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Jacob deGrom 2018 Outlook

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42 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Lol yes, fangraphs has Torres ranked as 20th most valuable player and deGrom at 25th. But that’s not how this works. That evaluation is looking at the course of their contract. It also is more of a “If you were starting a team today, who would you grab?” It’s not for trade evaluations, because teams have needs. 

Clearly Gleyber is already good, and cheap. But that’s not what @andy1234 is getting at. 

Over the next 2 seasons, deGrom is projected 11.7 WAR, and is relatively affordable. During those same 2 seasons, Gleyber is valued at 5.3 WAR. Gleyber’s value comes from being cheaper, longer. For the next couple seasons, deGrom is who you want if you are trying to win it all.

And this doesn’t even factor in team need. Let’s put a fantasy spin on it. Say I trade JD Martinez for Trea Turner today. Every single trade evaluator would say I lost this trade on value. But what if I told you I was up 22 HRs in 1st (roto), and 10 SBs could catapult me past 3 other teams? The net gain of this trade would far outweigh any loss, based on my team-specific needs. This is essentially the spot the Yankees are in. They have such a need for SP, a move like this would put them over the top (Severino + deGrom as SP 1 & 2, PLUS that offense?!?), and even though Gleyber has more long-term value, deGrom helps this team WAY more.

All that said, of course this type of deal won’t happen anyway. So probably not worth discussing in such great detail. But the main point is, “new franchise” value is different than “who’s more valuable to a certain team, now” value.

a few things

 

first, Not sure why anyone takes these "Projected Wars" as set in stone.  Gleyber, at 21 years old, had a 2.2 WAR this year in 1/3 of a season.  thats over 6 annually if he didnt improve AT ALL.  and why would i think he wont improve? its far more likely that degroms numbers get substantially worse in a bad pitching park in the best hitting division in baseball.  not to mention 30 year old pitchers dont have the best track records of staying healthy.

 

2nd, the fantasy point matters to us because we own these guys...but it doesnt matter to GMs in real life.

 

3rd, yanks arent desperate like the cubs were.  what you are basically saying is  "your grass is long so you should trade your BMW for a lawn mower.....John Deere has all the leverage here!".  you arent trading 30k for 3k unless your life depends on the lawn mower.  and thats not the case for the yankees.  they have hit a rough patch  (and the sox have been insanely hot) and are still in position to host the wild card game against SEA or OAK.

 

 

Edited by jfazz23

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

a few things

 

first, Not sure why anyone takes these "Projected Wars" as set in stone.  Gleyber, at 21 years old, had a 2.2 WAR this year in 1/3 of a season.  thats over 6 annually if he didnt improve AT ALL.  and why would i think he wont improve? its far more likely that degroms numbers get substantially worse in a bad pitching park in the best hitting division in baseball.  not to mention 30 year old pitchers dont have the best track records of staying healthy.

 

2nd, the fantasy point matters to us because we own these guys...but it doesnt matter to GMs in real life.

 

3rd, yanks arent desperate like the cubs were.  what you are basically saying is  "your grass is long so you should trade your BMW for a lawn mower".  you arent trading 30k for 3k unless your life depends on the lawn mower.  and thats not the case for the yankees.  they have hit a rough patch  (and the sox have been insanely hot) and are still in position to host the wild card game against SEA or OAK.

 

 

 

I agree bro! As someone else said, he's losing value by the minute! I'm still thinking that Ellsbury and now Gray is a good idea here. By the time ST rolls around it would turn out to be a damn fair trade for both teams!

 

On a serious note here. Turns out that JP Ricciardi was the one that executed that Familia trade. Apparently he knows one of those prospects father and thinks he's a good kid. The Mets do not have a GM in place. They are not making any major trades without a GM. The three stooges that they have running the team now will not be here next season. Omar Minaya apparently told Mike Francesca this over the weekend. I'd be shocked if DeGrom or Syndergaard gets traded before the Winter Meetings. 

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22 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

a few things

 

first, Not sure why anyone takes these "Projected Wars" as set in stone.  Gleyber, at 21 years old, had a 2.2 WAR this year in 1/3 of a season.  thats over 6 annually if he didnt improve AT ALL.  and why would i think he wont improve? its far more likely that degroms numbers get substantially worse in a bad pitching park in the best hitting division in baseball.  not to mention 30 year old pitchers dont have the best track records of staying healthy.

 

2nd, the fantasy point matters to us because we own these guys...but it doesnt matter to GMs in real life.

 

3rd, yanks arent desperate like the cubs were.  what you are basically saying is  "your grass is long so you should trade your BMW for a lawn mower.....John Deere has all the leverage here!".  you arent trading 30k for 3k unless your life depends on the lawn mower.  and thats not the case for the yankees.  they have hit a rough patch  (and the sox have been insanely hot) and are still in position to host the wild card game against SEA or OAK.

 

 

1) @jfazz23 Bruh. You know where those projected WAR come from? The “3rd party evaluation” YOU cited. Lol. That’s how they create these valuations. So apparently you took these future WAR projections seriously just earlier today. 

2) They rank 20 & 25. I’d say the “BMW/lawn mower” analogy is...a bit of a stretch.

3) We disagree on their desperation. They win a one-game playoff with Sev. Then what? Tanaka & CC are both going 2 starts if they go 7 games? Yikes.

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39 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

i agree the deal probably wont happen.

 

which is really dumb for the mets because his value is dropping every second they hold him.

 

This may be a shock to Yankees fans, but other teams do exist, to which the Mets could trade him.

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37 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

I agree bro! As someone else said, he's losing value by the minute! I'm still thinking that Ellsbury and now Gray is a good idea here. By the time ST rolls around it would turn out to be a damn fair trade for both teams!

 

On a serious note here. Turns out that JP Ricciardi was the one that executed that Familia trade. Apparently he knows one of those prospects father and thinks he's a good kid. The Mets do not have a GM in place. They are not making any major trades without a GM. The three stooges that they have running the team now will not be here next season. Omar Minaya apparently told Mike Francesca this over the weekend. I'd be shocked if DeGrom or Syndergaard gets traded before the Winter Meetings. 

hilarious. 

 

17 minutes ago, RotoGenius said:

 

This may be a shock to Yankees fans, but other teams do exist, to which the Mets could trade him.

 

and none of them will give a better package than the yanks could.

 

im sure the bluejays cant wait to give up vlad jr and bichette

 

or the whitesox to give up eloy and kopech.

 

 

21 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

1) @jfazz23 Bruh. You know where those projected WAR come from? The “3rd party evaluation” YOU cited. Lol. That’s how they create these valuations. So apparently you took these future WAR projections seriously just earlier today. 

2) They rank 20 & 25. I’d say the “BMW/lawn mower” analogy is...a bit of a stretch.

3) We disagree on their desperation. They win a one-game playoff with Sev. Then what? Tanaka & CC are both going 2 starts if they go 7 games? Yikes.

1- so we should disregard that torres is ranked higher but then use their War estimate? sounds far...

2- its the point tho.  how about a 25k mustang for a 20k truck.

3-agree to disagree then.  they did it last year and the season is far from over.  boston is playing tremendous and the yankees arent....including a few injuries.  a ja happ and justus sheffield may be enough to take the division...

Edited by jfazz23

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Oh I so hope the Yankees get JA Happ.  The Sox loved beating him up last time they played Toronto.  And some untested prospect is going to save the Yankee roation?  i don't think so.

 

A top starting ace is worth more than a good position player any old time.

 

And other team can indeed put together better packages than the Yankees UNLESS the Yankees trade Torres in the package deal.  Do you have any idea how stacked the Braves, Phillies, Astros and Dodgers organizations are?

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Just now, The Big Bat Theory said:

Oh I so hope the Yankees get JA Happ.  The Sox loved beating him up last time they played Toronto.  And some untested prospect is going to save the Yankee roation?  i don't think so.

 

A top starting ace is worth more than a good position player any old time.

 

And other team can indeed put together better packages than the Yankees UNLESS the Yankees trade Torres in the package deal.  Do you have any idea how stacked the Braves, Phillies, Astros and Dodgers organizations are?

why would mets trade within the division.  astros do not need a SP they need bullpen.

 

dodgers just traded a big prospect for machado and the yanks farm is superior.  

 

give me a package that beats andujar, sheffield, florial, frazier and maybe an add on like adams or abreu.  tbh i think thats too much as some other yanks fans have said.

 

now will the yankees do this?  i doubt it...so i concede the trade probably wont happen...to any team.

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9 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Oh I so hope the Yankees get JA Happ.  The Sox loved beating him up last time they played Toronto.  And some untested prospect is going to save the Yankee roation?  i don't think so.

 

A top starting ace is worth more than a good position player any old time.

 

And other team can indeed put together better packages than the Yankees UNLESS the Yankees trade Torres in the package deal.  Do you have any idea how stacked the Braves, Phillies, Astros and Dodgers organizations are?

You were all giddy when happ pitched the last time against Boston. The problem all those 5 runs were unearned. 

So in 2018 Happ has pitched 10.2 innings given up 1 run

in 2017 Happ pitched 23.2 innings against Boston gave up only 5 runs 

 

get a calculator and tell me Happ’s era the last two years is against Boston. 

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

why would mets trade within the division.  astros do not need a SP they need bullpen.

 

dodgers just traded a big prospect for machado and the yanks farm is superior.  

 

give me a package that beats andujar, sheffield, florial, frazier and maybe an add on like adams or abreu.  tbh i think thats too much as some other yanks fans have said.

 

now will the yankees do this?  i doubt it...so i concede the trade probably wont happen...to any team.

 

Why wouldn't the Mets trade within their division.  They aren't going to be competitive for the next 3 or 4 years.  Besides the Braves or Phillies could have a deal with another club pre-arranged so if that club gets deGrom they give that club a mega-deal in return.

 

Frazier has no real super value at this point.  And that package is way WAY to low to get deGrom for not only this year but for 2 more.  Florial, yes.  Sheffield who knows for sure.  Prospect pitchers are a total crap shoot.  Maybe or maybe not a great future pitcher. 

 

DeGrom is NOT a mere rental.  He is the MOST sought after starter in major league baseball right now at a time where both Kershaw and now apparently Kluber seem to have injury issues which raises deGrom's status to maybe 3rd behind Max and Sale. 

 

And the package the Sox gave for Sale -- Moncado (when he was the Torres of the prospects that year ranked number one on some hitting prospect lists) plus Kopech plus Basebe plus another slipping my mind right now -- wouldn't be enough this season.  The price for an ace has gone up in the two years since.

 

And no the Yankees farm system isn't the most superior.  They have some really good prospects but they aren't top of the heap especially since Torres and Anduhar are already out of the farm system now.

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Just now, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Why wouldn't the Mets trade within their division.  They aren't going to be competitive for the next 3 or 4 years.  Besides the Braves or Phillies could have a deal with another club pre-arranged so if that club gets deGrom they give that club a mega-deal in return.

 

Frazier has no real super value at this point.  And that package is way WAY to low to get deGrom for not only this year but for 2 more.  Florial, yes.  Sheffield who knows for sure.  Prospect pitchers are a total crap shoot.  Maybe or maybe not a great future pitcher. 

 

DeGrom is NOT a mere rental.  He is the MOST sought after starter in major league baseball right now at a time where both Kershaw and now apparently Kluber seem to have injury issues which raises deGrom's status to maybe 3rd behind Max and Sale. 

 

And the package the Sox gave for Sale -- Moncado (when he was the Torres of the prospects that year ranked number one on some hitting prospect lists) plus Kopech plus Basebe plus another slipping my mind right now -- wouldn't be enough this season.  The price for an ace has gone up in the two years since.

 

And no the Yankees farm system isn't the most superior.  They have some really good prospects but they aren't top of the heap especially since Torres and Anduhar are already out of the farm system now.

so where would you value andujar now if he were a prospect?

 

anyways im pretty much done discussing this.  hes prob not going anywhere because that would be a good move for the mets, which means the mets will not do it.

 

 

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30 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

and none of them will give a better package than the yanks could.

 

Talk about a double-standard. The real question is if other teams will give a better package than what the Yankees will.

 

And if the Yankees won't give up Torres or Sheffield/Andujar/+, other teams will almost certainly be willing to give up more.

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1 minute ago, RotoGenius said:

 

Talk about a double-standard. The real question is if other teams will give a better package than what the Yankees will.

 

And if the Yankees won't give up Torres or Sheffield/Andujar/+, other teams will almost certainly be willing to give up more.

i included sheffield AND andujar along with frazier and florial and abreu/medina/adams

 

Just now, shakestreet said:

Do You think the Mets brass would take Torres for DeGrom? 

 

 

they would probably want sheffield too because they are the mets

 

but im confident the yanks wouldnt trade torres even straight up.  i think the andujar/sheffield untouchable talk is just posturing/negotiating tactic by Cashman

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20 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Oh I so hope the Yankees get JA Happ.  The Sox loved beating him up last time they played Toronto.  And some untested prospect is going to save the Yankee roation?  i don't think so.

 

A top starting ace is worth more than a good position player any old time.

 

And other team can indeed put together better packages than the Yankees UNLESS the Yankees trade Torres in the package deal.  Do you have any idea how stacked the Braves, Phillies, Astros and Dodgers organizations are?

Happ v. BOS 2018-

2 games, 10.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 16 K

0.84 ERA, 0.94 WHIP

 

Happ career v. BOS-

19 games, 2.98 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

 

Way off topic. I apologize. But that’s a silly comment. Careful what you wish for.

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3 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Happ v. BOS 2018-

2 games, 10.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 16 K

0.84 ERA, 0.94 WHIP

 

Happ career v. BOS-

19 games, 2.98 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

 

Way off topic. I apologize. But that’s a silly comment. Careful what you wish for.

thanks.  but its not just boston. yanks have to start beating tampa and baltimore and KC because boston is really taking it to those teams.

 

so im not opposed to happ taking over for Domingo German.  its way more reliastic than Degrom.

 

Like i said, i think Degrom finishes the year with the Mets.  which is probably good for DEgrom owners in QS leagues but terrible in W leagues

Edited by jfazz23

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Agreed. Back to deGrom, he ain’t going anywhere. I read someone who suggested it would really have to be brewing already, because of the work it would take to get familiar with others systems. They won’t do that in one week.

Add on top of that the incompetence of the Mets, who would have the market cornered on an ace SP and could create quite the bidding war. 

Instead, he’s going to be stuck with the Mets.

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32 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

i included sheffield AND andujar along with frazier and florial and abreu/medina/adams

 

they would probably want sheffield too because they are the mets

 

but im confident the yanks wouldnt trade torres even straight up.  i think the andujar/sheffield untouchable talk is just posturing/negotiating tactic by Cashman

Its a very good offer..but good SP on a reasonable deal seems to net a franchise upside hitter. We saw Quinten go for Eloy, Sale for Moncada/Kopech.  Its safe to say asking for an elite hitting prospect/talent is the starting point for getting a deal done.

 

Since pitching prospects, despite the payoff of one turning out being excellent. Are higher risk. While the odd of getting quality ROI on hitting prospects curves sharply after the elite.

 

The Astro's getting Cole was less, but Cole was coming off a bad year. Verlander obviously didn't come with the good contract.

Edited by Slatykamora

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13 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Its a very good offer..but good SP on a reasonable deal seems to net a franchise upside hitter. We saw Quinten go for Eloy, Sale for Moncada/Kopech.  Its safe to say asking for an elite hitting prospect/talent is the starting point for getting a deal done.

 

Since pitching prospects, despite the payoff of one turning out being excellent. Are higher risk. While the odd of getting quality ROI on hitting prospects curves sharply after the elite.

 

The Astro's getting Cole was less, but Cole was coming off a bad year. Verlander obviously didn't come with the good contract.

ya its not a ridiculous line of thinking, which is why i dont think a trade happens for degrom or noah at all...with any team

 

id say andujar right now is worth similar to eloy or moncada and if your adding in the other 4 guys you go yourself a monster package.

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23 hours ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

Just curious, who would you give up for DeGrom? Ellsbury and maybe Tyler Wade? Or is that too much?

At this point, we dont go for deGrom because it hurts the farm too much. 

 

Cashman won’t let Torres go. I personally don’t think we should trade Andujar neither but he may be the guy they trade. The house seems to like Sheffield so I dont think he gets traded....florial, clint and andujar would be the pieces ... as a fan my opinion stays to not to go for de grom if we have to clear the farm. De Grom is a stud regardless and would be an asset no question though

Edited by Steelers72
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What the hell is up with this team when DeGrom is on the mound?

 

They scored:

 

4 runs friday

12 runs Thursday 

6 runs Wednesday 

6 runs Tuesday 

2 runs Monday (DeGrom’s last start)

 

Through 6 innings tonight they have 0 runs.

i just can’t wrap my head around it. 

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10 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

What the hell is up with this team when DeGrom is on the mound?

 

They scored:

 

4 runs friday

12 runs Thursday 

6 runs Wednesday 

6 runs Tuesday 

2 runs Monday (DeGrom’s last start)

 

Through 6 innings tonight they have 0 runs.

i just can’t wrap my head around it. 

 

Sometimes in games you'll see a team score runs in an inning to break the 0-0 tie, and then the other team comes right back and ties it up next inning. They approach the inning with the mindset of "we have to hit, get these runs back, and get us in the game".

 

I imagine it's probably the opposite with DeGrom. The guys say "Jacob's on the mound tonight, should be a quick game". It's not like they're getting shut down by world beaters - it's Trevor Williams tonight. They need a kick in the pants.

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