duke of queens

New York Mets 2018 Outlook

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

i think the opposite.  there is nothing worse than being a consistent 82 win team

 

they should trade degrom and Noah and get YUGE returns....be a competitor in 2019/2020

You think they could be competitive in 2019 if they trade their two best pitchers?

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2 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

You think they could be competitive in 2019 if they trade their two best pitchers?

maybe it takes until 2020/2021 but it happened that quick for yankees.

 

and then you free up salary and you sign a few FA to fill in the blanks. maybe even try to move cespedes to lets say the giants.

build your offense around conforto and young players...sign a FA bat in 2020 as needed.  maybe you trade degrom and keep noah and hope some young pitchers develop

 

i mean, im reading they just signed omar minaya as assistant GM....its like, at best, they are treading water.

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They were in the playoffs in 2015 and 2016. They were hit by injuries last year. If they just grab another bat or two they're a strong playoff contender if they can stay healthy. 

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18 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

This is spot on.  This franchise is disgustingly cheap.  They lost money, that's on them.  if they can't afford to run the business properly now it should be sold.  They are making plenty and this is their window.  If I'm wrong about making plenty (which I doubt) spending will increase the value of the franchise, which even if that is wrong is substantial.  This is their best shot at years and they are playing this like they want to have a chance at a wildcard.  You don't get many shots at the WS - take this shot.

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I don't buy the feeling sorry for Wilpons with the Madoff losses. They are still billionaires and probably haven't felt a fraction of the real life pain many others did due to Madoff. If they really are in trouble the team should be sold to make the Wilpon's whole again.

 

The other part that annoys me with payroll is that the payroll has been below expectations for so many consecutive years, when will the money saved in previous years start to be filtered back into the franchise? Last year when they sold all of their veterans for no real prospects so they could get more money in the trade, where is that money?

 

I really do think the Wilpon's want the best for the team. The problem is the one thing that will help this team the most is the one thing they will never do - sell the team.

 

In other news, Omar Minaya is back in the fold as an assistant to Alderson. I am a fan of Alderson and Minaya, so I think this should help. Alderson has done well in a tough situation, and Minaya is largely responsible for the core of the team the last few years. It will just come down to payroll in the end. If they remain an average payroll team they will have ups and downs, but if they start spending like a big market team, they should be able to sustain pretty consistent success.

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 As much fun as it is to poke fun at the Mets - I can't help but think they clinch a WC next year.They have a reasonably talented roster - great top 2 starters. And a lineup whose viability admittedly hinges on Conforto's health-  A big if I know but still a reasonable gamble considering  his talent -Like a lot of others I love this guy's bat and really really hope we see him for as close to a full season as possible. This team was absolutely pillaged by injuries last year to the point where it was borderline comical and I think if you're fair you would have to admit that no team could have been remotely competitive under similar circumstances. If they can just stay healthy (yes I know you can say this about quite a few teams but still) they have enough to be competitive and it wouldn't shock me if they won 88 games. They did pull off 87 wins in 2016 so not too crazy. Its not so much that I think that the Mets are a stacked team by any means but its that I feel that if healthy across most of the season they are much better than what they were last year and also as of now this is a division that can be had in that its still weak when you considering the Marlins bottoming out, the Phils having a pretty weak staff outside of Nola, Braves pitching doesn't impress me either. Nats should of course be the fav to win the div but it wouldn't surprise me if the Mets make it tough on them all year and make a push at the division to end the year. Swarzak and a full year out of Familia should aid the pen a ton although I'd still be looking for more help there. Maybe pick up another starter in free agency- not a lot of quality names out there that I know of but I'd consider giving a guy like Cahill a 1 year "prove it" deal of sorts- think he'd come pretty cheap so not a terrible gamble imo. He was hurt last year but he did have a really good stretch early in the year with the Pads.

Yep Mets in the 2018 playoffs better make it a blue and orange dragon @Fuzzy_Slippers

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Sorry but I don't remotely see how the Mets have any shot at the playoffs in 2018.  They have one reliable great starter (deGrom) and a long shot (in my opinion) in Thor who I don't think will remain healthy.  No how no way will he be the answer with his history and the current Mets Medical Staff (oxymoron much) in place to assure his continued demise.  Even if by some miracle he remains healthy the rest of the the Mets staff after their top two is total garbage.

 

Hitting?  They have a good, young shortstop but not a top 5 one.  Comforto seems to have the possibility of being just a pretty good regular outfielder you'd find on most any team, not some superstar.

 

There are only five openings into the playoffs.  Two are blocked because they belong to the winners of the NL Central and West.  For the sake of argument let us say that last year's division winners repeat.  If they do NOT repeat they are favorites for a wild card slot for sure.  So that gives us three slots filled immediately in:

 

Dodgers - Still NL West favorites but at least wildcard team if the D-Backs take the next step.

 

Nats - NL East is almost a given barring half the team going down to major injuries.

 

Cubs - Will have hard competition again this season from Brewers and especially the re-vamping Cards but have the horses to either win or grab a wildcard slot still and Theo is just warming up.

 

Remove those three and their almost givens to either a division title and/or wildcard slot and we have the following teams for the two remaining slots:

 

Diamondbacks - really strong FIVE man rotation, not just a couple of good starters.  Goldy and friends with bats.  If JD re-signs just hand them a slot now.

 

Cardinals - missing a few pieces last year, been gearing up in the off season with Ozuna and strong bullpen rebuild.  Alex Reyes comes back this season.  They are still making moves too.

 

Brewers - these guys aren't one year wonders and they have been adding some support troops already and have some nice farmhands to bring up soon as well.

 

Rockies - Bats 'R' Us at home and decent enough pitching not to collapse on the road led by Jon Gray.

 

So three out of four of these teams would have to hit the skids really really hard for the Mets to even smell an opening. 

 

And I like the young Phillies way more than the Mets.  And, unlike the Mets, if they start out well they are likely to make a trade for a good pitcher or two.  They have lots of money too to make a move or two before Opening Day.  Hell they even signed Carlos Santana already while the Mets twiddled their thumbs.  Jack up their pitching staff by a couple of signings and they are good to go with Nola and Eickhoff.  Of course Eickhoff will have to make his comeback as well but if people want to pencil in Thor I will pencil in Eickhoff.

 

Cincy is quietly building something.  They are getting sneaky decent faster than I thought last season and Luis Castillo looks like the real deal.  Add him to a recovered DeSclafani (another recovering pitcher, many teams have them) and that is a nice one-two punch as well. 

 

Outliers like the Braves and Padres (both rebuilding) have about as much chance as the Mets.  With the Braves I think more because I like their young arms on the rise and they have a decent line-up in place when you add in Acuna with a keystone/clubhouse leader and top player in Freeman. 

 

Sorry but I really don't see any kind of contender at all with the Mets.  I just see a team going in the wrong direction, quickly, with no front office willing to reverse this trend.  I would think only the Marlins would finish behind them in the NL East this season.

 

The Mets ownership should either sell the team if they are still whining about being idiots with Madoff and boo-hoo this and that or step up and start acting like owners of a MLB team in a big market.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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2017 opening day payroll the Mets ranked 12th with a 155m. With the payroll luxury tax it has become harder to say a big market team can just spend more. Though being fair the Mets did dump a bunch going into this season but then a lot of teams are creating room for next years free agent class.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Low and Away said:

2017 opening day payroll the Mets ranked 12th with a 155m. With the payroll luxury tax it has become harder to say a big market team can just spend more. Though being fair the Mets did dump a bunch going into this season but then a lot of teams are creating room for next years free agent class.

 

 

Knock 15 mil off that in insurance money given back due to Wright not playing 60 games.

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10 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Sorry but I don't remotely see how the Mets have any shot at the playoffs in 2018.  They have one reliable great starter (deGrom) and a long shot (in my opinion) in Thor who I don't think will remain healthy.  No how no way will he be the answer with his history and the current Mets Medical Staff (oxymoron much) in place to assure his continued demise.  Even if by some miracle he remains healthy the rest of the the Mets staff after their top two is total garbage.

 

Hitting?  They have a good, young shortstop but not a top 5 one.  Comforto seems to have the possibility of being just a pretty good regular outfielder you'd find on most any team, not some superstar.

 

There are only five openings into the playoffs.  Two are blocked because they belong to the winners of the NL Central and West.  For the sake of argument let us say that last year's division winners repeat.  If they do NOT repeat they are favorites for a wild card slot for sure.  So that gives us three slots filled immediately in:

 

Dodgers - Still NL West favorites but at least wildcard team if the D-Backs take the next step.

 

Nats - NL East is almost a given barring half the team going down to major injuries.

 

Cubs - Will have hard competition again this season from Brewers and especially the re-vamping Cards but have the horses to either win or grab a wildcard slot still and Theo is just warming up.

 

Remove those three and their almost givens to either a division title and/or wildcard slot and we have the following teams for the two remaining slots:

 

Diamondbacks - really strong FIVE man rotation, not just a couple of good starters.  Goldy and friends with bats.  If JD re-signs just hand them a slot now.

 

Cardinals - missing a few pieces last year, been gearing up in the off season with Ozuna and strong bullpen rebuild.  Alex Reyes comes back this season.  They are still making moves too.

 

Brewers - these guys aren't one year wonders and they have been adding some support troops already and have some nice farmhands to bring up soon as well.

 

Rockies - Bats 'R' Us at home and decent enough pitching not to collapse on the road led by Jon Gray.

 

So three out of four of these teams would have to hit the skids really really hard for the Mets to even smell an opening. 

 

And I like the young Phillies way more than the Mets.  And, unlike the Mets, if they start out well they are likely to make a trade for a good pitcher or two.  They have lots of money too to make a move or two before Opening Day.  Hell they even signed Carlos Santana already while the Mets twiddled their thumbs.  Jack up their pitching staff by a couple of signings and they are good to go with Nola and Eickhoff.  Of course Eickhoff will have to make his comeback as well but if people want to pencil in Thor I will pencil in Eickhoff.

 

Cincy is quietly building something.  They are getting sneaky decent faster than I thought last season and Luis Castillo looks like the real deal.  Add him to a recovered DeSclafani (another recovering pitcher, many teams have them) and that is a nice one-two punch as well. 

 

Outliers like the Braves and Padres (both rebuilding) have about as much chance as the Mets.  With the Braves I think more because I like their young arms on the rise and they have a decent line-up in place when you add in Acuna with a keystone/clubhouse leader and top player in Freeman. 

 

Sorry but I really don't see any kind of contender at all with the Mets.  I just see a team going in the wrong direction, quickly, with no front office willing to reverse this trend.  I would think only the Marlins would finish behind them in the NL East this season.

 

The Mets ownership should either sell the team if they are still whining about being idiots with Madoff and boo-hoo this and that or step up and start acting like owners of a MLB team in a big market.

If healthy and that's a big IF, Mets, IMO,  will be better than the Cards, Brewers, and Rockies next year. Mets still need a lot of help in the bats and I don't think they are gonna spend for anything over 10 mil which means, Reyes will be at 2B/3B and they will sign some 4th OF to start in Conforto's place or just role with Nimmo. I think Thor stays healthy and the bullpen will be a lot better with a full season of Familia, Ramos, Swarzak. Even though I am not very high on Familia anymore. His control worries me. I think their season comes down to if Cespedes can play a full season, if Conforto doesn't have any setbacks, and if the bottom of the rotation(Harvey, Matz, Lugo, Gsellman) can pitch to their potential. I know a lot of IFs but that is why they play the games. Games aren't won on paper.

 

What I would do if I were allowed to spend money for the Coupons: Trade Lagares for another solid bullpen arm, someone like Brach. Sign Lorenzo Cain for 4 years 75 mil. Trade Lugo or Gsellman plus minor leaguer to Pirates for Harrison. Sign Addison Reed to 3 years 27 mil.

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The Mets are a little top heavy.  If deGrom and Syndergaard stay healthy,  they can keep any team in the wildcard hunt.

Harvey, Matz and the other guys can't be counted on to stay healthy or pitch effectively.  If they can,  well watch out.

 

Cespedes and Conforto on the offensive side are two studs that cannot stay healthy.  Until they do,  skepticism is warranted.

The front office should have spent some money on another bat like Mike Moustakis for 3B but they seem to be holding out hope for David Wright.

Cheap bastards !!!

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I doubt Lagares would net Brach though. BLT seems high on Hays going into next year. Brach is the present closer with a year of arbitration left.

 

Also for the 15m that insurance paid on Wright that wouldn't be taken off opening day salary which for 2018 is listed at 20m.

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4 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

I doubt Lagares would net Brach though. BLT seems high on Hays going into next year. Brach is the present closer with a year of arbitration left.

 

Also for the 15m that insurance paid on Wright that wouldn't be taken off opening day salary which for 2018 is listed at 20m.

No but they got the 15 mil back for 2017(and '15 and '16) and I understand it will be listed at 20m this year there is no way Wright plays 60 games.

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But the salary stays the same no matter if the Mets get a rebate or not wouldn't it? Don't know one way or other though.

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9 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

But the salary stays the same no matter if the Mets get a rebate or not wouldn't it? Don't know one way or other though.

Yes but the Mets arent paying the full 20 mil. They are paying 5. What they are doing with the other 15 mil is my issue

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5 hours ago, duke of queens said:

If healthy and that's a big IF, Mets, IMO,  will be better than the Cards, Brewers, and Rockies next year. Mets still need a lot of help in the bats and I don't think they are gonna spend for anything over 10 mil which means, Reyes will be at 2B/3B and they will sign some 4th OF to start in Conforto's place or just role with Nimmo. I think Thor stays healthy and the bullpen will be a lot better with a full season of Familia, Ramos, Swarzak. Even though I am not very high on Familia anymore. His control worries me. I think their season comes down to if Cespedes can play a full season, if Conforto doesn't have any setbacks, and if the bottom of the rotation(Harvey, Matz, Lugo, Gsellman) can pitch to their potential. I know a lot of IFs but that is why they play the games. Games aren't won on paper.

 

What I would do if I were allowed to spend money for the Coupons: Trade Lagares for another solid bullpen arm, someone like Brach. Sign Lorenzo Cain for 4 years 75 mil. Trade Lugo or Gsellman plus minor leaguer to Pirates for Harrison. Sign Addison Reed to 3 years 27 mil.

 

Their bottom of rotation potential at this point is nada.  Self-promoting "Batman" is a total joke.  And better than the Cards or Brewers or Rockies?  No way.  Especially the Cards that have actually been doing something this off season and are still trying to score more.

 

And Brach is the O's closer this season with Britton out half the year and probably never going to close again at the rate bad things are happening to him.  No way would Baltimore trade him for just peanuts like a Lagares.

 

Look I'm not a Mets basher.  I'd like to see their long-suffering fans get a reprieve.  But it won't be this year.  They have one superstar (deGrom) and a bunch of crossed-fingers and over-the-top imaginary hopes.  Even if Thor were healthy the regular season isn't the playoffs. You can't win the regular season wildcard spot with just 2 pitchers.   Especially on a team that can't score runs either headed by a terrible front office and sabotaged endlessly by a joke of a so-called "medical" staff.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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4 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Their bottom of rotation potential at this point is nada.  Self-promoting "Batman" is a total joke.  And better than the Cards or Brewers or Rockies?  No way.  Especially the Cards that have actually been doing something this off season and are still trying to score more.

 

And Brach is the O's closer this season with Britton out half the year and probably never going to close again at the rate bad things are happening to him.  No way would Baltimore trade him for just peanuts like a Lagares.

 

Look I'm not a Mets basher.  I'd like to see their long-suffering fans get a reprieve.  But it won't be this year.  They have one superstar (deGrom) and a bunch of crossed-fingers and over-the-top imaginary hopes.  Even if Thor were healthy the regular season isn't the playoffs. You can't win the regular season wildcard spot with just 2 pitchers.   Especially on a team that can't score runs either headed by a terrible front office and sabotaged endlessly by a joke of a so-called "medical" staff.

This is basically the same team that went to the World Series 2 years ago. How are they not better than those teams if healthy. None of those teams have a better staff. Why do u keep bringing up the medical staff, they were fired.

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Look I'm not a Mets basher.  I'd like to see their long-suffering fans get a reprieve.  But it won't be this year.  They have one superstar (deGrom) and a bunch of crossed-fingers and over-the-top imaginary hopes.  Even if Thor were healthy the regular season isn't the playoffs. You can't win the regular season wildcard spot with just 2 pitchers.   Especially on a team that can't score runs either headed by a terrible front office and sabotaged endlessly by a joke of a so-called "medical" staff.

Sheesh man I can hear Mr. Met crying from here after reading this. But I hear ya. Its not so much that I think the Mets are a stacked or deep roster its two things really -  they aren't much worse than back in 2016 when they won 87 (barring health of course) and also that there division is weak enough that it will allow the Mets the opportunity to vie for a WC. I'm not as pessimistic as you on Thor. I understand the trepidation but at the same time its not as if Mark Prior put on a blonde wig and swallowed a stick of dynamite. I'm not expecting the Mets to make the playoffs I'm just saying that I wouldn't be surprised to see them nab a WC. 

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2 hours ago, duke of queens said:

This is basically the same team that went to the World Series 2 years ago. How are they not better than those teams if healthy. None of those teams have a better staff. Why do u keep bringing up the medical staff, they were fired.

 

How can they not be better than those other teams?  Oh I don't know.  Maybe because they have gone down hill while the other teams are a lot better these days.

 

The 2016 Mets rotation was got them into the playoffs.  But now look at them.  Harvey is a sad, self-promoting joke.  Only pitchers left are deGrom and possibly Thor if he can remain healthy for over a month at a time.  Gsellman and Lugo fell back down to earth.  Matz is never going to get well is seems nor Wheeler.  You going to seriously tell me the Mets 2018 staff right now is better than a first rate 5-man rotation of Greinke, Ray, Godley, Taiwan Walker and Corbin?  Or their 1B prospect that came up (can't even remember his name) is better than Goldy?  Come on. 

 

And I like what the Cards are doing in revamping their staff.  Alex Reyes is an ace in waiting and add him to Carlos Martinez and Luke Weaver and the Redbirds are ready to rock and their overall hitting lineup is better too.

 

I can't even imagine the Mets sniffing the playoffs this season unless they suddenly go out and get a couple of top pitchers, some hitters that can actually hit like at least one of Machado or JD Martinez and a few other pieces.  The Mets hitters are overall light weights.  Asdrubal gonna carry the club on his back?  Flores?  Cespedes is the only really decent bat and he is streaky as anything.

 

But it looks like I can't sway you and you can't sway me so we will meet here again in September and see how things turn out I guess.  Again this isn't anything personal against the Mets.  I have no horse in the NL East.  And I own deGrom in two dynasty leagues and Amed Rosario in another and even have Familia in one so I hope they can do well despite their team in general.  I just don't understand how anyone could possibly be remotely optimistic about this team as a whole though.

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Look at their infield right now. I guess D'Arnaud is ok at catcher, but he will miss 40 games at the minumum. Dominic Smith is unproven and fat. No real second baseman currently. Rosario while promising didn't show much of anything with the bat last season, and his plate discipline tells me it may take some time. Third base you have Asdrubal Cabrera and Wilmer Flores, where the latter will likely make a good number of starts at first and second base. I like Flores he's fine. The outfield has two potential stars in the corners but Conforto is coming off of a shoulder dislocation and Cespedes is so tightly wound physically soft tissue injuries seem to be an assumption at this point. Lagares is a great glove and arm in center he'd be a luxury for a good hitting team. That's a brutal lineup. 

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7 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

How can they not be better than those other teams?  Oh I don't know.  Maybe because they have gone down hill while the other teams are a lot better these days.

 

The 2016 Mets rotation was got them into the playoffs.  But now look at them.  Harvey is a sad, self-promoting joke.  Only pitchers left are deGrom and possibly Thor if he can remain healthy for over a month at a time.  Gsellman and Lugo fell back down to earth.  Matz is never going to get well is seems nor Wheeler.  You going to seriously tell me the Mets 2018 staff right now is better than a first rate 5-man rotation of Greinke, Ray, Godley, Taiwan Walker and Corbin?  Or their 1B prospect that came up (can't even remember his name) is better than Goldy?  Come on. 

 

And I like what the Cards are doing in revamping their staff.  Alex Reyes is an ace in waiting and add him to Carlos Martinez and Luke Weaver and the Redbirds are ready to rock and their overall hitting lineup is better too.

 

I can't even imagine the Mets sniffing the playoffs this season unless they suddenly go out and get a couple of top pitchers, some hitters that can actually hit like at least one of Machado or JD Martinez and a few other pieces.  The Mets hitters are overall light weights.  Asdrubal gonna carry the club on his back?  Flores?  Cespedes is the only really decent bat and he is streaky as anything.

 

But it looks like I can't sway you and you can't sway me so we will meet here again in September and see how things turn out I guess.  Again this isn't anything personal against the Mets.  I have no horse in the NL East.  And I own deGrom in two dynasty leagues and Amed Rosario in another and even have Familia in one so I hope they can do well despite their team in general.  I just don't understand how anyone could possibly be remotely optimistic about this team as a whole though.

Don't get me wrong every Met fan is a pessimist including myself. I just think if healthy they have a better shot at the playoffs than the 3 teams you mentioned.  Not sure why you are bringing the Dbacks into this but if you think that's first rate than we have different opinions of first rate.

 

As for the Cards they have 1 proven starter and a mess of a bullpen. Alex Reyes is coming off a major injury and Cards can't expect him to go any more than 150 innings if he even starts the season healthy. Their lineup is decent but still unproven and they are a bad fielding team. 

 

I agree the Mets hitting is pretty bad especially with the unknown of Conforto, Rosario, Smith. But they did go into the playoffs 2 of the last 3 years with good pitching and a hot hitting Cespedes. No reason they can't do that again.

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4 hours ago, duke of queens said:

Don't get me wrong every Met fan is a pessimist including myself. I just think if healthy they have a better shot at the playoffs than the 3 teams you mentioned.  Not sure why you are bringing the Dbacks into this but if you think that's first rate than we have different opinions of first rate.

 

As for the Cards they have 1 proven starter and a mess of a bullpen. Alex Reyes is coming off a major injury and Cards can't expect him to go any more than 150 innings if he even starts the season healthy. Their lineup is decent but still unproven and they are a bad fielding team. 

 

I agree the Mets hitting is pretty bad especially with the unknown of Conforto, Rosario, Smith. But they did go into the playoffs 2 of the last 3 years with good pitching and a hot hitting Cespedes. No reason they can't do that again.

This is pretty much how I feel about the Mets too. I'm not incredibly optimistic but I just think that they have enough talent on the roster that provided they stay reasonably healthy they certainly can be in the mix for a WC spot at least. As far as the other potential NL teams in the playoffs - I'm not a believer in the D Backs or Rockies I mean I wouldn't be surprised to see them again but I'm definitely not penciling them in as a certainty. And as far as the Cards go I'm with you I'm not convinced - certainly a decent team but now that the Brewers emerged last year - we will see how their record shapes up after a long summer in what at least looks on paper at least to be a fairly competitive NL Central. Also worth mentioning that only one team in the NL East had a winning record last year so that I think should work out a lot in the Mets favor too- gotta figure there is a good amount of wins going against the Phils, Braves and especially the Marlins now. 

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No one knows jack about the Mets -- or the Wilpons' -- current financial situation.

 

They know the Wilpons took a hit in the Madoff scandal. That's it. 

 

But you don't know if the Mets are making profit, breaking even, running at a loss etc. Futher, you don't know how the Mets and the Wilpons' finances are interwined.

 

It's all just mindless speculation.

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27 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

No one knows jack about the Mets -- or the Wilpons' -- current financial situation.

 

They know the Wilpons took a hit in the Madoff scandal. That's it. 

 

But you don't know if the Mets are making profit, breaking even, running at a loss etc. Futher, you don't know how the Mets and the Wilpons' finances are interwined.

 

It's all just mindless speculation.

How much they supposedly lost is not clear either. All I know is they are not fit to own a team in NY if they can't afford to be in the top 10 in payroll. 

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