BlueJaysIn2030

Los Angeles Angels 2018 Outlook

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Sounding like MM won't be an Angel anyway. Looking like Headley since he only has one year remaining then they would go after Machado in free agency

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10 hours ago, Blood Brother said:

The structuring doesn't matter when it comes to the luxury tax as it goes by AAV. Angels signing Moose would be just about it for them this offseason with the commitments in tow + arb raises. That's putting too much in the basket on a guy who was barely worth over 2 WAR despite hitting 38 hr's and has a bad body. Eppler has routinely mentioned OBP% as a need for this team so that alone leads me to believe Moustakas isn't even on their radar

 

I think it's far more likely they trade for Headley or Solarte, then look at filling out RP and maybe SP with another arm. With the upcoming FA class poised to be one of the best in a long time, it makes sense for the Halos to look at 1yr options so they can be major players next offseason

 

 

 

What ave is used for the Luxury Tax?  My understanding is that it is a concrete number in 2018 of around 197m. You go over in 2018 you pay. The penalties can stack by how many years in a row you go over and  are quite steep going four consecutive years. Staying under the thresh hold for one year breaks the cycle of four years. 

 

IF I have the wrong impression please explain where

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7 hours ago, taobball said:

 

His argument was as to why the Angels shouldn't do it, not why Moose is overpriced in general. His argument centered around luxury tax structure of the Angels current roster. 


Plus this is just a cop out... 

 

Right but no contract works that way. You don't get to go up to a premium player and say "Hey I wanna pay you while you're young but never when you're old." Every contract or most contracts for FA aged players are built with the idea that you're paying for the front half and you except that they may not live up to expectations in the back half. You're an Angels fan right? I mean this in no bad way whatsoever, but here's a newsflash: pretty strong chance 2021 sucks. You'll still be paying Albert 30 Mil. You'll be paying Upton 23 mil and he'll be three years older *though that could be more reasonable*, and you're going to lose the best player in baseball. Who the hell cares what you pay anyone in 2021+. This organization really needs a major retooling/rebuilding from the ground up similar to what both Chicago teams have done (in different stages) over the past 5+ years, but you can't do that in the last three years you have Trout. So you're currently delaying the rebuild. But once 2021 hits I fully expect the Angels to sell off all they're excess they can, and hope that they can draft well in the meantime to speed up the rebuild. If Moustakas can help you win a championship in the next three years, which I personally believe that he can, then he's worth the money. 

 

Not saying with or without Moose I'd project it, but that's a really strong power+contact bat. The Angels line-up has the potential to look pretty darn good. Moose would fill an obvious hole, right now. 

 

Hes had one good season (with a below avg walk rate) and you think he’s a premium player? 

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Yes, it's at $197 for 2018 and again it goes by AAV of the players contracts. So while Upton is only making $16 million this yr towards the payroll, his AAV is $21.2 which is whats being counted towards the luxury tax threshold.

 

Also, regarding Moose, he apparently has the Angels as his preferred destination. If he took a discount, I could accept it, but with Boras as his agent, I'm not seeing that. I'm just not sold on him being a good investment for the short-term or long-term. He doesn't dramatically improve the roster IMO and I'm wary of his HR spike in a yr where everybody was hitting hr's. He's a bad bodied 3B who will be entering the wrong side of 30 who doesn't get on base or draw walks. Todd Frazier platooning at 3B with Valbuena is more appealing to me as far as value goes. It sounds like the Angels are trying for Headley which....meh, not really thrilled about that. Rather get Solarte if they're looking for somebody from the Padres

Edited by Blood Brother

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50 minutes ago, Magoo said:

 

Hes had one good season (with a below avg walk rate) and you think he’s a premium player? 

 

Well for one who said premium? I sure didn't. But do I think he's a good player? Sure. I was a big fan going into last season. The talent has always been there. He has a rare combination of power and contact which has always been present. He's just matured and evolved as a hitter over the last few years which culminated in last year HR binge. Again: if the Tax effects it, that's one thing. But if we're talking about an 85 Million dollar contract and looking at it objectively with WAR you're asking him to produce for you a smidge over 10.5 WAR over the course of 5 seasons. If you remove his first partial season and his missed 2016 season, Moustakas has played 5 seasons with at least 500 PAs and produced 11.2 WAR which roughly equals 89.6 Mill. So again, it's not "just one season." He was good in 2015 and 2017 and missed almost all of 2016. If he gives a similar production from his rookie year til now he'll be worth the contract. And again, the timing is pretty right for the Angels. He's 29 YO now which means he'll be 29/30/31 during the three years you're really hoping to compete in the peak ofhis prime as a hitter. 

 

Again, Luxury tax, maybe that changes it for the Angels. I don't pretend to understand the books of the Angels like they're the back of my hand. But I think it would be a really fitting move for them. 

 

47 minutes ago, Blood Brother said:

Also, regarding Moose, he apparently has the Angels as his preferred destination. If he took a discount, I could accept it, but with Boras as his agent, I'm not seeing that. I'm just not sold on him being a good investment for the short-term or long-term. He doesn't dramatically improve the roster IMO and I'm wary of his HR spike in a yr where everybody was hitting hr's. He's a bad bodied 3B who will be entering the wrong side of 30 who doesn't get on base or draw walks. Todd Frazier platooning at 3B with Valbuena is more appealing to me as far as value goes. It sounds like the Angels are trying for Headley which....meh, not really thrilled about that. Rather get Solarte if they're looking for somebody from the Padres

 

I think both the bad side of 30 and doesn't draw walks comments are a bit misleading at least from my perspective. Moustakas will be with Trout for his age 29, 30, and 31 seasons. Is that technically on the wrong side of 30 for about half of that? I mean sure, but for most players those are also prime years. And then he had a career low BB% last year. Yes he got more aggressive and that's obviously the reason for it, but this isn't someone who's just never taken a walk before or refuses to take walks. 7, 7, and 8% rates the three years prior. Had a 7.1% rate in the second half including an 8.96% rate in the last two months of the season. This isn't a guy who just never wlaks at all. 

 

Valbuena? Eh. I like the skill set and liked the skill set last year but he hit under the mendoza line and only hit .210 v. RHP. Sure BA isn't everything, but your suggested platoon of Valbuena and Frazier sounds like it's going to be combining two roster spots for a .215 BA. That's something no team should want to do. Plus, and this is a legitimate question, do you think Frazier would be willing to sign a FA contract to JUST play 1/3 of the time? I don't really think so. And then you could get him as the full time option and I don't even think that'd be a terrible move, and again I'm not fully in on how much the tax means to them, but the difference between 11 AAV and 17 AAV (MLBTR Predictions) isn't *that* much if they evaluate Moose as having the better chance to earn them value. Plus he'll be 32 this season and 34 by the time Trout departs. That's far more on the wrong side of 30. 

 

Same with Solarte. He's a solid player, but he's eclipsed 2.0 WAR once in his career. Moose has done it three times and each of his past two full seasons. So yeah, if you want to go for the cheap option--pick up Solarte. But if you're not willing to throw literally all your chips in the middle then I think you're not going to get the results you want. There's no point in sticking even one toe in the door moving forward IMO-- you've had the greatest player in baseball for what? 7 years now? If you have him for a decade and don't make one legitimate run at it it will just suck for everyone-- from the fans on up. To me this isn't the time to be making bargain moves, its the time to say "We'll cross these problematic bridges when we come to them, lets do quite literally EVERYTHING we can to win a WS in the next three years." Moose's timeline fits that pretty perfectly. 

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Always leary to overpay for a guy who had career year in his walk year...I like what Angels have done this offseason, struck early with a good deal for Upton, trade for Kinsler and getting Ohtani.  I still think their pitching staff top to bottom is among the worst in baseball and that is a problem.  Having Ohtani (if healthy) and doing a 6 man rotation not sure helps this team as other than Garrett Richards, most of these guys are like waiver wire fodder and would be lucky to crack the staff rotation on most teams in the bigs. 

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9 hours ago, taobball said:

 

His argument was as to why the Angels shouldn't do it, not why Moose is overpriced in general. His argument centered around luxury tax structure of the Angels current roster. 


Plus this is just a cop out... 

 

Right but no contract works that way. You don't get to go up to a premium player and say "Hey I wanna pay you while you're young but never when you're old." Every contract or most contracts for FA aged players are built with the idea that you're paying for the front half and you except that they may not live up to expectations in the back half. You're an Angels fan right? I mean this in no bad way whatsoever, but here's a newsflash: pretty strong chance 2021 sucks. You'll still be paying Albert 30 Mil. You'll be paying Upton 23 mil and he'll be three years older *though that could be more reasonable*, and you're going to lose the best player in baseball. Who the hell cares what you pay anyone in 2021+. This organization really needs a major retooling/rebuilding from the ground up similar to what both Chicago teams have done (in different stages) over the past 5+ years, but you can't do that in the last three years you have Trout. So you're currently delaying the rebuild. But once 2021 hits I fully expect the Angels to sell off all they're excess they can, and hope that they can draft well in the meantime to speed up the rebuild. If Moustakas can help you win a championship in the next three years, which I personally believe that he can, then he's worth the money. 

 

Not saying with or without Moose I'd project it, but that's a really strong power+contact bat. The Angels line-up has the potential to look pretty darn good. Moose would fill an obvious hole, right now. 

 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

Well for one who said premium? I sure didn't. But do I think he's a good player? Sure. I was a big fan going into last season. The talent has always been there. He has a rare combination of power and contact which has always been present. He's just matured and evolved as a hitter over the last few years which culminated in last year HR binge. Again: if the Tax effects it, that's one thing. But if we're talking about an 85 Million dollar contract and looking at it objectively with WAR you're asking him to produce for you a smidge over 10.5 WAR over the course of 5 seasons. If you remove his first partial season and his missed 2016 season, Moustakas has played 5 seasons with at least 500 PAs and produced 11.2 WAR which roughly equals 89.6 Mill. So again, it's not "just one season." He was good in 2015 and 2017 and missed almost all of 2016. If he gives a similar production from his rookie year til now he'll be worth the contract. And again, the timing is pretty right for the Angels. He's 29 YO now which means he'll be 29/30/31 during the three years you're really hoping to compete in the peak ofhis prime as a hitter. 

 

Again, Luxury tax, maybe that changes it for the Angels. I don't pretend to understand the books of the Angels like they're the back of my hand. But I think it would be a really fitting move for them. 

 

 

I think both the bad side of 30 and doesn't draw walks comments are a bit misleading at least from my perspective. Moustakas will be with Trout for his age 29, 30, and 31 seasons. Is that technically on the wrong side of 30 for about half of that? I mean sure, but for most players those are also prime years. And then he had a career low BB% last year. Yes he got more aggressive and that's obviously the reason for it, but this isn't someone who's just never taken a walk before or refuses to take walks. 7, 7, and 8% rates the three years prior. Had a 7.1% rate in the second half including an 8.96% rate in the last two months of the season. This isn't a guy who just never wlaks at all. 

 

Valbuena? Eh. I like the skill set and liked the skill set last year but he hit under the mendoza line and only hit .210 v. RHP. Sure BA isn't everything, but your suggested platoon of Valbuena and Frazier sounds like it's going to be combining two roster spots for a .215 BA. That's something no team should want to do. Plus, and this is a legitimate question, do you think Frazier would be willing to sign a FA contract to JUST play 1/3 of the time? I don't really think so. And then you could get him as the full time option and I don't even think that'd be a terrible move, and again I'm not fully in on how much the tax means to them, but the difference between 11 AAV and 17 AAV (MLBTR Predictions) isn't *that* much if they evaluate Moose as having the better chance to earn them value. Plus he'll be 32 this season and 34 by the time Trout departs. That's far more on the wrong side of 30. 

 

Same with Solarte. He's a solid player, but he's eclipsed 2.0 WAR once in his career. Moose has done it three times and each of his past two full seasons. So yeah, if you want to go for the cheap option--pick up Solarte. But if you're not willing to throw literally all your chips in the middle then I think you're not going to get the results you want. There's no point in sticking even one toe in the door moving forward IMO-- you've had the greatest player in baseball for what? 7 years now? If you have him for a decade and don't make one legitimate run at it it will just suck for everyone-- from the fans on up. To me this isn't the time to be making bargain moves, its the time to say "We'll cross these problematic bridges when we come to them, lets do quite literally EVERYTHING we can to win a WS in the next three years." Moose's timeline fits that pretty perfectly. 

 

The Angels just shelled out a ton for Upton, and picked up Kinsler (not cheap).  And making SOME bargain moves doesn't necessarily mean they aren't going all in. Last off-season Eppler made a ton of bargain deals and it worked out great (better than Pujols and Hamilton...sigh).  He's earned the right to not be second-guessed should he pass on Moose.

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4 minutes ago, Magoo said:

 

The Angels just shelled out a ton for Upton, and picked up Kinsler (not cheap).  And making SOME bargain moves doesn't necessarily mean they aren't going all in. Last off-season Eppler made a ton of bargain deals and it worked out great (better than Pujols and Hamilton...sigh).  He's earned the right to not be second-guessed should he pass on Moose.

 

I definitely messed on the wording of that post, but the point there is just that there's no way you can dictate a small number of years to a player of Mooses standing.

 

I never said they HAD to get Moose either. I just don't agree that it would be a bad decision from a baseball perspective as you do. Obviously other moves COULD work out as well or better. I just think this would be a good one for the Angels. You don't that's fine. But that doesn't mean I'm saying that Eppler should be shunned if he doesn't make it or that it's a terrible decision. I just personally believe it's a really good fit.

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The Angels are not one or two bats away in my opinion from winning it all.  It's now a matter of keeping their pitchers healthy for a change.

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3 minutes ago, Magoo said:

The Angels are not one or two bats away in my opinion from winning it all.  It's now a matter of keeping their pitchers healthy for a change.

 

Theres a difference between being the best team in baseball and winning a WS. The Angels aren't really in a position to become the best team in baseball in the next three years or even better than the astros unless you have some startling ideas. That's why I say that they need to rebuild, but they're delaying the project until Trouts gone-- which is fair. But I think you go all in with what you have, and if you can afford Moose I don't see a better option to put in that position. 

 

Thats what im sayin at the end of the day-- if you can afford him it's the best option available to you and sets you up better to make a run at it

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The Angels can't operate on the assumption that Trout is walking after his contract is up. The goal is obviously to convince him to STAY and sign on for another extension. The best way to accomplish that is to build a sustainable winner/contender for the long haul. The past 2 regimes(Reagins and Dipoto) are responsible for why the Angels have been stuck in a bad place during Trout's time in the bigs so far. Eppler has had to navigate around the crap he inherited the past 2 seasons and IMO has been doing a good job so far. Farm system is starting to show promise at the lower levels, they're active again in the international market, and their payroll situation is in good shape going forward(the pujols sunk cost notwithstanding).

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Blood Brother said:

The Angels can't operate on the assumption that Trout is walking after his contract is up. The goal is obviously to convince him to STAY and sign on for another extension. The best way to accomplish that is to build a sustainable winner/contender for the long haul. The past 2 regimes(Reagins and Dipoto) are responsible for why the Angels have been stuck in a bad place during Trout's time in the bigs so far. Eppler has had to navigate around the crap he inherited the past 2 seasons and IMO has been doing a good job so far. Farm system is starting to show promise at the lower levels, they're active again in the international market, and their payroll situation is in good shape going forward(the pujols sunk cost notwithstanding).

 

 

 

Idk, the Nationals are and I think they've retooled their team better for an immediate title run over the course of the last couple years because of it. If Trout staying is a 1% chance are they really going to alter the plan b/c of it? I mean I get what you're saying but I just really really doubt he stays. 

Edited by taobball

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

Idk, the Nationals are and I think they've retooled their team better for an immediate title run over the course of the last couple years because of it. If Trout staying is a 1% chance are they really going to alter the plan b/c of it? I mean I get what you're saying but I just really really doubt he stays. 

Not really sure why you and others are thinking that Trout leaving is almost certainly going to happen. I believe he has 3 years left on his deal and he says he loves playing in Anaheim. Of course he wants to win, which is something we weren't doing much of the last few years, but things are looking up now and 3 years is a long time. Didn't the Cubs go from 100 losses to a championship in 3 years or so? Same with the Astros. Not saying the Angels are in for something like that but I just kinda laugh when people thing he's leaving for sure. It's like all the people around here (LA area) that think the Lakers are gonna pair PG and LeBron. Sure, it could happen, but chances are it probably won't and it's pretty funny to hear all the delusional Laker fans out there that think we'll get a star ever year. Anyways, all I'm saying is I'd give the Angels a chance to show they have something to offer for Trout before they are written off. A lot can change in 3 years, let's see what Trout says 2 years from now and go from there.

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5 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

Not really sure why you and others are thinking that Trout leaving is almost certainly going to happen. I believe he has 3 years left on his deal and he says he loves playing in Anaheim. Of course he wants to win, which is something we weren't doing much of the last few years, but things are looking up now and 3 years is a long time. Didn't the Cubs go from 100 losses to a championship in 3 years or so? Same with the Astros. Not saying the Angels are in for something like that but I just kinda laugh when people thing he's leaving for sure. It's like all the people around here (LA area) that think the Lakers are gonna pair PG and LeBron. Sure, it could happen, but chances are it probably won't and it's pretty funny to hear all the delusional Laker fans out there that think we'll get a star ever year. Anyways, all I'm saying is I'd give the Angels a chance to show they have something to offer for Trout before they are written off. A lot can change in 3 years, let's see what Trout says 2 years from now and go from there.

 

What would be a better way to show Trout something than to win a WS, which is what I'm advocating they try their hardest to do? 

 

Cubs have the best GM/President in the history of professional sports. Where's your Arrieta for Feldman trade or your Rizzo for Cashner trade? Dont' get me wrong, any team can do it, but when you look at the moves the Cubs made to insight that turn around it truly is remarkable... I mean the Astros took Mark Appel #1 the year the Cubs got Kris Bryant at #2. And no one could've predicted the kind of run Arrieta had. They definitely got really lucky. And I dont' know what moves like that the Angels are praying on. 

 

I mean I think Trout leaving LA is a foregone conclusion because I've heard from most people that they believe it's a foregone conclusion. Trout's not Harper-- he's not al about the big market and big city. He doesn't live in LA during the offseason. He flies back to NJ(?) so that he can be closer to family and friends. I think there's a strong possibility he goes to the Northeast. 

 

Of course it's not a foregone conclusion. But I think it's very very likely, and I also don't think that me advocating that the Angels spend more money to try and win a WS in the next three years is exactly something that's going to push him out the door-- I think winning a title would make him more likely to stay. 

 

With all that said-- Cozart may very well have been a better signing. I didn't consider that one and I like it a hell of a lot more than Headley or Solarte. I don't know about his defense at 3rd necessarily compared to SS, but the left side of that infield is insane now defensively. GB pitchers could have a bump up in LAA if some of the pitchers can get their s----- namely their health s----- together. 

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17 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

What would be a better way to show Trout something than to win a WS, which is what I'm advocating they try their hardest to do? 

 

Cubs have the best GM/President in the history of professional sports. Where's your Arrieta for Feldman trade or your Rizzo for Cashner trade? Dont' get me wrong, any team can do it, but when you look at the moves the Cubs made to insight that turn around it truly is remarkable... I mean the Astros took Mark Appel #1 the year the Cubs got Kris Bryant at #2. And no one could've predicted the kind of run Arrieta had. They definitely got really lucky. And I dont' know what moves like that the Angels are praying on. 

 

I mean I think Trout leaving LA is a foregone conclusion because I've heard from most people that they believe it's a foregone conclusion. Trout's not Harper-- he's not al about the big market and big city. He doesn't live in LA during the offseason. He flies back to NJ(?) so that he can be closer to family and friends. I think there's a strong possibility he goes to the Northeast. 

 

Of course it's not a foregone conclusion. But I think it's very very likely, and I also don't think that me advocating that the Angels spend more money to try and win a WS in the next three years is exactly something that's going to push him out the door-- I think winning a title would make him more likely to stay. 

 

With all that said-- Cozart may very well have been a better signing. I didn't consider that one and I like it a hell of a lot more than Headley or Solarte. I don't know about his defense at 3rd necessarily compared to SS, but the left side of that infield is insane now defensively. GB pitchers could have a bump up in LAA if some of the pitchers can get their s----- namely their health s----- together. 

You never know what will happen at the end of the day. Trout is a loyal guy but he is very close with his family and friends back east. I really have no clue whether he'll resign but I'd say the Angels have a decent shot at keeping him. Of course, if I was Trout I wouldn't sign an extension and it' always best to weigh out your options on the open market. Maybe it's just because I'm biased, but I really do feel like if the Angels have a somewhat decent roster and some hope he would resign. They have something going now, just need a couple pitchers and who knows once you get in the playoffs. And if he leaves, he's doing it for the best of his career and I understand that. I won't be bitter, he's given the Angels so much and made so many memories for all of us fans. He's the best player I've ever seen personally, and I hope he stays a Halo but you never know. I like that the Angels are at least trying to do what they can though.

Edited by RedRaider27

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5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Man, I freakin' love Billy Eppler. Go Angels!!! Welcome to the team, Cozart!

 

Congrats to Zach Cozart!  He hit the jackpot.  I think the Angels are going to regret this signing.

 

32 years old with a career BAVG of .246 and OPS of .674 and he somehow comes out with a contract year of .297 and .933.

 

He does provide solid defense.

 

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6 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

Congrats to Zach Cozart!  He hit the jackpot.  I think the Angels are going to regret this signing.

 

32 years old with a career BAVG of .246 and OPS of .674 and he somehow comes out with a contract year of .297 and .933.

 

He does provide solid defense.

 

 

Sure but he's been good with an improved eye and improved power the last two years. Maybe that 12.2% BB% isn't completely legitimate but some part of this I would argue is new skills. I don't think he completely collapses even if he isn't quite what he was last year. His Steamer line of 18 HRs and a .257 BA would be plenty for a plus defensive player, especailly one with flexibliity playing next to Andrelton. 

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25 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

Congrats to Zach Cozart!  He hit the jackpot.  I think the Angels are going to regret this signing.

 

32 years old with a career BAVG of .246 and OPS of .674 and he somehow comes out with a contract year of .297 and .933.

 

He does provide solid defense.

 

He's probably worth his contract, or close to it, if he hits like he has for his career. If he goes off like last year it's a bargain. 

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16 hours ago, jb_power said:

 

Congrats to Zach Cozart!  He hit the jackpot.  I think the Angels are going to regret this signing.

 

32 years old with a career BAVG of .246 and OPS of .674 and he somehow comes out with a contract year of .297 and .933.

 

He does provide solid defense.

 

 

The current cost of a win is estimated at $9 million. Cozart at $12.6 million AAV means he barely needs to surpass 1.5 WAR to be of plus value, which is something he's done each of the past 3 seasons. With Kinsler on a 1yr deal, it's looking likely that after this season they'll shift Cozart to 2B(Angels already said that their original talks with Cozart were for him to play 2B, and then the Tigers called them about a potential Kinsler trade). Moving to 2B after this season puts a bit less emphasis on his bat than it would at 3B, so I'd say all in all it's a pretty safe and reasonable contract. At worse, he doesn't hit well enough to start but can be a super utility guy who can play 2B/3B/SS

 

 

8 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Will they be able to extend Trout long term?

 

lol mevins, you taking a break from asking this in the Harper thread? Angels will certainly have the money to be able to offer Trout another extension, but it's way too early to answer this.

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Scioscia saying they're going 6-man rotation.

 

 

Edited by bbythepier

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Angels are officially using a six-man rotation this season. Sucks for people that want to own Richards and Ohtani.

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