterly horrendous in regard to pitch sequencing and/or framing. How does anyone have a top 6 wiff rate, but K less than one batter per inning? Has anything major changed with Red's catchers from last year to this year?

 

This season may be lost but Im buying next at an almost certain discount.

(Edit - Selfishly hoping hes not TOO good the rest of the season)

Edited by cs3
I didn't even realize what a great start he just had today
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I still think he'll have a ton of helium next year. Seems like one of those guys youll have to over draft to get him regardless of what happens.

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2 hours ago, cs3 said:

I still don't get it with this guy.

Obviously last year's 12% line drive rate allowed was totally unsustainable, but simple regression can't explain everything that going on here.

His SwStr% is still amazing. At 14% he's 5th best among all MLB starters. Only Sale, Cole, Scherzer, deGrom, and Corbin have been better. His BB rate is down more than 10% from last season.

Yet somehow his K rate is way below last seasons mark, and way out of line with his wiff rate. 

 

His HR rate has gone up, but that's just a function of allowing more fly balls overall, since his HR/FB is almost exactly the same as last season.

 

This makes me think either he's somehow tipping pitches, or his catching situation has been utterly horrendous in regard to pitch sequencing and/or framing. How does anyone have a top 6 wiff rate, but K less than one batter per inning? Has anything major changed with Red's catchers from last year to this year?

 

This season may be lost but Im buying next at an almost certain discount.

(Edit - Selfishly hoping hes not TOO good the rest of the season)

 

I'm pretty sure I saw someone somewhere point to his heatmaps, and he was really missing his spot on one of his pitches (don't remember which). He was dotting the corner/edge of the zone last season but leaving it over the plate a lot in the first half of the season. That would explain the surge in HR. He's got a 3.00 era over the past 30 days, excluding today, so maybe he's back to putting that pitch where he wants it. He might be worth picking back up again tbh

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This is the Luis Castillo I need going forward! While this year was trying, I really do see him taking the next step towards being a SP1 in 2019. 

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So glad I dropped this clown months ago when I did.

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pretty frustrating to watch him....his fastball is actually touching 97-99 in his past few starts and he's throwing more strikes.  The longball is killing him though.

 

But the stuff is there.  I watched today's start and it looked like he was falling in love with the change up a bit too much.  His fastball command was spotty but he did not throw it nearly enough.  They were sitting on his change after he made a couple of guys swing out of their shoes on it in the first two innings or so.

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Just now, B&F said:

Owned the Cardinals tonight.

 

This is his upside. Castillo can be dominant. Cardinals saw his potential tonight it appears.

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Take a look at his numbers over the past month

5 starts

3 Wins

28 IP

38 K's

4 BB's

2.89/.93

 

He has the best changeup in baseball. That's definitely something you can build on even if you're fastball has only just recently gotten back up to 97.

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