2ndCitySox

Zack Godley 2018 Outlook

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Dude is probably gonna try to nibble his way through the lineup and give up a lot of walks..... I have little confidence.

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I'm playing him. I've got nothing to lose playing him though. If I were in jeopardy of losing ERA or WHIP stats, I'd sit him.

Edited by Maitiu

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Kind of a one trick pony that the league might have figured out.  Curveball out of the zone seems to be his only plus pitch.

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1 minute ago, B&F said:

Kind of a one trick pony that the league might have figured out.  Curveball out of the zone seems to be his only plus pitch.

 

Yup. I bought into the notion that he was going to be a breakout pitcher this year and be a borderline number 2. But if you look at his stats from last it seems like the league already started to figure him out in the second half when his whip went up to 1.30 and his ERA went up as well. almost every at bat goes to 3-2 because he nibbles and hitters are not swinging at his curveball anymore.

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Regret starting this guy tonight, and I'm afraid all the hype was ill-founded. I honestly thought I would end up with a solid SP2 this year...looking every start like I was wrong. He's been abysmal since those first two starts. 

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14 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

I'm starting him, but expecting him to give up roughly 4 ER in 6 innings.

 

Nailed that.

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He's starting to look like Danny Salazar without the strikeouts.

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8 hours ago, Evincar said:

He's starting to look like Danny Salazar without the strikeouts.

 

He looks nothing like Salazar.

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My opponent has him. I hope he gets shelled. I think he's against the Mets though. And u basically start him 90% of the time.

Edited by dkrocka

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Did anyone see him pitch last night? How did he look? The four walks sounds worrisome. 

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3 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Did anyone see him pitch last night? How did he look? The four walks sounds worrisome. 

Very wild. He would paint the corner and then throw a pitch that was 4 feet away from the plate. A lot of deep counts. Even the broadcasters commented on it. 

 

He's a solid SP3 in 12-team leagues. 

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3 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Very wild. He would paint the corner and then throw a pitch that was 4 feet away from the plate. A lot of deep counts. Even the broadcasters commented on it. 

 

He's a solid SP3 in 12-team leagues. 

 

Ugh. Thanks.

 

I question if he's really a solid SP3. That makes him a top 36 pitcher, and he hasn't been that thus far. His WHIP is hurting me...it's 1.57 over the last month. 

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7 minutes ago, Jimmymckrack said:

 Yeah I’m not too sure about the SP3 Designation.   One thing is for sure, he is not returning his draft day  value .

He should finish as an SP3. Pitcherlist has him ranked way higher than that, but that doesn't make much sense to me.

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45 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Ugh. Thanks.

 

I question if he's really a solid SP3. That makes him a top 36 pitcher, and he hasn't been that thus far. His WHIP is hurting me...it's 1.57 over the last month. 

 

Did you just decimate baseball teams?  Solid SP3 means that there are 2 starters better on most all baseball teams then he falls somewhere into the third tier 60 to 90 range.  I think he is better than that because he has shown he is better than that.  He did well enough last night and needs to improve but he shows he can improve. 

 

Not worried about him at all because all pitchers seem to go though slumps just as hitters do.  But because a starter only pitches every 5th game it just takes more time to come out of it than an everyday player.  So for me a pitcher's slump has to last a lot longer to bring up concern. 

 

Sure I bench pitchers sometimes when they are in slumps but I do that for hitters too.  That is why there is a bench.  But the ones I don;t wan ton my team are the ones that either have either higher than desired ERAs and/or WHIPs year in and year out like Shark or Matt Moore.  They are the ones that never improve because they never have improved.

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3 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Did you just decimate baseball teams?  Solid SP3 means that there are 2 starters better on most all baseball teams then he falls somewhere into the third tier 60 to 90 range.  I think he is better than that because he has shown he is better than that.  He did well enough last night and needs to improve but he shows he can improve. 

 

Not worried about him at all because all pitchers seem to go though slumps just as hitters do.  But because a starter only pitches every 5th game it just takes more time to come out of it than an everyday player.  So for me a pitcher's slump has to last a lot longer to bring up concern. 

 

Sure I bench pitchers sometimes when they are in slumps but I do that for hitters too.  That is why there is a bench.  But the ones I don;t wan ton my team are the ones that either have either higher than desired ERAs and/or WHIPs year in and year out like Shark or Matt Moore.  They are the ones that never improve because they never have improved.

 

No, SP3 means he's ranked anywhere from 25th thru 36th in a 12-teamer, 29th thru 42nd in a 14-teamer, etc. The term "SP3" relates to the fantasy world, not the MLB world. 

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6 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Did you just decimate baseball teams?  Solid SP3 means that there are 2 starters better on most all baseball teams then he falls somewhere into the third tier 60 to 90 range.  I think he is better than that because he has shown he is better than that.  He did well enough last night and needs to improve but he shows he can improve. 

 

Not worried about him at all because all pitchers seem to go though slumps just as hitters do.  But because a starter only pitches every 5th game it just takes more time to come out of it than an everyday player.  So for me a pitcher's slump has to last a lot longer to bring up concern. 

 

Sure I bench pitchers sometimes when they are in slumps but I do that for hitters too.  That is why there is a bench.  But the ones I don;t wan ton my team are the ones that either have either higher than desired ERAs and/or WHIPs year in and year out like Shark or Matt Moore.  They are the ones that never improve because they never have improved.

Godley has had a 4.00era and a 1.4 whip since the second half of last season. I think there is reason for concern. His whiff rates have steadily declined and his walk rate has regressed to his career marks. The Mets who are 11th in strikeout, godley had a 9.4% whiff rate against them last night. 

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never understood the pre season hype on Godley

 

had him ranked #61 down it the tier with Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray and Tallion

 

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21 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

No, SP3 means he's ranked anywhere from 25th thru 36th in a 12-teamer, 29th thru 42nd in a 14-teamer, etc. The term "SP3" relates to the fantasy world, not the MLB world. 

 

Ah, you mean in shallow fantasy leagues, not real baseball.  Gotcha.  Thanks.

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4 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Ah, you mean in shallow fantasy leagues, not real baseball.  Gotcha.  Thanks.

 

Not talking about shallow or deep...just talking about fantasy leagues and the way the RW forums have typically referred to players. 

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So I think most of us are pretty frustrated with Godley this year.  Last time out he walked a bunch of dudes (again), leading to the poor WHIP.  Gets Milwaukee today at Milwaukee.  

 

Start or sit?  Also, someone give me hope for the future here, cause when I look under the hood I see a lot of mediocrity.

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36 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

So I think most of us are pretty frustrated with Godley this year.  Last time out he walked a bunch of dudes (again), leading to the poor WHIP.  Gets Milwaukee today at Milwaukee.  

 

Start or sit?  Also, someone give me hope for the future here, cause when I look under the hood I see a lot of mediocrity.

 

I'm starting.  MIL is 8th in most strikeouts on the season, so I'm rolling with Godley.

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I'm not sure I would say it's all mediocrity, but he's definitely trending more towards a middle of the rotation fantasy guy than someone with top shelf upside like some of us were hoping.  Right now his 3.83 ERA is pretty close to in line with his xFIP, and about a half a run worse than last year.  Looking at his peripherals really the only thing that stands out is he's down about 1 K/9 and up about 1 BB/9 from last year.

 

Looking a bit deeper at his pitch usage and outcomes, it seems like all of his issues in 2018 that have seen him regress from his 2017 form have to do with his curveball.  One of the big positive changes he made for 2017 was a huge increase in usage of his curveball, and he's continued that trend in 2018.  However, he's getting fewer swings and misses and batters are hitting for a better AVG against his curve this year.  Batters are swinging at his curve 8% less, whiffing 6% less of the time when they are swinging, and hitting .240 on curves vs .160 on it a year ago.  Where his curveball last year (and previous to that) had graded out as a plus pitch, this year it is actually very slightly worse than the 'average' CB.  

 

I guess the big question, and one that I don't really know the answer to, is why the curveball has been so ineffective.  The velocity and movement all look very similar to last year.  Looking at his zone profile for his CB, obviously a majority of them miss the strike zone low, which is the intention.  But the obvious difference between 2017 and 2018 curveballs is that batters are getting wise to him - they aren't chasing down out of the zone as much, and they are whiffing less because of it.  In 2017 Godley was getting a 65% swing rate on curves directly below the zone, but in 2018 that has dropped to 49%.  His 2017 Whiff rate directly below the strike zone was 35%, and that has dropped in 2018 to 28%.  

 

Basically, batters have adjusted to Zack Godley's curveball, and the results so far aren't that great.  What was his bread and butter last year is now an offering that batters are getting used to, and laying off.  It's not fooling them as much anymore - and that most likely accounts for the extra walks and lower K's that we're seeing, as batters are watching those low curves go by them for balls instead of swinging for strikes.  The really interesting part will be to see if Godley can make his own adjustments and gain that 0.5 ER back.  

 

TL;DR

- Godley's curveball isn't fooling batters as often as it was last year

- Batters aren't chasing his CB out of the zone the same as last year

- Result is more walks and fewer K's

- Overall AVG vs CB is on the rise since batters are being more selective about which ones to swing at

- Can/will Godley adjust??

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Probably a start and hope for the best. Mil is actually below league average for runs, hits, walks, and k's. Offense hasn't been great...

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