KilloWertz

Luke Weaver 2018 Outlook

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1 minute ago, Ja21 said:

Yeah, but let's be honest here. It'd have to be for the wild-card because the Pirates are taking the division.

well if were being honest here...then thats fine because the wild card is what the front office plays for every year

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43 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

yea not to mention wacha's shoulder issues--could be a good move.

 

if the cards are still in the thick of it though, i can see them moving one of weaver or flaherty for a bat

I doubt they move one of those guys, maybe one of their OF's for Donaldson, like O'neill or Bader

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Loookin to be getting into form, hopefully we have seen the worst stretch he will have this season

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He rebounded, it was looking like a bad start outside of the Ks when he started the 6th inning (5+ ERA and 1.50 WHIP before he retired the last 5 batters he faced).

 

I still feel like he’ll be the odd man out when Reyes & Martinez get back.

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58 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

He rebounded, it was looking like a bad start outside of the Ks when he started the 6th inning (5+ ERA and 1.50 WHIP before he retired the last 5 batters he faced).

 

I still feel like he’ll be the odd man out when Reyes & Martinez get back.

 

It's crazy how good the Cardinals rotation is turning out to be. I guess Weaver has been the worst out of any of them so far, and can Wacha or Flaherty really be taken out of the rotation over Weaver? doesn't seem likely...

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Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I don't get the big rush for them to stick Reyes into the rotation, especially with how good the rotation has been, and how they have some holes in the bullpen.  I know he's a big time prospect and talent, but it's not like Weaver and Flaherty are chopped liver either, and why does Reyes just displace one of them right away when they've both been good?  

 

Reyes has also never gone over around 100-110 IP in a year, and is just coming off major surgery.  Cardinals have post season aspirations, a good rotation already, and Holland blowing up every time he walks out of the bullpen.  Use Reyes in an Andrew Miller/Hader type role, dominate the back end of games, and re-evaluate come playoffs / next injury for a SP.  Gives everyone a fair shake and Reyes gets some time in the pen to get his strength and stamina back.

 

Also maybe I'm out to lunch on this, but seems weird that the GM is making the calls on who starts and who doesn't.  Shouldn't Matheny be the one making the lineup decisions?  Is it normal for a GM to go public and say who will be in the rotation?  

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30 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I don't get the big rush for them to stick Reyes into the rotation, especially with how good the rotation has been, and how they have some holes in the bullpen.  I know he's a big time prospect and talent, but it's not like Weaver and Flaherty are chopped liver either, and why does Reyes just displace one of them right away when they've both been good?  

 

Reyes has also never gone over around 100-110 IP in a year, and is just coming off major surgery.  Cardinals have post season aspirations, a good rotation already, and Holland blowing up every time he walks out of the bullpen.  Use Reyes in an Andrew Miller/Hader type role, dominate the back end of games, and re-evaluate come playoffs / next injury for a SP.  Gives everyone a fair shake and Reyes gets some time in the pen to get his strength and stamina back.

 

Also maybe I'm out to lunch on this, but seems weird that the GM is making the calls on who starts and who doesn't.  Shouldn't Matheny be the one making the lineup decisions?  Is it normal for a GM to go public and say who will be in the rotation?  

 

I would be shocked if they don't do this. But as a Reyes owner, if anyone gets the boot it's probably Weaver. He's been the worst thus far, even though he should be out performing Wacha 

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45 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I don't get the big rush for them to stick Reyes into the rotation, especially with how good the rotation has been, and how they have some holes in the bullpen.  I know he's a big time prospect and talent, but it's not like Weaver and Flaherty are chopped liver either, and why does Reyes just displace one of them right away when they've both been good?  

 

Reyes has also never gone over around 100-110 IP in a year, and is just coming off major surgery.  Cardinals have post season aspirations, a good rotation already, and Holland blowing up every time he walks out of the bullpen.  Use Reyes in an Andrew Miller/Hader type role, dominate the back end of games, and re-evaluate come playoffs / next injury for a SP.  Gives everyone a fair shake and Reyes gets some time in the pen to get his strength and stamina back.

 

Also maybe I'm out to lunch on this, but seems weird that the GM is making the calls on who starts and who doesn't.  Shouldn't Matheny be the one making the lineup decisions?  Is it normal for a GM to go public and say who will be in the rotation?  

You're not in the minority, I don't really get it either. I understand that he's absolutely carved up his MiLB rehab starts, but even so, the rush seems a little extreme, especially when the rotation is already so good. It's not like the team is dying in terms of starting pitching, and desperate for more.

 

I've said this elsewhere, but more than half of the potential rotation guys probably have some length concerns. Going through the rotation in order you've got:

 

  • Wacha: Reliably begins to run out of steam in August/September, probably a function of that chronic shoulder injury.
  • Flaherty: Only 22, there's no way that he's not on some kind of soft/target innings cap.
  • Reyes: Coming back from surgery, also no way he's not on some kind of soft/target innings cap.
  • Weaver: Only threw 138 combined innings last year (lost April to an injury), kind of doubtful they're going to let him push all the way to 200.

 

Which leaves you with Martinez, who's probably good for 200-ish IP but also is coming back from an injury, and Mikolas who technically is coming back from a shorter season league. Both of them will probably be fine though, but even so, that still leaves you with the other four (and God help them if Waino tries to force himself back in as well).

 

Which goes back to what you said, why not use Reyes in a bullpen role? Maybe there's some idea that it'll be better for him to get a consistent workload, rather than the inconsistency of a bullpen job? In which case you could still throw Flaherty in there, or as I and others have suggested, use a six-man rotation or tandem starters (e.g. pair Flaherty and Reyes in "starts" together). But bumping Weaver who's been consistent, for either Flaherty or Reyes who should both be on innings/workload watches just doesn't make that much sense, especially if they think they have a shot at the postseason, when they'd need those guys to not be burned out.

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Call me crazy but I don’t trust him next week vs brewers and pirates.. Seems every time I start him he disappoints. I’d rather start junis Marco and Caleb.

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42 minutes ago, ghostdragon said:

Call me crazy but I don’t trust him next week vs brewers and pirates.. Seems every time I start him he disappoints. I’d rather start junis Marco and Caleb.

He is the NL version of E-Rod

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3 minutes ago, Tugginroot said:

He has to be odd man out now, right??

 

Most likely.

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20 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

Is there any chance he gets sent down or moved to the pen? 

probably to the pen

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I'm holding at least until the Pittsburgh start at home. The Brewers were 4th in the majors in wRC+ in the past two weeks and had scored 25 combined runs two games prior, and another 8 today. He's probably the odd man out once Reyes arrives but I'll cross that bridge when I get there--too much upside to be reactionary over a tough start. 

Edited by varock
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16 hours ago, varock said:

I'm holding at least until the Pittsburgh start at home. The Brewers were 4th in the majors in wRC+ in the past two weeks and had scored 25 combined runs two games prior, and another 8 today. He's probably the odd man out once Reyes arrives but I'll cross that bridge when I get there--too much upside to be reactionary over a tough start. 

He was also terrible in his last few starts last year, control was supposed to be a strong aspect of his pitching, he's walking to many batters and his pitch count is  high early in games. The batters have a game plan against him and he hasn't adjusted

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The fastaball/changeup pitchers always struggle eventually.  The only pitchers that thrive relying on those pitches have changeups from God (e.g. King Felix,  Hamels).  Weaver's is not in that class.  Have to have a consistent breaker.

 

One of the reasons I am not a believer in Luis Castillo.

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